So you are saying I should be spending more money on wine?
That has been my take away from this thread so far.
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You bring up an interesting point.
I was speaking with a trade friend yesterday who thinks there is going to be a lot of deals popping up in the next few months. With new vintages coming out, I think there will be some deals on 21 Bordeaux and Burgundy, along with who knows whatever else that someone is sitting on.
Could be an interesting time as a consumer.
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2021s aren’t my favorites but maybe we will also see deals on remaining stocks of 2020s and/or 2019s.
How is GDP affected by inflation, I wonder 
at the end of the day what really matters is people’s aiblity to spend, and there can be no shadow of a doubt that people are poorer now than they were a few years ago.
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Yes, the measure Neal cited is “real” GDP, i.e., net of inflation. The same report indicated that “real” disposable personal income increased 1.0%.
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whats the aggregated impact of the last 3 years though?
My net personal takeaway from all this is
(1) I expect some softening the next couple years in the mid and lower priced wines, including ones we WBers drink. As far as WBer wines, that may take more the form of selective deals and clearances (eg 30% off plus free shipping for a case, or more great Bordeaux and other deals appearing at Costco) than just literally lowering sticker prices. Plus I don’t expect YOY list price increases much for wines released the next couple years. I think the $59 Oregon or California pinot will probably stay at $59 for awhile, even as the high cost of labor and materials makes the price points tougher for the small producer.
(2) But I’m less sure about the trophies and very expensive bottles since I think that class of buyer is still doing very well. Those may flatten out and some individual ones may back up, but I don’t really expect that the C Bouchards and Gonons that soared out of my price range to come anywhere near back into it, or that I’m going to find myself taking a hard look at Dujac or Leflaive.
I’m no expert at all, but it’s just what I can make sense of all the information we’ve been digging through, and trying to filter out the obviously politically-motived talking points from both sides.
It’s been a great time for wine consumers for a few years now - other than really high end stuff. But yep, there will be deals to be had at all levels in the near future. The real question - will folks ‘back up the truck’ as they may have done a few years ago or are the cellars of most folks already full?
Cheers
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That’s definitely a struggle. I buy and own WAAAYYY too much, and yet at the same time, I have little willpower when it comes to great buying opportunities like Berserkerday (thus, my having way too much wine).
Speaking of Berserkerday, if my sense of things crudely articulated above is correct, that could be a pretty flashy event in 2025 and 2026.
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That’s what I wonder too. I think there may be several rounds of price cuts. Buying “right away” may not be wise. Waiting it out will probably be wiser.
Cellar is full, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t buy a great deal if I really want the wine. My situation is unique to me. We are moving in the next 6-9 months so buying and moving wine isn’t super appealing to me.
All of this does beg the question - and perhaps someone can come up with a poll - regarding folks current cellar situation and why or why not they would purchase more. There would need to be some caveat as far as how big a cellar or ‘collection’ they already have, etc
Just something to consider
It’s an interesting question, but I’m not really sure how well a poll would capture it. It would depend on the wines and the extent of the discount how much someone would be enticed to add to a full cellar. For the right wine at the right price, almost any of us would go after it.
Also, I think people would answer with their heads (“I don’t need more wine”) but when the time comes might buy with their hearts (“How can I pass up Wine A at that price?”).
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I’m not seeing that. Literally everything I buy, or would like to buy, is more expensive now than it was 1, 2, or 5 years ago. That includes what used to be relatively affordable wines, like some very good Sancerre producers, mid-range burgundy of course (i’m essentially priced out of everything), even low end Bourgogne have doubled or more.
Yes, fortunately I have a full cellar, way more than I need in fact, so don’t “need” to buy anything. But I still buy a little here and there 
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Yep. There is a long way to go to come down from Covid era inflation PLUS Inflation era inflation.
It will be interesting to see what actual sectors see real sorts of ‘back up the truck’ discounting and which just sort of plateau for a while and sit on shelves a bit longer than normal.
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My uninformed guess is that most of it will sit around and plateau (they won’t want to surrender their price point if at all possible), but there will be selective clearouts. At Berskerday, at retail, in an email blast to mailing list customers, etc.
You’ll look up one day, and some $50 wine you like will be clearing out at Wine Exchange for $24.99, or the winery will be emailing its customers offering a case purchase at 50% off, or you’ll see it at Costco for cheap.
I assume that you know that in the past 60 years, the US has experienced deflation twice: the Great Recession and in 2015, when the CPI barely broke below 0% at −0.1%. Positively vertiginous.
So yeah, everything you buy is more expensive than it was because that is the way it has worked, forever and ever, from the beginning of time and until the end of the earth.
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There’s already softening in the upper end market. Setting aside one of one wines, lots of top end premium Burgs have seen 10-20% softening in retail and auction.
Not really. Over the last 60 years sure. But not even over the entire history of the US, let alone over all human history. Inflation and deflation have occurred for different reasons at different times. However, there’s also a big difference between nominal inflation year over year barely above zero and drastic inflation like we’ve seen the past few years.
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