I’d have to hunt a bit to find the data, but, generally, prices for consumer packaged goods never really came down after the pandemic spike. That’s a generalized statement, and maybe certain categories that are commodities and subject to market flux, like fruits and veggies, have dropped, as a general matter, manufacturers didn’t drop prices as inflation came down and supply chains normalized.
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No they went to shrinkflation.
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I’m just out of the primary market game to really know how much prices may have come down on spirits, I just know that sales have cooled off, and that if you aren’t a commodity or volume brand, sales are really tough for spirits.
But on the other hand, there was a 25% buffer that was in there for spirits from most European countries since the tariffs were removed. I know prices didn’t drop right away…
For Bourbon I think what we are more likely to see rather than lower prices is better product. When bourbon was white hot producers dropped age statements and used source material without disclosure as to the origin.
As all these recent barrels come into their aging window I hope that we start getting 12 yr old barrels on the bottom shelf again. At a minimum hopefully at least enough production where one doesn’t have to camp outside liquor stores to score a bottle since the secondary market may mostly evaporate.
I fear the opposite reaction e.g. macallan. Drop quality to expand volume, and never come back… granted many of these may not have the brand to do the same level of duty free expansion, etc
We are living in that era now. Dropped age statements and premium prices for questionable sourcing.
There are millions of new barrels that will be coming on board in the next ~5 years and recent plans for more have been scrapped.
I imagine it’s tough to predict what you will need 6 to 12 years ahead.
I think the diehard buyers know this, and are turning their backs on those brands.
It’s evident they are trying to cash in on dollars, and not quality.
That’s going to be an interesting dilemma for Buffalo Trace.
They are about 18 months in to their new production still, which effectively doubled their capacity. Their production was increased in the range of 50%.
What are they going to do with all that capacity? Lots of new rickhouses to fill too.
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Supply hopefully forces retailers to level off margins and sell closer to MSRP. BT at $24.99 is a value, at $39.99+ not so much.
Same issues Rittenhouse and so many others went thru when it was “allocated”.
I am a big fan still of Macallan SO expressions although 18 year+ SO have gotten really expensive. There are certainly a lot more profiles for consumers with DO, TO, Rare, etc…to choose from.
Macallan 18 is fine, but not nearly worth the price, and 99% of Macallan labeled products are utter crap.
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My memory isn’t perfect, but I seem to remember the pre-Covid Pappy 15 price around ~$1500 secondary? Seems like a lot of luxury goods had a huge spike during Covid, but then are returning to more ‘normal’ levels. I’ve been noticing this with watches. I guess the point I’m trying to maybe things are returning to ‘normal’.
I’m getting Bunnahabhain 18 yr old locally for $170.
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If my memory isn’t failing me, it was around $1800-$2000 in 2019.
There are others that have fallen much harder, but it’s strange since Pappy has been such a gold standard for the category.
Sazerac makes a lot more money selling Fireball than anything else. Pappy is more of a marketing tool than a revenue driver. I don’t think they will have a problem selling the extra production since they can just reallocate whiskey to their high volume products.
If recent developments are any indication, I am expecting an upswing in the consumption of bubbly. I know that ".s had two bottles in the past week or so. 
How do you reallocate millions of gallons of Canadian “Whisky” that isn’t made to taste like WhiskEy into something high end? It’s made to taste like a neutral grain spirit, but be called Whiskey.
The base of Fireball is worthless, well except in Said Fireball.
I mean they can dump product down a rung or two (if higher-end bourbon sales slow, take spirit, age less, and use for lower-end product), not that they can use the spirit for fireball as higher-end product.
[quote=“Robert_M_yers, post:619, topic:321971, full:true”]
How do you reallocate millions of gallons of Canadian “Whisky” that isn’t made to taste like WhiskEy into something high end? It’s made to taste like a neutral grain spirit, but be called Whiskey.
The base of Fireball is worthless, well except in Said Fireball.
Class action suit from 2023. The minis just say Cinnamon now.
[/ Those 99-cent, mini bottles of Fireball Cinnamon don’t actually contain whiskey – and a [class-action lawsuit](https:
//www.classaction.org/media/marquez-v-sazerac-company-inc.pdf) filed earlier this month is accusing Fireball’s maker, Sazerac Company, Inc., of misleading consumers.
Unlike the original, whiskey-based Fireball Cinnamon Whisky, Fireball Cinnamon products “include malt-based and wine-based alcoholic beverages,” according to the Fireball’s website.
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Maybe wineries can keep prices the same but sell in 500ml bottles. 
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