Have the deals dried up? have we hit the bottom?

Even though I am technically in a buying freeze, I can’t help but wonder if we have seen the bottom of the deals we were getting used to already? Where is the Shafer 1.5s for $39? or the '06 Pahlmeyer for $69? I think now that a good many of the 2007 Napa Cabs are out, we might not see the action we all enjoyed in the last 18 or so months. I sense the leveling off of the pricing, and the trend upward (Which certainly has already started). Watching WineBid over the last 3 months or so, I can see the same movement, whereas before many wines went weeks with no action, now names like Karl Lawrence go fast. 3 months ago there was tons of Realm, now just 3 or 4 bottles. (I know because I bought them all). pileon
I know I specifically speak Napa, so feel free to add your input for your area of buying.

Another example:
Arnot-Robert Hudson Syrah for $30

I don’t think so…maybe fewer at auction, but probably not retail…

While I don’t have specific examples since most go right into the email trash or in one eye/out the other, based on the 75-100 wine related emails that I get per week, I could easily spend $25,000+ per week buying wines that are both “deals” and wines that I would want to have/drink…some are just very good prices (discounted 10-20% relatively to that vintage or prior vintages) and some are incredible prices (discounted 20-70%) on bottles from $15-$1,000…needless to say, I show a lot of restraint and have been trying not to purchase…hmm, could probably spend $25,000 alone on wines from the Premier Cru offers…if I happened to have the money and inclination (which I clearly don’t), I bet I’d be buying at a $100-200,000 per month rate with everything relatively priced advantaged in comparison to general retail pricing of that vintage or prior vintages.

In Wash. I really haven’t seen any screamming deals or any panic.Though a few of the top tier wineries don’t sell out as quickly, if at all, like they used to.The number of new wineries has slowed,though a few still show up from time to time.

They pop up less frequently these days but when they do they are still pretty interesting. I just bought five bottles of Mugnier Moose for well bellow market.

Offered to me today:

2005 Beringer PR in 375: $249 a case ($499 mags)
2003 "
2004 Ch St. jean 5 cepage in 375: $149 a case
2005 Etude cab: in 750 $549 a case

free shipping. I am unfortunately not allowed to forward the link, or I would.

I think the deals are just getting better in the areas where I buy from - France and Italy. In particular when it comes to wines with a few years of age.

First round has been pretty much flushed out. BUT, I am telling a lot of nervous California guys this: “My friend Ed Pagor (local winemaker) says there is a line where ‘We’ll take $36 a case for it…’ suddenly becomes ‘I have to PAY $6 a case to get it hauled away and recycled???’…”

If the deals are drying up, then folks are going to end up going out of business. There is SOOOOOOOO much freaking wine out there, it’s insane.
Everyone has something they are stuck with, and LOTS of it. I mean lots. Big name places too. Don’t want to say too much as I’m sure wineries wouldn’t be happy if I posted their inventories, but I’ve heard some scary figures.

Ian, which wines are you talking about? Napa, CA in general, others? Just curious…

Somewhat global (lots of Italian deals for sure), but figured this was more of a Cali discussion.
I have seen plenty (and from really well known guys too). One of the deals we would have bought in an instant (DIRT cheap for this brand), was actually sold with the explicit instructions of being sold outside the US. I think it went to a cruise line.

Ian, I was waiting for you to chime in with good news!

Yes, I know, but an outgoing tide lowers all boats, and I’m just wondering what effect CA oversupply is having on the rest of the world. Always on the lookout for bargain, too (and Napa is not my style).

There are no deals or much availabilty on several '07. Also very allocated. Wines we’ve been able to get a fair amount of in the past, now we’re talking a couple cases. Most of the past vintages of wines that are not big production are long gone here or are being dealt thru places that can move in huge quantities.

Nope, I could have bought the 06 Jasmin Cote Rotie today for $39.99. That’s amazing for a great Cote Rotie that most domestic syrahs only dream of being at $60+!

The wine market has become totally bifurcated with the top wines going through the roof and everything else languishing at various stages in the pipeline. Plenty of deals still to come for those wines.

Veeery interesting. Please keep us posted!

No let up as far as I can tell. In fact, it seems as if harvest and the need to make room for more wine has led to a recent push from domestic producers.

Yep I agree. I thought I would se alot more deals on 06 Frenchies. I’m suprised a deal was found on Freddy Moose. What vintages may I ask ? Also that deal on Jasmin was for only a few bottles if the same one I saw.

2007 . . .

I rarely see deals on '06 French.

I’m also surprised at that. I’ve seen a few deals (none recently), but even the BDX deals were like 20% off from the far over-inflated original prices. Nothing like a screaming deal. I can’t help but think they are yet to come and that someone out there is sitting on enormous stocks of the stuff that will have to be moved at some point. But, then again, the higher end Bordelais and negociants have made so much money over the past decade that they may be able to absorb the carrying costs of holding back wine for a long time.

I think Jon Rimmerman talked about several of the Bordelais thinking the 06 vintage was going to turn out to be very good in the long run. But, I couldn’t help but think that sounded like someone sitting on a bunch of wine they needed to move.

I’ve scored some nice (but, again, not spectacular) deals on some white Burgs.

I have plenty of wine, so I’m just playing the wait and see game at this point, but logic tells me there have to be more to come unless the world economy really picks up.

Chris