I guess I should also be clear that I don’t think the issues in the wine market are necessarily “fixable.” I think a large part of the decline in wine buying and consumption are part of larger societal trends of changing tastes and lower alcohol consumption. So I’m not so sure that things like dropping restaurant wine prices can really change that larger trend. As a wine lover, I wish that were different since I want the industry to thrive, but I think most of the broader market and societal trends aren’t positive for the wine industry. I will continue to support the producers I like in the hopes they will do well. But I think there are broader changes that can’t be fixed by altering pricing, abolishing the three tier system, etc.
I was briefly in the wine industry from 1987-1993. When I entered the wine industry modernization in winemaking, more interest in food and fine dining, and wine critics Robert Parker were transforming the industry. They were boom years (actually boom decades). I think 40 years later tastes and attitudes about wine and alcohol are changing and there are no easy answers to bring those boom years back. I wish (hope?) I’m wrong.
Supply and Demand for wine is out of balance. There are still probably thousands of acres of grapes that need to be bulldozed.
This is no different than the current huge imbalances with corn, soybeans, and wheat. Many of the farmers have no way to turn a profit with current input prices with current commodity prices. This is especially the case with leased ground. Some of the banks are already telling the farmers not to expect new loans on operations not turning profits. A lot of Lower productive leased land may sit idle next year.
Vanity vineyards and wineries owned by the millionaires and billionaires will survive. Others will require some hard reckoning.
On-premise is less than a quarter of U.S. wine sales, right? This thread seems to be focusing a lot on the issue being restaurant pricing, but that can’t be most of it.
I’m a pretty dyed-in-the-wool wine nut, and I almost never buy wine at restaurants and bars. That was even more true when I was in my 20s.
Understood but on premise sales are the gateway drug. Many if not, most of us got started on this journey out to dinner with somebody who introduced us to the concept of better wine. Then we graduated to the ranks of people who purchased the other 75%, especially the premium wines.
The cost of dining in general has risen exponentially over the last five years. And the availability of mine is much greater now than it was when you were younger - and that has made a huge impact in whether folks purchase wine at restaurants these days or not . . .
I think that fact is something that truly honestly needs to be taken into consideration.
Sort of disagree with this because lots of us had entry to loving wine through cheap wine. In my early 20s, I drank wine all the time, and it was probably something like a $8 bottle of Rosemount Shiraz or a $10 Columbia Crest Cab Sav. Those wines tasted GREAT to me. They are engineered to taste pristine.
A bottle of The Prisoner probably would have blown me away.
Everyone’s gateway or epiphany is going to be different. I never needed a high-end wine to hook me.
I’m not convinced this is that significant either. You can just as easily be introduced to good wine by a friend over dinner (or just drinks!) at their house.
I believe the key is a large selection of BTG and somewhat knowledgeable people to serve it. An impediment to this is the cost of a storage system for a large number of open bottles. How many bars/restaurants even cork and refrigerate open bottles overnight?
I was in Napa Valley and Sonoma Valley the past couple days and saw so many vineyards with fruit still on the vines. Most of these were vineyards of independent winegrowers, probably didn’t get contracts to sell their fruit from the excess supply in the market. All wineries I visited had their fruit off of the vines.
Maybe our definition of nice wine lists differs, but I rarely see a list where 75% of the wines are even approaching maturity, let alone museum pieces. The same holds true if the criterion is price, not age.
I agree with all the negative comments about restaurant pricing, but I also agree with Larry and Ben that the answer isn’t there. Restaurants are not the gateway drug for most. Friends and family are. Most sales and most drinking is off-premises. Most of my wine buds got into it because of an eye-opening experience that happened in someone’s home or at a store tasting.
Prices have to drop to draw more people in, along with marketing that potrays moderate drinking in a less negative light.
Reduced pricing means some producers will go under.
I don’t know how effective marketing will be combatting the current pendulum swing with respect to the relative importance of alcohol’s negative health effects. The pendulum will swing back at some point.
I have to ask. Are there any wineries that make truly superior wines that are in financial trouble? How about wineries that provide really good QPR?
If you cannot provide lists of wines in either of these categories that are going out of business, why should be care? Is it any different from a mediocre restaurant that goes out of business, or mediocre other types of businesses that go out of business.
In fact, my guess is that there are many more restaurants that have closed for economic reasons that I care more about their closing than a lot of the wineries having financial issues.
Yeah! F those other people that liked that restaurant! I didn’t!
Seriously, I agree some of this can boil down to the market becoming more efficient, but the contraction could end up wiping out some that you do care about, and is impacting real people.
thanks Larry
‘Gatorwine’ hilarious!!!