Current state of wine market

Saw this posted earlier today.

Is this even right?

Gen Z spans people born in 1997 until 2012.

So less than half of them are actually of legal age to drink. (your birthdate would need to be today, 2004, or older to legally buy alcohol).

All of those other generations are of legal drinking age across the board. Highly misleading.

The fact that Millennials are outspending Gen X is a healthy sign though.

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Thought this might be interesting even if related to French - In a newsletter a French retailer among other shared that “in 2024, over 1,000 wine shops out of 6,000 in France have closed their doors”.

Quite a shake up and I given the challenges I mentioned for another retailer (at least I believe I did) with need of liquidity in short, I can only imagine that 2025 will prove to be another challenging year for French retailers.

Considered posting this too. Couldn’t find any statistics on this number anywhere, but for other reasons I do believe them;
Have been cold called twice now by a caviste I shopped at, if I was interested in making an order. First time that has happened…

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It wasn’t too long ago that Nicolas (the big chain wine store) announced they were cutting prices on quite a few wines with mention of declining sales. Le caviste Nicolas baisse drastiquement ses prix pour se relancer - La Revue du vin de France

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I was in doubt if I should post it before verifying as well, but after the reach out from the other caviste I quoted earlier on, competitor going bust, and with a similar sentiment and desperation (at least that’s what I read between the lines) - I thought it was worthwhile sharing nonetheless.

Even a cold call…

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do owe know the source ? I doubt Millenials outspend Gen X. First what is the total population of each group ? Also millennials IMO spend less per beverage .

Says it on the bottom, US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Aren’t there a lot more Millenials than Gen X though? EDIT- Millennial is the largest generation, so yes.

Right? Sure.
Meaningless? Yes again.

As posted above, it ignores the fact that the size of each population differs and that many Gen Zers haven’t yet reached drinking age.

Adjust the data to reflect per capita expenditures by those of drinking age if you want to look at whether the younger generation is less inclined to spend money on alcohol.

Add the issue of income, disposable income, and accumulated wealth disparities between generations. Hard to spend money you don’t have unless you’re a sovereign entity or a good con.

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Looking ahead to HDH the next two days, what are people’s sense of the auction market? I’m specifically looking at second growth level Bordeaux from recent vintages (2016-2020) and a few second tier (non Conterno/Capp/Burlotto Barolos). These would be for me to drink, not for any investment potential. I’m wondering if now is a good time to get some deals or whether I can sit back and grab these types of wines at similar or lower prices in the future. Would really love to hear from @Ian_Dorin and @Mark_Golodetz who seem to watch auctions closely. TIA.

@Nathan_V in general it seems like prices on higher end Italian wine have been sliding the last year or two. My guess is that you’ll get pretty good deals at HDH this week on the likes of Vietti, Sandrone and Cavallotto. Conterno, Cappellano, Giacosa, Roagna have also been pretty soft lately tbh. Predicting the future direction of prices … I have no clue and I wouldn’t believe anyone who said they did.

That’s been my experience selling Barolo and Barbaresco over the last six months or so. Unsurprisingly, Giacosa held the strongest, especially for top vintages. Even G Rinaldi wasn’t especially strong. Cappellano was OK. Some lesser names were pretty weak and I almost regretted letting them go for what they fetched.

I dumped some BDX like VCC too. Happy with what I got but it seemed pretty soft even though I don’t really follow that market.

Last 4 month data on wine sales out of Distributor by division. Not so rosy.

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Italy is tough. It’s taken a pretty big slide, and I don’t think it’s done.

We’ve started to see Bordeaux turn a corner though. I think if you bid with the idea of going low, and scooping up good deals, that’s a smart move. I would just absentee bid.

I think it’s safe to say the majority posting or reading here are from the US and obviously European wine makes up a good bit of consumption amongst this group. I’ve seen talk of tariffs but don’t recall anyone mentioning the recent sinking USD which is now at a four-year low against the euro and off about 15%, or slightly more if you count the brief dip below parity in 2022. Importers don’t adjust pricing on every tick but if the fx stays here or especially if the dollar continues to slip, importers will be forced to raise regardless of potential tariff changes.

Let’s just say wine consumption will be more local, as it probably should be

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I’m actually getting even lower offers right now because everyone acknowledges the sinking dollar and tariffs making everything 25% more expensive. They wouldn’t be doing this if sales were booming. Retailers everywhere are hurting. Allocated wines offered at 25% less than last year, which still comes out cheaper for me all in.

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I can’t really argue with that even though I also can’t really define where the dividing line is when it comes to local. Historically I’ve consumed about 99% +/- European wines as well as that ratio making up the percentage that I sold as a distributor. It was mainly due to style preference as well as what I consider generally better pricing. Over the past maybe 6-7 years it seems to me like European wines have outpaced price increases vs US wines, at least in the US market and I think there’s now some good competition from the US in terms of both style and price in certain areas. I’ve been pretty happy with some Oregon whites in the $25-50 range lately.

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Very rare for me to buy a Euro wine
Always like the specialty wine like an Amarone or Verdicchio
Sometimes a Spanish white or Sparkling
Maybe an Argentinian wine occasionally
The west coast of the US has everything and in abundance
All good

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What makes Verdicchio a ‘specialty wine’, in comparison to all the other Italian grapes?

Also, while the west coast of the US definitely has a wide range of wines, they will never have Burgundy!

And don’t forget, for people who live on the East Coast of the US, Europe is not any further or less ‘local’ than CA or OR.

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