Current state of wine market

Berserkerday?

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Yes, Friday BD17 !! and Thursday for killer Monopole Cru offers (and also early viewing for the Cru)

Not typically where I’m buying wine but I’ll be vividly reading the offers.

Man, if this was the early days of WCWN Russell would be here in full “Hulk Smash” mode. Ahh, the river of time…

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I’ve also seen their bottlings at multiple Northern California Costco warehouses.

Maybe a better move would have been to tie allocations of the 100-point wine to accepting some amount of the slower moving lineup?

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that could have been a play. He has new investment partners in Bevan Cellars; I would assume they want to see some ROI and maybe offered up their two cents

All Monday Morning QB from a very far distance with no practical knowledge of his business dealings. To me, just seemed odd “given the state of the current wine industry”

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In many ways, I think it’s the real small wineries that are bootstrapped, don’t have a lot of overhead and are a bit scrappy that will weather this storm the best.

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I’ll play here - because it is simply too expensive, and leads to wines that are too expensive.

I’ve definitely seen the ‘average consmer’ pick up bottles of Paso cab instead of Napa, and been fine with them. Now we are not talking the handful of Napa cabs made by folks who are moving away from the modern style of richer and ‘more polished’ cabs.

Cheers

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Hear hear - as long as you can maintain decent cash flow and not overextend . . .

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Same with WA State over Napa…no comparison when it comes to pricing vs quality ratio, esp on the higher end. WA can make world class Cabernet at $50-100 a bottle all day long.

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But it’s not Napa . . .

I think Paso is excelling for a few reasons - 1) richer and riper style, similar to the ‘preferred’ style that many prefer these days and 2) lots of Napa producers are sourcing grapes from Paso now.

Cheers

i’d agree, and say it’s also a market advantageous to those who have a good story to tell that resonates. If i can buy 10 different bottles of cab at $50 a bottle, where is there a personal connection, or compelling story that emotionally gets me to pull the trigger and buy again? Scrappy underdog, mom and pop, or idealistic individuals out to shake it up resonate more for me personally than a palatable label amongst many under a corporation.

Also who can connect with the consumer? I think as Todd notes, getting to have a personal connection with a winemaker and a brand is what drives business, as long as the wine is honest and good.

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Larry;

While I understand the economics for those that recently paid astronomical prices for wineries or land, the valley is still full of growers/wineries that have owned their vineyards for decades. How low could Montelena or a host of old line Silverado Trail vineyards go without missing a payment or a meal. Outside of ego, what could Beckstoffer sell his fruit, in dire times, for and laugh all the way to the bank. I wonder what the cost per ton , all in , for Constellation fruit bought from Mondavi?

Other than ego, I believe a lot of Napa fruit can be cost competitive with anyone if push comes to shove.

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Maybe that’s what’s wrong with the market? Too much richer/riper that’s preferred by a possibly shinking group of consumers that don’t feel like paying +$200/bottle…

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This thread is always interesting, but so much of this boils down to production not being matched up with consumption.

This is an bottle of wine that is only available either if a) someone is lying about what’s actually in the bottle.

b) there is way too much wine being produced.

In 2020, smoke tainted bulk Oregon Pinot Noir was being sold for $25-35 gallon.

Currently, 2023 a vintage that a lot of people in the Willamette Valley think is one of their best vintages ever. Bulk wine can be had for $5-8/gallon. Some of it apparently wine rated 96 points by Decanter…

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Probably a lot of shiners out there.

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The floor price for Napa Cabernet is too high. Leaving out the ever rising prices of the top wines, but when things like Artemis and Chappellet are getting close to $100, it’s a problem for the market.

It’s a confluence of events that has caused this. I don’t think it’s a question of quality.

When you can buy 100-point Montrose for $200 (or even a little less), and things like Spottswoode/Dominus/Insignia are closing in on $100 more per bottle, something is really wrong.

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Go a step further back- there’s a ton of wine in tank. They aren’t bottling it to not have to endure the cost.

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I’ve been consolidating my wine collection as it’s grown too large and put multiple cases on the market. All my wines for sale (span multiple regions) have had bids but I’ve seen zero bids for any of my Oregon / California wines including Domaine De La Cote, Kelley Fox. Seems very little demand for those wines on secondary market in UK/ HK which has surprised me. My NZ, Australian and Spanish wines have had far more love relative. I’ve literally had bids on everything else, but those US wines from what I consider decent estates have just sat. It’s a factual observation.

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On a different note, some of our distributors are taking some positive moves. Several are dramatically lowering minimum order levels. Not mentioning names, but those sitting in their ivory towers in NYC obviously couldn’t grasp that jacking the minimum up to $500 wasn’t a good plan. We just eliminated brands and substituted another wine with different distributors. $500 became $300, and if you don’t quite make $300, we still want the order! :shushing_face:. Others are following suit, reducing their mins even lower.

I always wondered the reasoning behind driving 150 miles from their warehouse to hit the Kroger down the street, but not fulfilling our $300 order.