Petronius has some mention of this in The Satyricon, serving up"Falernian of Opimius’ vintage, one hundred years old." It wasn’t really to say that this particular wine was great, but that it was perceived as “fine wine” because of its age and origin and so the new rich lapped it up with glee.
Submitted another large batch of not-too-old bottles today to auction, primarily Bordeaux, with meaningful numbers of rioja, napa and italian. Man if there are buyers out there, now is 100% the time to buy. So many amazing wines selling at 25%+ off release price, especially cult Napa wines. Wondering how much further down these wines will go… 100% bitter pill to swallow, I had convinced myself that I can always sell if I bought too much and not have to worry about meaningful depreciation. that obviously didn’t work out!
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Feel like most cult Napa wines shouldn’t have even been that expensive to begin with and things will only continue. Don’t see demographic nor economic trends helping either so I wouldn’t be surprised to see flat to negative pricing for the medium term future (especially with Napa )
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I agree. I think there was kind of an asset bubble in those, and pricing needs to reset much lower in general. A lot of the newer and lesser-known ones will probably just fall away.
Related question for those in the know: the price of Napa cab and the price of Napa vineyard real estate kind of egged each other on up. What is happening now with Napa vineyard prices? What do you think is going to happen with those prices in the coming few years?
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The U.S. has a huge real estate bubble that will pop in the next couple years. Not only many private properties, commercial properties, farm land, but wineries also. It’ll make 07-08 look mild. Only a limited number of millionaires will only take on vanity winery projects. When that number runs out, grab your shorts!
Then when the bottom falls out of property evaluations, watch the effects of the fallout on property taxes.
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I’d like to agree with your last point, but went to a tasting where I saw some eye popping prices for wines that were not up to the quality that I was tasting. Folks were buying too.
My concern is lined up with your point about demographic and economic trends. If the bubble isn’t there yet, will it be, and when?
I think if we see big price drops, it will be folks that are folding or selling their property.
Doomers gonna doom
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And Revue du vin de France just had an article about French somms/restos essentially being forced to add non alcoholic wines as well as teas and kombucha to their programs to offset the decline in revenue from standard wine.
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Curious to see where this goes, but there was something I read this morning that this is the canary in the coal mine for the fate of tariffs. Obviously would be a huge win to get rebates, I’m just hoping to not pay any new tariffs!
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In first class, good wine is free. Air France actually save money with kombucha. I am quite sure that Cave de Tain Hermitage (which I know is served in first class) costs more per ounce than the kombucha.
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The market is very soft in Europe as well. Last week I took part in an auction in Zurich, and many lots were sold below their minimum estimates. One lot in particular caught my attention: an OWC of Mugnier ’17, 2 bottles of Bonnes Mares, 2 of Amoureuses, and 2 of Les Fuées. The estimate ranged between 4,500 and 7,200 Swiss francs. It was sold for 3,600 francs. Until a year ago, this would have been unthinkable.
Another thing I noticed is that a major distributor here in Switzerland now has wines openly available on its online shop that, until just a few months ago, you practically had to beg for, given how highly allocated they were.
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Driving along hwy 12 between Sonoma and Santa Rosa, saw several larger vineyards that had been ripped out, stacked and ready to burn. And a pretty decent size vineyard with fruit still hanging in December, so obviously not being picked.
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wow. money for nothing get your Fuees for free.
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Wine market in dire straits
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Still waiting to see if there will be stats of vineyards not picked but not ripped out this past harvest . . .
I have also heard rumors that another 40-60K acres will be ripped out in CA from Aug 2025 - Aug 2026 - I guess we will see . . .
Cheers
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And another data point - and yes, most of these are wine based:
Cheers
I wonder if the commercials of beatbox would be materially worse if there wasn’t a glut of bulk grapes. Seems like a decent time to exit.
Sipsource thru October 2025; 12mo Rev % Change
On bright side Turkey Wednesday had store visits up 5.8% vs 2024 and prior week visits up 5.1% with value grocery leading the way followed by traditional grocery. Specilaty and Fresh Format were up too, just less.
In other news Kearney sees consumers becoming more frugal or selective in their mindset re. spending with topics finishing high in the Q3 survey like “went out to eat less or at cheaper restaurants” and “shopped at dollar/discount stores more” and “cut back on going out for entertainment”.
There’s little doubt that the average consumer (aka non-asset wealthy individual) is feeling the acute pains of the past few years of inflation in their day to day budgeting.
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If any doubt head over to the Cam Xeiomi thread for proof
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