All 2008 Pauillac I had not long ago were babies IMO. GPL, Duhart, PLL and Baron. That Latour is accessible surprises me because this wine is normally the snail in terms of development. Maybe different tastes. To me even the good 1996 Pauillac are young.
So, does this 2nd release cut out the negociant?
I assume in the past, wineries needed the negociants for steady cash flow. Maybe with the dramatic rise in prices for the highly regarded wines, they’ve been able to self finance the whole process and thus keep the negociant margin along with taking advantage of releasing significant quantities of wine later at a much higher price and thus more profit? Seems smart and maybe something that could have been done many years ago with the proper financing.
I also wonder if they’re selling through the normal negociant system. I’m surprised that avoiding the whole thing hasn’t become more common among well known, high quality estates.
Assuming that someone was me, that’s not what I told you. I said that the chateau on the Place de Bordeaux only sell through the negociant system. They DO NOT sell direct to stores.
They can and do consign wine to auction houses. That is not the same thing. Retail is not the suction market.
As of today, all sales from Latour are through the negociant system. Latour has a relatively small production and if they chose, they could probably skip the system, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth.
FWIW, chances are high that in 2020, Latour will offer their 2012 vintage. 2012 Latour was the first vintage big offered as a future from Latour.
Well, we clearly misunderstood each other:
No worries - there are always exceptions to any rule, especially when the auction house also retails.
From my limited experience as I am not wine investor but have stumbled across some amazing returns accidently then cashed in of course AFTER I had tried them at full maturity. one of my best stories was driving an hour and twenty minutes each way and spending 20 minute with a friend who sold me wines at very low prices a bit below market on wines that had auctions closing in the middle of the night or on Christmas day when nobody was on line.
I recall vividly paying @ $150 for 3 bottles of 2002 Chateau Latour an excellent wine but not perfect like the 2000 2 years earlier. About a year ago the lowest price in the USA was $700 and climbing fast. Moist have unknown provenance so have some risk. I bought mine a year or two after release from my friend and he would verify that if necessary. Thye have sat in my temp controlled cellar at 54 and they have not been touched for 15 years and I could provide photos of my cellar and my house. In another 10 years I will sell it as I have tried it twice and it was pretty darn good but not amazing like the 1988 Salon I had the other night that made my eyes bug out or the 78 Leflaive or the 1975 Marthas Heitz at the same dinner at an expensive offline but they were all procured at way below current values when the wines were way too young to enjoy. If I get run over by a truck tonight I will not complain as life has been good to me !
I think the point has been made several times in this thread that the price of top Burgundies and First Growth lately have been rising to a point where it is hard to see these levels being sustained. I am expecting this bubble is about to burst, too many warning signs. The Chinese economy which accounts for a huge amount of the increase and wine sales in general, is having real problems, and there is everybody possibility of recession here. I am beginning to get rid of wines where I think the cost and value bear little relation to one another.
I do hope, Jonathan, that your 2002 Latour will be worth more when you get to sell it, where I doubt whether they can go up much more, but it is hard to see it going up much from here. If I were you, I would be looking to sell now and find something you really like. Then if the market does tank, at least you will be left with something you really wanted.
“The market has peaked.” are the words which stuck with me about high end wines after a conversation with a senior account manager at a major auction house two weeks ago.
Well this is only my experience in Paris, so not a generalization, but for high-end Bordeaux, the market is definitely stagnant at best. It’s true for the 1st growths but not only - many previously trendy 09s have come down in price. For example, Léoville-Poyferré 2009, which peaked in 2017 at 216€, is currently selling for 165€. When you remove the buyer’s premium, then the seller’s, that gives only 127€ to the seller - just 10€ more than the EP price. SHL is another faller, down to around 112€ net. I’ve no doubt the 09s will rise again, likewise that the 2015s and 2016s will prove sound long-term investments, but I would certainly think carefully about EP 2018.
Mark you are absolutely right this is just like the stock market and the housing bubble which seemed to go straight up and at the end still people getting in to join the party and then crash and burn. I recall the housing bubble either late 90s or maybe 2002 when a friend who sold Mercedes had bought a house credit card for a 10. 000 or 15,000 down payment then bam like 3 or months later made quick 25 or 30 thousand. Of course a year or two later came the collapse and I am sure he lost at least triple his gains.
I would recommend people either buy gold 20 pieces in MS 65 or real estate in desirable locations that have stable economy huge tourism business with white sand beaches low priced real estate. Also most notably Low Taxes !! The US is the king of wasting the taxpayers money. I am in the process of buying a luxurious 3500 sq foot home with a huge backyard pool area and a gourmet restaurant tennis courts on a Robert Trent Jones Golf course with views of the Ocean from 15 of the 18 holes. This home and millionaire lifestyle will cost 1/3 the cost of what it would cost in Greenwich I will rent the property when I am in Ct for pretty good income stream and the property management will handle the paperwork and take a cut . Last fact this big hous in a prime location near the best beaches will be @ $3500 per year property tax you have been easy answer. WITHOUT GOOGLING OR ASKING ANYONE the first correct of where this Utopia is with perfect weather every day will get1free night which is pretty valuable of the rental of my entire house as long as they stay 3 nights or more. Where is this Utopia first correct answer wins !!
Lastly the next crash that could happen anytime could devastate the economy buy gold quality real estate silver and pay off nay debt asap. Hold tight as the answer is the next crash is the subprime auto lending debacle. There is such low interest rates and so much money being tossed around that around 2/3 of the people with tier 3 or tier 4 credit and have no cash in reserve will default if unemployment or trade war causes a recession. The trade war between China and US could easily trigger it and neither side is backing down ! The Chinese economy and their market is already in shambles. Our economy will likely fall within the next year or two as our president never backs down once he is firmly entrenched. NO DONALD TRADE WARS ARE NOT GOOD AND NOT EASY TO WIN !!! His exact quote what an idiot !! I am prepared and am ready so will be fine. If you dont think that huge amount of delinquent debts from credit card +mostly subprime lending for auto financing wont be ugly google auto subprime auto lending and it will reveal the truth. The media know but wont talk about it as most folks wont believe it.
rare coins in MS 65 esp GSA certified CC mint from Government hoard are quite rare and very stable and will be a safe haven against hyperinflation like under Carter remember 12% or more interest rates under Carter gas rationing etc, History does repeat itself eventually 20 trillion dollar deficit with zero increase in purchasing power and nobody even jeff bezos the guy with 136 billion wants to pay even $15 per hour. I cant remember when the min wage was increased as it was maybe 14 years ago ? I believe Seattle mandates $15 per hour Ct Is $10 but it sucks as very high taxes. Some states are @ $8 per hour minimum wage ?? Here is what I am jabbering about read the whole list before you comment please. And most countries have Worse ?? Find a place with a very low cost of living !! Pm for answer otherwise you dont get the answer unless you figure it out !!
Those folks who bought tons of culty wine and think it is an endless streak should probably cash in and take a modest profit and go home. All the time at Mohegan Sun I see people start with $200 make $500 quick and keep playing till they inevitably lose. When I go best strategy that Often works but no always is bring what you expect to lose maybe a few hundred, Play min bet till you are winning 2 out of every 3 hands then gradually increase bets if on a roll and ride the wave but when it starts to go down and the dealer gets super lucky then cash in chips and leave with a small gain ! People are too greedy at casinos usually !
FYI;
The '02 Latour was under $100 on futures . ![[wow.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/7/7d450e9830889c8943b674446a21b7254cad657e.gif "wow"){kind=small}