And I will be in the ring, performing. Notes to appear on Winedoctor. That is if British Airways take me there, as they are posturing over strike action at the moment, and I’m booked to fly out on a planned strike day.
You miss the point about risk to the consumer. The risk has nothing to do with the quality or availability of the wine hopefully to be delivered in the future. Rather, as a purchaser of EP, I am an unsecured lender providing interest free cash to a complicated supply chain to which I have no visibiity on financial solvency.
Despite claims about this recession being over, it have barely just begun and those placing bids on 2009 EP should be careful in my opinion.
Frankly, buying futures makes zero sense in today’s deflationary world. The wines will be cheaper in a few years especially afte3r the Euro implodes.
He already seems to be backtracking. He now is warning that the Great Vintage of 09 he seeks notoriety for discovering may not be uniformly great.
He has been advised by “unstated producers” he refuses to disclose that some Petit Chateau are not as good as their 05’s.
I don’t doubt for a minute your takes of 2005s going for the peanut. What I do doubt (in the sense of I honestly don’t know) is how typical of this is major markets around the world i.e., to what extent it is largely typical of the US.
Scott Mc Arthur,
I don’t answer your posts any more .
China: bubble, bubble, toil and trouble. Let’ neither undersell nor oversell Chinese economic clout. I don’t know what the value of all that wine shipped to China is, but it is nevertheless a milestone that they have surpassed the US in volume. A friend of mine told me he saw the great growths “everywhere” when he was there. I have translated a speech by the president of the CIVB today. He confirms the statistic about exports to China.
You say I missed the boat about the risks involved in buying en primeur, that it’s actually just a way of beoming an unsecured lender. Well, yes, that’s another aspect. And no one would do it, take that risk, if they didn’t think it was worth their while. Can be compared to playing the stock market. You can make money, or lose it.
You say there is zero reason for buying 2009s. But, if I were a betting man, I’d wager that if you were in no hurry, you would be sure to make money on the name wines .
Show me the real data. Not a small article in Le Monde (and of course beyond Lafite and its subsidiaries). I am willing to believe if true. Unlike you, I have nothing at stake here.
This is a classic example where myth becomes reality. Keep talking about it, making inferences, and present lots of vague points (“a friend of mine”, “great growths everywhere”) to create an allure of veracity.
Myth becomes reality…
I can give you the US exports to China (truncated below). Why cant you give me Bordeaux’s???
Table 2: Top US Exports to China 2008 ($ billion) Percent change over 2007
Sources: US International Trade Commission, US Department of Commerce, and US Census Bureau
HS# Commodity Description Volume % Change
85 Electrical machinery & equipment 11.4 6.8
84 Power generation equipment 9.7 10.0
12 Oil seeds & oleaginous fruits 7.4 76.2
88 Air & spacecraft 5.1 -29.0
I’ve been there many times, and it smacks of bubble if I’ve ever seen one in my life. The disparity between classes is sure to cause severe revolt, and the continuing urban sprawl is destroying the core of what has made them an economic power - village factory workers living close to poverty. The quality of the infrastructure is suspect (go there and see the many skyscrapers going up, all with completely rusted framing from the get-go), and there is such a clear delineation between rich and poor. The quality of life is being destroyed so quickly - go check out the rivers, or the air. Sit yourself directly in Red Square and see if you can find any blue sky. Talk to the people who are working in the factories as I have - see what they have to say about it, what their dreams and aspirations are. Talk to the nouveau riche there - what you see is them attaching themselves to Western economies, not creating their own.
I’m not sure where you read articles about the demise of the Chinese economy - all I EVER see are articles about it being the next world economic power, that we all will one day work for China, etc. In fact, just yesterday, the cover of Newsweek has another article about it. For every one you might read about the eventual demise of that economy, there are 1000 to the contrary.
I am not speaking for other markets, just an observation of things going on in my area of the USA (will not extrapolate to other areas of the USA even). I see many 05s still at futures prices and have started to see cracks in that also as some wines (not FGs of course) are being priced below the futures price. It is all based on too much supply and not enough demand which is a function of many things, one of which is the current economic evironment. A lot of wine is backing up in the US market (in my area at least) so they have to get things moving with 3 other vintages unsold and new one arriving.
The wine market is constipated what is needed is a massive price reduction enema . I bet after that release, all in the wine trade will feel better.
I wonder if he has ever drank many of these petit chateau before? Bordeaux’s biggest blogger has previously avoided thread after eBob thread on this topic (not enough cachet?). And now he gives no answer to Alan Chan’s question.