Bordeaux futures- an excellent analysis

Good point, I hadn’t noticed, but I think this is actually a misunderstanding by the author. Most consumers don’t taste the wines in barrel, so perhaps the “buyers” in question are the négociants or other ITBs. Consumers who buy EP try to “align” their palate with that of a critic, but taste is always subjective, so naturally a wine can be disappointing when in the end it doesn’t suit the consumer’s palate. This is one of the problems today with EP - why buy an unfinished product blind when you can buy and taste one yourself a few years later, often at a cheaper price?

I’ve no doubt you’re right about their longstanding partnerships. It’s the same in any business. Bordeaux CCs have no experience of selling direct, no market insight, and no client network, so undercutting their partners would be foolhardy. They need to work with them, not against them.

I’m assuming that the short-term problem is 2025. The wine is still in barrel. They have only sold 30% of it. What do they do with the rest? How do they decide how much to bottle in which formats? They don’t have enough storage space (although if 2026 is a smaller harvest, this might help).

I’m sure experienced Bordeaux château owners are dying to know the opinion of a total nitwit, but this is what I would do. As always, it’s about the money, but also, as the article points out, about what the client wants. I would embrace the idea GPL began, so multi-format cases, but improving it by including halves. I would also offer multi-vintage cases of both halves and bottles. For example, one bottle each from 2020 to 2025. This is nothing new - I get similar “ex-château” offers every year (prepared by the châteaux but sold by négociants), but the prices are always prohibitive. So châteaux need to bite the bullet, and drop the prices - of wines already sold to négociants. The latter have untold mountains of unsold wine they need to get rid of - and a partnership works only if both sides are happy. So yes, you sold your 2021s, 2023s and 2024s, but if your partner isn’t selling them, it’s your problem too. Giving credit notes on unsold wines in warehouses would enable you to get rid of the unsold wine still in barrel. Offering a case of six different vintages enables them to hide the real price of each, so not undercutting the market for the “troubled” vintages, whilst giving consumers a proper deal. I would certainly be interested in something like that and I’m sure I’m not alone. It would also be a way of finding new consumers - it’s not exactly an original idea - wine producers all over the world offer “sample” cases - why wouldn’t Bordeaux?

I don’t think that’s likely to happen again. The average French punter has more important priorities than buying wine costing more than 20 to 30 euros. At the recent FAVs, anything costing more just remained unsold.

Yes, absolutely.

I’m not particularly worried about Bordeaux’s future - they have always managed to ride out crises in the past, but as in any market, it’s the survival of the fittest, and rightly so. The more creative and agile will find the right solutions - and for once, it won’t be about one-upmanship, which has dogged EP pricing for years, but “one-downmanship”.

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