Bordeaux EP 2024

WINE TALK
685

If I had to speculate, we are probably within 15% of the bottom of the market now in a “most likely” scenario. In an extreme scenario, I speculated with Sara Danasse recently that it could be as much as 50% below where we currently are, but clearly that relies on systematic changes in Bordeaux too (eg reducing quality to reduce cost of production).

A previous drinks business article suggested it was somewhat worrying that the price decrease hasn’t found the elastic demand to pick up the slack - so I think the question is where you fall in that opinion. Do you think 30% more off would make these wines sell out, or is the world just off Bordeaux/wine/etc. that’s a speculative question that will rely more on opinion than data.

For the first year that I’m aware of, negociants aren’t taking their allocations, they’re mainly ordering to demand (as far as I know). I suspect we are at the very start of the turmoil, rather than coming out of it.

One thing I would observe, between 2018 and 2023(?) one whole “UK” worth of consumption was switched off by China reducing wine consumption.

I think there’s a very good chance wine gets utterly shredded over the next five or ten years. There’s no bulk volume replacement for “one UK” worth of wine consumption unless you get one of the SE nations to really get into wine.

Worth a view : Video - Is Wine Going Out Of Fashion? - by Sara Danese

Perhaps to put it more succinctly…

If you think wine returns anti correlate with the interest rate, as these come down then wine should do well as investment goes back in (though of course t bill rates are actually going up under Trump so may be a while)

If you think wine returns are driven by demand of consumers, then that’s probably going to keep going down

If you think our current lull is driven by cost of living, or general disillusionment with en primeur, then it’s only going one way in the short term.

1 Like
686

Interesting thoughts. But most of them are applicable to “wine” in general, not just to Bordeaux. If you are right we should also begin to see a steep correction in prices for US, Italian or Spanish wine too, don’t you think?

687

I couldn’t comment to be honest as I don’t really follow those regions and don’t even pretend to have any expertise.

I think Bordeaux suffers from being a lot more commoditised than some of those other regions. Especially with the “hype” cycle of an en primeur campaign, for example, and all the price comparisons that go along side that.

To your question about the US, slightly different as it’s not exactly widely exported to EU/Asia, but I would suggest you see a lot of posts about people getting allocations for wines that were previously impossible to get, and for example in the Ridge thread people are finding it too pricey or even above secondary market valuation, so isn’t that starting to happen?
Eg here

The US system of course has the benefit of not really being free market, either, which means it’s easier to obfuscate price falls compared to over in the UK where secondary trade on e.g. BBX, Farr, L&W and Cru manifest effectively as primary sales.

One of the gang on Discord is, for me, effectively the de facto Barolo expert, and he’s finding a lot of Barolo at the moment too pricey for the quality of the juice.

My radical idea to fix en primeur which will never happen for both logistics reasons and, likely, chateau getting screwed reasons, is that en primeur should be a Dutch auction of at least 50% of the production volume.

I bet THAT would throw up some hell of a set of results.

2 Likes
688

Separately I just got sent this which I think was timely!

7 Likes
689

A couple of things.

Henry, you are correct. The 2023s have not arrived. I was fooled by an e mail headlined “Recently landed”

And I totally agree with you. Looking back 10 years on, 2024 will not be looked out of buying opportunity. It is a relatively weak vintage in a decade of much stronger ones. I suspect unless things changed, Bordeaux is in for a slightly tough time. Not just 2024, but overall it does not look good for those who are accumulating recent vintages of Bordeaux.

My guess is that I will be a bottle of Pichon Lalande to the good. There is a market for Bordeaux, but so long as they keep churning out good to great vintages you will be looking at a large quantity of wine which will remain unsold in warehouse, or sold at a serious discount to just get rid of them. I cannot see anybody buying 2024 at these levels, and suspect they will eventually be sold at a fraction of its current price.

My further hope is at Bordeaux does not conform to what is happening with vintage port where wines with 20 to 30 years of cellaring are basically the same price of the new releases.

3 Likes
690

Yes shall I just buy and deliver the bottle of pichon for you now??

1 Like
691

I feel like Neil Martin wrote that article directed to me… I stopped buying EP a long time ago

(and for those who have not clicked through to read the link HenryB provided, it’s well worth it for anyone who follows Bordeaux / EP / wine markets)

1 Like
692

there are only a few fools like me left :smiley:

1 Like
693

Great article that perfect encapsulates how I feel about Bdx and the issues with the EP system. I do wish the chateau well but I agree they have been their own worst enemy

I was stunned by the following comment, as I always felt that 2009 EP in 2010 was when the issues around greed and pricing got seriously out of hand (for me anyway).

“Perversely, I trace it back to the 2009 campaign, so successful that it skewed expectations, whipped up avarice, instilled feelings of invincibility and encouraged some to pursue easy money.”

3 Likes
694

FWIW, the prices being asked relative to prices in other regions / the rest of the world don’t look crazy… they just look a little crazy as futures

695

It’s crazy relative to the volume produced and that is the fundamental issue. The sky high pricing at the top end in most fine wine regions are by few producers with very limited production.

1 Like
696

Haven’t bought a single bottle. It isn’t looking good to buy anything either. The exchange keeps getting worse against the pound as well.

1 Like
697

I mean, most Bordeaux is <$10. Even most classified growth is $50-$100. Compared to Napa, even Oregon, even Italy; Bordeaux seems like a bargain. I won’t even mention burgundy.

Yeah, there’s first growths and a few unicorns that are high priced; and maybe volumes are higher than cult wines. But on the whole Bordeaux is a bargain.

Did the top 5% of Bordeaux get carried away? Sure.

698

Eglise Clinet out at a crazy price with 1/6th typical volume. Not sure if that’s yields or artificial scarcity. Games are being played.

699

Tough sell when VCC is 60 EUR less. Particularly rough for them to release same day…

1 Like
700

I saw an offer today here in the US for VCC for $160. Definitely got my attention (but no, I’m not buying). Cheapest VCC in the market right now unless you go back to 2011/2012/2013. But I guess the question is - why buy VCC for $160 just to get the weakest VCC of the last decade, when much better (per reviewers, I haven’t tried any recent ones) vintages are available for just a bit more? I’m sure there’s a market of price-sensitive VCC hunters, but even for them I’d advise to just wait and buy these in 3 or 4 years when the prices are even lower.

This is my overall problem with 2024 Bordeaux at what seem to be pretty darn low prices. Cheap relative to Bordeaux. But for poor quality, especially relative to 2020/2022/2023 which appear to be better vintages at similar prices. But what do I know, I’m just watching from the sidelines.

2 Likes
701

Ok Napa, sure, But the vast swaths of everything but the top 3 or 4 wines per region (ok a few more in Barolo and Montalcino) in Oregon, Italy, Spain are below $100, usually quite a bit lower. Bordeaux is competing with that.

702

There’s no urgency to buy a down vintage. The exchange rate has moved and made these wines more expensive to buy in bond and the uncertainty of tariffs buying from a US retailer means I am wholly sitting this EP campaign out. I’d love to snag some bottles of a few favorites but I have no desire to buy under these conditions.

1 Like
703

Historically it’s been vintages like 2013 that have moved the most post en primeur but that has been broken with 2017 and 2021 and even then, are generally cheaper for a while after EP…

1 Like
704

The vast majority of Bordeaux is under $10. The vast majority of Bordeaux classified growths are $50-$100. There’s like maybe 50-100 distinct bottles that are over $100. Out of like 10,000 offerings? 9,900 under $100.

That’s about 1% of Bordeaux offerings over $100/bottle.

At the $30-$50 mark, there’s some very good value in Bordeaux. Better than Napa at the same price range, and better even than Oregon. Spain has some excellent wines even cheaper. Italy may be about the same.

The elite wines of Bordeaux have gotten carried away on pricing, but they are basically unrepresentative.

1 Like