Of anyone could share the link I’d appreciate it. Very LONG but I’m an old retired guy, so I read the whole thing. Basically too many luxury brands making $100-$200 bottles chasing less and less customers. But it’s very in depth and does offer some insights and options for the future.
I think it’s free, was linked from the Wine Business:
It’s a really long article but most of the points are solid. They are also not novel. Alas, I find the article a bit self-serving. Ted Hall was a McKinsey guy who helped force the Mondavi’s out of Mondavi, was the prime backer of the regulation disallowing anyone owning less than 40 acres from being allowed to build a winery (which helped large entities like himself), bought Stony Hill and could not make that work, selling to Gaylon Lawrence after just a handful of years, and tbh, I’ve seen his own wines being discounted to $9 at close-out stores in the valley. So although he makes some good points, he is not the person I wish to see leading the future here. Private equity and consultant firms has done enough damage to this valley already. We need less of their ideas, not more. I do like Farmstead, though.
25 Likes
Very good article worth a read
The use of stock photos is kind of hilarious though…
4 Likes
Will people really replant with something other than Cabernet? For decades some amazing Petite Sirah was grown there, and was probably a key ingredient in early Cabs, before megapurple came along.
As the climate changes I could see warm weather options like Grenache performing well. I wasn’t that shocked to hear that between 100 and 170 wineries are operating at break even or a loss. My wife told recently that the A&W burger joint that was there for 60 years, has closed down. Wonder what luxury business will take its place.
I’d also say this. As warehouses run out of room its going to be a buyers for collectors in the next couple of years.
5 Likes
This article is being discussed in another thread:
2 Likes
There’s no citation or explanation of that analysis in the original article. More likely, whichever AI was used to write the article just hallucinated that factoid into existence.
Maybe it’s true, maybe it isn’t. Maybe the actual number is more, or maybe it’s less. We won’t know, because it’s AI slop.
Thank you for sharing the article. Great perspective on the current state of wine in Napa. Maybe not unique or original, but nice overview and info.
Whether it’s true or not, there appear to be a lot of wineries out there that can handle being at breakeven or a loss for a long time based on their personal wealth . . .
Cheers
I’m no economist, but i do understand supply and demand.
more like this.
As a former Stony Hill mailing list buyer when Stony Hill was Stony Hill, Ted Hall and the rest of his PE ilk can piss up a rope.
3 Likes
PE ruins everything.
It’s also potentially a death sentence - look at survival rates of companies that were bought out by PE or leveraged - they have an alarmingly high bankruptcy rate.
4 Likes
+1 Methusaleh
1 Like