I think Jeff covered our situation pretty well. At this point in the vintage the story is much more about yields than quality.
As far as quality goes, it is too early to tell but there are more positive than negative signs. On the positive, yields are low and clusters are loose with many small berries. This is usually the sign of a vintage that will have good concentration. On the negative, there has been a long protracted flowering period which might lead to uneven ripening however the lower yields may help the grapes even out as the season progresses.
Overall the quality of 2015 will have a lot more to do with what happens from this point forward rather than what has happened so far.
Done, because YOU asked nicely. Thanks Eric.
Can you please change it back? I liked the sarcasm especially since I’ve already cast doubts on the vintage myself.
The cool May put Halcon in suspended animation, pushing flowering into June. Syrah clusters look to be a little smaller than average but not a lot of shatter. Maybe 10% down.
On the other hand our Grenache has shattered badly. Grenache shatters so easily, so no surprise. The 2015 Esquisto is going to be a little Mourvedre heavy again.
That cold May was great for us, as it is going to push harvest back into October. I would rather have to deal with rain than heatwaves.
Ron, I think the only thing wrong with the original title was to include “US” instead of “NW”. To those of us here, it seems obvious already that both OR and WA are shaping up to be hot vintages. Of course the end of the growing season really matters and we’ll have to wait and see. But any hope of a vintage in OR similar to '07, '10, or '11 (which I know lots of people are looking for after the last 3 warm years) seems to be gone already.
Good points Ryan. What I have learned is that parts of CA had a cold spring, and I wasn’t aware of this given how unseasonably warm the spring has been in the NW. And the lack of rain mainly seems to be a potential for areas that aren’t irrigated or have run out of irrigation water (Doh!).
As for years like 07, 10, or 11, I am glad to have a fair amount cellared but bummed that it appears cool vintages may become more of a rarity.
How about “crap” instead of “sh*t?”
Thanks!
You mention 07, 10 and 11 being cool vintages…2007 wasn’t esp cool, at least for ‘North Coast’ vineyards. It wasn’t a warm as 2003 or 2004 were, but I’d put 07 in the warm side of middle (12-14 were all cooler, 14 being the most similar). 2010 was cool, except it gets an asterisk because of the killer heat waves in the fall.
Not that 2007 wasn’t an excellent vintage.
Yes, 2007 in the Willamette Valley was slightly warmer than average. Then it rained in late September and didn’t really stop too much, just nice windows for picking.
Everything will ride on end of season weather. If we start picking in early September as it looks now, you can assume it’s more likely to be warm if not possibly hot weather at harvest. That wouldn’t be good.
But if it cools down in July and/or August, and especially if it’s cool in September, that’s going to mark the vintage way more than what’s happened to this point. You just can’t say, and even when we’re picking and we’re convinced it’s the best thing ever, or a total wash out, you still can’t say. We all want to make calls, we all love to declare “game over” in the third quarter or 6th inning, but that’s bravado, not reality. So hold tight everyone.
Wow, thanks for finding and posting this Paul. Great, great stuff.
An aside:
Oregon Pinot Camp is really a great trade event. I’ve met seemingly jaded somms and buyers in the top US markets - and I say that in a good way, people who really know their shit and don’t put up with BS junket things - and all I ever hear is how cool OPC was or how much they want to go. It’s truly meaningful to us selling our wines across the country and really gets me excited to be part of it in the future and do more than I do to support the industry’s collective efforts to promote what’s truly unique and different about our wines here.
Thank you for injecting some sanity into the thread, with regard to those of us making wine up here in the PNW. 
I once took the time to figure out which month had the hottest day of the year going back to 1990 (Yamhill County). I found that when it was in August-1993, 2008 and 2010 they really rang my bell.
Ymmv, but last month at 100F a few times makes me wonder. I’ll make something pretty anyways, and the ironic truth is that the more the afwe dislikes a vintage the better it sells.
2014 is a great example. I’m largely sitting out the vintage but it should also be a big success for Oregon Winemakers and vineyard owners. Record tonnage, yielding approachable, easy to sell wines. So while I’m not cellaring the vintage myself, I do think it’ll be great for Oregon wine, funding future growth.
Todd. No irony. I’d be shocked if it were otherwise!
Parkerization and steroidal Pinots didn’t happen because there’s no market. Despite the IPOB-thing ruffling feathers around here, I don’t see their offerings or other AFWE options truly competing for the wider market. The emperor’s clothes aren’t what they were, but hedonism is alive and well!
RT
At our home vineyard on the west face of Sonoma Mountain the yields are down for most blocks by about 25%. We have some more stuff coming of age so we will make up for it. At Cloud 12, on the top the yield looks decent as I think the inversion and elevation helped out. It is also Syrah and Zin so it bloomed way later and avoided the winter in spring scenario. Around the winery in RR it looks like a stellar set, haven’t been to Floodgate yet but I expect something similar. I suspect that the early bloom and heat made everything set before the cold came around. At our place it seemed like bloom/set went on for months. Will check on Grist(Dry Creek) and Mattei(Mayacamas) when I return and will report back.
Across varieties I’ve seen some pretty extended flowering, really variant amounts of shatter between blocks. It will be a very interesting year to pick, especially if it comes in fast and early like last year, which will be further complicated by the paucity of picking crews. I think many will struggle to get their fruit in the condition they want. As far as what I’ve seen, inland areas have remained hot, but its been a cool summer on the immediate coast, which could further compress things.
Ian
Evan - when you say down by about 25%, what data point are you using? Do you take an average of yields for some number of vintages and move plus or minus from that average? Or have a vintage you measure against as “typical?” I guess when I am surveying the crop, I think "this feels about like 2013, or “this feels less than 2014.” Are you as detailed as counting clusters, estimating cluster weight based on size and then estimated the yield? Curious.
Was up in Paso yesterday and spoke to a few folks in the Templeton Gap - mentioned that syrah got hit hard with shatter due to heavy winds . . . .
I just posted regarding 2015 sunburn over on the Weather Thread in Cellar Rats.
It never made sense to me that people only liked big-styled wines because Parker or Laube gave them high scores. It always made more sense that it was the other way around - Parker and Laube have many readers and have prominent voices in the wine world because they tend to identify wines that their readers like. Robert Parker wouldn’t be a giant name in the world of wine if most readers kept finding that they hated the wines he recommended.
To take the most extreme example, it’s quite clear that Parker was “right” in giving the Caymus 40th the high score. Right in the sense of it, in fact, being a wine that a lot of his readers and other wine drinkers would really love. I loathed it myself, but it seems pretty clear that his view of the wine is much more in synch with the wine buying public than is mine.