I’ve come nowhere near $50 in my average consumption.
But Berserkers probably do spend more than the average consumer and it’s not because everyone is rich. There are bargains in the sub $30 category if you know where to look. There’s a whole thread on sub $20 good drinkers not of the mass production ilk.
2025 is a record year for me so far and I’m clocking in at an average of $35.72
2024 Avg $34.50
2023 $30.12
2022 $$31.41
2021 $27.45
2020 $$24.98
I think I drink pretty damn good wine and my average cost over the past 6 years is $37/bottle.
I don’t really have any sympathy for wineries who can’t thrive or sustain selling $[300]+ bottles of Napa Cab, especially in instances where the wines aren’t positively differentiated vs. the competition and/or when there are other vintages of the otherwise same exact wine for much less money on the secondary market.
Agreed. This is how I feel. Especially the people doing it as a vanity project. The people that have been toiling the trenches trying to sell good fine for fair prices and struggling. All the sympathy in the world. Some poser selling $300 Napa Cab that has no clue what they are doing? Zero sympathy.
Well put.
Add to it that the sell is primarily Cabernet, which while a great grape that makes great wines, is by no means in short supply.
Resets are hard, but one is needed. Just like CRE went through. At some point, you have to mark to market.
The last offer I got from Marcassin several years ago I believe the shipping was well north of $100 a case. I will say it may have been for second day air. No I didn’t buy any because I would have had to ship it to DC and that was 3 hours away at the time.
I think there is a solution here that would satisfy both sides.
The standard price at the winery should be basically the same as the retail MSRP.
However, wineries should offer their allocation list members significant discounts for loyalty and consistent ordering over years. As well as waiving tasting fees for small amounts of purchases etc.
Everyone wins here. I know this may be an oversimplified solution.
Sounds very close to the current model excepting the highly allocated stuff. No reason to offer discounts if the list is deep with replacement buyers. In today’s market though, that model is starting to show cracks as the drops and replacement buyers are drying up. That is the basic underpinning of this discussion. Should:can they cut price without hurting the brand image ( whatever that is)
How about just hold prices steady? At least for Napa, 23 will be a stand out vintage with comparisons to 13 and 18 as one of the best. Often, that is when prices will go up. If demand is that soft perhaps stable prices will be the norm for '23. And unlike the bordelaise, I don’t recall seeing California drop prices for off vintages (but maybe I am missing something)
This is one of way to get things back in balance, especially for those that have overshot and have lost buyers. Luckily, 23 is a very nice vintage that people may be willing to pay the higher price for. Some will have to hold for 24 as well and possibly 25.
One of the problems not discussed seems to be the way we consumers contribute to the issues. Far too many of the folks in wine have bought far more than they will ever consume. Why is that ok? How much is enough? There is an addictive nature to this hobby that is two way. We buy so much on emotions and the need for new sensations. When a winery becomes an instant success and ramps up production only to forgotten by the next trend. Or a reliable institution has a rough vintage and gets savaged. We contribute to the problem. I’m not saying that the consumer is causing downturn but we all have a hand in it. We romanticize what is hard business.
I’m confused by the concept of MSRP. Why is that appropriate in the simple transactions of buying and selling wine? Once I, as a retailer, have bought wine from a winery or wholesaler the price I charge to sell it on to a consumer is my business and mine alone. Trying to standardise the retail price for everything is the sort of thing that communist countries try. and it doesn’t generally work out well.
Yep, sounds like most ‘standard’ wine clubs for all other non-‘allocated’ wines out there.
That way, they ‘safe face’ with their MSRP to all looking - but ‘take care’ of their best customers.
The rest of us call this ‘business as usual’ 
So, I generally agree with you. Whatever markup above cost that a retailer wants to sell something for should be fair game IMO. However, a producer/distributor or something has every right to control who they sell to if they don’t like the prices.
This oversimplified solution was one that I found best for both sides. Of course the winery can throw in all kinds of perks and discounts on the backend. I’m just talking about the advertised online price.
Just out of curiosity, I ran a query.
In CT, aggregate purchase value of Napa Valley wines in the first quarter of 2025 is roughly half of what it was first quarter of 2024. Ditto California as a whole.
Seems a pretty strong signal.
Ouch!
Good sleuthing, and definitely not a good sign.
Half is flat out alarming.
I’m curious to see what the user count difference is between the 2 periods as well. Was that included too? Or just the volume. I don’t think CT is losing clients at a huge rate.
I’d be quite interested to see where that money is going. Specifically, people are spending on wine, just not in the way that we are most used to:
And Liz Thach has noted this trend as well:
That Wine Market Council study is not getting enough chatter.
I read it when it came out, it’s really interesting.
Agreed. And it’s hard data is that goes against the narrative.
Like many though, the game has changed and I think we’re applying too much of what we knew into what the future will be (the same will be true in 10 years when we’re trying to analyze true Gen-Z trends in alcohol buying (c’mon people, there’s a good chunk of Gen-Z that can’t even legally drink!!))
I recall when the study came out in 2014, there was a lot of great data in there saying that future generations will drink less, but will spend more per bottle.
What’s weird is the mount of plonk still being sold, but I wonder for how much longer.