Most of those 750ml Kabi’s are very affordable. Hardly any reason to buy non-auction bottles domestically if it’s possible to get auction bottles for less, even with markups. Huge learning experience for me.
There are many factors, but in the grand scheme of things the numbers are still relatively high. The results so far look anemic compared to the last 2 years, but even looking back to the sale of the 2017 and 2018 vintages I am finding that the prices we saw today and yesterday are much higher (as in 20% or more- sometimes over 100%) than even 5-6 years ago.
From when I started buying auction wines at the auction (remotely through a broker- I have never attended) with the 1998 vintage, and in my analyses of older auction data which used to be readily available online, it was a classic random walk. Prices would tend to go up a bit in a really good vintage and then come down some in a weaker one, but always gradually rising.
And then with the 2015 vintage prices started to go up, and while they did recede somewhat with 2016 and 2018, the multi-year trend was for increases at far greater rates than before. And, with few exceptions, from 2019 to 2021 almost everything was up every year and often by quite a bit.
Until COVID, most people ITB I spoke with told me it was the Asian market driving increases- and by that I mean a whole new audience, not the same people just spending more. And then when COVID hit and the auctions started live-streaming, there was broader awareness and thus broader demand. Add in at the time the fact people were sitting at home spending money right and left on just about any kind of online auction or sale in any hobby. And then add in the fame of the 2021 vintage and you have a perfect storm.
COVID-era behaviors are receding now, but more importantly Germany has gone through yet another short term peak on the radar of wine collectors in general. It happened with the 2001 vintage and again with the 2007s- a really great year drew in all kinds of interest, and then attention quickly subsided again. But always there is a net gain in pricing and customer base long term- so the decades-long trend is still upward but with brief periods of hyperactivity around a given vintage.
One final factor is the no-limit bid. I have often bid no-limit because I am here in Texas where we have incredible access to the best Bordeaux and Burgundy, but relatively poor access to great German wines outside of a couple of shops that go to great lengths to maintain a modest stock of choice bottles. And so, given the history of minimal price moves every year- I had no worries with no limit bids, and it was actively promoted as an option.
That all ended for me when I got a case of 2021 Willi Schaefer Spatlese for 351 Euro a bottle before commission and proper importing costs. And you may have noticed if you saw communications directly from the commissionaires this year- but no limit bidding is now actively being discouraged. Given the quantities involved, it does not take too many no limit bids to send prices soaring, and that is not what the community at large wants. What they want is a way for people who really love the wines to have access to something a little extra special. The end game was never to create a haven for investment and scarcity value.
Anyhow- in the long run, the auctions so far are basically wiping out the excesses of the past 3-4 auction cycles but still with prices well above where they were prior to that. And that means that, as in the past, auction wines are not- in most cases- dramatically more expensive than the non-auction examples.
For my part, I bid on only 2 high dollar items this year. After the excesses of 2021 and how it left me feeling after the fact, I am using a much smaller budget now to explore new things and focus on things I am very fond of that are not selling in the 3-4 digit range. From the results we saw, I suspect I am not alone.
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I think my big surprise here is the stunning Kabinetten you could get for cheap - Adam at 30, Busch at 35, Lauer/Fritz Haag/Lieser at 45, Schaefer at 66 and Prum at 70. My group missed the Zilliken GKA halves by one euro but made up for it on the Adam Auslese (which might be the steal of today’s auction).
Thanks,
Zachary
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Thank you @Tom_Reddick! I very much appreciate your long perspective. This pattern seems a lot healthier than what we’re seeing in some other markets with a positive long term trend but not massive increases every single year.
For me, I’m pretty happy about my case+ of winnings this year at what seem like really reasonable prices. This is the first time I’ve gotten everything I bid on, so I’m glad I didn’t go too nuts!
Thanks for the clarification.
The highest-priced Kabinett is the 2023 Wehlener Sonnenuhr from Joh. Jos. Prüm. I’m surprised that the 2023 Geisberg is the second-highest Kabinett in price. Many Kabinetts but only three GGs were offered at the VDP auction in Trier this year.
For what it’s worth, the plural of “Kabinett” in German is “Kabinette.” It becomes “Kabinetten” in the dative case.
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And here is the link for the Nahe. With Muller not presenting at the Mosel this year, Keller will be our one indicator of how a return to normal might affect, or not affect, the prices realized for the two wineries who have achieved “blue chip” status, attracting the interest of wine investors and show collectors in addition to drinkers- and thus making regular appearances on the traditional wine auction scene.
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My guess is that the Keller price stays fairly stable. Keller’s regular bottlings have seen a lot of weakness in the auction market (not unlike others in the past year or so), but given small quantities, I expect the buyers (myself included) to keep these propped up.
Scrolling the live feed back to see Wittman La Borne and E-S Auf der Ley seems to support my thinking around the top end of the market.
I have a full day ahead and so need to duck out now, but a few comments so far. We are at lot 15 as I write this.
The Nahe continues its tradition as the MGM of the auctions- where the others are moving toward a more quick and efficient online experience, the Nahe admirably continues to interview the winemakers before their wines are sold. These and other small points of pageantry signal a welcome to the world to join in, but to not expect things to made faster and simpler to suit the demands of those who are not fully dedicated. Personally, I love it.
So far the pricing today has been very stable, which is not a complete surprise. The Nahe slate has the fewest number of producers, and by far the smallest number of wines for sale. Aside from Auf der Lay, I do not think any other wine has a lot with more than 360 bottles in it. Additionally, going into the pricing boom of the late 2019s, the best Nahe wines were already very expensive and did not see the % increases that were common for Mosel wines.
Lots so far with a prior year comparative have been right on the money- less than 10% different from last year. The only exception was the magnums of 2018 Alte Borne which went for 1000 Euro as compared to 1,850 for the 2017 magnums last year and 1,800 Euro for the 2016s the year prior. This can be partially explained I think by the fact that while 2018 was a good vintage, for the GGs it did not hit the highs of the vintages on either side. When most 2018s were released to auction a few years back, not just the GGs, the results were fairly soft- the last time that happened until this year.
Happy bidding- I will be back tonight and post the full results.
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Well, I was partly wrong—happy to pick up the case at €3500—maybe there more speculative interest keeping them propped up in the past couple years than I thought…
And hardly more than what the retailers will charge for non-Auction bottles here in CA. 
I think this year’s auction has caused a really problematic problem. Prices for non Auction Kabinette were moving up nicely. Frankly they need to be priced higher to compensate growers for the hard work. Now you have auction wines selling for much less than non auction wines. Bizarro…
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Most of those Bernkasteler bottles seemed to start arbitrarily low. 
Spreads always used to be much thinner of course e.g. it always made more sense in the UK to buy Egon’s auction Kabi and Spatlese as they were more or less the same price.
Each market is different. I don’t think any Grosser ring Kabi sold for less than the regular version using German pricing (I didn’t really follow the other auctions so maybe they did there).
Maybe in the US the three tiers add more than the ‘auction premium’.
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I can’t find single wine from auction results that costs less than regular single vineyard prädikat bottling from same producer in German market? I assume you can skip US 3-tier system with buying straight from the auction? Otherwise this conclusion makes no sense to me.
I think one problem is also that all auction wines are really not that exceptional nor even that much better than non-auction wines and in same time quantity of really good prädikat wines easily available is skyrocketed . When economical situation is bad there ain’t no really rational reason to buy wines from auctions even if they are just a bit more expensive than regular bottlings. Also the demand of Bernkasteler Ring auction wines has always been pretty low as I have been buying unsold auction wines from producers after the auctions quite a lot.
Same importer? Probably not and that may be why the non-auction bottles were close to the price of the auction bottles.
NAHE RESULTS - HAMMER PRICE IN EURO BEFORE COMMISSION AND VAT
Note there is no Lot 26 listed below- it was an experience-based charity lot
| No | Weingut | Vtg. | Wine | Size | Hammer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N 1 | H. J. Kreuzberg | 2022 | Devonschiefer R | Spätburgunder | 750ML | 94.00 | |
| N 2 | Schlossgut Diel | 2019 | PINOT NOIR ARA | Spätburgunder | 750ML | 145.00 | |
| N 3 | Schlossgut Diel | 2019 | PINOT NOIR ARA | Spätburgunder | 1.5L | 300.00 | |
| N 4 | Gut Hermannsberg | 2017 | KUPFERGRUBE, Schloßböckelheim | Riesling Sekt extra VDP.SEKT PRESTIGE | 750ML | 80.00 | |
| N 5 | Philipp Kuhn | 2023 | PHILIPPSBRUNNEN | Riesling | GG | 750ML | 150.00 |
| N 6 | Battenfeld Spanier | 2019 | Zell Kreuzberg Treasure Collection | Riesling | Pfalz | 1.5L | 700.00 |
| N 7 | Battenfeld Spanier | 2019 | Zell Kreuzberg Treasure Collection | Riesling | Pfalz | 3L | 1,650.00 |
| N 8 | Wagner-Stempel | 2023 | EMT | Riesling trocken | 750ML | 195.00 | |
| N 9 | Philipp Wittmann | 2023 | La Borne | Riesling trocken | Alte Reben | 750ML | 350.00 |
| N 10 | Philipp Wittmann | 2018 | La Borne | Riesling trocken | Alte Reben | 1.5L | 1,000.00 |
| N 11 | Gunderloch | 2023 | FENCHELBERG | Riesling | GG | 750ML | 96.00 |
| N 12 | Emrich-Schönleber | 2023 | AUF DER LEY | Riesling | GG | 750ML | 215.00 |
| N 13 | Emrich-Schönleber | 2023 | AUF DER LEY | Riesling | GG | 1.5L | 501.00 |
| N 14 | Emrich-Schönleber | 2023 | AUF DER LEY | Riesling | GG | 3L | 1,230.00 |
| N 15 | Emrich-Schönleber | 2005 | HALENBERG | Riesling | TBA Goldkapsel | 1.5L | 7,000.00 |
| N16 | Dönnhoff | 2023 | BRÜCKE Oberhausen Monopol | Riesling | GG | 750ML | 350.00 |
| N17 | Dönnhoff | 2023 | BRÜCKE Oberhausen Monopol | Riesling | GG | 1.5L | 1,500.00 |
| N 18 | Schäfer-Fröhlich | 2023 | Final | Riesling trocken | 750ML | 401.00 | |
| N 19 | Schäfer-Fröhlich | 2023 | Final | Riesling trocken | 1.5L | 1,250.00 | |
| N 20 | Charitykiste | 2013 | 6x750ML | 5,500.00 | |||
| N 21 | Keller | 2023 | HIPPING Nierstein | Riesling | GG | 750ML | 400.00 |
| N 22 | Keller | 2023 | HIPPING Nierstein | Riesling | GG | 1.5L | 1,860.00 |
| N 23 | Keller | 2023 | HIPPING Nierstein | Riesling | GG | 3L | 4,100.00 |
| N 24 | Keller | Rheinhessen | 3@ Schubertslay and Pettenthal | GG | 6x750ML | 3,500.00 | |
| N 25 | Keller | Rheinhessen | 1@ Schubertslay and Pettenthal | GG | 2x 1.5L | 7,050.00 | |
| N 27 | K. F. Groebe | 2018 | KIRCHSPIEL | Riesling | Grande Réserve | 750ML | 80.00 |
| N 28 | K. F. Groebe | 2023 | KIRCHSPIEL | Riesling | Kabinett | 750ML | 45.00 |
| N 29 | K. F. Groebe | 2023 | KIRCHSPIEL | Riesling | Kabinett | 1.5L | 170.00 |
| N 30 | Prinz Salm | 2023 | FELSENECK, Wallhausen | Riesling | Kabinett Alte Reben GK | 1.5L | 75.00 |
| N 31 | Joh. Bapt. Schäfer | 2023 | GOLDLOCH | Riesling | Kabinett | 750ML | 28.00 |
| N 32 | Joh. Bapt. Schäfer | 2023 | GOLDLOCH | Riesling | Kabinett | 1.5L | 100.00 |
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And the Nahe ended much as it started- a bit soft in places but overall not the drops we observed in the Bernkasteler and Mosel. Plus once again, large formats were the strongest performers in most cases.
No, and that’s exactly why. 
But it was also the same for the domestic market where there isn’t an importer.
And ‘importers’ for auction wines - at least preordered ones not from stock work on a very fixed margin in Europe at least.