2013 Latour released... Any takers?

[R_Frankel]

True, true. When I got into fine wines I thought that such premiums are purely because of the label and I wouldn’t ever pay them. Then I joined some high profile wine groups and did Bordeaux horizontals for quite a few vintages. These were always blind tastings and we all scored the wines and perhaps not so surprising, the top 10 and top 5 lists in these blind tasting were usually full of First Growth wines (and you can add Cheval, Petrus, Le Pin, Ausone, Lafleur to that list) eventhough nobody saw the labels.

Not many would argue that Bordeaux 1sts are bad wines. Nearly every one I’ve had has been excellent (barring a merely good 1990 Mouton and a corked 1990 Lafite). Some have been beyond excellent, truly among the most earth-shakingly amazing wines I’ve ever tasted. Are they worth the premium? An age old question for Berserkers, and one that can only be answered with another question - how much cash do you have (or more precisely, how much do you value wine versus the other things you could spend your money on)?

[James_Guthri3]

I just saw HDH’s offer. Pretty striking to see the 2015 Les Forts listed right below the 2013 Grand Vin, with the Les Forts showing higher scores from the same two critics at less than half the price. I’m no marketing genius, but have to question whether stores wouldn’t be better off separating the offers.

[Craig_G]

Just passing on the message, but in fairness, I couldnt get a full allotment of Mouton last season despite my best efforts. I dont think 14 Latour (TBH) will be heavily oversubscribed - in the same way that 2012 is still available at its release price. I can see an uptick in demand for 2015.

If you limit yourself to 2019 EP at the very best price, maybe, but which vintage of Mouton can you not buy today, in any quantity you like?

That uptick in demand for 2015 will be baked into the price, too. Latour has adopted a release and pricing model that guarantees there are no bargains. It’s not going to sell out on release in any vintage.

[HenryB]

Just passing on the message, but in fairness, I couldnt get a full allotment of Mouton last season despite my best efforts. I dont think 14 Latour (TBH) will be heavily oversubscribed - in the same way that 2012 is still available at its release price. I can see an uptick in demand for 2015.

If you limit yourself to 2019 EP at the very best price, maybe, but which vintage of Mouton can you not buy today, in any quantity you like?

That uptick in demand for 2015 will be baked into the price, too. Latour has adopted a release and pricing model that guarantees there are no bargains. It’s not going to sell out on release in any vintage.

My interest in buying Mouton significantly differs between the £1796/6 it was released at, and the ~£2200/6 it now trades at though.

What you’ve said is pretty much true of any wine - even things like Le Pin, Lafleur, etc - the ultra rare, low volume right bankers. Maybe some in Burgundy literally “money cant buy” after release, but anything else it’s available and out there.

all that being said, I do agree re Latour - it’s structured in a way to ensure they maximise their revenue by waiting until its in prime and releasing at or even above market implied fair price. Which, realistically, is why I wont be buying much Latour (that and cost!)

[R_Frankel]

HenryB does have a good point. ‘First tranche’ release prices are not about volume, availability or distribution limitations. They are literal market testing. If the Chateaux see high demand, the next release is more expensive. Low demand and releases are dribbled out slowly so that even the low demand doesn’t lead to massive price declines.

This is where the top Bordeaux are now - very aggressive and thoughtful market testers doing their best to extract the most money out of the market. Every business tries to do this within the bounds of their product/market/brand/budget/capabilities. I’m sure there are marketing experts pitching very fancy PowerPoints to all kinds of Bordeaux wine makers about how they can increase profit by X% with their wonderful market testing strategies.

For the very clever/attentive/lucky buyer first tranche buying represents a deliberately limited opportunity to get a good price. Of course if you guess wrong and the market isn’t as excited as you are then your first tranche will look expensive relative to prices you can pay a year or two or ten later. Isn’t this what happened in 2008/9/10/11/12/13 in Bordeaux?

[HenryB]

I believe 08 bordeaux was actually one of the most profitable vintages in recent memory. Not sure about 9. 10 was very challenging because of some insane hype driven pricing, e.g. I think Lafite was around £1000 a bottle? I think off the top of my head pretty much only Le Pin is up in any substantial way against their en primeur pricing in 2010.

I wasnt really in the market in 2011, I bought little bits and I think what I had bought, if I’d kept till now, would have been a little profitable, but we’re looking at largely no name wines there; highlight was an alter ego de palmer.

IIRC 12 was quite a substantial price reset after 10/11, and whilst it hasnt necessarily appreciated that much, did still represent a good buying opportunity IMHO (VFM drinking wines rather than investables). 15 MAYBE 16 was, for me, the last good ‘I might make money out of this’ vintage until 2019

[Craig_G]

My interest in buying Mouton significantly differs between the £1796/6 it was released at, and the ~£2200/6 it now trades at though.

It’s almost kept pace with the S&P500!

[HenryB]

My interest in buying Mouton significantly differs between the £1796/6 it was released at, and the ~£2200/6 it now trades at though.

It’s almost kept pace with the S&P500!

to be fair, it was trading at £2200/6 within a couple of weeks. Had I wanted to sell it then, it would have substantially outstripped the performance of the S&P 500.

And that will remain true of Lafleur for many years to come - 100% return in a day. The question, really, is how I get my hands on 10 cases, rather than 3 bottles.


Also more sensibly, I dont know how long the stock market performances can be kept up for - the returns in the last decade outstrip what’s available historically (I believe? would need to check), and I do think from an economic perspective the US will start to saturate in many ways in the next few years. But then, I’m a (~65%) passive investor in equities.

[R_Frankel]

to be fair, it was trading at £2200/6 within a couple of weeks. Had I wanted to sell it then, it would have substantially outstripped the performance of the S&P 500.

And that will remain true of Lafleur for many years to come - 100% return in a day. The question, really, is how I get my hands on 10 cases, rather than 3 bottles.

That’s exactly my point above. You can only buy 3 bottles. When you ask for 10 cases (you and every other aggressive buyer in the market) you are feeding valuable data into their market test. Lafleur’s crack marketing then says ‘Aha! We’ll give Henry his 3 bottles but since he’s asking for 10 cases let’s jack up the price (per our fancy spreadsheet model)’.

Also more sensibly, I dont know how long the stock market performances can be kept up for - the returns in the last decade outstrip what’s available historically (I believe? would need to check), and I do think from an economic perspective the US will start to saturate in many ways in the next few years. But then, I’m a (~65%) passive investor in equities.

Don’t you think the same is true for the fine wine market? In fact I think it very likely that a decade or three of hot stock markets have driven the pricing on fine wine. They are deeply connected.

[R_Frankel]

Back to Latour. Does anyone think the price on the 2013 Grand Vin is going to suddenly go up? Or ever?

[HenryB]

to be fair, it was trading at £2200/6 within a couple of weeks. Had I wanted to sell it then, it would have substantially outstripped the performance of the S&P 500.

And that will remain true of Lafleur for many years to come - 100% return in a day. The question, really, is how I get my hands on 10 cases, rather than 3 bottles.

That’s exactly my point above. You can only buy 3 bottles. When you ask for 10 cases (you and every other aggressive buyer in the market) you are feeding valuable data into their market test. Lafleur’s crack marketing then says ‘Aha! We’ll give Henry his 3 bottles but since he’s asking for 10 cases let’s jack up the price (per our fancy spreadsheet model)’.

Also more sensibly, I dont know how long the stock market performances can be kept up for - the returns in the last decade outstrip what’s available historically (I believe? would need to check), and I do think from an economic perspective the US will start to saturate in many ways in the next few years. But then, I’m a (~65%) passive investor in equities.

Don’t you think the same is true for the fine wine market? In fact I think it very likely that a decade or three of hot stock markets have driven the pricing on fine wine. They are deeply connected.

FWIW, I dont think Lafleur do release in tranches. I think they’re just a heavily allocated single tranche wine with a large secondary market. But that’s of course irrelevant to the point at hand.


No, I dont think 2013 will move. I dont see the pressure upwards.

[Andrew_K]

at least one of my merchants are using it to allocate Latour 14/15.

LOL. In what world does left bank Bordeaux need to be allocated?

If it’s a great vintage that is priced fairly, all the first growths are tightly allocated. It was hard to find much Mouton and Cheval Blanc last year. Most everyone was limiting it to one case. I had to shop around to several vendors to pick up a decent allocation.

[R_Frankel]

I guess there are allocations and there are allocations. Bordeaux 1st allocations are clearly built around managing (some would say manipulating) pricing, not on actual availability.

Hot Burgundy is actually allocated and sold out. In vogue California lists are the same. Want more than zero bottles of MACDONALD (that’s my annual allocation, and I signed up for the list 6 years ago)? Too bad. Want more than one bottle of Rivers-Marie Platt (my actual allocation was zero but I wished for one)? Nope. That’s what I call tightly allocated.

[Keith_Levenberg]

Didn’t 2013 win the worst vintage of the century poll a few weeks ago?

[Mark_Golodetz]

Didn’t 2013 win the worst vintage of the century poll a few weeks ago?

It did. I don’t think it had much competition.

[Jason_Samansky]

I like to be a contrarian and I plan to buy a few bottles. My rationale is the major rating players are only projecting how they think the wine will develop and often misjudge. I have done the same with stocks and I keep on reminding the stock experts when Amazon fell in 2008 by 80% with few takers.

I look at the 2011 Napa harvest which was a poor growing season and have found excellent wines and I look at the 2008 Boudreauxs and think those are better than some of the heralded vintages. Robert Parker seems to be in agreement. My view is knowledgeable, experienced wine makers will make good wines. I don’t expect this to be the wine of the century but I am willing to take a flyer since it could develop into an outstanding wine. Also with wine I like comparing poor vintages to outstanding ones.

[Mark_Golodetz]

I don’t think anybody felt that 2008 was a bad vintage, just not a great one. Not the case with 2013. It has been almost universally panned, and my tasting at the UGC. confirmed how mediocre it was.

I would strongly advise against buying any, because even Latour cannot transcend the awful growing season of 2013. You have close to $500 in your pocket, a multiple if you are going to buy several bottles. Buy VCC. From any number of years, a wine that will give you pleasure over many years. And if that contrarian urge is still there, go for the ‘14, arguably the wine of the vintage, and only considered a great vintage by the brightest and best people on the board.

[John_Glas]

For $380 I can buy a really nice driver that I will get several golf seasons of worth instead of a few nights of wine enjoyment.

[Jason_Samansky]

To each their own, and while I appreciate the input, I am still a buyer. I bought TESLA when it hit 200 and I keep on buying Microsoft . At least if the wine sucks I can impress a few clients.

[HenryB]

For $380 I can buy a really nice driver that I will get several golf seasons of worth instead of a few nights of wine enjoyment.

to be fair, this is a separate discussion point. This is whether $380 on wine makes sense or not, not whether $380 on Latour 13 makes sense or not