So, 2012 was supposed to be this excellent year. I hear that 2013 is just as good. Im not certain of the rumors but, thats what we hear all the time from producers. But you cant disregard the fact that california has been in a drought for many years and the water is drying up. My question is this. And im not trying to be paranoid, but i have not heard any expert express that the current water trend is going to shift any time soon. So, is anybody trying to go a lot deeper on the 2012 and 2013 vintages for their california wines before we have five plus really bad growing seasons?
My understanding is that the drought became much more severe this year. Nearly all of the year’s precipitation in Napa/Sonoma falls between November and March. This winter the rains were only roughly 1/4 of a typical year, taking what had been a moderate drought into severe territory.
xkcd had a great graph on this a couple of months ago: xkcd: California
As for the impact on winemaking, it should vary a lot by specific producer and microclimate. Despite the lack of rain, most dry-farmed vineyards have still received enough rainfall to produce at normal yields this year. For guys who irrigate, it all would depend on their access to water (do they have reservoirs, groundwater, etc?)… if they don’t have enough water their yields will be going down. The problem is cumulative-- if this winter is dry there will be a much bigger impact on production.
That’s the thing about weather. They really don’t know from one season to the next what is going to happen. We’ll just have to wait and see what’s to come this Winter. This year we got a few inches of rain in March after bud break which helped tremendously. Yields are down but I don’t see anyone complaining about fruit quality.
Irrigation will be a huge issue if we don’t get some normal rainfall this year. Wells are running low, irrigation ponds dried up, lakes/reservoirs low, rivers on low flow. The Russian River, for example, is. Lower than I have ever seen it. Popular swimming beaches sport knee deep water at best. Hopefully we have a normal Winter as I really don’t want to see rationing hit up here. Shades of the 70s.
Farmers Almanac predicting a long, heavy winter. May fill the aquifers in Cali, who knows. To be honest, though, I’m no expert but it seems to me that there really aren’t many bad growing seasons in California.
Even bad vintages seem to be excellent by comparison to, say, Burgundy, and certainly compared to my native Virginia.
Even a supposedly crappy year like 2011 has produced slightly edgier and leaner cabs that will age beautifully. 2012 and 2013 were bumper crops, and 2014 appears to be early but still ripe and back to normal or slightly below normal yields.
I think there is more fear in my mind of mediocre or blowsy winemaking in the face of decent weather ruining california wine than there is of profound drought ruining California wine.
There are no “trends” as of yet. Ask this question in 100 years. Maybe 1000. Seriously. In just the past couple of decades California has gone through severe drought, and severe flooding, it’s a year-to-year thing. It has been this way my entire life here in California. It was just a few years ago that the Russian River valley was completely flooded. This article puts it all in perspective:
Where there is a trend is in population growth, and the need for water. That’s on a constant growth curve.