TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

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JohnP
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TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#1 Post by JohnP » June 4th, 2019, 2:14 pm

Total Wine just released 2018 LLC at 2pm local time (PST). Definitely picked up some- the Chateau reports 2016 plus, plus (#frenchaccent)

Even though I've only started buying futures since 2015 vintage, the current vintage buying market feels like a totally different ballgame. Anyone else feeling the squeeze on wine available? Pontet Canet already sold out..

Hopefully, they'll live up to the hype in bottle..

I called this morning and was told Cos D'Estournel should be out any day now, along with Montrose. The two others on my radar.

https://concierge.totalwine.com/bordeaux-futures
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#2 Post by Todd F r e n c h » June 4th, 2019, 2:26 pm

I've been happy with my Total Wine Futures orders - 3 years and counting, though I haven't purchased '17 or '18 from them, only '14-16. Just picked up my last of the '16 futures last week
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#3 Post by C Chen » June 4th, 2019, 3:34 pm

2018 Pichon Lalande at $180 per. Goddamn.
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#4 Post by Mattstolz » June 4th, 2019, 3:53 pm

got the email and by time I had sat down at my computer and clicked the link the Ch Canon was already sold out. Literally 2 minutes.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#5 Post by Mattstolz » June 4th, 2019, 3:53 pm

C Chen wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 3:34 pm
2018 Pichon Lalande at $180 per. Goddamn.
this is pretty much in line with what I've seen from other retailers too. damn rave reviews.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#6 Post by Mark Y » June 4th, 2019, 4:42 pm

is Total Wine cheaper than others? 2018 bdx futures are available at a bunch of places?
Y.e.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#7 Post by Mark Y » June 4th, 2019, 4:43 pm

Mattstolz wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 3:53 pm
C Chen wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 3:34 pm
2018 Pichon Lalande at $180 per. Goddamn.
this is pretty much in line with what I've seen from other retailers too. damn rave reviews.
wow.. u can get 2009/2010 for close to that.. dang..
Y.e.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#8 Post by JohnP » June 4th, 2019, 4:52 pm

Mark Y wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 4:42 pm
is Total Wine cheaper than others? 2018 bdx futures are available at a bunch of places?
I've found them to be comparable, but they only require 50% down which is nice.
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#9 Post by James Lyon » June 4th, 2019, 7:19 pm

I just happened to check the website yesterday afternoon and most of the futures were already available.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#10 Post by BenW » June 4th, 2019, 8:03 pm

Mattstolz wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 3:53 pm
got the email and by time I had sat down at my computer and clicked the link the Ch Canon was already sold out. Literally 2 minutes.
Am I misunderstanding this because I still see Canon available?
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#11 Post by Adam Levyn » June 4th, 2019, 8:20 pm

Canon is available - only Rauzan went crazy fast. A few others have sold out as well.

Their website had an issue when Canon went live so it showed sold out but has since been fixed.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#12 Post by William Anzalone » June 4th, 2019, 8:25 pm

I'm new to BDX Futures. I usually purchase my Bordeaux's on pre-release (a few months before it hits the store) or shortly after the current release (ie purchased a few 2016s in 5/2019). However, this year I decided to purchase a few futures because my son was born in 2018 and I figured if I was ever going to try a future this was the year. So far I've purchased a Canon Mag, a Prichon Lalande Mag and a 750 ml Las Cases, all from Total Wine Concierge. I bought on Total Wine because I was enticed by the 50% down and not 100%.

My thought was the magnums will age a little longer and I'm hopeful to cellar for several decades.

Since I'm new to futures, are there some bottles that significantly increase in price after bottle scores are in and the wine is released? Usually when I purchase my Bordeaux's in the same year as the release the few I've purchased were only a few dollars over Wine Spectator's listed price or is the listed price the release price and not what it would have been at the time of a future purchase? Also, are futures best for formats other than 750ml that I usually don't see at retail (ie 375 and 1.5L)?

Thanks for the guidance on the thought of purchasing futures.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#13 Post by Mattstolz » June 5th, 2019, 5:14 am

BenW wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 8:03 pm
Mattstolz wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 3:53 pm
got the email and by time I had sat down at my computer and clicked the link the Ch Canon was already sold out. Literally 2 minutes.
Am I misunderstanding this because I still see Canon available?
hmm maybe i was TOO fast. gonna have to take a look again!

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#14 Post by Lee Barnard » June 5th, 2019, 8:44 am

William Anzalone wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 8:25 pm
I'm new to BDX Futures. I usually purchase my Bordeaux's on pre-release (a few months before it hits the store) or shortly after the current release (ie purchased a few 2016s in 5/2019). However, this year I decided to purchase a few futures because my son was born in 2018 and I figured if I was ever going to try a future this was the year. So far I've purchased a Canon Mag, a Prichon Lalande Mag and a 750 ml Las Cases, all from Total Wine Concierge. I bought on Total Wine because I was enticed by the 50% down and not 100%.

My thought was the magnums will age a little longer and I'm hopeful to cellar for several decades.

Since I'm new to futures, are there some bottles that significantly increase in price after bottle scores are in and the wine is released? Usually when I purchase my Bordeaux's in the same year as the release the few I've purchased were only a few dollars over Wine Spectator's listed price or is the listed price the release price and not what it would have been at the time of a future purchase? Also, are futures best for formats other than 750ml that I usually don't see at retail (ie 375 and 1.5L)?

Thanks for the guidance on the thought of purchasing futures.
You sometimes see one or two that will pop from the future pricing, but in all honestly, you can usually pick most up years later for the future pricing or future pricing + average yearly storage cost (provenance is the only issue). Especially with TW, you sometimes can even grab them cheaper from the shelves with a 15-20% coupon, although they seem to have started to adjust prices up to account for that. Think futures are good for .375s particularly or if you really, really want one or two produces that could see a pop. Other than PLL and Sociando that I tend to always buy, I generally wait until I can taste the vintage/producers and then purchase what I want once they hit shelves or even a few years later - still purchasing 2014s as I see good deals. Although, PLL seems to be in the category where I should start buying futures.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#15 Post by GregT » June 5th, 2019, 10:27 am

Since I'm new to futures, are there some bottles that significantly increase in price after bottle scores are in and the wine is released? Usually when I purchase my Bordeaux's in the same year as the release the few I've purchased were only a few dollars over Wine Spectator's listed price or is the listed price the release price and not what it would have been at the time of a future purchase? Also, are futures best for formats other than 750ml that I usually don't see at retail (ie 375 and 1.5L)?
The only scores that moved the prices were Parker's scores. He's not reviewing any more , so it's a lot of noise from a horde of critics, none of whom really matter all that much in the world market. I stopped buying futures with the 2001 vintage, and the rationale today is only that you hope for good provenance. Price is almost irrelevant unless you're dying to get a specific producer that you love. But if you avoid the first growths and super seconds, you don't save anything and you lock up your money for a few years in advance. And then there are those few scammers who never deliver. Total is big enough that I'd trust them, but seriously, I'd just wait. And I assume you know which wines you like, but if you're new to Bdx in general, I'd probably try some wines to figure out which ones I like and buy those when they're available.
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#16 Post by Kevin Sidders » June 5th, 2019, 11:01 am

JohnP wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 2:14 pm

I called this morning and was told Cos D'Estournel should be out any day now, along with Montrose. The two others on my radar.
I believe Cos was released today...
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#17 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 5th, 2019, 11:07 am

Pontet is no longer listed on their site (I was able to order last week).

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#18 Post by William Anzalone » June 5th, 2019, 11:22 am

Lee B and Greg T

I appreciate the pointers on ordering futures and thanks for your responses.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#19 Post by JohnP » June 5th, 2019, 2:48 pm

FYI, Cos D'Estournel ($199) & Montrose ($175) is LIVE
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#20 Post by YLee » June 5th, 2019, 3:54 pm

Im taking a pass this vintage's EP.
I dont see the value in it.
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#21 Post by Mattstolz » June 5th, 2019, 5:34 pm

Adam Levyn wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 8:20 pm
Canon is available - only Rauzan went crazy fast. A few others have sold out as well.

Their website had an issue when Canon went live so it showed sold out but has since been fixed.
thanks for the heads up y'all. grabbed my Canons today.
YLee wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 3:54 pm
Im taking a pass this vintage's EP.
I dont see the value in it.
I do have to admit, the prices from most of these wines EP is a little bit crazy. most of these don't seem worth it to me either. Only doing the Canon mentioned above because I have a vertical going and this price isn't too bad for it.

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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#22 Post by Tom Reddick » June 5th, 2019, 9:42 pm

William Anzalone wrote:
June 4th, 2019, 8:25 pm
I'm new to BDX Futures. I usually purchase my Bordeaux's on pre-release (a few months before it hits the store) or shortly after the current release (ie purchased a few 2016s in 5/2019). However, this year I decided to purchase a few futures because my son was born in 2018 and I figured if I was ever going to try a future this was the year. So far I've purchased a Canon Mag, a Prichon Lalande Mag and a 750 ml Las Cases, all from Total Wine Concierge. I bought on Total Wine because I was enticed by the 50% down and not 100%.

My thought was the magnums will age a little longer and I'm hopeful to cellar for several decades.

Since I'm new to futures, are there some bottles that significantly increase in price after bottle scores are in and the wine is released? Usually when I purchase my Bordeaux's in the same year as the release the few I've purchased were only a few dollars over Wine Spectator's listed price or is the listed price the release price and not what it would have been at the time of a future purchase? Also, are futures best for formats other than 750ml that I usually don't see at retail (ie 375 and 1.5L)?

Thanks for the guidance on the thought of purchasing futures.
In the current environment in the United States, I think purchasing Bordeaux futures is,

1. A good idea if you want large formats. Outside of the really large national retailers, I have found that magnums and larger formats are not as frequently available on store shelves as they used to be.

2. Essential if you want half bottles. These have never in my experience been terribly common in retail when you get into the mid and upper range wines, and these days I rarely see them available at all.

3. A good way to go if you are interested in mid-range wines that are among the best rated by the critics. As someone earlier noted, and I have done statistical studies on this in the past, Parker almost single-handedly drove futures pricing and subsequent demand when he was rating Bordeaux. The Wine Spectator has more influence overall, but for higher end wines and buying strategies for serious collectors (i.e. futures)- Parker was it. These days, you kind of have to look at the overall picture. If everyone is giving a very high 90s to 100 point score- that is the new driver. Price matters as well.

As with residential real estate these days- the more expensive a wine is, the less of a hurry there is to secure that wine. If every critic gives a $600 first growth 98-100 points and a $200 "super-second" or "super-third" 98-100 points, the latter wine will evaporate while the first growth is still sitting there for sale. In the world of 10+ years ago, both would have sold through relatively quickly- but not as quickly as the $200 bottle will tend to now.

For 2015 and 2016, I think buying Bordeaux futures made more sense than it has since the 2005s came along. 2018 pricing is testing those limits- and despite the high scores it is a very weather-marked vintage and so something of a risk. While I have some enthusiasm for 2018, the memories of 2003 are still pretty fresh in my mind.

But even recently, I think your strategy of pre-arrival- even though at a higher price- is a very sensible consideration. I have ordered 2018 Leoville Barton and Palmer on pre-arrival. The price is about 15% higher than TW futures- but I can easily beat that return in a broad sense by keeping that money in my pocket until the wines get here. I will probably go ahead and do Montrose on futures to be safe (see next paragraph.)

For 2016, Montrose was the only wine I bought on a true futures basis. I paid about $150 per bottle, and when the distributor reps came through Texas recently doing tastings and offering library releases the 2016 price is now $312.50 per bottle retail. It is more expensive than even 2010, 2009 and 2005. That is still more than current retail for wine already in the supply chain- but gives a very clear picture of where the price is headed. Given the relatively low price of Montrose as a top Bordeaux and the scores the wine received in 2016- it was a no-brainer to me to do futures.

However, Mouton and Leoville Barton I did on pre-arrival- and very recently at that. The price there was not much higher than futures- less than 10% difference- and it proved a wise and easy move. Barton did not have the near 100 point scores, and Mouton- being a very pricey first growth- was not likely to start jumping up in price until at least a year after release (and jump it will, I imagine- but not yet.)
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Re: TotalWine BDX Futures LIVE

#23 Post by JohnP » June 14th, 2019, 4:10 pm

Lafite just posted, $319 split, $639 bottle, $1237 mag. 50% down to secure.
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