Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

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R. Smith
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Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#1 Post by R. Smith » January 13th, 2019, 11:40 am

A friend and I were recently discussing trends in wine, namely the stratospheric rise of Cornas and the decline of Australia form its highs in the late 1990's. What's your prediction on which regions will encounter a similar rise/fall next?
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#2 Post by Brent C l a y t o n » January 13th, 2019, 11:57 am

I can't speak to Cornas.

But the new Australia is the old Australia. There are still a bunch of great classic properties out there and the wines are readily available.

The 'Next' thing that is happening in Australia is a change in style by the new generation. Lots of carbonic maceration, pet nat, concrete, and other stuff like that.

My friend David Forziati, who worked with Ben Hammerschlag for a long long time, is working on setting up an import company to bring in some of these winemakers.

I know there are already a few of these wines in the market, but unfortunately I can't give you any names off the top of my head.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#3 Post by Doug Schulman » January 13th, 2019, 12:32 pm

What an interesting question that is.

I wouldn't be surprised if Argentine Malbec were the next Australia in some sense. There market for that category is highly focused on relatively low price points, plus it's a lot of consumers drinking generic tasting wines whose style could easily be reproduced in so many other places.

As unsure as I am about that, it's even more difficult to predict the Cornas side of the question. Possibly Bierzo because you have such small production there with very high quality at the top and a definite hipster appeal. As the best wines from the past decade or so age, a real interest might develop there. The big difference is obviously that Cornas has had a greater number of producers making great wine for a lot longer, but I could still see it happening for Bierzo.

That being a long-shot, my more confident guess for the Cornas comparison would be Barolo/Barbaresco. There are only a couple of producers whose wines have entered stratospheric prices, and even those haven't had the same sort of aftermarket effect as what you see with certain Cornas wines. There are quite a few other producers in Barolo and Barbaresco making truly outstanding wine, but overall production of that quality level is pretty low, so a significant increase in interest could really influence pricing and availability. The value of most of those producers is still excellent (even after price increases over the past few vintages), so there's the potential for demand to spike. Combine all of that with big aftermarket increases on just a few wines at this point (top vintages of Giacosa within 10 years of release, Burlotto as well), and I think you have the recipe.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#4 Post by Josh Grossman » January 13th, 2019, 12:40 pm

In my opinion it's the things getting buzz (or not) on here; rising: Oregon (both Pinot and Chard), cru Beaujolais, German pinot, old vine Californians (Zin and Petite Sirah especially), Loire Valley, Basilicata/Campania Aglianico, Super Tuscans, Yakimia and Columbia Valley meritage and Syrah, Bandol, Sierra Foothills, Mendocino avas, Castilla-Leo, Austria (maybe), Germany outside Mosel (Nahe, Pfalz, Rheingau, Rheinhessen, Franken), AFWE

falling: S.A. Malbec, Sonoma County Pinot Noir (but not coast), Southern Rhone and Provence, Chianti, Prosecco, Valpolicella, Napa Chardonnay, Trentino pinot grigio, Rioja (with exception to a few iconic producers), orange wine, Paso Robles, don't think Shiraz has bottomed out yet, Parkerized Napa Valley

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#5 Post by IlkkaL » January 13th, 2019, 11:29 pm

I think it is good to remember that Cornas is a tiny appellation where the overall quality is high. That said most of the producers there have not got that hot at all - many are selling their wine for a relatively modest price and there really is no secondary market for them. My guess would be that many of the rising talents of the Northern Rhône in general will see their fame increase in the coming years. Likewise there are producers in pretty much all parts of the region with top notch vineyards and unambitious viticulture/winemaking. As the next generation comes in or the land changes hands new stars will be born.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#6 Post by Otto Forsberg » January 14th, 2019, 5:34 am

Doug Schulman wrote:
January 13th, 2019, 12:32 pm

As unsure as I am about that, it's even more difficult to predict the Cornas side of the question. Possibly Bierzo because you have such small production there with very high quality at the top and a definite hipster appeal. As the best wines from the past decade or so age, a real interest might develop there. The big difference is obviously that Cornas has had a greater number of producers making great wine for a lot longer, but I could still see it happening for Bierzo.
And here I thought Bierzo had entered mainstream and the Galician reds were the hipsters' Bierzo!
That being a long-shot, my more confident guess for the Cornas comparison would be Barolo/Barbaresco. There are only a couple of producers whose wines have entered stratospheric prices, and even those haven't had the same sort of aftermarket effect as what you see with certain Cornas wines. There are quite a few other producers in Barolo and Barbaresco making truly outstanding wine, but overall production of that quality level is pretty low, so a significant increase in interest could really influence pricing and availability. The value of most of those producers is still excellent (even after price increases over the past few vintages), so there's the potential for demand to spike. Combine all of that with big aftermarket increases on just a few wines at this point (top vintages of Giacosa within 10 years of release, Burlotto as well), and I think you have the recipe.
Agree and seeing how Barolo and Barbaresco prices have been on an incline for almost a decade now (pulling the prices of Alto Piemonte wines up along with them), I think they have been on that road for awhile now.

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#7 Post by Michael Martin » January 14th, 2019, 5:41 am

The next Cornas will be pot infused drinks. The next Australia will be corporate crap wine once everyone discovers it’s corporate crap wine.

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#8 Post by Ross Massey » January 14th, 2019, 5:51 am

Next Cornas, Barolo. Next Australia, Napa Cabs (ex-MacDonald)
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#9 Post by Karl K » January 14th, 2019, 5:53 am

Pot-infused drinks a great answer
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#10 Post by rsmithjr » January 14th, 2019, 6:38 am

I feel there are great wines from Allentejo Portugal that don' t get imported here. I had several reds that were great: Herdade do Perdigao Reserve was one I REALLY liked. Can't find it here..... tough to find in Portugal too.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#11 Post by James Billy » January 14th, 2019, 7:08 am

[scratch.gif] Australia = only big Shiraz???

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#12 Post by John Morris » January 14th, 2019, 8:02 am

IlkkaL wrote:
January 13th, 2019, 11:29 pm
I think it is good to remember that Cornas is a tiny appellation where the overall quality is high. That said most of the producers there have not got that hot at all - many are selling their wine for a relatively modest price and there really is no secondary market for them. My guess would be that many of the rising talents of the Northern Rhône in general will see their fame increase in the coming years. Likewise there are producers in pretty much all parts of the region with top notch vineyards and unambitious viticulture/winemaking. As the next generation comes in or the land changes hands new stars will be born.
+1
Ross Massey wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 5:51 am
Next Cornas, Barolo. Next Australia, Napa Cabs (ex-MacDonald)
Prices have run up very steeply on a handful of Barolo producers (e.g., Giacosa, G. Conterno, G. Rinaldi, B. Mascarello) but the price escalation is been much more moderate generally.

It's not really a fair comparison to Cornas, because Cornas is 104 hectares versus 1,734 of nebbiolo in Barolo (both figures for 2004). And the latter doesn't include Barbaresco.

Prices in Cornas also partly reflect succession issues. If you go back 25 years, Clape and Verset were the standout producers. Juge and Michel were on the B+ list. When Verset retired, prices for his wines went stratospheric, as they had for Gentaz-Dervieux's Cote Roties when G-D retired -- they were the last of their generations and had no one to take over. Michel also retired without a direct successor. Of the new generation of producers, only Allemand (who started in the 90s, I believe) has had real cachet and three-digit prices to show for it.

So, not only is Barolo 17x bigger, succession has not been a major issue there. Consumers know that traditions will be carried on. So I don't see the same drivers of crazy price increases there.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#13 Post by Howard Cooper » January 14th, 2019, 2:16 pm

Seems to me that the region that really is due for a rise (and actually this is only a part of a region) is non-classified Bordeaux. I don't think these wines we ever get really expensive because the region is so large, but there are so many really excellent wines there that are totally ignored by most wine lovers. Someday, a Duboeuf or a Guigal is going to come along and figure out a way to market the heck out of these forgotten wines.

I am going to get absolutely roasted for this by the true believers (most of whom are from Germany), but the wine that has gone too extreme (like Australia) and is due for a fall is GG or trocken German wines.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#14 Post by Howard Cooper » January 14th, 2019, 2:18 pm

John Morris wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 8:02 am
Juge and Michel were on the B+ list. When Verset retired, prices for his wines went stratospheric, as they had for Gentaz-Dervieux's Cote Roties when G-D retired --
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#15 Post by John Morris » January 14th, 2019, 2:30 pm

Howard Cooper wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:16 pm
Seems to me that the region that really is due for a rise (and actually this is only a part of a region) is non-classified Bordeaux. I don't think these wines we ever get really expensive because the region is so large, but there are so many really excellent wines there that are totally ignored by most wine lovers. Someday, a Duboeuf or a Guigal is going to come along and figure out a way to market the heck out of these forgotten wines.
Uh... that was Mouton-Cadet (and Barton & Guestier) 30-40 years ago, but I haven't seen those on shelves in years. Maybe it's time for a fresh, mass market brand for this category.
Howard Cooper wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:16 pm
I am going to get absolutely roasted for this by the true believers (most of whom are from Germany), but the wine that has gone too extreme (like Australia) and is due for a fall is GG or trocken German wines.
GG prices are driven by the domestic German market, I believe, so I don't see that happening.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#16 Post by Mark Golodetz » January 14th, 2019, 3:13 pm

I think we have pretty well exhausted the winemakers in regions toiling in obscurity. I thought Madiran might be, but it has not hit the radar of the hip sommeliers, and there is a reason for that; they are not that good young, and not that good with some age.

So I am left with a region that has not only been discovered, but also has seen some significant price rises, and that is Pomerol. Still relatively traditional, incredibly high quality, and best wines outside of Petrus, Le Pin and Lafleur are trading at the same level as top Cornas. I have been accused of not liking Cornas; not true, I like them well enough at $40 but not when it is the same cost as say VCC 2009. For me, in this current crazily priced wine world, Pomerol seems to be a relative bargain.

Disclaimer: I am buying Pomerol as either drinking for my son, or he can sell hopefully for big money.

As for the next big bust, I cannot believe yellow wines haven’t hit the skids.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#17 Post by Howard Cooper » January 14th, 2019, 3:22 pm

John Morris wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:30 pm
Howard Cooper wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:16 pm
Seems to me that the region that really is due for a rise (and actually this is only a part of a region) is non-classified Bordeaux. I don't think these wines we ever get really expensive because the region is so large, but there are so many really excellent wines there that are totally ignored by most wine lovers. Someday, a Duboeuf or a Guigal is going to come along and figure out a way to market the heck out of these forgotten wines.
Uh... that was Mouton-Cadet (and Barton & Guestier) 30-40 years ago, but I haven't seen those on shelves in years. Maybe it's time for a fresh, mass market brand for this category.

John,

If the best you can come up with is Mouton-Cadet and B&G, I think you have made my point. But, in the end I think we agreed anyway.

There is a lot of excellent Bordeaux for $15-30. If only anyone understood it, I think there would be a market for it.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#18 Post by John Morris » January 14th, 2019, 4:01 pm

My point was that Mouton-Cadet and B&G were HUGE sellers in their day, so your idea is good, but not entirely new. Time for a refresh of the category. What the Bordelais industry needs is the Antinori or Guigal of Bordeaux!
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#19 Post by Dan Kravitz » January 14th, 2019, 6:09 pm

Blatantly commercial post:
The next Cornas is Maury Sec.

Blatantly non-commercial post:
The next Australia is California Pinot Noir.

More tha somewhat commercial comment:
I don't think that Argentine Malbec will hit the skids like Australia. I also don't think it's generic. Sure, there's an ocean of inexpensive wine out there that hits the palate with a big burst of jammy but green fruit and pulls a quick disappearing act. That's been tanking for five years. But nobody else (apologies to Washington) does Malbec as well and the best are great. I'm putting my money where my mouth is and looking to import more Argentine Malbec in the ~$20 - 30 range, along with easier things like Cab Franc and Petit Verdot.

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#20 Post by Tom Dawber » January 14th, 2019, 6:18 pm

rsmithjr wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 6:38 am
I feel there are great wines from Allentejo Portugal that don' t get imported here. I had several reds that were great: Herdade do Perdigao Reserve was one I REALLY liked. Can't find it here..... tough to find in Portugal too.
I've been hearing for ten years now that Portugal is the next big thing! There are so many great wines that are exported to the US, I can only imagine the QPR of the wines they keep in the country. But the category still hasn't attracted the attention it deserves, at least not in my experience.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#21 Post by Tom Dawber » January 14th, 2019, 6:22 pm

Howard Cooper wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 3:22 pm
John Morris wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:30 pm
Howard Cooper wrote:
January 14th, 2019, 2:16 pm
Seems to me that the region that really is due for a rise (and actually this is only a part of a region) is non-classified Bordeaux. I don't think these wines we ever get really expensive because the region is so large, but there are so many really excellent wines there that are totally ignored by most wine lovers. Someday, a Duboeuf or a Guigal is going to come along and figure out a way to market the heck out of these forgotten wines.
Uh... that was Mouton-Cadet (and Barton & Guestier) 30-40 years ago, but I haven't seen those on shelves in years. Maybe it's time for a fresh, mass market brand for this category.

John,

If the best you can come up with is Mouton-Cadet and B&G, I think you have made my point. But, in the end I think we agreed anyway.

There is a lot of excellent Bordeaux for $15-30. If only anyone understood it, I think there would be a market for it.
I love it. Who would think that one of the most entrenched, classic regions would be the one most due for a break out, but I think you make a great point. Most consumers "in the know" just assume they can't afford good, or even decent, Bordeaux. But there really is so much great stuff out there in the price point you mentioned.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#22 Post by IlkkaL » January 14th, 2019, 9:42 pm

I think we are talking about two very different things here with Allemand&Juge becoming huge within a select number of wine geeks, resulting in very high prices versus larger groups discovering things like affordable Bordeaux, Alentejano et al. Especially given that the OP used the expression 'stratospheric rise' - do you honestly see that happening to the regions mentioned?
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#23 Post by John Morris » January 15th, 2019, 10:33 am

Yes, I think people haven't read the OP closely. He's not talking about good cru bourgeois Bordeaux.

Based on an e-mail I just received from Flatiron Wines, I'd say Gattinara is now on the list of stratospheric increases, helped along by Roberto Conterno:

Nervi-Conterno, Gattinara "Vigna Valferana", 2014 $104.99
Nervi-Conterno, Gattinara "Vigna Molsino", 2014 $104.99

It's a small appellation and it now has a world-class producer's name attached to one property. That seems like the formula for big moves up.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#24 Post by Dav1d S@wyer » January 15th, 2019, 12:40 pm

Great thread topic.

I'll add a vote to the group saying Alto Piemonte is the next Cornas. Small production, more elegant style, non-international grape, and near an established, pedigreed region for comparative (price and quality) purposes. Oregon would be my second choice.

As for the next Australia, I don't think it's Argentine Malbec. There's still so much quality for ridiculously low pricing and stylistically it's not THAT spoofed. I'd guess high octane CA red blends for U.S. consumers. As a college senior newly obsessed with wine a decade ago, I cut my teeth drinking high point, low price Aussie and Spanish wines with creative marketing. I quickly moved on just like today's new wine entrants drinking CA red blends eventually will. Where they go will be fascinating to watch because this new "generation" of American wine drinkers is very large.

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#25 Post by Ramon C » January 15th, 2019, 12:53 pm

John Morris wrote:
January 15th, 2019, 10:33 am

It's a small appellation and it now has a world-class producer's name attached to one property. That seems like the formula for big moves up.
I'm skeptical of this formula only because a few years back a similar question was posed here and Jura was being thrown about by a few responders, myself included. The basis then was that Pierre Overnoy wines and Ganevat (irrc) were reaching un-reachable status. Although I haven't kept up with my Jura buying, I haven't heard/seen that the region had made the Cornas-style move up from those years.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#26 Post by John Morris » January 15th, 2019, 1:24 pm

I think Jura will always be at the margins because the wines are very idiosyncratic -- very light reds, oxidized whites. Gattinara is more like other wines people know.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#27 Post by Jörgen Lindström Carlvik » January 15th, 2019, 4:00 pm

The next Australia…? It's a pretty big country, to say the least... Well, I think it's gonna be Australia, no need to look elsewhere.

There's so many young, talented and daring winemakers here creating some really interesting and new versions of well known varieties, and at the same time exploring and planting new ones, mainly from Italy and Spain (and Portugal). So, even if there are already some very cool newcomers, a bunch load will emerge within shortly.

Cornas, which I love is different; small and special. I can understand its hype in recent years. But there's still plenty of great Saint Joseph and Crozes-Hermitage to be found at fair prices. In the southern Rhone; Lirac and Cairanne. Many great producers and there's plenty of bargains to be found IMHO.

Roussillon (Maury reds, etc) will strengthen their "brand" heavily within shortly too.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#28 Post by ky1em!ttskus » January 15th, 2019, 5:31 pm

CA PN (of which, I drink a good bit) is the next Australia and Barolo is the next Cornas.

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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#29 Post by Marc Frontario » January 15th, 2019, 6:18 pm

Next hipster grape....Teroldego, Sicily?

Could Loire be the next Cornas? ..if Rougeard can command such high prices I assume others could.
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Re: Who will be the next Cornas and who will be the next Australia?

#30 Post by Kevin Porter » January 15th, 2019, 6:28 pm

I like the idea of Australia as the next northern Rhône but I think alto Piemonte is more likely.

CA Pinot has been the next Australia for some time now. I wonder if luxury cuvees of cru Beaujolais aren’t the next CA pinot?

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