Reddit post on collecting wine

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Fred Davis
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Reddit post on collecting wine

#1 Post by Fred Davis » February 16th, 2020, 10:33 pm

Read this post on collecting wine and thought posting it here might spark some good debate.

What do people here think?

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#2 Post by Lee Short » February 16th, 2020, 10:43 pm

I think I'm not his target audience. In fact, I can't imagine being in his target audience.

That's what I think.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#3 Post by Fred Davis » February 16th, 2020, 10:58 pm

I think he gives some clues as to why some types of very good wines might be mispriced (on the low side). Some of it isn't logical though. Just because a collector doesn't want certain bottles (e.g. because they don't meet a set of generic criteria) doesn't necessarily mean it's not excellent wine. Sure, it's important and one would want to know if it's been stored well. But, "if it’s on sale, it’s on sale for a reason and you should probably skip it unless you’re going to drink it that week or that month," is a ridiculous general statement to any straight-thinking person.

Anyway, for people who want to drink and have no intention of selling--like me--the post is helpful.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#4 Post by Andy Sc » February 17th, 2020, 2:20 am

I agree with all the points.

I would add too points:

1) check wine-searcher.com to learn more about the availability of a wine (older vintages) and the price difference to the newly offered wines as well as historic price performance. This gives you a better idea about the future price development. In that sense: it is true that sweet wines don't really have a lot of price appreciation but it might be still worth cellaring Yquem.

2) If you really wanna make profits with selling wine, do as much research as possible. The more you know about the wines, the higher the likelihood that you don't buy crap or lame ducks. Even though I don't sell wines (roughly 2.5% of my cellar are in the "sell" category but because I don't want them anymore), I do a lot of research (my Bordeaux research tracks 14 critics, weighs them, looks at availability, past price performance, past wine performance, absolute and relative pricing, etc. etc.). This is a lot of fun, you learn a lot, save money (or spend less stupid money) and drink better wine in the end and it helps predicting the future price development more accurately (I made a back-testing for the 2015 vintage recently, and my choices outperformed a broader top 60 wines portfolio by more than 30%).
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#5 Post by T. Williams » February 17th, 2020, 2:35 am

I don't think I am the target audience either.

It sounds like some reasonably good advice for the "my cellar shows off how much money I have even though I don't actually like wine" crowd. These same people are whom I blame for classic muscle car prices skyrocketing into the stratosphere.

My life philosophy: drink it if you like it, and drive it like you stole it.

With this advice I'd have to get rid of all my wines from obscure regions because those won't appreciate in value. Bullsh*t. I'll keep them in my cellar and enjoy them at my leisure when they are fully mature.

One last note, since I'm feeling chippy this morning. The author has a cellar full of German Riesling that he doesn't think will apprciate? He obviously isn't drinking at the top end of the riesling scale since the secondary market on top riesling is nuts!

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#6 Post by Brian Gilp » February 17th, 2020, 4:23 am

or realize you’re collecting a cellar that has more than a thousand bottles—which means you or your family will sell it
Honestly, he lost me here. A thousand bottles may be a lot for some people but for others that’s maybe only three years worth of wine. Having a thousand bottles or even two thousand doesn’t guarantee that someone will be selling wine in the future.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#7 Post by Mich@el Ch@ng » February 17th, 2020, 4:35 am

I agree with some of the concepts in the post.

I think my situation is common here, though. I’m not really buying for resale purposes but the vast majority of my cellar is burgundy/champagne with a little Barolo and northern Rhône which will likely appreciate pretty well. Drinkers are <10% of the cellar and even those may age well and appreciate, like ldh/LRA Rioja. Not sure about the domestic stuff like bedrock/Carlisle but it will certainly be good to drink.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#8 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » February 17th, 2020, 5:16 am

Brian Gilp wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 4:23 am
or realize you’re collecting a cellar that has more than a thousand bottles—which means you or your family will sell it
Honestly, he lost me here. A thousand bottles may be a lot for some people but for others that’s maybe only three years worth of wine. Having a thousand bottles or even two thousand doesn’t guarantee that someone will be selling wine in the future.
Ain’t that the truth, I’m guessing most people here either have more than 1000 or are building to have more than that. A retirement cellar of mature wines for be consumed at a moderate pace requires more than a 1000. I certainly have wines in my cellar that will never appreciate, my daily drinkers, Chinons, Zins, Beaujolais, etc., but those are for regular weekly consumption. If it turns out I end up not liking something, I normally pass it along to others that might. My really good stuff, that I know has appreciated, some stupidly, those will be consumed, good health willing.

I’m glad that I’m not a collector. Just a drinker. The goal for me is simple: buy the wines I like to drink, controlling the storage conditions so that I own the provenance. Pop them when I think they are ready, and some to enjoy during their long evolution. Wish I had started doing that much much earlier.

Now that said, I have some friends with 1000+ of super premium Cabs adorning beautiful glass door cellars, and some of those wines seem to move at a glacial pace off of their racking. Some are from those new pop-up California winners that are hot for a few years then sorta melt away into obscurity, and I wonder about all those.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#9 Post by Sarah Kirschbaum » February 17th, 2020, 5:52 am

T. Williams wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 2:35 am

One last note, since I'm feeling chippy this morning. The author has a cellar full of German Riesling that he doesn't think will apprciate? He obviously isn't drinking at the top end of the riesling scale since the secondary market on top riesling is nuts!

TW
This one makes perfect sense to me. While a few super high end wines have gone through the roof and received a lot of press, the number that have is minuscule. The vast majority of even top quality Rieslings do not appreciate in price much (unless you happen to have been collecting for long enough to have original cases of '59s or some such) and are challenging to sell at all, let alone for a profit. Not that most of us who love and buy Riesling are looking for a profit. No one who truly has a "cellar full of Riesling" has a cellar full of those very few bottlings anyway - there aren't enough of them made and access is almost impossible, even with a lot of money.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#10 Post by CJ Beazley » February 17th, 2020, 6:00 am

I bought some Gonon St. Joseph on sale for $29.00 once...I guess I’ll take it back, I had no idea it was dumb move.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#11 Post by HMechbal » February 17th, 2020, 6:04 am

I agree with all the point he made, it's just that most of us here have or are building a cellar for their personal consumption and not as an investment. Money we put is expenditure not an investment we hope will generate a financial profit.

I do think about re-sell value and secondary market if I'm going to buy from a winemaker I couldn't taste yet or enter in a new region. It's not one of the main purchasing criteria but it's just more reassuring to know that if I feel that my new case of Gonon is not to my taste or that I can find better value I'll be able to re-sell it. Or that if I end up not liking wines from let's say Piemont there is a market for it to at least break-even.

I say that but I've yet to taste Gonon, I started the wine game after he got absurdly expensive in France and elsewhere :(
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#12 Post by David Glasser » February 17th, 2020, 6:09 am

Great advice for investors and speculators, not for drinkers.

I can understand his perspective as someone whose job has him frequently appraising cellars being liquidated as part of an estate. But of those who cellar wine to drink, how many think of it as a significant financial component of their estate? Maybe a vinous asset to pass on to your children if you know they are into wine.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#13 Post by Mark Golodetz » February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am

I think in general it is one of the best pieces on wine as an investment I have read in some years. That being said, it is a smallish market and getting smaller. Much of the current speculation depended on a buoyant Chinese market, and that is beginning to fall apart.

Already hearing about some dumping onto the UK market.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#14 Post by s.nellessen » February 17th, 2020, 6:22 am

that '16 produttori barbaresco is a drinker and should appreciate in value...esp mags.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#15 Post by A.Gillette » February 17th, 2020, 6:42 am

I think much of the advice in the post seems sensible, except that as an asset class, wine strikes me as a pretty poor choice to begin with. I think the correct starting point is probably to buy what you think you are going to drink and to put your investment dollars elsewhere.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#16 Post by Jeff_M. » February 17th, 2020, 7:25 am

My cellar is for my own personal consumption. I have yet to sell any bottles. Anything I open that I find I don't like or if my tastes change I will open any remaining bottles for a group of non-wine drinkers at a get together so at least it gets drunk. Buying and holding wine as an investment does not appeal to me in any way.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#17 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » February 17th, 2020, 7:42 am

+1 on many of the responses above. I’ve never sold a bottle. I like the idea of knowing that if I had to liquidate, I could probably get 50-75% of what I paid, but if I ever get to that point, I have a lot bigger things to worry about. This is a hobby and a passion, not an investment vehicle.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#18 Post by Neal.Mollen » February 17th, 2020, 7:49 am

He's not writing for me; he's talking in generalities about the cellars people are asking him to buy. I am sure the advice is generally sound for that purpose. Although his brush is awfully broad and could induce some pretty big mistakes.

And some of the advice seems just plain weird. Always buy from the same guy at the same shop and don't shop around for the best price? Does not sound like good advice, especially for someone buying as an investment. Perhaps he's talking to the person who does not know, and doesn't want to know, about wine, and in that case it might be a good idea to attach oneself to a single person who can scout for you. Otherwise, it is stupid advice.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#19 Post by Fred Davis » February 17th, 2020, 8:04 am

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 7:42 am
+1 on many of the responses above. I’ve never sold a bottle. I like the idea of knowing that if I had to liquidate, I could probably get 50-75% of what I paid, but if I ever get to that point, I have a lot bigger things to worry about. This is a hobby and a passion, not an investment vehicle.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#20 Post by Jeff Skinner » February 17th, 2020, 8:07 am

So, I’m not going to get rich off of the case of Willamette Pinot under my bed?

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#21 Post by R. Frankel » February 17th, 2020, 8:16 am

I think this post is fairly sensible, it’s just not for us. It was better than I expected for Reddit, as a more general audience board (though maybe I need to take a look over there!). What seems really surprising to me are the implications of this. I.e. there are a large number of buyers building 500+ bottle cellars who aren’t wine geeks, don’t do much research, perhaps aren’t so price sensitive, and make decisions based on low quality sources (e.g. pretty wine magazines, Suckling scores, and retail sales guys).

The funny thing is - I bet we Berserkers would be salivating (literally) over the stuff the cellar middlemen won’t touch - way below release price Rieslings, Zinfandels, California Syrahs, Alto Adige Nebbiolos, Napa Cabs, from anyone other the top 5 or 10 names, etc. etc. Where does all that stuff go? K&L, Winebid, Envoyer?

@Neal - yes that one confused me, doesn’t really make a ton of sense.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#22 Post by matt d » February 17th, 2020, 8:27 am

R. Frankel wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 8:16 am
The funny thing is - I bet we Berserkers would be salivating (literally) over the stuff the cellar middlemen won’t touch - way below release price Rieslings, Zinfandels, California Syrahs, Alto Adige Nebbiolos, Napa Cabs, from anyone other the top 5 or 10 names, etc. etc. Where does all that stuff go? K&L, Winebid, Envoyer?
I know a guy that buys cellar and lots of times i will get calls for that random stuff. He will take the unopen cases of Bordeaux and Burgundy and stuff. Last year i was able to pick up a couple cases of midd 2000's bedrock and carlisle. For were does it go if the cellar is big enough the guy i know will buy it all but just offer almost nothing for the stuff you listed. And the people selling want it gone.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#23 Post by R. Frankel » February 17th, 2020, 9:07 am

matt d wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 8:27 am
R. Frankel wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 8:16 am
The funny thing is - I bet we Berserkers would be salivating (literally) over the stuff the cellar middlemen won’t touch - way below release price Rieslings, Zinfandels, California Syrahs, Alto Adige Nebbiolos, Napa Cabs, from anyone other the top 5 or 10 names, etc. etc. Where does all that stuff go? K&L, Winebid, Envoyer?
I know a guy that buys cellar and lots of times i will get calls for that random stuff. He will take the unopen cases of Bordeaux and Burgundy and stuff. Last year i was able to pick up a couple cases of midd 2000's bedrock and carlisle. For were does it go if the cellar is big enough the guy i know will buy it all but just offer almost nothing for the stuff you listed. And the people selling want it gone.
Makes sense Matt. A good friend to know!
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#24 Post by K. Tr@n » February 17th, 2020, 9:20 am

Seems reasonable for all points. You do want to establish a long term relationship with someone you can trust and continue to buy from for your investment portfolio. Doesn't make sense to save a little money with completely new seller when it comes to investment.

For people who buy to drink, some points do apply even for different reasons.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#25 Post by Dennis Borczon » February 17th, 2020, 11:03 am

It is still amazing to me how there is some perceived pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that some folks think about when they buy wine. This is a particularly stupid bet in to the future as all indicators are that millennials are not looking to collect wine, even if they have the means. China appears to have their own issues currently and famously they are a culture that likes to gamble. Hong Kong? I would be very nervous now as a Hong Kong collector if I were relying on this as some sort of nest egg. That leaves the relative handful of billionaire collectors that trade the stuff like impressionist paintings. I know I am never going to be able to buy those, and don't really miss them. High end bordeaux has hit a relative wall of price/value, Burgundy eventually will too. Best I can hope for is for some of my wines to retains some value if the grim reaper comes knocking at my door earlier than I expect. Keeping records? Ha! That is a problem my heirs will have to figure out on their own. Wine is the one thing I do that i could care less about the $$ I spent and what they are "worth" day by day. I have a 401 K for that.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#26 Post by MBerto » February 17th, 2020, 11:53 am

Most of the money I've made flipping wine has been on stuff I faked. That's where the real money is.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#27 Post by Marcus Dean » February 17th, 2020, 12:09 pm

MBerto wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 11:53 am
Most of the money I've made flipping wine has been on stuff I faked. That's where the real money is.
Still laughing [cheers.gif]

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#28 Post by Paul Jaouen » February 17th, 2020, 12:18 pm

CJ Beazley wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:00 am
I bought some Gonon St. Joseph on sale for $29.00 once...I guess I’ll take it back, I had no idea it was dumb move.
Did you buy this to drink or resell it?
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#29 Post by Dennis Borczon » February 17th, 2020, 12:27 pm

MBerto wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 11:53 am
Most of the money I've made flipping wine has been on stuff I faked. That's where the real money is.
Funny, and not funny [wow.gif] Wonder how those folks who bought the old scotch felt when it was tested and found to be fake. It would be very interesting to see how many older fake bottles of wine are floating around the auction markets. Too bad there is no equivalent wine testing method.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#30 Post by Marcu$ Stanley » February 17th, 2020, 1:05 pm

Dennis Borczon wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 11:03 am
It is still amazing to me how there is some perceived pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that some folks think about when they buy wine. This is a particularly stupid bet in to the future as all indicators are that millennials are not looking to collect wine, even if they have the means. China appears to have their own issues currently and famously they are a culture that likes to gamble. Hong Kong? I would be very nervous now as a Hong Kong collector if I were relying on this as some sort of nest egg. That leaves the relative handful of billionaire collectors that trade the stuff like impressionist paintings. I know I am never going to be able to buy those, and don't really miss them. High end bordeaux has hit a relative wall of price/value, Burgundy eventually will too. Best I can hope for is for some of my wines to retains some value if the grim reaper comes knocking at my door earlier than I expect. Keeping records? Ha! That is a problem my heirs will have to figure out on their own. Wine is the one thing I do that i could care less about the $$ I spent and what they are "worth" day by day. I have a 401 K for that.
This, exactly. Unless you are in one of a half a dozen gilt-edged billionaire Burgundies fine wine is not going to appreciate a ton over the long term. I am pretty confident that I could liquidate my cellar for a solid 80-85% of what I spent on it, which is OK downside insurance for something I own in order to consume, but look at what e.g. the top 2016 Bordeaux prices are doing -- very little growth despite consensus it is a great vintage and a 25% tariff to spur price appreciation.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#31 Post by Michael O'Brien » February 17th, 2020, 2:15 pm

I buy to drink, not sell. What I like to drink has changed significantly over the years so I am glad I didn't go "all in" on any one wine or any one vintage. I would have been loaded up with wine and still have nothing to drink. I suspect that I am one of the older guys on this board (no wisecracks from those that know me please) and I have been working my inventory down for several years. Rarely do I hold more than 500 bottles now. Consumption and purchases are about equal each year (~300) so inventory levels don't vary much. Wine is just one of the things in my house that my children won't want. My intention is to gradually reduce my inventory to about 250 bottles of really good, drink now wine and hold that level. That way, maybe what is left will find a home but try finding a home for 1,000 or more bottles. There aren't many homes available.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#32 Post by CJ Beazley » February 17th, 2020, 2:18 pm

Paul Jaouen wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 12:18 pm
CJ Beazley wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:00 am
I bought some Gonon St. Joseph on sale for $29.00 once...I guess I’ll take it back, I had no idea it was dumb move.
Did you buy this to drink or resell it?
I use it as the base for my LaLa counterfeits.
Kidding aside, like many here I've never sold a bottle.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#33 Post by Nathan V. » February 17th, 2020, 5:45 pm

I was actually prepared to hate it, but there is sound advice there. Number 5, 7 and 10 are particularly important (and tied together).

A lot of people aren't prepared for the haircut they need to take on most of the wine in their cellar if it comes time to sell. When you have a few thousand bottles, it makes sense not to overload on stuff that you don't think you'll drink in a reasonable number of years. Monitoring consumption and redistribution of space has forced me to buy less than I would of some wines than I otherwise would while making space for others.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#34 Post by Arv R » February 17th, 2020, 7:44 pm

Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
I think in general it is one of the best pieces on wine as an investment I have read in some years. That being said, it is a smallish market and getting smaller. Much of the current speculation depended on a buoyant Chinese market, and that is beginning to fall apart.

Already hearing about some dumping onto the UK market.
I agree too, it seems like a sensible piece, from someone who has had to disappoint many families and executors with dollars & commas in their dreams.

I also agree with Alfert's comment on 'owning the provenance' which is good logic for cellaring one's own favorite estates, even if it hardly makes econ sense. The reddit author is right on about the stickies in particular, but even there, even with dessert wines being a bit 'tougher' than dry reds, I'd still rather wear the storage risk myself. There's enough disappointment with multi decade cellaring, and adding to it by backfilling doesn't help.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#35 Post by Arv R » February 17th, 2020, 7:48 pm

MBerto wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 11:53 am
Most of the money I've made flipping wine has been on stuff I faked. That's where the real money is.
I have to fake it too, when I smile politely and nod my head, when people pour me Vin Jaune.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#36 Post by C Chen » February 17th, 2020, 8:07 pm

This is pretty sound advice. When Reddit Wine hits the levels of Reddit NBA, WB is in serious trouble 🤪
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#37 Post by Phil M » February 18th, 2020, 6:50 am

The Reddit post strips away any rationalization that our cellars represent an “investment”. It is also exactly what I would love to show someone after I made a (lowball) offer for their cellar. [snort.gif]
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#38 Post by John Morris » February 18th, 2020, 8:56 am

David Glasser wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:09 am
Great advice for investors and speculators, not for drinkers.
Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
I think in general it is one of the best pieces on wine as an investment I have read in some years.
+1

Seems very astute and thorough for people who are buying in the hope of seeing their wines appreciating substantially. Lots of illusions punctured here that needed puncturing.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#39 Post by J a y H a c k » February 18th, 2020, 9:13 am

Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
. . . Chinese market, and that has fallen apart. . . .
FIFY - My very good inside sources advise me that it is really, really bad, even worse than reported. Streets are deserted, businesses are shut down with the expectation that it will last at least two months, schools are shut until at last May and major international businesses are not functioning. Luxury items are easy to avoid under those conditions.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#40 Post by RyanC » February 18th, 2020, 9:22 am

J a y H a c k wrote:
February 18th, 2020, 9:13 am
Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
. . . Chinese market, and that has fallen apart. . . .
FIFY - My very good inside sources advise me that it is really, really bad, even worse than reported. Streets are deserted, businesses are shut down with the expectation that it will last at least two months, schools are shut until at last May and major international businesses are not functioning. Luxury items are easy to avoid under those conditions.
It's even a mess here. Houston's massive and vibrant (and exceptionally tasty) Chinatown is really suffering as people irrationally stay away from Chinese-immigrant-operated restaurants, stores, and malls. It's sad.
C@ughey

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#41 Post by Mike R » February 18th, 2020, 10:23 am

Michael O'Brien wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 2:15 pm
I buy to drink, not sell. What I like to drink has changed significantly over the years so I am glad I didn't go "all in" on any one wine or any one vintage. I would have been loaded up with wine and still have nothing to drink. I suspect that I am one of the older guys on this board (no wisecracks from those that know me please) and I have been working my inventory down for several years. Rarely do I hold more than 500 bottles now. Consumption and purchases are about equal each year (~300) so inventory levels don't vary much. Wine is just one of the things in my house that my children won't want. My intention is to gradually reduce my inventory to about 250 bottles of really good, drink now wine and hold that level. That way, maybe what is left will find a home but try finding a home for 1,000 or more bottles. There aren't many homes available.
I don't ever want a fellow wine enthusiast to be burdened with estate planning, so since I'm a really nice guy, so I hereby volunteer to serve as the home for those 250 bottles whenever you decide that you no longer want wine bottles in your cellar :)
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#42 Post by Markus S » February 18th, 2020, 11:31 am

J a y H a c k wrote:
February 18th, 2020, 9:13 am
Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
. . . Chinese market, and that has fallen apart. . . .
FIFY - My very good inside sources advise me that it is really, really bad, even worse than reported. Streets are deserted, businesses are shut down with the expectation that it will last at least two months, schools are shut until at last May and major international businesses are not functioning. Luxury items are easy to avoid under those conditions.
China will be fine. It's our inflated market giving me the jeebies.
$ _ € ® e . k @

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#43 Post by Bdklein » February 18th, 2020, 11:42 am

RyanC wrote:
February 18th, 2020, 9:22 am
J a y H a c k wrote:
February 18th, 2020, 9:13 am
Mark Golodetz wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 6:16 am
. . . Chinese market, and that has fallen apart. . . .
FIFY - My very good inside sources advise me that it is really, really bad, even worse than reported. Streets are deserted, businesses are shut down with the expectation that it will last at least two months, schools are shut until at last May and major international businesses are not functioning. Luxury items are easy to avoid under those conditions.
It's even a mess here. Houston's massive and vibrant (and exceptionally tasty) Chinatown is really suffering as people irrationally stay away from Chinese-immigrant-operated restaurants, stores, and malls. It's sad.
I live on Long Island . My local Chinese takeout has been quieter over the last 2 weeks or so. And our business in Asia is way down, and we don’t see any turnaround for a few months .
Bruce Klein

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#44 Post by Shay h arnoy » February 18th, 2020, 12:56 pm

I think its a good post with reasonable points for the general public who might be intrigued by collecting wine.
I buy my wine to drink and I haven't really thought about selling any of it.
My biggest motivation to buy right now is availability of coupons/deals (wine.com, wineaccess.com, Envoyer). WB has a constant theme of 'Nice wines are so expensive now, I am glad I bought my Grand cru burgundy/favorite producer years ago'. That has had me thinking that the trend will continue (see for example the post talking about the 2018 pricing) and its worthwhile to invest now for future consumption. I am also bummed out by the transaction fees on auctions as the total price ends up being quite expensive relative to discounts you can find on current release wines.

Should I not have such FOMO and be more patient? (Total cellar size will be 400 or so bottles, though could expand to 750 if pushed to leverage more crates and fewer racks. )
[drinkers.gif]

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#45 Post by Betty C » February 18th, 2020, 1:04 pm

I don't collect wine as an investment, so I don't find that post particularly helpful.
Ch00

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#46 Post by Hank Victor » February 18th, 2020, 2:54 pm

Jeff Skinner wrote:
February 17th, 2020, 8:07 am
So, I’m not going to get rich off of the case of Willamette Pinot under my bed?
[snort.gif]
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Take a chance, Columbus did..

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#47 Post by lleichtman » February 18th, 2020, 3:10 pm

It would make for an interesting poll here as to who sells wine. I don't sell any out of a 2500 bottle collection but I wonder, if I still have a lot when I pass on, how will my inheritors sell my wine.
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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#48 Post by Joe G a l e w s k i » February 18th, 2020, 4:12 pm

It seems like he's talking about people that don't know anything about wine and did not drink their cellars. I'm positive I'm not in the first camp and I hope I won't be in the 2nd.

I am kind of two-faced when it comes to wine. There are certain bottles that, due to their price, give me some pause. Will I be able to at least recoup my money if I were to sell it? Because I buy low (meaning I shop around and violate laws 2, 5 and 7) I am fairly confident that I could sell all my wines that cost me more than $100 and in totality at least break even.

For all the wine I bought that was less than $100 a bottle, I bought it to drink it. It is a sunk cost, the expense has been paid. If I die and my heirs are left to deal with 100 bottles of Carlisle, 100 bottles of non-vintage champagne and 100 bottles of stickies, that's their problem.

Obviously, I'm very good at justifying my behavior.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#49 Post by Nathan Smyth » February 18th, 2020, 5:11 pm

Marcu$ Stanley wrote: Best I can hope for is for some of my wines to retains some value
I don't think demand has much to do with the financial value of wine anymore - I wouldn't be surprised if we've moved on past Peak Wine and are now heading towards Peak Bourbon.

As far as I can tell, wine prices are moved by SUPPLY, or, more specifically, by the relative absence of supply.

If the Blue Nun folks could figure out how to make Keller G-Max by the hundreds of thousands of cases per year, then that style of wine would quickly fall from $2000 down to $20.

And if the Chinese could figure out how to recreate Vosne Romanee somewhere on the Steppes of Central Asia, then DRC-RC would collapse from $30,000 down to $30.
Reddit Guy wrote:There is precious little American wine that retains its value and even less that appreciates.
California is proving to be capable of producing darned nearly an infinite supply of high-anthocyanin high-fruit-ester high-residual-sugar high-alcohol wines, most of which are largely indistinguishable from one another.

Until somebody finds a combination of terroir & technique in California which produces a truly unique [& irreproducible] wine, the state won't be able to pose any threat to G-Max or DRC-RC.

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Re: Reddit post on collecting wine

#50 Post by Nathan Smyth » February 18th, 2020, 5:34 pm

Reddit Guy wrote:Unless you're an expert... Don't go to the cheap place. Don't buy from someone because they're nice. Don't deal w random people in a store you like.
Neal.Mollen wrote:And some of the advice seems just plain weird. Always buy from the same guy at the same shop and don't shop around for the best price?
Can you remember back when you were a newbie, and you trusted the advice of the salesmen?

Or even the advice of the Wine Spectator?

Salesmen are not just taught but are ORDERED [at the risk of being fired] to move the wine which can't move itself.

3 bottles of a $5000 GC Burgundy, with 98 points from Meadows and 99 points from Tanzer, will evaporate within five minutes of the email being sent to the Big Lumber guys.

Whereas 200 cases of a $29.99 Garnacho, with 86 points from Jeb Dunnuck, might sit there in the store gathering dust from now until the end of time.

So which wine will the owners & the managers be ordering the sales staff to shove down the throats of the customers?

[And it'll a fireable offense if a salesman instead suggests the $24.99 Syrah with 95 points from James Suckling.]

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