2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

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K_F_o_l_e_y
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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#51 Post by K_F_o_l_e_y » October 18th, 2019, 5:54 pm

Mike Reff wrote:
October 18th, 2019, 6:43 am
Is this starting to ship?
Next week.
Cheers,
/<evin


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~ Boëthius, in Consolation of Philosophy

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#52 Post by Robert M yers » October 18th, 2019, 9:38 pm

Kris Patten wrote:
October 17th, 2019, 9:05 pm
Robert M yers wrote:
February 20th, 2019, 11:02 am
I’ve never gotten a Mag and I’ve been on for 12 years. I didn’t see the wish option on this release if there was one.
Odd. Did you ever ask for them? My first vintage was 2003 and on my first letter I mailed in I wrote I'd be interested in mags or large formats and got an offer for Atlantis mags, followed by Ode to E mags.
There used to be a request box but it’s no longer there? I really don’t “need” them at this point so I’ve never written to ask directly.

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K_F_o_l_e_y
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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#53 Post by K_F_o_l_e_y » October 27th, 2019, 4:16 pm

Box is kinda cool. Now what do I do with it?
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Cheers,
/<evin


"Ah! Dull-witted mortal, if Fortune stands still, she is no longer Fortune."
~ Boëthius, in Consolation of Philosophy

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#54 Post by joeduncan » November 13th, 2019, 1:07 pm

Mine arrived today. Anyone crazy enough to pop one any time soon?

I also grabbed a couple of bottles of the white which I have no experience with. Any comments on how they are young vs with some age?

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#55 Post by Jonathan Sirot » November 13th, 2019, 2:04 pm

K_F_o_l_e_y wrote:
October 27th, 2019, 4:16 pm
Box is kinda cool. Now what do I do with it?
Would look pretty cool as a design on the back of a motorcycle jacket. Then you could recycle the wood in the fireplace and still enjoy the art !

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#56 Post by S. Stevenson » November 13th, 2019, 2:31 pm

And, so much for flipping. One would tent to LOSE $300-$400 per case if auctioned based on the 2014 vintage.
Stan

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#57 Post by joeduncan » November 13th, 2019, 4:37 pm

S. Stevenson wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 2:31 pm
And, so much for flipping. One would tent to LOSE $300-$400 per case if auctioned based on the 2014 vintage.
I don't want to condone flipping, and perhaps I'm missing something, but what do you base that on? At this point last year (ie., equivalent for 2014 eleven confessions), winebid's estimate says $2500, vs $1500 purchase cost. Granted they now estimate ~$1950, and the last couple of boxes went cheaper, but still over list (roughly the cost with shipping depending on your particular state tax). On winebid you'd also pay roughly 15% as seller of course so that looks a bit worse, but I'd be surprised if they couldn't be unloaded at cost. In fact, winebid already has a bid for this week's auction at $1950 and the last one they had sold for $2400 in their history.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#58 Post by Ron F r e e d » November 13th, 2019, 4:47 pm

joeduncan wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 1:07 pm
Mine arrived today. Anyone crazy enough to pop one any time soon?

I also grabbed a couple of bottles of the white which I have no experience with. Any comments on how they are young vs with some age?
Hold the whites at least a year before opening. Best 2-5+ years after release IMHO.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#59 Post by c fu » November 13th, 2019, 4:57 pm

S. Stevenson wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 2:31 pm
And, so much for flipping. One would tent to LOSE $300-$400 per case if auctioned based on the 2014 vintage.
Just saw a 6 pack on winebid for $2400 before the buyers premium (after BP it was 2808)
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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#60 Post by Kris Patten » November 13th, 2019, 9:09 pm

c fu wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 4:57 pm
S. Stevenson wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 2:31 pm
And, so much for flipping. One would tent to LOSE $300-$400 per case if auctioned based on the 2014 vintage.
Just saw a 6 pack on winebid for $2400 before the buyers premium (after BP it was 2808)
Smells like a $400 loss.....
ITB

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#61 Post by Mark Y » November 13th, 2019, 9:40 pm

Kris Patten wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 9:09 pm
c fu wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 4:57 pm
S. Stevenson wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 2:31 pm
And, so much for flipping. One would tent to LOSE $300-$400 per case if auctioned based on the 2014 vintage.
Just saw a 6 pack on winebid for $2400 before the buyers premium (after BP it was 2808)
Smells like a $400 loss.....
It’s around $1800 all in including tax and shipping. How come 2400 is a 400 loss? Is seller premium that bad? Haha
Y.e.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#62 Post by joeduncan » November 13th, 2019, 9:53 pm

It's 1500 plus shipping and tax. Nowhere near 2400. I don't know if I'm missing the joke here but these are bizarre comments.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#63 Post by Kris Patten » November 14th, 2019, 6:36 am

Mark Y wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 9:40 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 9:09 pm
c fu wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 4:57 pm


Just saw a 6 pack on winebid for $2400 before the buyers premium (after BP it was 2808)
Smells like a $400 loss.....
It’s around $1800 all in including tax and shipping. How come 2400 is a 400 loss? Is seller premium that bad? Haha
Poor use of my sarcasm button Mark....
ITB

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#64 Post by Mark Y » November 14th, 2019, 6:52 am

Kris Patten wrote:
November 14th, 2019, 6:36 am
Mark Y wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 9:40 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 13th, 2019, 9:09 pm


Smells like a $400 loss.....
It’s around $1800 all in including tax and shipping. How come 2400 is a 400 loss? Is seller premium that bad? Haha
Poor use of my sarcasm button Mark....
Ohhh got it lolll I don’t sell on auction so wasn’t sure. Hahah
Y.e.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#65 Post by S. Stevenson » November 14th, 2019, 11:34 am

For those who didn't read my post carefully, I said the 2014 vintage. Last several 6 packs sold for:

I7200568 1 $1,680 Sep 29, 2019
I7197244 1 $1,680 Sep 29, 2019
I7136886 1 $1,770 Aug 11, 2019
I7080106 1 $1,770 Jun 23, 2019

Sellers premium 17%, net ~ $1400

Cost of wine from SQN ~ $1700 = -$300. Not to mention the cost of money.

This year it's up for the 1st sale, but tends to trend downward as time goes on.

Bottom line, you ain't getting rich flipping these unless you get into a time machine and sold the 2010, 2012 or 2013 vintage (though each progressively trended down in those years from the 2010 forward).
Stan

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#66 Post by joeduncan » November 14th, 2019, 12:36 pm

S. Stevenson wrote:
November 14th, 2019, 11:34 am
For those who didn't read my post carefully, I said the 2014 vintage. Last several 6 packs sold for:

I7200568 1 $1,680 Sep 29, 2019
I7197244 1 $1,680 Sep 29, 2019
I7136886 1 $1,770 Aug 11, 2019
I7080106 1 $1,770 Jun 23, 2019

Sellers premium 17%, net ~ $1400

Cost of wine from SQN ~ $1700 = -$300. Not to mention the cost of money.

This year it's up for the 1st sale, but tends to trend downward as time goes on.

Bottom line, you ain't getting rich flipping these unless you get into a time machine and sold the 2010, 2012 or 2013 vintage (though each progressively trended down in those years from the 2010 forward).
Or the 2015 that just sold for 2400, right? I mean, that's a better example. I don't know why those last few 2014s sold cheap, but they were selling at mid-2000s upon release too.

Anyway, I think buying these to flip them and make money is bad, so I'm not trying to encourage it, I just think you're cherry-picking a couple of cheap sales to make a point that isn't holding up based on the actual recent sales of 2015 (or the earlier sales of 2014).

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#67 Post by markjchambers » November 14th, 2019, 1:12 pm

I agree, unless you have older bottles (2010 EBA, or earlier), there's no money to be made in flipping.
Winebid premiums are stiff. it costs 16% (15% + 1% insurance) to sell and 17% to buy. The Estate box cost me ~$1700 delivered to my door. I would have to sell the box for ~$2000 to break even. And what would be the point of that? When I was on the waiting list 15 years ago and trying to find the wines in the secondary market, the estate boxes often went for >$3500, sometimes over $5000. If you look at Stockholm syndrome, I think that's still going for $600 a bottle. Recent stuff, regardless of scores, is going for a more modest premium over release price - 30% versus double or triple. And if you look at a "bad" year (2011), Patine is listed just about at the release price. I guess it's a good thing if you're looking on the secondary market.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#68 Post by Dennis Borczon » November 14th, 2019, 1:48 pm

Don't want to sound morbid about this guys, but SQN peaked in price on the secondary market when Manfred had his accident and it was not clear he would recover. This is common in the art market when it is known an artist is about to die or just passed on. They are not making any more pieces of art so the existing works spike in price. The bubble in the SQN market cooled off when it appeared that Manfred would be back producing vintages again and that the supply of wine over time will gradually increase as vineyard sources expand. Add to this the non-Parker factor and you take the non out of the Sine Qua. Jeez, maybe the people who buy now will just have to enjoy the wines for what they are and not how hard they are to get.
Just imagine what would happen to the price of Musigny if the vineyard could be expanded and more juice produced....

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#69 Post by Dennis Borczon » November 14th, 2019, 1:49 pm

Or Henri Jayer could be resurrected and start making Vosne again!

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#70 Post by Kris Patten » November 14th, 2019, 8:03 pm

If I was a flipper, good thing I still have all Estate back to 2003 and mags....should make up for my 2014 forward.....if I was a flipper.
ITB

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#71 Post by RMann » November 15th, 2019, 4:02 pm

Hi all, great points on the economics of "flipping." It really depends on the wine whether you make a little or lose a little, for recent vintages. But for people who want to retain their allocations but not keep every bottle, wine auctions are a great solution to getting some of your money back. And as you note, the secondary market is a great source for buyers who couldn't get on the list or only want a few bottles every now and then. Minor note, just to set the record straight on a few comments regarding WineBid seller's premiums, they are on a sliding scale based on the size of the consignment. So a $2,500 consignment will have a higher premium than a $25,000 consignment than a $250,000 consignment, etc. as one would expect. Hope everyone enjoys your allocations and please share if you open any and how they're drinking!
Russ Mann, CEO WineBid

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#72 Post by Mark Y » November 15th, 2019, 10:26 pm

Fu has $25MM of consignment.. what's his seller premium? ;)
Y.e.

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#73 Post by JosephW » November 16th, 2019, 5:19 pm

My box just arrived.

I never flip but after waiting 10+ years to finally get this I don't even know if I can bring myself to open the box.

I'm considering selling it and just getting off the list and buying wine I'm going to drink rather than check the prices of and convince myself to never pop over lost value.

Crazy?
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#74 Post by Kris Patten » November 16th, 2019, 6:00 pm

JosephW wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 5:19 pm
My box just arrived.

I never flip but after waiting 10+ years to finally get this I don't even know if I can bring myself to open the box.

I'm considering selling it and just getting off the list and buying wine I'm going to drink rather than check the prices of and convince myself to never pop over lost value.

Crazy?
Drink 'em, my favorite bottle is the one just off the truck.
ITB

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#75 Post by JosephW » November 17th, 2019, 10:31 pm

Kris Patten wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 6:00 pm
JosephW wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 5:19 pm
My box just arrived.

I never flip but after waiting 10+ years to finally get this I don't even know if I can bring myself to open the box.

I'm considering selling it and just getting off the list and buying wine I'm going to drink rather than check the prices of and convince myself to never pop over lost value.

Crazy?
Drink 'em, my favorite bottle is the one just off the truck.
I thought about it and I'm just going to sell it. Finally getting on the list was more exciting than receiving the wine.
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#76 Post by Kris Patten » November 18th, 2019, 11:59 am

JosephW wrote:
November 17th, 2019, 10:31 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 6:00 pm
JosephW wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 5:19 pm
My box just arrived.

I never flip but after waiting 10+ years to finally get this I don't even know if I can bring myself to open the box.

I'm considering selling it and just getting off the list and buying wine I'm going to drink rather than check the prices of and convince myself to never pop over lost value.

Crazy?
Drink 'em, my favorite bottle is the one just off the truck.
I thought about it and I'm just going to sell it. Finally getting on the list was more exciting than receiving the wine.
Your loss. Estate wines are awesome.
ITB

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#77 Post by Mark Christenson » November 20th, 2019, 1:48 pm

Kris Patten wrote:
November 18th, 2019, 11:59 am
JosephW wrote:
November 17th, 2019, 10:31 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 16th, 2019, 6:00 pm


Drink 'em, my favorite bottle is the one just off the truck.
I thought about it and I'm just going to sell it. Finally getting on the list was more exciting than receiving the wine.
Your loss. Estate wines are awesome.
+1 to both Kris' comments :-)
"...the thrall of reason, fool's gold for the bright."

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#78 Post by JosephW » November 21st, 2019, 2:51 am

Mark Christenson wrote:
November 20th, 2019, 1:48 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 18th, 2019, 11:59 am
JosephW wrote:
November 17th, 2019, 10:31 pm


I thought about it and I'm just going to sell it. Finally getting on the list was more exciting than receiving the wine.
Your loss. Estate wines are awesome.
+1 to both Kris' comments :-)
Feel free to send an offer then but I'm guessing you won't put your money where your mouth is when it is in fact your money...
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#79 Post by Mark Christenson » November 21st, 2019, 6:20 am

JosephW wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 2:51 am
Mark Christenson wrote:
November 20th, 2019, 1:48 pm
Kris Patten wrote:
November 18th, 2019, 11:59 am


Your loss. Estate wines are awesome.
+1 to both Kris' comments :-)
Feel free to send an offer then but I'm guessing you won't put your money where your mouth is when it is in fact your money...
Hi Joseph,

No offense intended. Kris’ comments that I was agreeing with were “drink ‘em, my favorite bottle is the one first off the truck” and “estate wines are awesome” both of which seem pretty innocuous to me. I paid around $1,650 for my boxes—are you a seller at that price?
Last edited by Mark Christenson on November 21st, 2019, 6:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
"...the thrall of reason, fool's gold for the bright."

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#80 Post by JosephW » November 21st, 2019, 6:40 am

Mark Christenson wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:20 am
JosephW wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 2:51 am
Mark Christenson wrote:
November 20th, 2019, 1:48 pm


+1 to both Kris' comments :-)
Feel free to send an offer then but I'm guessing you won't put your money where your mouth is when it is in fact your money...
Hi Joseph,

No offense intended. Kris’ comments that I was agreeing with were “drink ‘em, my favorite bottle is the one first off the truck” and “estate wines are awesome”. I paid around $1,650 for my boxes—are you a seller at that price?
If it means sharing the gift of wine with people who can appreciate it, I won't count pennies.
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#81 Post by Mark Christenson » November 21st, 2019, 6:49 am

JosephW wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:40 am
Mark Christenson wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:20 am
JosephW wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 2:51 am


Feel free to send an offer then but I'm guessing you won't put your money where your mouth is when it is in fact your money...
Hi Joseph,

No offense intended. Kris’ comments that I was agreeing with were “drink ‘em, my favorite bottle is the one first off the truck” and “estate wines are awesome”. I paid around $1,650 for my boxes—are you a seller at that price?
If it means sharing the gift of wine with people who can appreciate it, I won't count pennies.
I’m a buyer for the same delivered price I’ve already paid. I’m in San Diego. If you can get the wine here we can do a deal.
"...the thrall of reason, fool's gold for the bright."

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#82 Post by JosephW » November 21st, 2019, 6:52 am

Mark Christenson wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:49 am
JosephW wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:40 am
Mark Christenson wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 6:20 am


Hi Joseph,

No offense intended. Kris’ comments that I was agreeing with were “drink ‘em, my favorite bottle is the one first off the truck” and “estate wines are awesome”. I paid around $1,650 for my boxes—are you a seller at that price?
If it means sharing the gift of wine with people who can appreciate it, I won't count pennies.
I’m a buyer for the same delivered price I’ve already paid. I’m in San Diego. If you can get the wine here we can do a deal.
I thought we were messing around but if you want it for a great price, the box is yours.

I'm in orange county.
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#83 Post by Mark Christenson » November 21st, 2019, 7:34 am

Excellent! I have a friend who may be driving through on Saturday. He/you could do the hand-off if you’re okay with that. We could coordinate it such that when you and he meet, I can, at that time, send the payment via PayPal and you could confirm, then both you and I are protected. Unless you’re comfortable with him handing you a paper check, which also works for me. He’d be coming up the 405. And now that I’ve typed this I think maybe we can continue to coordinate via PM, as much as everybody else may enjoy this :-)
"...the thrall of reason, fool's gold for the bright."

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#84 Post by JosephW » November 21st, 2019, 8:23 am

Mark Christenson wrote:
November 21st, 2019, 7:34 am
Excellent! I have a friend who may be driving through on Saturday. He/you could do the hand-off if you’re okay with that. We could coordinate it such that when you and he meet, I can, at that time, send the payment via PayPal and you could confirm, then both you and I are protected. Unless you’re comfortable with him handing you a paper check, which also works for me. He’d be coming up the 405. And now that I’ve typed this I think maybe we can continue to coordinate via PM, as much as everybody else may enjoy this :-)
I'm right where the 405 ends so perfect. We can work out the details through PM but yes, entertaining. [cheers.gif]
- Joseph Wilk

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Re: 2015 SQN Eleven Confessions Offer

#85 Post by markjchambers » November 21st, 2019, 10:11 am

I'd be a buyer, but I'm in Ohio and the whole "private" shipping issue makes it moot. Maybe someone in Ohio doesn't want their allocation.

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