“Cabernet is a zero these days”: Dan Berger on Napa Cabernet in trouble

In the Napa Valley Register, Berger details an alleged substantial decline in demand for Napa Cabernet.
The article is fairly long on anecdote and short on data, but he claims that this is a phenomenon that has been developing due to a number of factors, including collectors needing less wine, competition from prestigious Pinot Noirs, the perceived decrease in age-worthiness of the more “modern“ style, and increasing frugality among many wine buyers.

Addendum: The author says, “Months ago, as this was developing, I spoke with Bear Dalton…”
It was pointed out to me that Mr. Dalton died over a year and a half ago. So, that makes me wonder about some aspects of this story.

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He missed “over pricing”. It’s not “frugal” to not want to pay for over priced wine.


Edit: I actually rtfa- this is called out much more so than the above summary eludes.

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Jeez- I expected the author to finish by writing, “Make Napa Great Again!”

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Well, to paraphrase his actual ending, it reads more like “Make Napa like Cathy Corison Again!”

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Walla Walla has some good deals!

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It’s too crowded, no one goes there anymore, Y. Berra.

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Napa is overrated.

Dan Kravitz

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Napa has good deals time to time. I go to Napa to buy things when I’m working on my car.

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Berger is often mis-informed and mis-stated. Enough said.

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Who is Dan Berger?

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Many years ago I had a conversation with Dan about Cabernet in Mendocino county. He suggested the best way to prune Cab vines in Mendo would be with a D-8 caterpillar. Personally I think with the heat in inland Mendo, there are many other things he that make better wine…Grenache, Petite Sirah , and Italian varieties.

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I agree with this. That’s a handful of anecdotes. Citing a mid-summer Ciatti grape buying report really doesn’t translate into a long-term downward trend in consumer habits. More useful is the Silicon Valley Bank annual report: Wine Industry Trends and Report 2023 | Silicon Valley Bank. Premium wineries (although that’s a really broad category) had a bang-up 2021.

He might be right, but I don’t think he’s proven his case.

Ha! [wow.gif]

I just got back from Napa on Sunday and a few things are evident. First, real estate for any type of property near 29 is outrageous. Second, whether price adjustments in pursuit of margin or simply inflation, wine prices have for many wineries seemingly doubled over the past 8 or 9 vintages. Wines that were once just rock solid but expensive wines, are now seeking cult-like prices (Far Niente). Oddly, some that were once cult-like in pricing have now, by simply not raising prices, become relative bargains (Schrader).

In 18 years, wines that were among some of the better wines in the region have gone from about $60 to about $150. The better wines have gone from $75-90 to like $225.

I think what Napa has is a corner on Napa cabernet, and I don’t mean that dismissively. There really isn’t a whole lot out there quite like it. There are some very modernly styled Super Tuscans that are getting pretty damn close but for now, high end Napa cab is hard to replicate. While Washington undeniably makes some good wine, it isn’t making Napa cab.

For me, though, the combination of pricing and style has made Napa cab terrible QPR. There is a tremendous amount of wine I’d like to buy f0r $225 a bottle, but not much of it is Napa cab. What’s happened for me is a steady decline in purchasing. My Napa cab now falls into two distinct categories: (i) wines I’ve bought while physically in Napa; and (ii) older Napa cabs that I buy to backfill, mostly pre-2002.

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Cabernet is dead at retail

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ah yes, frugality is a major problem among wine buyers these days.


lol

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I see this as a 3-4 page thread [popcorn.gif]

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I know a lot of people who don’t have Burgundy money and love Cab. And they buy a ton of it. Just not so much Napa.

Napa is delicious, but reminds me of that line from the Incredibles “when everyone is special, no one is”.

With enough reading, asking questions here, asking winemakers, understanding winemakers style and who they work with, vineyards, farmers, etc etc you can find any style Napa cab you want. Some are made exactly like the ones from the 70s and 80s and sure, some of those might cost you more than others, as every wine from that area does. There’s more variety than ever before. Not sure what I’m missing.

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Name five really high quality napa cabs made like the ones from the 70s. Now name five really high quality napa cabs made like the ones from the 80s.

Now for me personally, name five really high quality napa cabs made like the ones from 1991-1994.

I think I’ve only had a couple of high quality relatively recent Napa cab releases in the 13s abv. Corison and the odd Kapscandy. If you’ve got some great list, I’d love it if you shared it here. And please, I’m not trying to be a dick. I don’t know them. That’s the style of Napa cabs that I prefer. I don’t know any Napa cabs in the mid-high 12s like most wines from the 70s, and based on my experiences with wine in the 70s, that’s probably a good thing. Low 13s like many 80s cabs seem super rare. High 13s like early 90s are also very rare, but you can find a couple of good producers who can really make those wines shine alright. What I usually get in this discussion is 4 posts before someone starts talking about Forman without realizing they’ve been making 15.2% abv cabs for a decade+. I dogged on Far Niente for pricing above, but at least they’re well located and seem somewhat committed to hanging around in the 14s at least (probably high 14s, unfortunately). I would love to see a shift to a more red-fruited and less new french oak style and while many wineries have dialed back the high abv and percentage new oak, it’s still very prevalent.

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