Shafer HSS 2018

Offer is out @ $375…thoughts? Great wine, but Seems like a pretty firm bump in price.

Hard pass. I dropped off the list last year anyways but still got the email. Cheaper at retail if you know how to shop and really want it.

I went in on it last year given the triple hundo scores even though at $300 it was available at that price in retail. It’s one of my wife’s favorites but at $375 that’s a big price jump and I’m guessing I’ll be able to find it cheaper at retail.

Gotta get a return off that $250m some how…

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Still amongst the most consistently produced, well-rated, and priced well below many of the other Cabs that lack the pedigree of HSS.

So price increase from $300 to $375 in one year?

One of my favorite wines but I have to think hard at $375.

No it was already over 300 last year. I think they restrained at 310 when it really could have been 325. So it’s 15 percent jump. It was one of the lower priced wines at its producer band. Given the increases of other wines in its peer group, it’s probably fairly priced. They way it looks fair is when the secondary and direct from cellar door is nearly the same… then it seems to be fair. Inflation is high and global distribution channels are more open so seems like a fair assessment of possible future prospects, depending on how you price in the possibility of recession. Given the purchase, if it was financed then there is a greater need to price up - also 2018 vintage should be stronger than 2017 vintage. (Early reviews of wine may differ). Everyone knows that 2020 vintage is going to be skipped so the volume for sale of 2018 and 2019 vintages is over a longer time horizon.

Really no one can predict the future price trajectory of the wine as we don’t know what the new ownership will do to the sales channels. Historical Past pricing does not predict the current price. (Unless you have itb discounts available to you).

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May have been $325 or $330 winery direct last year. I got it sub $200 stacking discounts at retail.

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$375 is just hilarious.

price anomalies in wine feels like the norm. A few Wines from France go from 25 to 300 % increases in one year. Similar scenario in Germany, I feel it’s a little less in Italy generally staying int the 25 to 60% range.

A rising tide lifts all boats. Inflation was 9% last year no?

I’m pretty much out of the $200+ wines, but I had considered making an exception for HSS, to which I have a longstanding emotion attachment and a vertical going back to 2001. At $375, though, I’m out.

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FYI- for accuracy.
Recent release pricing from my records:
2018- $375
2017- 325
2016- 300
2015- 310
2014- 295
2013- 285

It’s a 15% increase 2017 to 2018, but only a 27% increase over the last 4 years. It’s worth noting Shafer cut pricing in 2020 after Covid hit, they deserve credit for that.

It’s getting pricey for sure. Shafer was one of the first mailing lists I got on, so I have a lot of history with them and their wine. Love the wine and the visits have always been special. For me once wine gets into this pricing tier I need an excuse to keep buying it and most definitely don’t want to be given a reason not to buy. After the sale earlier this year, I knew this buying decision would be a tough one.

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2014 Cristal is $400 locally.

I also got the offer even though the 2016 vintage was my last purchase and I skipped last year. Definitely passing this year (and future offers, too). If I want it, I’m sure I’ll be able to find it locally for less than the mailing list price. I can still buy the 300 point 2016 at a LWS for essentially the same price as I paid ordering direct.

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PSA-Ludwig Fine Wine is offering the 2018 as a pre-arrival for $324.99 (all in with shipping and handling from each almost a $75 saving). I emailed them and they will be receiving the wine in 8/2022. I purchased a bottle and maybe skipping the official Shafer HSS allocation.

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Shafer was first out to say no 2020 wines, seems like we will be seeing a lot of Napa jumps with the lost vintage. After the Montelena thread, I have to say that if a wine deserves to be $375 it’s probably Shafer, and the $150 for Montelena Estate isn’t unjust either.

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Saw that as well. Might go that route to pick up a couple of wines to keep the vertical going (except for '17 which I skipped). Why pull $100 out of my wallet to hand over to a Korean luxury company if there’s not reason to. I’m guessing ~$325 is where this will settle out in retail, which is what the triple hundo '16 is going for now.

Still enjoy the wine. But with the price increases and expensive shipping stopped buying with 2014. Glad I still have several cases for the future.

I have purchased from the mailing list for more 20 years. I will pass on offer because I recently turned 69 but mostly because of the price increases.