Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#351 Post by HenryB »

as we say in IT

theres nothing more permanent than a temporary fix

same thing applies to price increases.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#352 Post by Rodrigo B »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
All of these situations are contingent on the retailer being able to purchase additional cases at an unadjusted price.

More than anything, I think distributors and importers are going to be a big portion of the subscribers. If that’s the case, the retailer is unlikely to be able to purchase additional cases at a more favourable cost, their distributor has also seen the scores early and knows what’s up and adjusts the price.

So net, in the long run there may not be a big benefit to the early preview for retailers if their distributors are also on the platform and adjusting prices accordingly. If so, there’d be little incentive for retailers to sign up then as they wouldn’t really gain that edge, but rather just add on an extra expense.

There hasn’t been much conversation around it, but one of the biggest perks I see of the new service is insight into the editorial calendar. I can see importers and distributors purchasing the subscription so that they have insight into what wines and regions are coming. That way they’re not releasing their wines prematurely prior to scores. Even without the early preview of scores, this would be extremely valuable to them as they can prepare inventory an be queued up to adjust prices.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#353 Post by KyleC »

C h e n

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#354 Post by Tvrtko C. »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
And, at long last, someone puts their finger on it. Thank you, Brian [cheers.gif]
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#355 Post by Tvrtko C. »

KyleC wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:20 pm
[barf1.gif] [barf1.gif] [barf1.gif]
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#356 Post by Jeff_M. »

KyleC wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:20 pm
One of the comments on this post:

thunder_funk
How does ‘Vinous Preview’ fit into this inspiration?

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#357 Post by Tvrtko C. »

Jeff_M. wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:41 pm One of the comments on this post:

thunder_funk
How does ‘Vinous Preview’ fit into this inspiration?

hitsfan
Well, if you ask me, only in terms of the very first sentence: "It is not the critic who counts". And even that at a stretch in Galloni's case.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#358 Post by HenryB »

Jeff_M. wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:41 pm One of the comments on this post:

thunder_funk
How does ‘Vinous Preview’ fit into this inspiration?

hitsfan


Comment now deleted - no idea if it was by the poster, or AG.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#359 Post by Jeff_M. »

HenryB wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:50 pm
Jeff_M. wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:41 pm One of the comments on this post:

thunder_funk
How does ‘Vinous Preview’ fit into this inspiration?

hitsfan


Comment now deleted - no idea if it was by the poster, or AG.
Guessing AG because when I clicked the link the comment had been reposted as of a few minutes ago. AG must be censoring comments.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#360 Post by HenryB »

yep, comments keep getting deleted.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#361 Post by Ron Erickson »

Has there been a Squirely invasion?
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#362 Post by A.Altman »

That is my post on IG. I didn’t delete it but it was gone when I checked. I reposted. I also encouraged him on his previous post to join this conversation since I know he has posted here recently. Doubt he will, but couldn’t hurt to ask publicly.

If he is indeed moving forward with ‘Vinous Preview’ what really bothers me is the lack of transparency. It’s one thing to move forward with something that he knows will be controversial with subscribers. Especially when it comes to their perceived level of independence as a publication. It’s another thing entirely to try to sneak it by subscribers. I am not saying that is what he is doing or the intent, as none of us appear to know how far along this thing is. But as of right now it certainly appears that way. Especially since other critics have already weighed in and yet he remains silent.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#363 Post by Jürgen Steinke »

At the end this made clear that ethics do not count. Parker once named his company Wine or Consumer Advocate. It does not last long until it was clear that the consumer had no profit because many if not all wines exploded in price due to high scores. Speculation with wine took place. And retailers realized that the scores are the best marketing tool they have. We see a flood of 90+ point wines these days. Coincidence?

I have no clue what Galloni`s intention was when he founded his own enterprise. But he made one thing clear now. The subscribers and the wine lovers are no longer the key target. It is fine to get 120 bucks a year from them. But would´t it be fine to maximize the profit by deals with the trade even if the loyal subscribers have to pay that bill at the end? Forget ethics. That is old world. What is 120 bucks from one client while I can probably get 24.000 from one other? The very important target group.

I am astounded that Galloni and his team obviously thought that this is ok and will work. When I look at the motivation I am still not sure if it is insolence, arrogance, ignorance or a mixture of everything.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#364 Post by HenryB »

Jürgen Steinke wrote: April 29th, 2021, 1:28 pm At the end this made clear that ethics do not count. Parker once named his company Wine or Consumer Advocate. It does not last long until it was clear that the consumer had no profit because many if not all wines exploded in price due to high scores. Speculation with wine took place. And retailers realized that the scores are the best marketing tool they have. We see a flood of 90+ point wines these days. Coincidence?

I have no clue what Galloni`s intention was when he founded his own enterprise. But he made one thing clear now. The subscribers and the wine lovers are no longer the key target. It is fine to get 120 bucks a year from them. But would´t it be fine to maximize the profit by deals with the trade even if the loyal subscribers have to pay that bill at the end? Forget ethics. That is old world. What is 120 bucks from one client while I can probably get 24.000 from one other? The very important target group.

I am astounded that Galloni and his team obviously thought that this is ok and will work. When I look at the motivation I am still not sure if it is insolence, arrogance, ignorance or a mixture of everything.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#365 Post by Tvrtko C. »

Jürgen Steinke wrote: April 29th, 2021, 1:28 pm When I look at the motivation I am still not sure if it is insolence, arrogance, ignorance or a mixture of everything.
Based on what I've seen so far, I conclude the motivation is a) to strive valiantly, b) to actually strive to do the deeds, c) to spend himself in a worthy cause, d) to know the triumph of great achievement, e) to never be with those cold souls who are neither here nor there, or something along these lines [cheers.gif] [cheers.gif] [cheers.gif]
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#366 Post by Marcus Goodfellow »

Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:18 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
All of these situations are contingent on the retailer being able to purchase additional cases at an unadjusted price.

More than anything, I think distributors and importers are going to be a big portion of the subscribers. If that’s the case, the retailer is unlikely to be able to purchase additional cases at a more favourable cost, their distributor has also seen the scores early and knows what’s up and adjusts the price.

So net, in the long run there may not be a big benefit to the early preview for retailers if their distributors are also on the platform and adjusting prices accordingly. If so, there’d be little incentive for retailers to sign up then as they wouldn’t really gain that edge, but rather just add on an extra expense.

There hasn’t been much conversation around it, but one of the biggest perks I see of the new service is insight into the editorial calendar. I can see importers and distributors purchasing the subscription so that they have insight into what wines and regions are coming. That way they’re not releasing their wines prematurely prior to scores. Even without the early preview of scores, this would be extremely valuable to them as they can prepare inventory an be queued up to adjust prices.
I think you’re underestimating the power of the bigger retailers. There’s very little doubt that bigger distributors and importers will sign up.

But the vast majority of the time, there are more wines than spots on the shelf. When a wine with energy comes along, the first thing distributor sales reps do is make sure that their big accounts get the right size slice of the pie. A big retailer will know the previous pricing(in Oregon distributors are required to post pricing monthly) and if future placements are in jeopardy, few distributors will gouge out a one time bump. Palmer might be different, but not the $18.99 Chianti.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#367 Post by Rodrigo B »

Marcus Goodfellow wrote: April 29th, 2021, 1:50 pm
Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:18 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
All of these situations are contingent on the retailer being able to purchase additional cases at an unadjusted price.

More than anything, I think distributors and importers are going to be a big portion of the subscribers. If that’s the case, the retailer is unlikely to be able to purchase additional cases at a more favourable cost, their distributor has also seen the scores early and knows what’s up and adjusts the price.

So net, in the long run there may not be a big benefit to the early preview for retailers if their distributors are also on the platform and adjusting prices accordingly. If so, there’d be little incentive for retailers to sign up then as they wouldn’t really gain that edge, but rather just add on an extra expense.

There hasn’t been much conversation around it, but one of the biggest perks I see of the new service is insight into the editorial calendar. I can see importers and distributors purchasing the subscription so that they have insight into what wines and regions are coming. That way they’re not releasing their wines prematurely prior to scores. Even without the early preview of scores, this would be extremely valuable to them as they can prepare inventory an be queued up to adjust prices.
I think you’re underestimating the power of the bigger retailers. There’s very little doubt that bigger distributors and importers will sign up.

But the vast majority of the time, there are more wines than spots on the shelf. When a wine with energy comes along, the first thing distributor sales reps do is make sure that their big accounts get the right size slice of the pie. A big retailer will know the previous pricing(in Oregon distributors are required to post pricing monthly) and if future placements are in jeopardy, few distributors will gouge out a one time bump. Palmer might be different, but not the $18.99 Chianti.
Interesting insight about Oregon distributors, would be interesting to know if other states are similar.

And you’re right, that there may still be opportunities for retailers to profit from information asymmetry with smaller importer and distributors. And even with bigger players they may be enough meat on the bone where all along the supply chain to profit incrementally more from it.

I’m not quite sure the price adjustments with new scores are one time bumps though. A lot of times there will be an attempt to make the new adjusted price stick going forward for subsequent vintages. That Chianti that was adjusted to $24.99 the next vintage may perhaps not fetch $24.99, but it'll almost certainly shoot for, and I'd imagine able to sell well, at an amount higher than $18.99.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#368 Post by Jörgen Lindström Carlvik »

Tvrtko C. wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:37 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
And, at long last, someone puts their finger on it. Thank you, Brian [cheers.gif]
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#369 Post by R Scott Hughes »

I have to admit that it is hard for me to get excited about this. I don't chase points and if a wine I enjoy gets priced out of where I think the value is, I move on and find something else to buy. There is absolutely no shortage of good (and great) high QPR wine out there and I find that seeking these wines out makes my wine journey a little more interesting. A couple of thoughts:

(1) If there is as much money in play as others ITB have suggested, it would be absolutely naïve to think that this is not going on already on a large scale. Greed is a powerful force - and it gets greatly amplified when lots of zeros are in play. AG had the temerity (or would it be audacity) to ask for the bribe in public, but he certainly isn't the first or only reviewer to capitalize on the insider knowledge that they create. Again, I give him props for at least doing it in public even if he badly misread the expected consumer response.

(2) It seems like there are two score thresholds being bantered about - the 98-100 point already expensive wines and the mid-priced wines getting 94ish+. Given that a wine that has consistently scored in one of these buckets already has that score priced in, we are only talking about wines that receive scores that are much higher than expected. Realistically, how many wines can he apply surprise scores to and maintain credibility? Is it even .1% of the overall market? 0.01%. Sure, for a big distributor it only takes a few per year to make this pay off but I cannot imagine the impact to the average consumer being even noticeable.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#370 Post by M.Kaplan »

The focus of this discussion has become dominated by economic theory and classified Bordeaux, which is a drop in the wine universe. I've read that all of Bordeaux, classified and not, annually produces something less than 600 million bottles. World wide annual wine production is in excess of 33 BILLION bottles. Giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt, 33B/600M=1.8% of annual global wine sales... In my opinion, the focus of the discussion on the economics of the Bordeaux wine trade is overweighted.
Last edited by M.Kaplan on April 29th, 2021, 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#371 Post by B Stewart »

HenryB wrote: April 29th, 2021, 1:32 pm
Jürgen Steinke wrote: April 29th, 2021, 1:28 pm At the end this made clear that ethics do not count. Parker once named his company Wine or Consumer Advocate. It does not last long until it was clear that the consumer had no profit because many if not all wines exploded in price due to high scores. Speculation with wine took place. And retailers realized that the scores are the best marketing tool they have. We see a flood of 90+ point wines these days. Coincidence?

I have no clue what Galloni`s intention was when he founded his own enterprise. But he made one thing clear now. The subscribers and the wine lovers are no longer the key target. It is fine to get 120 bucks a year from them. But would´t it be fine to maximize the profit by deals with the trade even if the loyal subscribers have to pay that bill at the end? Forget ethics. That is old world. What is 120 bucks from one client while I can probably get 24.000 from one other? The very important target group.

I am astounded that Galloni and his team obviously thought that this is ok and will work. When I look at the motivation I am still not sure if it is insolence, arrogance, ignorance or a mixture of everything.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#372 Post by Jeff Leve »

M.Kaplan wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:47 pm The focus of this discussion has become dominated by economic theory and classified Bordeaux, which is a drop in the wine universe. I've read that all of Bordeaux, classified and not, annually produces something less than 600 million bottles. World wide annual wine production is in excess of 33 BILLION bottles. Giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt, 33B/600M=1.8% of annual global wine sales... In my opinion, the focus of the discussion on the economics of the Bordeaux wine trade is overweighted.
Mark... As a better guess, roughly 75, million cases, 900 Million bottles are produced year with a value in excess of 3 Billion dollars. I do not think any other region equals those figures. Hope you are doing well.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#373 Post by brigcampbell »

The Gallo comment up thread was interesting. They could really see a great ROI with just a few bottles with decent scores at their volume.

AG/Vinous should change the pricing model from a fixed $24K to a revenue model. Make the $24K the minimum and in the case of Gallo at $6B/yr so charge $10 for every $1M in revenue. That's nothing to Gallo but would be $60K/yr to AG. If you're going to do this at least do it right and participate in the revenue sharing. You're welcome.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#374 Post by Chris Crutchfield »

Why stop there? Instead of charging cash for reviews, require clients to give an equity stake in their business. This saves producers and distributors from having to give up hard-earned capital and makes more transparent the aligned incentives with the reviewer. Sounds like a win-win to me.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#375 Post by M.Kaplan »

Jeff Leve wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:59 pm
M.Kaplan wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:47 pm The focus of this discussion has become dominated by economic theory and classified Bordeaux, which is a drop in the wine universe. I've read that all of Bordeaux, classified and not, annually produces something less than 600 million bottles. World wide annual wine production is in excess of 33 BILLION bottles. Giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt, 33B/600M=1.8% of annual global wine sales... In my opinion, the focus of the discussion on the economics of the Bordeaux wine trade is overweighted.
Mark... As a better guess, roughly 75, million cases, 900 Million bottles are produced year with a value in excess of 3 Billion dollars. I do not think any other region equals those figures. Hope you are doing well.
Hi Jeff, Hope you are well, too. It's been way too long.

My numbers came from Jancis Robinson. I wonder at the 50% disparity between Jancis' production numbers and yours:
JR Bordeaux Production.jpg
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#376 Post by Brent S »

Galloni must be completely shocked at how terribly this is going over. Probably shocked that everyone found out. Damage control mode.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#377 Post by jhans »

Chris Crutchfield wrote: April 29th, 2021, 3:30 pm Why stop there? Instead of charging cash for reviews, require clients to give an equity stake in their business. This saves producers and distributors from having to give up hard-earned capital and makes more transparent the aligned incentives with the reviewer. Sounds like a win-win to me.
[rofl.gif] [rofl.gif] [rofl.gif]
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#378 Post by Jeff Leve »

M.Kaplan wrote: April 29th, 2021, 3:34 pm
Jeff Leve wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:59 pm
M.Kaplan wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:47 pm The focus of this discussion has become dominated by economic theory and classified Bordeaux, which is a drop in the wine universe. I've read that all of Bordeaux, classified and not, annually produces something less than 600 million bottles. World wide annual wine production is in excess of 33 BILLION bottles. Giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt, 33B/600M=1.8% of annual global wine sales... In my opinion, the focus of the discussion on the economics of the Bordeaux wine trade is overweighted.
Mark... As a better guess, roughly 75, million cases, 900 Million bottles are produced year with a value in excess of 3 Billion dollars. I do not think any other region equals those figures. Hope you are doing well.
Hi Jeff, Hope you are well, too. It's been way too long.

My numbers came from Jancis Robinson. I wonder at the disparity 50% disparity between Jancis' production numbers and yours:

JR Bordeaux Production.jpg
I would listen to her before me. As I am probably out of date and production has been declining. 2013, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 are all small vintages. Though most of what I see says it is closer to 700 million cases. Regardless, out of all those bottles, most that is an ocean of plonk which does not really factor into this conversation.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#379 Post by R Scott Hughes »

Another thought/question: how does this play out when it is the opposite scenario? A prestigious wine getting a surprise low score......
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#380 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:18 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:47 am There's been a lot of focus on how this might affect pricing for the more premium wines, but not much more than a few mentions of lower-tiered wines.

Imagine a $18.99 Chianti gets a score of 94 or 95. That's going to sell like hotcakes. You know what else will sell like hotcakes? That same Chianti priced at $24.99. 6 bucks a bottle, at 12 bottles per case = $72/case. If the retailer has 20 cases to move (not an unreasonable quantity at all, and they could easily have more than that for a high-production wine) that's $72 * 20 = $1,440. 30 cases covers the $2k subscription cost for that month. And that's just one sku. ... then, watch the attempts to make that newly-increased pricing "stick" on subsequent vintages.
All of these situations are contingent on the retailer being able to purchase additional cases at an unadjusted price.

More than anything, I think distributors and importers are going to be a big portion of the subscribers. If that’s the case, the retailer is unlikely to be able to purchase additional cases at a more favourable cost, their distributor has also seen the scores early and knows what’s up and adjusts the price.

So net, in the long run there may not be a big benefit to the early preview for retailers if their distributors are also on the platform and adjusting prices accordingly. If so, there’d be little incentive for retailers to sign up then as they wouldn’t really gain that edge, but rather just add on an extra expense.

There hasn’t been much conversation around it, but one of the biggest perks I see of the new service is insight into the editorial calendar. I can see importers and distributors purchasing the subscription so that they have insight into what wines and regions are coming. That way they’re not releasing their wines prematurely prior to scores. Even without the early preview of scores, this would be extremely valuable to them as they can prepare inventory an be queued up to adjust prices.
Well, I was thinking about inventory retailers already have on hand. I agree it would likely be impossible to order more at the old price.

I also agree that insight into the editorial calendar is valuable. Another thought is this: if the retailer knows a couple days in advance that a wine is going to be getting a *disappointing* score (e.g.: barrel score of 96-99, and then an in-bottle score of 93), that might encourage retailers to do a "flash sale" of that wine in that 2 day period (all the end consumers will see is that 96-99 barrel score). Plenty of retailers do email blast flash sales like this, and many of them can move significant product in the span of hours.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#381 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

R Scott Hughes wrote: April 29th, 2021, 3:53 pm Another thought/question: how does this play out when it is the opposite scenario? A prestigious wine getting a surprise low score......
Ha! [wow.gif] I hadn't yet seen your post when I posted my response immediately prior to this one.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#382 Post by EricG »

Brent S wrote: April 29th, 2021, 3:35 pm Galloni must be completely shocked at how terribly this is going over. Probably shocked that everyone found out. Damage control mode.
Brent, his reaction seems to indicate so but I actually don’t see much damage control happening. More avoidance. Kinda sad to watch as I appreciate the vision he has for Vinous but the execution of this transition is definitely doing some brand damage. Let’s not count him out though - as evidenced by this thread, the value proposition to the trade is quite compelling!
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#383 Post by Rodrigo B »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 4:40 pm Another thought is this: if the retailer knows a couple days in advance that a wine is going to be getting a *disappointing* score (e.g.: barrel score of 96-99, and then an in-bottle score of 93), that might encourage retailers to do a "flash sale" of that wine in that 2 day period (all the end consumers will see is that 96-99 barrel score). Plenty of retailers do email blast flash sales like this, and many of them can move significant product in the span of hours.
That’s another interesting point. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’m curious to know if newly lowered scores move the needle in price downwards in any significant manner like high scores do. I’d imagine it wouldn’t be a perfect one to one correlation. i.e. if a 5pt increase from 90pt to 95pt made a wine jump from $40 to $60, I’m not sure if a newer 90pt score on a previously 95pt would make it be adjusted from $60 down back to $40, maybe it’d get adjusted to say $50. But I really have no idea as I haven't looked at any date on price corrections downwards due to lower scores
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#384 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:31 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 4:40 pm Another thought is this: if the retailer knows a couple days in advance that a wine is going to be getting a *disappointing* score (e.g.: barrel score of 96-99, and then an in-bottle score of 93), that might encourage retailers to do a "flash sale" of that wine in that 2 day period (all the end consumers will see is that 96-99 barrel score). Plenty of retailers do email blast flash sales like this, and many of them can move significant product in the span of hours.
That’s another interesting point. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’m curious to know if newly lowered scores move the needle in price downwards in any significant manner like high scores do. I’d imagine it wouldn’t be a perfect one to one correlation. i.e. if a 5pt increase from 90pt to 95pt made a wine jump from $40 to $60, I’m not sure if a newer 90pt score on a previously 95pt would make it be adjusted from $60 down back to $40, maybe it’d get adjusted to say $50. But I really have no idea as I haven't looked at any date on price corrections downwards due to lower scores
I wouldn't expect my example to result in a price reduction. Rather, I would expect it to simply make that wine move much slower --- *maaaaybe* slow enough to ultimately result in a price reduction, but I wouldn't count on it. But, I bet that flash sale moves major quantity if the store *is* willing to reduce the price maybe 5% (e.g.: "Hey, everybody!! Check out this deal! 96-99 barrel score, and for today, and today *only*, we are offering it to you at cheapest post-release price yet!")
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#385 Post by Rodrigo B »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:51 pm
Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:31 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 4:40 pm Another thought is this: if the retailer knows a couple days in advance that a wine is going to be getting a *disappointing* score (e.g.: barrel score of 96-99, and then an in-bottle score of 93), that might encourage retailers to do a "flash sale" of that wine in that 2 day period (all the end consumers will see is that 96-99 barrel score). Plenty of retailers do email blast flash sales like this, and many of them can move significant product in the span of hours.
That’s another interesting point. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’m curious to know if newly lowered scores move the needle in price downwards in any significant manner like high scores do. I’d imagine it wouldn’t be a perfect one to one correlation. i.e. if a 5pt increase from 90pt to 95pt made a wine jump from $40 to $60, I’m not sure if a newer 90pt score on a previously 95pt would make it be adjusted from $60 down back to $40, maybe it’d get adjusted to say $50. But I really have no idea as I haven't looked at any date on price corrections downwards due to lower scores
I wouldn't expect my example to result in a price reduction. Rather, I would expect it to simply make that wine move much slower --- *maaaaybe* slow enough to ultimately result in a price reduction, but I wouldn't count on it. But, I bet that flash sale moves major quantity if the store *is* willing to reduce the price maybe 5% (e.g.: "Hey, everybody!! Check out this deal! 96-99 barrel score, and for today, and today *only*, we are offering it to you at cheapest post-release price yet!")
That makes more intuitive sense to me.

One thing is clear, there’s a whole host of different scenarios for subscribers of this new service to utilise it to drive their top and bottom line more. I’m sure others can think up many other scenarios.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#386 Post by David_K »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:51 pm
Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:31 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 4:40 pm Another thought is this: if the retailer knows a couple days in advance that a wine is going to be getting a *disappointing* score (e.g.: barrel score of 96-99, and then an in-bottle score of 93), that might encourage retailers to do a "flash sale" of that wine in that 2 day period (all the end consumers will see is that 96-99 barrel score). Plenty of retailers do email blast flash sales like this, and many of them can move significant product in the span of hours.
That’s another interesting point. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’m curious to know if newly lowered scores move the needle in price downwards in any significant manner like high scores do. I’d imagine it wouldn’t be a perfect one to one correlation. i.e. if a 5pt increase from 90pt to 95pt made a wine jump from $40 to $60, I’m not sure if a newer 90pt score on a previously 95pt would make it be adjusted from $60 down back to $40, maybe it’d get adjusted to say $50. But I really have no idea as I haven't looked at any date on price corrections downwards due to lower scores
I wouldn't expect my example to result in a price reduction. Rather, I would expect it to simply make that wine move much slower --- *maaaaybe* slow enough to ultimately result in a price reduction, but I wouldn't count on it. But, I bet that flash sale moves major quantity if the store *is* willing to reduce the price maybe 5% (e.g.: "Hey, everybody!! Check out this deal! 96-99 barrel score, and for today, and today *only*, we are offering it to you at cheapest post-release price yet!")
I think you're really starting to over-engineer this.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#387 Post by Marc Hauser »

How is this thread *still* going?
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#388 Post by Brent S »

Marc Hauser wrote: April 29th, 2021, 7:26 pm How is this thread *still* going?
Because it’s borderline scandalous. Like insider trading for a fee in an unregulated business. That and most of us had an incredibly high opinion of Antonio and now feel dupped.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#389 Post by Steve Long »

M.Kaplan wrote: April 29th, 2021, 2:47 pm The focus of this discussion has become dominated by economic theory and classified Bordeaux, which is a drop in the wine universe. I've read that all of Bordeaux, classified and not, annually produces something less than 600 million bottles. World wide annual wine production is in excess of 33 BILLION bottles. Giving Bordeaux the benefit of the doubt, 33B/600M=1.8% of annual global wine sales... In my opinion, the focus of the discussion on the economics of the Bordeaux wine trade is overweighted.
Well the average bottle of wine sold in the US is $6.25, in France it’s €3.9. We are focused on the top of the spectrum here.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#390 Post by Steve Long »

Btw given the amount of interest here I will say that there is clearly something that feels dirty about this.

I still think it’s over blown... high scores one year result in higher prices later... high scores just result in higher prices immediately, maybe you can get some bottles before it ticks up. Producers hold inventory for selling later, so no single trader can capture it all.

Based on the interest though VM should clearly be raising prices.

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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#391 Post by brigcampbell »

Marc Hauser wrote: April 29th, 2021, 7:26 pm How is this thread *still* going?
We're only on the 8th page, it'll go twice that easy.

Things yet to happen that will drive a flurry of additional posts:

1. AG posts here
2. AG never posts here
3. Vinous confirms preview is the new direction
4. Vinous announces a "mea culpa" and direction change
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#392 Post by Sean S y d n e y »

That Instagram post is one of the more tone-deaf things I have seen in quite some time.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#393 Post by Marc Hauser »

brigcampbell wrote: April 29th, 2021, 8:08 pm
Marc Hauser wrote: April 29th, 2021, 7:26 pm How is this thread *still* going?
We're only on the 8th page, it'll go twice that easy.

Things yet to happen that will drive a flurry of additional posts:

1. AG posts here
2. AG never posts here
3. Vinous confirms preview is the new direction
4. Vinous announces a "mea culpa" and direction change
Ha!
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#394 Post by Marc Hauser »

Brent S wrote: April 29th, 2021, 7:42 pm
Marc Hauser wrote: April 29th, 2021, 7:26 pm How is this thread *still* going?
Because it’s borderline scandalous. Like insider trading for a fee in an unregulated business. That and most of us had an incredibly high opinion of Antonio and now feel dupped.
I honestly guess I just don’t see it as that scandalous. Disappointing, I’ll give you. I mean, it’s no Maison Ilan....
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#395 Post by Brent S »

Scandalous in the sense that it was secretly/quietly offered to select groups and leaked back to us about what was going on. If it was announced on their website, it wouldn’t be.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#396 Post by John Danza »

Well, at the risk of piling on....

AG's word salad response was a waste of time. He should have just said "Yep, we're giving the distributors and major retailers a 48 hour head start to adjust pricing and inventory before the consumer finds out how we rated wines".

Anyone who doubts this clearly hasn't paid attention to what has happened for decades whenever the Wine Spectator Top 100 comes out. Try to locate any of those wines at anywhere near the release prices noted in the magazine.

What I find interesting in the 8 pages of this thread is that no one has mentioned that AG is the face, but not necessarily the guy controlling the purse strings or investor $$$ at Vinous. Notice that the email didn't come out under AG's name, but instead came out under James Forsyth's name. Let me just leave it at that.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#397 Post by Pat Martin »

R Scott Hughes wrote: April 29th, 2021, 3:53 pm Another thought/question: how does this play out when it is the opposite scenario? A prestigious wine getting a surprise low score......
By Antonio’s own admission, that doesn’t happen anymore.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#398 Post by Daniel H »

Honest question: does a Vinous rating really justify changing the price of a wine? Sure, Parker could move prices, because he had a very loud megaphone and little or no competition. But the opposite is true these days - we have countless sources of reviews and ratings, both free and subscription. I used to follow Antonio religiously - his free Piedmont Report opened my eyes to great Italian wine. But after years of developing my own palate I’ve learned that his tastes and mine don’t always agree, and how he or anyone else chooses to rate a wine doesn’t matter all that much to me. I don’t buy - or at least I don’t buy in quantity - until I’ve tasted it myself.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#399 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

David_K wrote: April 29th, 2021, 6:40 pm
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:51 pm
Rodrigo B wrote: April 29th, 2021, 5:31 pm

That’s another interesting point. I haven’t seen data on this, but I’m curious to know if newly lowered scores move the needle in price downwards in any significant manner like high scores do. I’d imagine it wouldn’t be a perfect one to one correlation. i.e. if a 5pt increase from 90pt to 95pt made a wine jump from $40 to $60, I’m not sure if a newer 90pt score on a previously 95pt would make it be adjusted from $60 down back to $40, maybe it’d get adjusted to say $50. But I really have no idea as I haven't looked at any date on price corrections downwards due to lower scores
I wouldn't expect my example to result in a price reduction. Rather, I would expect it to simply make that wine move much slower --- *maaaaybe* slow enough to ultimately result in a price reduction, but I wouldn't count on it. But, I bet that flash sale moves major quantity if the store *is* willing to reduce the price maybe 5% (e.g.: "Hey, everybody!! Check out this deal! 96-99 barrel score, and for today, and today *only*, we are offering it to you at cheapest post-release price yet!")
I think you're really starting to over-engineer this.
You disagree with me on that, and that's totally o.k.. But those $2k/mo subscriptions aren't going to pay for themselves. The retailer paying for said subscription is going to want to make it "worth it" --- this is one of the ways they can work towards accomplishing that goal.
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Re: Antonio Galloni launches preview scoring.

#400 Post by Richard Albert »

Eleven years ago, the trade cut into the decades old tradition of consumers enjoying futures speculation=profits which was very consistent for a very long time until 2005 futures pricing came out late. Haut Brion blinked first as I recall when the First Growths jumped their prices radically, less than a year after Parker predicted $10 K First Growth cases. The whole industry claimed portions of what used to be consumer profiting. Understandable envy.

This is a more modern and more sophisticated market manipulation by insiders.
This should come as no surprise, really. Pay to play.
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