2020 Bordeaux

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David Glasser
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#51 Post by David Glasser »

Andy Sc wrote: April 19th, 2021, 6:46 am
HenryB wrote: April 18th, 2021, 10:58 pm
Andy Sc wrote: April 18th, 2021, 9:45 pm The first scores for the first growths are in - from JM Quarin, the french Bdx wine critic:

Lafite 98
Mouton 97
HB, Latour, Margaux 96

Quite good scores but not quite on the level of 16, 18 or 19.
If those scores are consistent with other critics if anything that will place some serious downward pressure. 96 on margaux and haut brion? Ouch!
A quick look at his other scores shows that 2020 will be better than 2017 but not on a level of the other vintages. But of course it's very early and just one critic. Let's wait and see...
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#52 Post by Paul @bbott »

HenryB wrote: April 21st, 2021, 11:12 am the problem I have is that I love buying wine but I bloody hate paying 20% VAT on it...
Generally cheaper in France and you can still bring back a case each, but since Brexit you have to go further up the food chain for it to be worthwhile.

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#53 Post by Paul @bbott »

Okay, some information is starting to flow now from the critics. Jancis has been uploading for a couple of days now. I get the impression that quality isn’t as high as in 2019, so substantial price increases could be hard to justify. Has anyone seen any information from other sources?

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#54 Post by Andy Sc »

Yes Jancis and Quarin have published a lot of information (so has Suckling but every vintage looks the same score-wise). Both critics have lower ratings so far compared to 2018 and 2019 (and 2016 of course).
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#55 Post by HenryB »

that seems broadly consistent with what I've seen elsewhere too. BBR's email earlier this week suggested pricing would increase, but GBP:EUR would probably mitigate the impact of it, so they (admittedly without any inside info) are braced for prices that are roughly in-line with 2019. I'd be surprised if that is true, personally, I expect it to be a bit of an increase on 2019 even in sterling, but we'll see!

I will probably look to pick up some standard drinking wines, and my allocations, but nothing more.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#56 Post by Mark Golodetz »

HenryB wrote: April 21st, 2021, 11:12 am the problem I have is that I love buying wine but I bloody hate paying 20% VAT on it...
It is amazing how the end price is about the same in the UK and US.

You have VAT, where at least some of the money does some good, we have the bloody three tier system, an oligopoly that exists thanks to Prohibition.The money goes into the pockets of the middlemen, who keep the current system going thanks to large donations to the politicians.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#57 Post by Mark Golodetz »

HenryB wrote: April 20th, 2021, 5:32 am
Mark Golodetz wrote: April 20th, 2021, 5:26 am
My experience of Bordeaux is that it is tough for them to sell two great back to back vintages even if the surrounding years are mediocre. The market is much larger than it used to be, but there is no way that they will able to sell the five out of six great vintages since 2015. And frankly I would even add 2014, which despite less love from the critics, I think will prove to be rather fine. Their marketing is better than it used to be, the demand is greater, but it is not at least double which it would need to be to absorb all that inventory.
while I agree with what you just said, with the negociant system, does it matter "as much"?
Low interest rates are allowing the negotiants to hold inventory. Even so, they can survive in the short term but not the long one. Gone are the days when negotiants really dictated to the chateaux; the pendulum has clearly shifted in favor of the (major) chateaux.

2020 does not sound like a vintage that will be as good as 2019, but if the pricing is close, they will sell some. If negotiants are forced to buy at higher prices, there will few sales. They will then they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Accept the higher prices and the wines and hold ridiculous amounts of inventory, or refuse and lose the allocation.

A few factors will dictate the market. Low yields of 2021 may help but rising interest rates as economies cope with free spending from the cost of Covid, the Chinese buying less and large amounts of inventory still unsold are likely to cause some serious problems.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#58 Post by YLee »

No idea why I'm receiving emails from Jamessuckling.com but for the 2020 bdx this " It appears to be an excellent year for merlot in particular"
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#59 Post by Glen Gold »

I've subscribed to liv-ex.com's free updates. Nothing revelatory so far except Suckling is pushing Croix de Labrie hard this year.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#60 Post by Demian Saenz »

Total Wine has the 2020 Bordeaux futures site ready to go. No wines listed.

Still has the tariff callout : * The price reflected on your order form is subject to change after the order is placed if tariffs or taxes are imposed, or in the case of currency fluctuations of 10% or greater at the time of importation into the U.S. If any changes impact your order, you will be notified and given the option of a full refund for goods not received.

https://concierge.totalwine.com/bordeaux-futures

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#61 Post by JulianD »

Demian Saenz wrote: April 29th, 2021, 9:19 am Total Wine has the 2020 Bordeaux futures site ready to go. No wines listed.

Still has the tariff callout : * The price reflected on your order form is subject to change after the order is placed if tariffs or taxes are imposed, or in the case of currency fluctuations of 10% or greater at the time of importation into the U.S. If any changes impact your order, you will be notified and given the option of a full refund for goods not received.

https://concierge.totalwine.com/bordeaux-futures
Yeah, they had that last year as well
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#62 Post by Aleks V »

Chateau Palmer has posted their 2020 vintage on Instagram. I am getting pumped for EP!
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#63 Post by Andy Sc »

Here a few observations based on the few sources I checked so far (Jancis Robinson, James Suckling, JM Quarin and the Austrian wine magazine Falstaff):

a) It seems to be a right bank & Pessac year
b) overall quality is lower than in 16/18/19 (Jancis, Quarin are lower with less superstars; Suckling is always high) but still on a very good level above 2017
c) same elevated alcohol levels on the right bank as in 16/18/19
d) Pessac still has high alcohol levels with HB reaching crazy 15!
e) slightly lower alcohol levels in the rest of the left bank compared to 18/19, for some it's even below 16 (but not all) - Lafite 12.8, Mouton 13.1
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#64 Post by HenryB »

If its in line with 17, there'll be basically no pressure to buy EP. 17 went down for the most part moving from EP to in bottle - I was burned on my small amount fo 17 purchases.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#65 Post by Mark Golodetz »

Andy Sc wrote: April 29th, 2021, 10:01 am Here a few observations based on the few sources I checked so far (Jancis Robinson, James Suckling, JM Quarin and the Austrian wine magazine Falstaff):

a) It seems to be a right bank & Pessac year
b) overall quality is lower than in 16/18/19 (Jancis, Quarin are lower with less superstars; Suckling is always high) but still on a very good level above 2017
c) same elevated alcohol levels on the right bank as in 16/18/19
d) Pessac still has high alcohol levels with HB reaching crazy 15!
e) slightly lower alcohol levels in the rest of the left bank compared to 18/19, for some it's even below 16 (but not all) - Lafite 12.8, Mouton 13.1
Haut Brion alcohol levels have been relatively high for some time. I have not bought any since 2008, as starting in 2009 if they hadn’t gone to the dark side, they were playing in the shadows.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#66 Post by KeithM »

Here is some additional commentary from Panos which is also consistent with a right bank/Merlot year. There is also speculation about a small price increase over 2019.

https://cluboenologique.com/story/borde ... m-critics/
Last edited by KeithM on April 29th, 2021, 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#67 Post by Andy Sc »

Mark Golodetz wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:38 am Haut Brion alcohol levels have been relatively high for some time. I have not bought any since 2008, as starting in 2009 if they hadn’t gone to the dark side, they were playing in the shadows.
I have bought heavily on the 2016 but that had “just” 13.9%. 14.6% in 2018 & 2019. Which is definitely to high. But that “going to the dark side” is also reflected in the scores and on Cellartracker: beside the 2016, HB seems to have become the weakest first growth in recent years, with Mouton coming out of its relative mediocrity it had between the 87 and 08 vintages (for a first).
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#68 Post by Andy Sc »

HenryB wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:20 am If its in line with 17, there'll be basically no pressure to buy EP. 17 went down for the most part moving from EP to in bottle - I was burned on my small amount fo 17 purchases.
Agree. My guess is that we will be a rad above 2017 but that would be likely not enough to constitute a must buy with prices increasing over 2019.

But it’s early in the campaign... let’s wait and see
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#69 Post by HenryB »

Andy Sc wrote: April 29th, 2021, 12:02 pm
HenryB wrote: April 29th, 2021, 11:20 am If its in line with 17, there'll be basically no pressure to buy EP. 17 went down for the most part moving from EP to in bottle - I was burned on my small amount fo 17 purchases.
Agree. My guess is that we will be a rad above 2017 but that would be likely not enough to constitute a must buy with prices increasing over 2019.
Yep.

Time to find out next week - apparently the madness starts next week.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#70 Post by John Telford »

Glen Gold wrote: April 28th, 2021, 7:42 am I've subscribed to liv-ex.com's free updates. Nothing revelatory so far except Suckling is pushing Croix de Labrie hard this year.
A good wine but OMG how they have gotten the "boys" to market them!

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#71 Post by YLee »

The scores so far looks very good for Ch. Margaux.
Looks like another QPR vintage for DdC
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#72 Post by Andy Sc »

YLee wrote: April 29th, 2021, 8:23 pm The scores so far looks very good for Ch. Margaux.
Looks like another QPR vintage for DdC
I would advise you to forget Suckling's scores. Just because he says it's a 99-100 wine doesn't mean it really has that kind of potential (just to say, he scored the 2017 99 points when it's really nowhere near perfection).
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#73 Post by HenryB »

Andy Sc wrote: April 29th, 2021, 10:51 pm
YLee wrote: April 29th, 2021, 8:23 pm The scores so far looks very good for Ch. Margaux.
Looks like another QPR vintage for DdC
I would advise you to forget Suckling's scores. Just because he says it's a 99-100 wine doesn't mean it really has that kind of potential (just to say, he scored the 2017 99 points when it's really nowhere near perfection).
agreed, if you're basing off Suckling scores, my go-to joke is that I dont buy anythng that he gives less than a 96 to.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#74 Post by YLee »

Tour St Christophe is out at Zachys for $32.99 75cl, $74.99 150cl, $159.99 for 300cl
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#75 Post by AD Northup »

Received the same, low price last year I received on those was 25.99...not a great start
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#76 Post by HenryB »

FWIW $31.99 is roughly the in-bond price it is being offered ex-London atm.

Your price last year must have been discounted - it was £276/12 ex-london last year which is basically the same price.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#77 Post by crickey »

The pound is up considerably against the dollar from last year. Today it is 1.388/1; last year it was 1.244/1. That same 276/12 at last year's rate would be $28.61. Same with the Euro, which is up 10% since last year against the dollar (watch out Total Wine futures buyers). Bordeaux wines for US buyers will be more expensive this year for that reason alone.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#78 Post by AD Northup »

Tour St. Christophe at 28.98 today
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#79 Post by Jmigliano »

Is there an EP release structure when we know when certain wines are released?
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#80 Post by AD Northup »

Jmigliano wrote: May 5th, 2021, 8:27 am Is there an EP release structure when we know when certain wines are released?
I’m not aware of a set structure, but I imagine prior years would provide a possible structure
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#81 Post by HenryB »

There's no fixed structure. 2018 was Larcis Ducasse & Palmer among the first IIRC, 2016 was Cos D'estournel, cant remember 17, 19 was obviously Pontet Canet.

It's always a bit of a blinking game. There's a risk that if you release early and dont sell out, other chateau might undercut you a bit, there's also a risk that if you release early and sell out completely, everyone else raises their prices a bit to manage demand. If you release late, capital might be depleted and despite a great wine at a good price, not sell out....

Tough game!
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#82 Post by Aleks V »

Is anything released besides Tour St. Christophe?
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#83 Post by HenryB »

Enclos, Tour St Christophe, and a couple other wines. Nothing major yet.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#84 Post by Mark Morrissette »

I have put in an order for Tour St Christophe, as it seems to be a perennial value play. (But, it is not like it usually sells out all that quickly either.)

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#85 Post by HenryB »

Agree with your assessment. Seems like great value for money, but no pressure on it selling out anytime soon. Back vintages might look attractive at that price, but it is a right bank year allegedly.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#86 Post by Curtis Chen »

Is HenryB to 2020 Bordeaux what MatthewT is to de Negoce? neener

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#87 Post by HenryB »

I dont really know what the reference is, but Bordeaux/EP is basically my main play in wine. That being said, I dont havae the breadth of knowledge or expertise to make really informed decisions, so assume anything I write is probably wrong.

I dont know jack about new world, Burgundy, most italians, spanish or germany. I'm a Rhone/Bordeaux guy really, so Bdx EP is my big thing for the most part. By value, bordeauxs bought en primeur is probably >70% of cellar value.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#88 Post by Aleks V »

Curtis Chen wrote: May 5th, 2021, 11:50 am Is HenryB to 2020 Bordeaux what MatthewT is to de Negoce? neener
Haha,

Henry, for your context MatthewT is a de Negoce superfan and probably 20% of the posts on the de Negoce thread were from him in the first couple of months that the thread was running. There was a time when he was very aggressively defending them, so much so that some folks thought he might actually be Cameron Hughes.

Note that I’m just providing context and not making any judgments...
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#89 Post by HenryB »

thanks for the info

I guess, in some ways, yes, except I have no commercial interest in Bdx, its just personal buying.

I dont know anything about american wines, so 80% of the threads on here just go over my head, as much as I'd like to participate.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#90 Post by Mark Morrissette »

Well Henry, it sounds like you have a lot of experience, which is certainly valuable. I will look forward to hearing your thoughts.

I am quite sure I have far less experience, but like you I have heard it is a "right bank year." That said, for whatever reason many/most of the releases I am tracking seem to more left bank, based on some early solid reviews.

My current tracking list (in addition to the TSC noted above):
Clinet
Leoville Barton
Cos D'Estournel
Calon Segur
Montrose
VCC

Not saying I will buy all of those, and certainly not saying I won't add others....

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#91 Post by HenryB »

I'm definitely eyeing up buy a parcel of Clinet this year. Never been a Leoville buyer historically - and I'm stil 'fat' from 3 cases of 2016 Cos d'estournel. Typically I dont find too much room for short term growth in the Cos pricing, so its rarely one I pick up EP, but I've never really sat down and done the analysis. Lovely, lovely wine though. Love the 03.

VCC of course gets a lot of high praise - I'm tempted to buy some this year depending on the other allocations I get offered. VCC at least seems notionally up 10% in 2019, so it might be one worth pursuing - always on allocation too AFAIK.

My lined up EP purchases right now are:

Canon (staple)
Pontet Canet (potential - this is a personal staple but I bought 18 bottles 19 so not sure if I need to top up)
Clinet
Carmes Haut Brion
Lafleur
Le Pin (obviously pricey but I get first tranche pricing)
Malescot st Expurey


I bought quite a lot of left bank last year, given Pauillac's performance, so I think I'll be playing for lower volume right bank productions this year. Also trying to reduce my spend year-on-year, I damn near cleared out all my savings last year on those great EP prices.
Last edited by HenryB on May 5th, 2021, 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#92 Post by YLee »

Ones I am eyeing.
Pichon Lalande
Charmes Haut brion
Vieux chateau cartan
Montrose
Rauzan segla
Domaine de Chevalier
Ducru-beaucaillou
Figeac
Conseillante
Canon
Leoville las cases

I might buy more 2019 instead. Got too many wines already. Neeed to really chill.
Last edited by YLee on May 5th, 2021, 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#93 Post by HenryB »

Pichon seems very popular this year for sure. If its in line with 2019 at £666/6, that's a pretty good deal IMHO

I have to say, though, based on whats come out so fara, my recommendation to date has been mostly to look at backfilling, but obviously we've not really seen any proper action yet.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#94 Post by JulianD »

Where are you guys seeing releases? (UK or US)

edit - I see K&L has some
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#95 Post by HenryB »

I'm UK, so I'm tracking in line with the normal UK cycles. Mainly FRW to date, BI have done some releases too.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#96 Post by Curtis Chen »

HenryB wrote: May 5th, 2021, 1:50 pm I'm definitely eyeing up buy a parcel of Clinet this year. Never been a Leoville buyer historically - and I'm stil 'fat' from 3 cases of 2016 Cos d'estournel. Typically I dont find too much room for short term growth in the Cos pricing, so its rarely one I pick up EP, but I've never really sat down and done the analysis. Lovely, lovely wine though. Love the 03.

VCC of course gets a lot of high praise - I'm tempted to buy some this year depending on the other allocations I get offered. VCC at least seems notionally up 10% in 2019, so it might be one worth pursuing - always on allocation too AFAIK.

My lined up EP purchases right now are:

Canon (staple)
Pontet Canet (potential - this is a personal staple but I bought 18 bottles 19 so not sure if I need to top up)
Clinet
Carmes Haut Brion
Lafleur
Le Pin (obviously pricey but I get first tranche pricing)
Malescot st Expurey


I bought quite a lot of left bank last year, given Pauillac's performance, so I think I'll be playing for lower volume right bank productions this year. Also trying to reduce my spend year-on-year, I damn near cleared out all my savings last year on those great EP prices.
VCC is my only "must buy" if I participate in futures (2016 and 2019 were my only recent campaigns). Got Leoville Barton, Pichon Lalande/Baron, and Montrose in 2019 because they were cheap, but I don't always go for those. I think you got La Mission HB in 19? Could be a sweet investment.

Have you had Carmes Haut Brion? It's been polarizing. Recently bought/shared a btl of the 2015 and felt it was too international/glossy for the price. Might be worth trying before you buy a case.

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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#97 Post by HenryB »

Yep, I got LMHB and HB in 2019. Decent haul, already up a bit and clearly room for growth vs historics, even ignoring the impressive scores. Probably going to pass up most of my left bank this year though - TBH I cant afford to take a large parcel of 1st/2nd growths without compromising my other financial goals for the year :D (one carefully worked out spreadsheet later...)

No, I've never had the Carmes Haut Brion tbh. And I dont need to - it's very popular in the UK. Allocation only purchase. Notionally the CHB I bought EP last year is up about 50%.


My EP purchasing is more around 'What's likely to sell out/increase in price', rather than necessarily what do I like drinking. If it was just what I like drinking, I'd only ever stock up on Chevalier, Larcis Ducasse, Pontet Canet and maybe a couple other mid level Pauillacs - but much of that stuff will be available at EP price for years to come (based on track record) so I dont feel too much pressure to buy now, TBH. As you identify, from a drinking perspective EP doesnt necessarily always make a lot of sense to participate in. I did a tiny amount in 17, a bit more in 18, BIG on 19, and will be medium (circa 2018 level) on 20. The last few years have been heavily allocation driven - 18 for the most part outside of the top tier wines hasn't really moved in pricing so wouldnt have been good use of money. The allocations almost always make sense, of course.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#98 Post by YLee »

Slight thread drift but my favorites at UGC for '16 were pll and chb.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#99 Post by Mark Golodetz »

I told friend from whom I buy almost all my futures that I was only going to buy VCC this year. My cellar is saturated, there is way too much young wine available. Five out of the last six vintages have been worth buying selectively, so why would I need to buy futures? I am done.

Primeur is generally a mug’s game; in the last twenty years only 2008 and 2019 have made any sense financially, unless you buy odd sizes (I buy magnums and half bottles). 2020 is still going to generate some excitement; a good to great vintage always does. But I will happily bet that you will be able to buy the same wines ten years from now within 10% of the futures price.
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Re: 2020 Bordeaux

#100 Post by Curtis Chen »

Mark Golodetz wrote: May 5th, 2021, 4:00 pm I told friend from whom I buy almost all my futures that I was only going to buy VCC this year. My cellar is saturated, there is way too much young wine available. Five out of the last six vintages have been worth buying selectively, so why would I need to buy futures? I am done.

Primeur is generally a mug’s game; in the last twenty years only 2008 and 2019 have made any sense financially, unless you buy odd sizes (I buy magnums and half bottles). 2020 is still going to generate some excitement; a good to great vintage always does. But I will happily bet that you will be able to buy the same wines ten years from now within 10% of the futures price.
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