For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

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Brian G r a f s t r o m
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#301 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

RMann wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:35 pm ...
As now announced: only items that receive a bid in the final 3 minutes (6:57pm-7pm PST) will go into Overtime Bidding. All other items will retire at 7pm. (So instead of T-10, it’s only T-3).

New info for everyone:
* There are two phases of Overtime Bidding, Initial and Extended Overtime.
* Initial Overtime begins at 7:00pm PT -- a 3-minute bidding window for only overtime lots. If there are no new bids after three minutes of Initial Overtime, bidding closes at 7:03pm PT. Only people who have already bid on or are tracking a lot will be able to see or participate on that lot Overtime.
* For any lots that receive additional bids in “Initial Overtime,” there will be Extended Overtime. Extended Overtime begins at 7:03pm PT -- which consists of 30-second increments that restart every time a new bid is placed. This period ends when no new bid is received after 30 seconds or at 7:10pm PT, whichever is sooner....
If I'm reading this correctly, this means it is *impossible to win a lot with a bid placed in "Initial Overtime."

*except if that bid placed in "Initial Overtime" is the **only** bid placed in Initial Overtime *and* nobody places another (losing or winning?) bid in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" (and if a losing bid is placed in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" bidders, for the next 5:00, every 0:30, can continue placing losing bids that will extend the auction another 30 seconds, until 10:00 of "Overtime" has elapsed, at which time the lot has a hard close). Therefore, it is entirely possible that a Day 1 Max Bid wins the auction, but only after enduring 10:00 of arguably inappropriate losing sniping attempts. Seems to me this is potentially an argument *against* placing that Max Bid early.

I can't say I've ever heard of an auction where only the top bid wins but losing bids are allowed to extend the bidding, but that's exactly what can happen here with this new format.

Apparently it's not a "winning" bid in "Initial Overtime" that triggers "Extended Overtime," but rather just *any* additional bid. So, per Jayson's point, above, someone could submit a Max Bid on Day 1 that is still the winning bid at 2:59 prior to close, someone could place a losing bid in that last three minutes, triggering "Initial Overtime," someone could then place another losing bid in "Initial Overtime" (still losing to that Day 1 Max Bidder), thereby guaranteeing the auction is going to go at least 3:30 past the originally-scheduled close time. Viewed from this perspective, it could be argued this format actually *caters* to snipers. LOL! This is so damn weird and complicated ... I just can't. [rofl.gif]


That strikes me as weird, and feels like somebody got so deep in the weeds conceiving this format they got lost and couldn't find their way out. The more I look at this the more convoluted it gets. Can't decide if its crazy-genius, or just plain ol' crazy. cheesehead
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#302 Post by Victor Hong »

Alan Rath wrote: March 8th, 2021, 9:26 pm It’s really unbelievable the amount of angst, even anger this has stirred up. The very epitome of a first world problem - “someone might be willing to pay a few bucks more for a bottle of wine whose price would feed a family for a week in a lot of places around the world”. Or rent for a month here in some cases. Sheesh.
Not in every Third World place. Noo Yawk is one example.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#303 Post by mike pobega »

One could always shut their internet services and join the Peace Corps.

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#304 Post by Victor Hong »

mike pobega wrote: March 9th, 2021, 4:06 am One could always shut their internet services and join the Peace Corps.
And submit auction bids in the old-fashioned way, via US mail. No last-minute deliveries!
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#305 Post by Rodrigo B »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 8th, 2021, 11:49 pm
RMann wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:35 pm ...
As now announced: only items that receive a bid in the final 3 minutes (6:57pm-7pm PST) will go into Overtime Bidding. All other items will retire at 7pm. (So instead of T-10, it’s only T-3).

New info for everyone:
* There are two phases of Overtime Bidding, Initial and Extended Overtime.
* Initial Overtime begins at 7:00pm PT -- a 3-minute bidding window for only overtime lots. If there are no new bids after three minutes of Initial Overtime, bidding closes at 7:03pm PT. Only people who have already bid on or are tracking a lot will be able to see or participate on that lot Overtime.
* For any lots that receive additional bids in “Initial Overtime,” there will be Extended Overtime. Extended Overtime begins at 7:03pm PT -- which consists of 30-second increments that restart every time a new bid is placed. This period ends when no new bid is received after 30 seconds or at 7:10pm PT, whichever is sooner....
If I'm reading this correctly, this means it is *impossible to win a lot with a bid placed in "Initial Overtime."

*except if that bid placed in "Initial Overtime" is the **only** bid placed in Initial Overtime *and* nobody places another (losing or winning?) bid in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" (and if a losing bid is placed in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" bidders, for the next 5:00, every 0:30, can continue placing losing bids that will extend the auction another 30 seconds, until 10:00 of "Overtime" has elapsed, at which time the lot has a hard close). Therefore, it is entirely possible that a Day 1 Max Bid wins the auction, but only after enduring 10:00 of arguably inappropriate losing sniping attempts. Seems to me this is potentially an argument *against* placing that Max Bid early.

I can't say I've ever heard of an auction where only the top bid wins but losing bids are allowed to extend the bidding, but that's exactly what can happen here with this new format.

Apparently it's not a "winning" bid in "Initial Overtime" that triggers "Extended Overtime," but rather just *any* additional bid. So, per Jayson's point, above, someone could submit a Max Bid on Day 1 that is still the winning bid at 2:59 prior to close, someone could place a losing bid in that last three minutes, triggering "Initial Overtime," someone could then place another losing bid in "Initial Overtime" (still losing to that Day 1 Max Bidder), thereby guaranteeing the auction is going to go at least 3:30 past the originally-scheduled close time. Viewed from this perspective, it could be argued this format actually *caters* to snipers. LOL! This is so damn weird and complicated ... I just can't. [rofl.gif]


That strikes me as weird, and feels like somebody got so deep in the weeds conceiving this format they got lost and couldn't find their way out. The more I look at this the more convoluted it gets. Can't decide if its crazy-genius, or just plain ol' crazy. cheesehead
I think that’s reasonable, for the same reasons that we’ve been discussing here. OT is all about making sure WineBid is not leaving money on the table on lots. If someone bids lower than your max bid and triggers OT, that just mean they have time to bid up either higher than your max bid or bow out, in which case you’ll still win the lot, just a bit later. If they bid higher than your max bid, the auction OT is equally open to you to bid again higher to win the lot.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#306 Post by MBerto »

Rich Brown wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:42 pm
4. You nailed it. We're going to end up paying more for wines now. And since this is a wine board, and it was presented as something that buyers 'asked for'.....we're discussing/complaining (I'm complaining at least). You don't have to feel bad for us....but it doesn't mean we shouldn't talk about it here. If you want to read the whole thread....there's been, IMHO, some great points made on both sides (again....except for Victor's).

Cheers!
I read most of the thread, there's already 50 threads here about auction sites and the vast majority of the discussion is the same. There has been some interesting auction theory discussions on this one, though.

Seems based on your posts on the thread I linked, you have a strategy of frequently following along at the ends of auctions, and placing late bids. Nothing wrong with that, everyone is free to enjoy their own strategy. It seems a person in your position may either A) pay a bit more, which I can certainly understand you may not love or B) win less wine, so maybe you'll end up paying less overall? I have a feeling a couple bucks per bottle is not the real issue, but rather the ability to score wines at a perceived discount (although would further argue I don't think there are many screaming deals on WB, only wines which can be somewhat difficult to acquire via other channels).
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#307 Post by MBerto »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 8th, 2021, 11:38 pm
Jayson Cohen wrote: March 8th, 2021, 5:11 pm As predicted, the Max Bid winning bidder at 9:57- (non-sniper) is screwed by a non-winning bid (lower than Max Bid) in the last three minutes as in my example above. That non-winning bid triggers the Initial Overtime even if that Max Bid is still ahead at 10. That does not seem fair. (I’ve put in early bids many times with a Max Bid that someone unsuccessfully tried to swipe at the last second under current rules.)
Agreed. It strikes me as extremely weird that a **losing** bid in the final three minutes would be allowed to trigger the Overtime Period.
What is a "losing bid"? How can I make one? If the wine is at $75, I can't bid $70. I can bid $76, and if someone else has a max bid of $80, then I suppose that new bid "loses", but the $76, and subsequent $77 auto-bid, aren't "losing bids". However, now the $76 bidder now has the option to continue bidding. In that sense it gives additional flexibility TO THE SNIPER, even though that crowd seems the most vehemently opposed.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#308 Post by Alan Rath »

Cris Whetstone wrote: March 8th, 2021, 10:23 pm
Alan Rath wrote: March 8th, 2021, 9:26 pm It’s really unbelievable the amount of angst, even anger this has stirred up. The very epitome of a first world problem - “someone might be willing to pay a few bucks more for a bottle of wine whose price would feed a family for a week in a lot of places around the world”. Or rent for a month here in some cases. Sheesh.
While this issue is being blow a little bit out of proportion, it's never a good look for people here to accuse others of making too much of the hobby by using guilt. We are all guilty of taking expensive wine here seriously. None of us should pretend we are above that.
Being guilty of taking expensive wine seriously, and paying stupid prices for bottles of fermented grape juice is a given, we are definitely all “guilty” of that. It’s the reason we’re here, after all. That’s very different from being outraged (and there has been real outrage expressed in this thread) that the auction rules might change so someone competes fairly against you to push up the price of a $100 bottle another few bucks. This from guys who post about buying and drinking expensive wine, cars, audio equipment, travel, on and on.

I’ve enjoyed the feedback on the change, and the discussion on game theory, bidding strategies, etc., but the outrage is not a good look.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#309 Post by Victor Hong »

Alan Rath wrote: March 9th, 2021, 9:48 am
Cris Whetstone wrote: March 8th, 2021, 10:23 pm
Alan Rath wrote: March 8th, 2021, 9:26 pm It’s really unbelievable the amount of angst, even anger this has stirred up. The very epitome of a first world problem - “someone might be willing to pay a few bucks more for a bottle of wine whose price would feed a family for a week in a lot of places around the world”. Or rent for a month here in some cases. Sheesh.
While this issue is being blow a little bit out of proportion, it's never a good look for people here to accuse others of making too much of the hobby by using guilt. We are all guilty of taking expensive wine here seriously. None of us should pretend we are above that.
Being guilty of taking expensive wine seriously, and paying stupid prices for bottles of fermented grape juice is a given, we are definitely all “guilty” of that. It’s the reason we’re here, after all. That’s very different from being outraged (and there has been real outrage expressed in this thread) that the auction rules might change so someone competes fairly against you to push up the price of a $100 bottle another few bucks. This from guys who post about buying and drinking expensive wine, cars, audio equipment, travel, on and on.

I’ve enjoyed the feedback on the change, and the discussion on game theory, bidding strategies, etc., but the outrage is not a good look.
Having to spend perhaps another $10 to beat out somebody else for a $150 bottle of (already-underpriced) wine is a national disgrace.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#310 Post by Rich Brown »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 9:18 am
Rich Brown wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:42 pm
4. You nailed it. We're going to end up paying more for wines now. And since this is a wine board, and it was presented as something that buyers 'asked for'.....we're discussing/complaining (I'm complaining at least). You don't have to feel bad for us....but it doesn't mean we shouldn't talk about it here. If you want to read the whole thread....there's been, IMHO, some great points made on both sides (again....except for Victor's).

Cheers!
I read most of the thread, there's already 50 threads here about auction sites and the vast majority of the discussion is the same. There has been some interesting auction theory discussions on this one, though.

Seems based on your posts on the thread I linked, you have a strategy of frequently following along at the ends of auctions, and placing late bids. Nothing wrong with that, everyone is free to enjoy their own strategy. It seems a person in your position may either A) pay a bit more, which I can certainly understand you may not love or B) win less wine, so maybe you'll end up paying less overall? I have a feeling a couple bucks per bottle is not the real issue, but rather the ability to score wines at a perceived discount (although would further argue I don't think there are many screaming deals on WB, only wines which can be somewhat difficult to acquire via other channels).
Yep, I think that sounds about right. As I mentioned, I'm definitley not swearing off Winebid by any means, but am concerned about the potential of having to spend more per bottle.....which, even at just a few bucks per wine, adds up fairly quickly when you participate almost weekly.

I certainly don't love it but am trying to keep an open mind. I think I have my initial revised strategy lined up and will see how it plays out in real time [cheers.gif]

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#311 Post by MBerto »

Well post your WB handle, and I can at least curse your name when I lose! I'm 10centpower but unless you like possibly spoiled riojas and Oregon pinots old enough to drink themselves you probably won't bid against me.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#312 Post by Rich Brown »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:19 am Well post your WB handle, and I can at least curse your name when I lose! I'm 10centpower but unless you like possibly spoiled riojas and Oregon pinots old enough to drink themselves you probably won't bid against me.
Ha ha! Nah, I'm actually not a big pinot drinker and have a pretty limited Rioja collection, so i think you're safe ;)

Now if you focused on aged zin, and older CA wines from the 70's, it would be a different conversation, ha!

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#313 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

Rodrigo B wrote: March 9th, 2021, 5:03 am
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 8th, 2021, 11:49 pm
RMann wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:35 pm ...
As now announced: only items that receive a bid in the final 3 minutes (6:57pm-7pm PST) will go into Overtime Bidding. All other items will retire at 7pm. (So instead of T-10, it’s only T-3).

New info for everyone:
* There are two phases of Overtime Bidding, Initial and Extended Overtime.
* Initial Overtime begins at 7:00pm PT -- a 3-minute bidding window for only overtime lots. If there are no new bids after three minutes of Initial Overtime, bidding closes at 7:03pm PT. Only people who have already bid on or are tracking a lot will be able to see or participate on that lot Overtime.
* For any lots that receive additional bids in “Initial Overtime,” there will be Extended Overtime. Extended Overtime begins at 7:03pm PT -- which consists of 30-second increments that restart every time a new bid is placed. This period ends when no new bid is received after 30 seconds or at 7:10pm PT, whichever is sooner....
If I'm reading this correctly, this means it is *impossible to win a lot with a bid placed in "Initial Overtime."

*except if that bid placed in "Initial Overtime" is the **only** bid placed in Initial Overtime *and* nobody places another (losing or winning?) bid in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" (and if a losing bid is placed in the first 30 seconds of "Extended Overtime" bidders, for the next 5:00, every 0:30, can continue placing losing bids that will extend the auction another 30 seconds, until 10:00 of "Overtime" has elapsed, at which time the lot has a hard close). Therefore, it is entirely possible that a Day 1 Max Bid wins the auction, but only after enduring 10:00 of arguably inappropriate losing sniping attempts. Seems to me this is potentially an argument *against* placing that Max Bid early.

I can't say I've ever heard of an auction where only the top bid wins but losing bids are allowed to extend the bidding, but that's exactly what can happen here with this new format.

Apparently it's not a "winning" bid in "Initial Overtime" that triggers "Extended Overtime," but rather just *any* additional bid. So, per Jayson's point, above, someone could submit a Max Bid on Day 1 that is still the winning bid at 2:59 prior to close, someone could place a losing bid in that last three minutes, triggering "Initial Overtime," someone could then place another losing bid in "Initial Overtime" (still losing to that Day 1 Max Bidder), thereby guaranteeing the auction is going to go at least 3:30 past the originally-scheduled close time. Viewed from this perspective, it could be argued this format actually *caters* to snipers. LOL! This is so damn weird and complicated ... I just can't. [rofl.gif]


That strikes me as weird, and feels like somebody got so deep in the weeds conceiving this format they got lost and couldn't find their way out. The more I look at this the more convoluted it gets. Can't decide if its crazy-genius, or just plain ol' crazy. cheesehead
I think that’s reasonable, for the same reasons that we’ve been discussing here. OT is all about making sure WineBid is not leaving money on the table on lots. If someone bids lower than your max bid and triggers OT, that just mean they have time to bid up either higher than your max bid or bow out, in which case you’ll still win the lot, just a bit later. If they bid higher than your max bid, the auction OT is equally open to you to bid again higher to win the lot.
Oh, I know; it's just incredibly weird. Couple that with the fact that there's still a hard close -- eventually -- and I just find it funny because it seems way more complicated than it needs to be. Why WineBid doesn't simply "Go Live" at the end is
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#314 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 9:30 am
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 8th, 2021, 11:38 pm
Jayson Cohen wrote: March 8th, 2021, 5:11 pm As predicted, the Max Bid winning bidder at 9:57- (non-sniper) is screwed by a non-winning bid (lower than Max Bid) in the last three minutes as in my example above. That non-winning bid triggers the Initial Overtime even if that Max Bid is still ahead at 10. That does not seem fair. (I’ve put in early bids many times with a Max Bid that someone unsuccessfully tried to swipe at the last second under current rules.)
Agreed. It strikes me as extremely weird that a **losing** bid in the final three minutes would be allowed to trigger the Overtime Period.
What is a "losing bid"? How can I make one? If the wine is at $75, I can't bid $70. I can bid $76, and if someone else has a max bid of $80, then I suppose that new bid "loses", but the $76, and subsequent $77 auto-bid, aren't "losing bids".
You got it right. Your $76 *is* a losing bid because it loses to the $77 auto-bid, the time of which relates-back to the time when that person entered their $80 max bid. So, far all intents and purposes, you are allowed to keep the auction going with your $76 losing bid.
However, now the $76 bidder now has the option to continue bidding. In that sense it gives additional flexibility TO THE SNIPER, even though that crowd seems the most vehemently opposed.
And, again, you have it right. This is exactly why I said, above, this new format arguably *caters to* snipers.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#315 Post by Jayson Cohen »

Going live isn’t practical unless there’s only a couple lots in overtime.

It will interesting to see the new dynamics.

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#316 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

Jayson Cohen wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:49 am Going live isn’t practical unless there’s only a couple lots in overtime.

It will interesting to see the new dynamics.
I agree it would be very tough to be bidding on any more than 2 live lots with 30 second increments. If the increments were increased to a minute I reckon it would be difficult to participate in any more than 3 --- maybe 4 --- live lots.

Agreed it will be interesting to see how this plays-out. Fun thread.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#317 Post by Alan Rath »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:47 am And, again, you have it right. This is exactly why I said, above, this new format arguably *caters to* snipers.
This sounds correct, assuming we understand the way it will work. A sniper can now probe the possible max bid out there, and keep pushing the price up if he wants to. In my mind, that’s a good thing. Makes more money for the seller and WB, and the sniper is theoretically happy as well, otherwise he wouldn’t have placed the bid.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#318 Post by B. Buzzini »

When I see the title of this thread I can't help but think of this...
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#319 Post by Rodrigo B »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:44 am Oh, I know; it's just incredibly weird. Couple that with the fact that there's still a hard close -- eventually -- and I just find it funny because it seems way more complicated than it needs to be. Why WineBid doesn't simply "Go Live" at the end is
I’m guessing the decision is mainly to have a more definitive auction close for people. They could switch to live, but I’m guessing that min 14 bid iterations to take the auction to 7.10pm is going to be more than enough to price out all but one bidder.

For lots over $100 the bidding escalates pretty quickly at $10 a bid, so a $100 lot turns into at least a $240 lot if taken all the way 7.10pm. Unless the lot is massively underpriced, we’re going to see people bow out way before 7.10pm. For lots between $50-$80, they get at least 25% more expensive if taken all the way to 7.10pm, with the possibility of the lot crossing the $100 mark and triggering $10 bid increments, in which case, see above. For lots under $50 that means price gets at least 30% more expensive if taken to 7.10pm. And that’s just if people bid the minimum increment amount.

I’m guessing in most OT bidding, people are going to be priced out before 7.10pm even comes.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#320 Post by Brian G r a f s t r o m »

I'd be surprised if you're not right about that, Rodrigo.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#321 Post by Rodrigo B »

There’s certainly going to a whole lot of new bidding strategies, both pre 6.57 and for OT. It will be interesting to see the changes in bidding dynamics and strategies previous held and used.

I’m curious to see whether people will prioritise pre-6.57pm bidding or embrace some type of OT strategy. It’ll likely vary depending on their and their counterbidders' max bid.
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#322 Post by MBerto »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:47 am
However, now the $76 bidder now has the option to continue bidding. In that sense it gives additional flexibility TO THE SNIPER, even though that crowd seems the most vehemently opposed.
And, again, you have it right. This is exactly why I said, above, this new format arguably *caters to* snipers.
Yeah I reconsidered this a bit and do see the logic in NOT triggering Overtime IF the post-9:57 bids do not clear an existing Max Bid. However I am going out on the world's shortest limb to assume this is going be a serious minority of auctions. It'll be a small subset of those which to go overtime, itself already (supposedly) a small subset of all auctions.

Would be great if Russ would bless us with some stats on this. Over the last 3-6 months, what's the average % of weekly auctions which would have gone to overtime using the new rules? Average hammer price of those auctions?
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#323 Post by Rodrigo B »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 11:33 am
Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:47 am
However, now the $76 bidder now has the option to continue bidding. In that sense it gives additional flexibility TO THE SNIPER, even though that crowd seems the most vehemently opposed.
And, again, you have it right. This is exactly why I said, above, this new format arguably *caters to* snipers.
Yeah I reconsidered this a bit and do see the logic in NOT triggering Overtime IF the post-9:57 bids do not clear an existing Max Bid. However I am going out on the world's shortest limb to assume this is going be a serious minority of auctions. It'll be a small subset of those which to go overtime, itself already (supposedly) a small subset of all auctions.

Would be great if Russ would bless us with some stats on this. Over the last 3-6 months, what's the average % of weekly auctions which would have gone to overtime using the new rules? Average hammer price of those auctions?
Would be very interesting to see some of that data is Russ could share some. Equally important to understand how this will impact OT bidding is the average current bid on the lots before 6.57 to understand by how much are people usually bidding up on this last few minutes.
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#324 Post by ybarselah »

Jayson Cohen wrote: March 9th, 2021, 10:49 am Going live isn’t practical unless there’s only a couple lots in overtime.

It will interesting to see the new dynamics.
this is the UX part i keep coming back to. even if you're optimizing everything towards winebid, regardless of other factors, this makes it a more complicated environment to extract that extra value.

a way to kind of split the difference would be to end the auction with all lots that haven't had new bids in some short frame prior to 7PM. that's the "end of regulation" - then after a pause in the action, you go on to Overtime. Ideally, you'd now be dealing with a smaller (much smaller?) cohort and you can develop a UX that makes it easier to follow and bid accordingly on multiple lots. again, auctions to this live (revisiting passed lots at the end of a session) and/or sending a list of passed lots the next day.
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#325 Post by Rich Brown »

Rodrigo B wrote: March 9th, 2021, 11:23 am There’s certainly going to a whole lot of new bidding strategies, both pre 6.57 and for OT. It will be interesting to see the changes in bidding dynamics and strategies previous held and used.

I’m curious to see whether people will prioritise pre-6.57pm bidding or embrace some type of OT strategy. It’ll likely vary depending on their and their counterbidders' max bid.
I agree 100%, its going to be very interesting to see. I'm assuming the strategy I have in mind right now will need to be adjusted once we learn how most peeps will be bidding. My thoughts are that it will also vary significantly based on the price of the bottle (i.e. people will bid differently for more expensive bottles)

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#326 Post by MBerto »

Anyway if you want to see this work live, here's a car auction ending in about 40 minutes (as of this posting) - it's a rare right hand drive Toyota Supra imported from Japan, so this is going to see a lot of last minute action:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9A4Plj ... upra-turbo
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#327 Post by Rich Brown »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 12:11 pm Anyway if you want to see this work live, here's a car auction ending in about 40 minutes (as of this posting) - it's a rare right hand drive Toyota Supra imported from Japan, so this is going to see a lot of last minute action:

https://carsandbids.com/auctions/9A4Plj ... upra-turbo
You bidding?? ;)

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#328 Post by MBerto »

No bluetooth = no deal
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#329 Post by Rich Brown »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 12:47 pm No bluetooth = no deal
Ha! I like your style my friend [cheers.gif]

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#330 Post by Rodrigo B »

Interesting data point Matt. Thanks for sharing. I looked through the bidding history on that car. Seems like in the last couple minutes prior to close the auction bidding really started going. People bid in increments of the minimum amount of $250 (no surprise there), with some outliers bidding slightly higher, up until the highest bidder priced everyone out. I couldn’t find when the auction was set to close to get some more data on how long the extended bidding lasted for, which is another key data point when we try to draw parallels between that auction and WineBid's.

WineBid’s OT bidding dynamics are likely to work out slightly different as someone's max bid does not immediately translate to current strike price, so we can expect to see bidders playing around with that before before and during OT
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#331 Post by Wes Barton »

Brian G r a f s t r o m wrote: March 8th, 2021, 11:38 pm
Jayson Cohen wrote: March 8th, 2021, 5:11 pm As predicted, the Max Bid winning bidder at 9:57- (non-sniper) is screwed by a non-winning bid (lower than Max Bid) in the last three minutes as in my example above. That non-winning bid triggers the Initial Overtime even if that Max Bid is still ahead at 10. That does not seem fair. (I’ve put in early bids many times with a Max Bid that someone unsuccessfully tried to swipe at the last second under current rules.)
Agreed. It strikes me as extremely weird that a **losing** bid in the final three minutes would be allowed to trigger the Overtime Period.
Technically, that "losing" outbidding attempt triggers a new high bid. Still, I agree it's weird. The rules dictate game play. Requiring it to be a winning bid to trigger overtime makes sense to me. In cases where there was only a desire to take a shot at poaching at a low price, the wine wouldn't do anything in OT. If it's a feeler with more serious intent behind it, if the rules dictate it be a winning bid to trigger OT, it will incentivize serious bidding before the 3 minute window to try to both win and avoid OT. That would definitely play to more efficiency in reaching the best price.

We really could just see 9:57 be the new 10:00 for most wines. The last 3 minutes is a danger zone, where every bid triggers OT. It'll be interesting to see how this plays.
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#332 Post by Rodrigo B »

Wes Barton wrote: March 9th, 2021, 2:31 pm Technically, that "losing" outbidding attempt triggers a new high bid. Still, I agree it's weird. The rules dictate game play. Requiring it to be a winning bid to trigger overtime makes sense to me. In cases where there was only a desire to take a shot at poaching at a low price, the wine wouldn't do anything in OT. If it's a feeler with more serious intent behind it, if the rules dictate it be a winning bid to trigger OT, it will incentivize serious bidding before the 3 minute window to try to both win and avoid OT. That would definitely play to more efficiency in reaching the best price.

We really could just see 9:57 be the new 10:00 for most wines. The last 3 minutes is a danger zone, where every bid triggers OT. It'll be interesting to see how this plays.
That is one possible scenario, under those circumstances more people will bid their true max bid earlier, with the highest one winning out at auction close, which non-coincidentally is what Russ has been advocating more people do.

I don’t find it unreasonable for a non-winning bid to trigger OT. It’ll be a bidder trying to win the lot. If an existing bid is higher, the bidder has time to adjust their current bid higher to try to win the lot, otherwise the prevailing max bid will win.
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#333 Post by Victor Hong »

Unless a wine is awarded to a bidder without the highest price, or to an involuntary bidder, this discussion is as fruitless as an over-the-hill bottle of wine.
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#334 Post by AndyK »

I strongly dislike these changes because it forces me to spend significantly more time of my Sunday evening on WineBid. What used to be a 5 minute window starting at 6.55pm now becomes a 20 minute session. Most of the sniping will still happen right before 6.57pm, then you need to wait 3 minutes to see if any additional bids come in and then decide which lots to track into overtime.

It's clearly a change that mostly benefits WineBid, not bidders.
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#335 Post by AndyK »

RMann wrote: March 8th, 2021, 4:35 pm Statistically, it is better to place your max bid early in the week. I know some of you don’t believe me, but this is a statistical fact based on the behaviors and outcomes we see in the marketplace.
* Max bids does not mean an immediate bid at that price, which many people are confused by- it only means the max you are willing to go to.
* Max bids are not revealed, so there is no public “information value” of max bidding.
* As others point out, there is a signaling value to bidding early in the week, which often means bidders/snipers move on to other targets.
* There is also a signaling value if you place a max bid a few $ more than the reserve-- if people try to outbid you, whether early or even near the end, a couple of auto-bids will signal your intent and they will often move to another target.
* Finally, as others noted, a max bid beats a manual bid at the same value. So, if a wine is at $70 and your max bid is $73 and someone else bids $73, your $73 wins.
* Max bids will roll over into overtime and take priority in overtime as well.
* But very importantly- do not place falsely high max bids, because a max bid is non-retractable- and if two people place false max bids, someone is going to end up paying a lot for that.
Statistically by percentages of lots won? Or by price per bottle paid?

Of course, placing a max bid early will increase the number of lots people will win, duh.
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#336 Post by Victor Hong »

AndyK wrote: March 9th, 2021, 3:50 pm I strongly dislike these changes because it forces me to spend significantly more time of my Sunday evening on WineBid. What used to be a 5 minute window starting at 6.55pm now becomes a 20 minute session. Most of the sniping will still happen right before 6.57pm, then you need to wait 3 minutes to see if any additional bids come in and then decide which lots to track into overtime.

It's clearly a change that mostly benefits WineBid, not bidders.
Al the bidders, whether losing or winning?
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#337 Post by Rodrigo B »

AndyK wrote: March 9th, 2021, 4:02 pm Statistically by percentages of lots won? Or by price per bottle paid?

Of course, placing a max bid early will increase the number of lots people will win, duh.
FWIW, Alan provided some interesting data points from the sale of some of his wines last week:
Alan Rath wrote: March 6th, 2021, 4:43 pm I happened to have wine in last week's auction, so just for grins I went through and looked at the lots that had activity in the last hour. Out of 75 bottles sold, 9 had bids in the last hour (but not last 10 minutes). 17 had bids in the last 10 minutes.

1 bottle was picked up uncontested in each period.

No last hour bidder lost.
The price increases per bottle were $1(3), $5(2), $10(3)

In the last 10 minutes, 6 bidders lost, who were the last bidders. In most of those cases, an earlier max bid won out, not someone re-sniping.
11 won as the last bidder.
7 bottles gained just $1 in price
The price increases per bottles were $1(7), $2(1), $3(2), $5(1), $7(1), $10(3), $11(1), $17(2)

I actually believe the systemwide slow down probably prevented a few last minute bids, so I think I lost out on a few bucks, but that's life. Don't think that has ever happened before (to me), and I expect them to fix it, so a one time occurrence.

The proposed change might have given extended life to a handful of my bottles, who knows. But I don't see cause for thinking this will change how most lots end, one way or the other.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#338 Post by brigcampbell »

Now for something completely different... I've always liked the Dutch auction concept. The price starts high and works its way down until it hits a bid or the reserve then it's over. That could all happen the final day of the week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_auction
A Dutch auction is one of several similar types of auctions for buying or selling goods. Most commonly, it means an auction in which the auctioneer begins with a high asking price in the case of selling, and lowers it until some participant accepts the price, or it reaches a predetermined reserve price

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#339 Post by MBerto »

AndyK wrote: March 9th, 2021, 3:50 pm It's clearly a change that mostly benefits WineBid, not bidders.
Those are not the only parties to the transaction.
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#340 Post by Victor Hong »

MBerto wrote: March 9th, 2021, 5:34 pm
AndyK wrote: March 9th, 2021, 3:50 pm It's clearly a change that mostly benefits WineBid, not bidders.
Those are not the only parties to the transaction.
Lots of us would be happy to buy nice wine for $1 per bottle. How many of us would sell them there?
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#341 Post by Rodrigo B »

brigcampbell wrote: March 9th, 2021, 5:04 pm Now for something completely different... I've always liked the Dutch auction concept. The price starts high and works its way down until it hits a bid or the reserve then it's over. That could all happen the final day of the week.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_auction
A Dutch auction is one of several similar types of auctions for buying or selling goods. Most commonly, it means an auction in which the auctioneer begins with a high asking price in the case of selling, and lowers it until some participant accepts the price, or it reaches a predetermined reserve price
Dutch auctions are interesting. But they are used predominantly when you are selling large quantities of homogenous goods where supply outstrips demand. Hence why it’s such an effective method for the FRBNY to issue it’s bonds. They tend not to work as well when you’re dealing with large quantities of heterogeneous goods.

For Dutch auctions to be maximise all strike prices in an auction with a large number of lots like WineBid you need to assume that there are enough bidders with large enough budgets to clear all lots at the max bid. Otherwise you’re dealing with bidders’ budget constraints and allocations,

Considering some lots in WineBid cary over through a few weeks, a Dutch auction would likely not be strike price maximising across all the recurring auctions long term. Since you are dealing with a bidder pool that is budget constrained bellow the theoretical strike price maximising aggregate value of strike prices, you may not necessarily maximising strike price across all lots.

Implementing a hybrid system in which some lots are Dutch auctions and some are English auctions, while interesting in concept, would likely be really confusing for customers.

Dutch auctions also require all interested bidders to be present at the same time in order to bid their max, so you’re bound to run into scheduling issues with bidders. Bidders seeking to bid across multiple lots face logistical issues. There’s also the challenge of resolving competing max bids placed at or around the same time. With Dutch auctions on the internet you need to factor in people’s varying internet speeds. With an English auction, the quickest bidder simply raises the bid instead of ending the auction.

And while auctions are predominantly mechanisms for trying to maximise prices for sellers, bidders utility maximisation is reduced, which should not be underestimated, which may lead them to switch sources for purchasing goods. In other words, for bidders to consistently choose to use auctions as an purchasing mechanism, they need to feel like they’ve gotten their’s money worth, or some type of deal where the strike price is at least marginally below their internal max perceived value, otherwise they will shift to purchasing that good elsewhere if possible. Hence why Dutch auctions were so effective where they started. The auction houses in the Netherlands was the only game in town to purchase tulip bulbs. Likewise, FRBNY’s with Dutch auction.
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#342 Post by M Mager »

This thread cracks me up. Russ is gonna bleed you guys dry...

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#343 Post by Victor Hong »

M Mager wrote: March 9th, 2021, 8:37 pm This thread cracks me up. Russ is gonna bleed you guys dry...

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#344 Post by M. Meer »

Reserving judgment for now.
The feature I really miss is being able to swoop in and take the whole lot for the original bid price after individual bottles were bid up. Those were good times.

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#345 Post by Victor Hong »

M. Meer wrote: March 10th, 2021, 11:01 am Reserving judgment for now.
The feature I really miss is being able to swoop in and take the whole lot for the original bid price after individual bottles were bid up. Those were good times.

[stirthepothal.gif]
Cases of 1991 to 1994 Napa reds for $15 or less per bottle. [wow.gif] People could have sniped then, but were too chicken. They chase when prices rise, as FOMO.

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/56 ... rds-Merlot

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/45 ... -Sauvignon

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/39 ... -Sauvignon

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/35 ... nch-Merlot
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#346 Post by M. Meer »

Victor Hong wrote: March 10th, 2021, 11:42 am Cases of 1991 to 1994 Napa reds for $15 or less per bottle. [wow.gif] People could have sniped then, but were too chicken. They chase when prices rise, as FOMO.
Though it's sometimes nice to see 6 bidders politely share a case of wine for the opening bid.

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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#347 Post by Marshall Manning »

M. Meer wrote: March 10th, 2021, 11:01 am Reserving judgment for now.
The feature I really miss is being able to swoop in and take the whole lot for the original bid price after individual bottles were bid up. Those were good times.

[stirthepothal.gif]
I miss those days, too. Got a bunch of '05 Occhipinti Frappato about 10 years ago like that.
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#348 Post by M. Meer »

Marshall Manning wrote: March 10th, 2021, 2:35 pm
I miss those days, too. Got a bunch of '05 Occhipinti Frappato about 10 years ago like that.
Hmm, I remember bidding on some Occhipinti Frappato about 10 years ago and losing... 🤔

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#349 Post by Reece Warren »

Has anyone considered that auction houses are engaged by the vendor/consignor to get as much as they can for the wine they are selling on their behalf?
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Re: For Berserker eyes first- new WineBid feature coming soon

#350 Post by David_K »

Reece Warren wrote: March 10th, 2021, 6:04 pm Has anyone considered that auction houses are engaged by the vendor/consignor to get as much as they can for the wine they are selling on their behalf?
Yes. Literally everyone has considered this.
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