Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#51 Post by m. ristev »

Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 6:06 pm
m. ristev wrote: January 18th, 2021, 5:42 pm https://www.klwines.com/Auction/Bidding ... earchRank=

this is pretty insane...
this is a pretty cultish wine - though the current level of this sale puts it way above the $478/bottle (inc bp) it fetched back in Sept at HDH.
i know the wines very well and was a big fan when it was possible to buy as much as one wanted <$100. i believe the 15 vosne village was around $325 retail from kermit, which was about double the prior releases.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#52 Post by Markus S »

Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 11:58 am The data comes from the various houses, WMJ, and Live Ex. There is a good quarterly write up on the wine market in the World of Fine Wine. I also personally download data from WMJ and the auction houses after every auction and perform various granular analyses.
Is this as a casual observer interested in figures or as someone in the business?
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#53 Post by Markus S »

Marc Hauser wrote: January 18th, 2021, 1:12 pm
Markus S wrote: January 18th, 2021, 9:11 am
L e e H olland wrote: January 18th, 2021, 8:56 am

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.
Don't forget 'free' $2000 checks from the Government every 6 months distorting prices as well!
Right.... all those folks who earn less than the $75k income limit to qualify for the second stimulus check were plowing that money into wine at auction rather than, say, rent. Or food.
Hey, don't judge. [cheers.gif]
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#54 Post by Alex Valdes »

Markus S wrote: January 18th, 2021, 6:56 pm
Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 11:58 am The data comes from the various houses, WMJ, and Live Ex. There is a good quarterly write up on the wine market in the World of Fine Wine. I also personally download data from WMJ and the auction houses after every auction and perform various granular analyses.
Is this as a casual observer interested in figures or as someone in the business?
I am not in the business, I just really like markets, data and analysis (and while my goal is not wine investment, I approach my purchase of wine from a risk and cost management perspective)

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#55 Post by Victor Hong »

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... -de-Laland~

Stunning. Pichon Lalande 1990, $310.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#56 Post by John Telford »

Robert.A.Jr. wrote: January 18th, 2021, 4:26 am
Victor Hong wrote: January 17th, 2021, 7:18 pm .....and expensive?

Geez.....
Yes, and seemingly more so this year. WineBid has gotten more challenging, in particular.
Agree

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#57 Post by Mark Golodetz »

Victor Hong wrote: February 1st, 2021, 2:30 pm https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... -de-Laland~

Stunning. Pichon Lalande 1990, $310.
You can ask whatever you like, but it is meaningless if there are no bidders.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#58 Post by Robert.A.Jr. »

Seemed like there was even less product up on WineBid this week as well. At least not the stuff that I am looking for. And the pricing, like on that Lalande, are crazy. Not a criticism of WineBid, a platform that I like, more commentary on the market itself.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#59 Post by Victor Hong »

Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:14 am
Victor Hong wrote: February 1st, 2021, 2:30 pm https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... -de-Laland~

Stunning. Pichon Lalande 1990, $310.
You can ask whatever you like, but it is meaningless if there are no bidders.
You have made my point, as the current bid is $310.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#60 Post by Mark Golodetz »

Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 7:01 pm
Markus S wrote: January 18th, 2021, 6:56 pm
Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 11:58 am The data comes from the various houses, WMJ, and Live Ex. There is a good quarterly write up on the wine market in the World of Fine Wine. I also personally download data from WMJ and the auction houses after every auction and perform various granular analyses.
Is this as a casual observer interested in figures or as someone in the business?
I am not in the business, I just really like markets, data and analysis (and while my goal is not wine investment, I approach my purchase of wine from a risk and cost management perspective)
Can you give an example of a purchase, and the reasoning behind it?
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#61 Post by Rodrigo B »

Mark’s right that auction prices on WineBid is only meaningful if they are market clearing, but given that someone has already placed a $310 bid on Victor’s example of PLL that makes it market clearing. Not sure why one would bid that when the same wine is available at retail for less, but to each their own.

On auction prices in general, it’s not only the auction house setting the prices, the consigner also does have some say in the reserves or prices, so its tough to place all the blame on the auction house.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#62 Post by MikeL238 »

Given that the same sold for far less on Winebid in the last couple of months, this was definitely the price that the seller was asking rather than the price Winebid assigned. I can't blame anyone for willing to pay what they want, but I agree with you all- a bit of research could have made the bidder realize that the seller priced the bottle a lot higher than what it's going for in the market.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#63 Post by Mark Golodetz »

Victor Hong wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:25 am
Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:14 am
Victor Hong wrote: February 1st, 2021, 2:30 pm https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... -de-Laland~

Stunning. Pichon Lalande 1990, $310.
You can ask whatever you like, but it is meaningless if there are no bidders.
You have made my point, as the current bid is $310.
Uhm, 5 Trackers and no Bidders. It may end up selling, but...
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#64 Post by Victor Hong »

Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 10:25 am
Victor Hong wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:25 am
Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:14 am

You can ask whatever you like, but it is meaningless if there are no bidders.
You have made my point, as the current bid is $310.
Uhm, 5 Trackers and no Bidders. It may end up selling, but...
Bidder tag is "delod".
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#65 Post by Mark Golodetz »

MikeL238 wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:45 am Given that the same sold for far less on Winebid in the last couple of months, this was definitely the price that the seller was asking rather than the price Winebid assigned. I can't blame anyone for willing to pay what they want, but I agree with you all- a bit of research could have made the bidder realize that the seller priced the bottle a lot higher than what it's going for in the market.
It is also a fairly mediocre wine.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#66 Post by Mark Golodetz »

pepsi [worship.gif] Ah. Only comes up if you sign in. And the buyer wants two
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#67 Post by Victor Hong »

Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 10:30 am pepsi [worship.gif] Ah. Only comes up if you sign in. And the buyer wants two
Is that not your main source? neener
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#68 Post by Joseph Grassa »

Wine has just gotten more popular. I think everyone should buy less so the prices drop and I can pick up more champagne.gif

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#69 Post by Victor Hong »

Joseph Grassa wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 11:00 am Wine has just gotten more popular. I think everyone should buy less so the prices drop and I can pick up more champagne.gif
Do that with stocks instead.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#70 Post by HoosJustinG »

Old California from established but not trophy producers (think Mayacamas, Diamond Creek, Heitz) is through the roof. No fun...
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#71 Post by Victor Hong »

HoosJustinG wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 11:19 am Old California from established but not trophy producers (think Mayacamas, Diamond Creek, Heitz) is through the roof. No fun...
Short them.



Oh, wait,................ pileon
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#72 Post by crickey »

Regarding the 1990 PLL, according to Winesearcher, in the US there is an offer from a liquor store in California (no shipments outside of CA) for $194, a case from Westgarth for $247 ($309 if you want to include tariffs as it is pre-arrival), and a final offer from somewhere in Washington for $485. The Park Avenue Liquor listing is actually the 2002, not the 1990. So if you don't live in either California or don't want a case, the choice is either Winebid or $485.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#73 Post by Victor Hong »

crickey wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 12:08 pm Regarding the 1990 PLL, according to Winesearcher, in the US there is an offer from a liquor store in California (no shipments outside of CA) for $194, a case from Westgarth for $247 ($309 if you want to include tariffs as it is pre-arrival), and a final offer from somewhere in Washington for $485. The Park Avenue Liquor listing is actually the 2002, not the 1990. So if you don't live in either California or don't want a case, the choice is either Winebid or $485.
Market efficiency. [snort.gif]
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#74 Post by Alex Valdes »

Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:30 am
Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 7:01 pm
Markus S wrote: January 18th, 2021, 6:56 pm

Is this as a casual observer interested in figures or as someone in the business?
I am not in the business, I just really like markets, data and analysis (and while my goal is not wine investment, I approach my purchase of wine from a risk and cost management perspective)
Can you give an example of a purchase, and the reasoning behind it?
Hi Mark,

Just to start, I don't buy wine to sell wine; I buy to drink over the long term and I want to drink as well as a possible at the best price. Since I have both pretty clear drinking preferences and a budget, I try to tactically adjust what I am buying based on supply/demand pressures as well as buying opportunities. That means I adjust my normal region purchasing weights (between White Burgundy, Red Burgundy, Rhone, Champagne, Riesling and others), classification weights (village, 1er Cru, GC) and producer mixes depending on how the market is behaving. I can understand this might sound like work to some people, but for me this is fun.

Let me give two examples:

Buying into the front part of the classification curve
One indicator I look at for value is the relationship between village - 1er Cru - GC. I've worked out what seems to be a reasonable relationship band between these three. I've also noticed how they move (usually GCs first, then 1er then Village). As a result, I started buying more 1er Cru as it got stretched (I became more overweight Roumier Les Cras as a result of this before the prices popped, same with some 1er Cru Liger Belair). Currently, due to what looks like increased demand for village and 1er cru wine by people looking for quality relative to price, the 1er and increasingly village level wines are overbought and the curve is perhaps too flat (i.e. GCs are "cheap" on a relative basis). Now, I think many of the GCs are appropriately priced, but I think there is price pressure building (and you can start to see it in both some of the leading labels as well as in some of up-and-comers pushing to new prices) so I think GCs will start to move up shortly relative to their lower-classified counterparts.


Going overweight producers to get ahead of market pressure and buying out-of-favor producers
There are always new producers coming to market as the next big thing and some existing producers, for whatever reason, fall out of favor. One way some producers fall out of favor is just a function of what is in vogue in auction season. While DRC is a perennial player, the volumes transacted for other houses, even this big names, is much more variable. Of course, seeing fresh highs leads people to want to offer more lots, brokers to buy more and re-sell, etc. This is where you can find two helpful signals:

(1), which many of you like to point out anecdotally, is the auction/retail spread. On the surface this shouldn't be that helpful a signal because demanders should just go buy at retail at the better price. Simple. But there are various reasons, besides price discovery, for why this doesn't happen. For me, the most helpful signal is to use the auction prices across months and auctions (i.e. not just the big Burgundy auction) plus broker offer numbers (not published but you can get quotes if you ask) to settle the fair price and projected trend and then find wine sitting in stores to buy. This worked out a lot last year as the pandemic created a lot of opportunities at small stores with lots of shipping restrictions who wanted to move their wine (remember: the list price isn't what you will actually transact at). I tend to not do this with much aged wine as that gets riskier but good for recent releases (also stores mostly want to move recent wine and tend to be a bit less motivated to move that older bottle).

(2) The other helpful signals is the peer group index. Basically, if wines you expect to be roughly equally valued and one gets really cheap you should buy it. Now, wine doesn't become cheap just because. It is likely either a) something is perceived to be bad about the producer now or b) the peers are considered better than before. Both are helpful to plan buying. Lets take the "producer is considered worse now" side of the problem: in white Burgundy this absolutely happened to Leflaive with the increased risk of premox. I calculated the "premox discount" and then bought Leflaive when it priced under this discount. I found a lot of good deals (many of which thankfully were not poxed) and passed many places where it seemed expensive / the pricing didn't account for the discount.

I hope this helps

Alex
Last edited by Alex Valdes on February 2nd, 2021, 5:04 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#75 Post by Chris Seiber »

I'm like Victor, I used to enjoy Winebid in the search for good drinkers that didn't have the cachet to attract attention and bids, particularly mature examples of those, or to a lesser extent maybe wines that you didn't find at retail.

I quit winebid maybe 10 years ago or so just because it was too good, and I was shopping too much and buying too many bottles, so I just cut myself off. But it sounds like the market has caught up anyway, and those 20 year old bottles of non-buzzworthy Napa cabs and Brunellos and so forth are a steal no longer.

At the same time, it gets easier and easier to find those kinds of wines lurking somewhere in the country at retail. I bought four bottles from a retailer in Nashville recently, CANA Wine Company. Two bottles of 2007 Huet Le Mont ($59@), a 1999 Shafer Napa Cabernet ($65), and 2002 School House Pinot ($85), with a 10% discount for being a new customer. It's the kind of purchase I might have made from Winebid in the past.

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#76 Post by TimF »

I just noticed the last week or two that my favorites on WineBid are extremely sparse. Seemed strange to me.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#77 Post by Victor Hong »

They are? newhere
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#78 Post by Br1an Th0rne »

Winebid’s prices for mature Bordeaux have been out of whack versus the broader auction market for a few years now. That ‘90 PLL goes for about $180, inclusive of premium, at the major auction houses. Their Napa prices are competitive but mature red Bordeaux is not...strange how that has evolved over the last few years.
Last edited by Br1an Th0rne on February 2nd, 2021, 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#79 Post by crickey »

Br1an Th0rne wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 5:14 pm Winebid’s prices for mature Bordeaux have been out of whack versus the auction market for a few years now. That ‘90 PLL goes for about $180, inclusive of premium, at the major auction houses. Their Napa prices are competitive but mature red Bordeaux is not...strange how that has evolved over the last few years.
Winebid is part of the auction market, and they don't appear to have issues selling the Bordeaux. Even that 1990 PLL has a buyer at $300.

It's not mature, but at the end of December I bought 2010 Montrose on Winebid for $257/bottle. At the HDH auction last week, it went for $328/bottle. Around mid-2020, it was about $220/bottle. I think it is less Winebid than Bordeaux prices in general, at least at the high end of the market.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#80 Post by JMReuter »

I just consigned over 200 bottles to WineBid. Mostly stuff from California that I'd bought way too much of (think Rhys and Rivers-Marie and Shafer Hillside), but also a variety of things from France and Italy. WineBid gave me a "reserve" for each bottle in my cellar and I chose what to consign. Some of the reserves seemed high to me and some seemed low, but they're the ones with all the data. Of course, I'm curious to see what things actually sell for. I expect to lose some money along the way, but that's what I get for buying way more wine each year than I drink.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#81 Post by Br1an Th0rne »

crickey wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 5:53 pm
Br1an Th0rne wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 5:14 pm Winebid’s prices for mature Bordeaux have been out of whack versus the auction market for a few years now. That ‘90 PLL goes for about $180, inclusive of premium, at the major auction houses. Their Napa prices are competitive but mature red Bordeaux is not...strange how that has evolved over the last few years.
Winebid is part of the auction market, and they don't appear to have issues selling the Bordeaux. Even that 1990 PLL has a buyer at $300.

It's not mature, but at the end of December I bought 2010 Montrose on Winebid for $257/bottle. At the HDH auction last week, it went for $328/bottle. Around mid-2020, it was about $220/bottle. I think it is less Winebid than Bordeaux prices in general, at least at the high end of the market.
I didn’t say winebid had problems selling Bordeaux; they obviously have plenty of people who are willing to pay prices that are higher than what can be found at other auction houses. I am not one of them! You and the person at HDH both paid more than the average auction price for the 2010 montrose; average q1 auction price was $238, inclusive of premium, according to wine market journal. OWC’s of 2010 Montrose sold for $200 and $249, inclusive for premium, at January auctions. Either way, it’s a great wine; enjoy it!

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#82 Post by Marcu$ Stanley »

MikeL238 wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:45 am Given that the same sold for far less on Winebid in the last couple of months, this was definitely the price that the seller was asking rather than the price Winebid assigned. I can't blame anyone for willing to pay what they want, but I agree with you all- a bit of research could have made the bidder realize that the seller priced the bottle a lot higher than what it's going for in the market.
It’s already been bid up to 330 so 310 was not below market. Also, quoting the bid price is lowballing it, winebid charges over 20% in fees and tax so that 330 bid means someone is willing to pay about $400 for it. Face it, wine prices are skyrocketing right now.

And yes, auction houses are searching hard for lots — last HDH auction had a ton of weird mixed lots of obscure wines, which seemed to sell well

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#83 Post by Mark Golodetz »

Alex Valdes wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 1:20 pm
Mark Golodetz wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 7:30 am
Alex Valdes wrote: January 18th, 2021, 7:01 pm

I am not in the business, I just really like markets, data and analysis (and while my goal is not wine investment, I approach my purchase of wine from a risk and cost management perspective)
Can you give an example of a purchase, and the reasoning behind it?
Hi Mark,

Just to start, I don't buy wine to sell wine; I buy to drink over the long term and I want to drink as well as a possible at the best price. Since I have both pretty clear drinking preferences and a budget, I try to tactically adjust what I am buying based on supply/demand pressures as well as buying opportunities. That means I adjust my normal region purchasing weights (between White Burgundy, Red Burgundy, Rhone, Champagne, Riesling and others), classification weights (village, 1er Cru, GC) and producer mixes depending on how the market is behaving. I can understand this might sound like work to some people, but for me this is fun.

Let me give two examples:

Buying into the front part of the classification curve
One indicator I look at for value is the relationship between village - 1er Cru - GC. I've worked out what seems to be a reasonable relationship band between these three. I've also noticed how they move (usually GCs first, then 1er then Village). As a result, I started buying more 1er Cru as it got stretched (I became more overweight Roumier Les Cras as a result of this before the prices popped, same with some 1er Cru Liger Belair). Currently, due to what looks like increased demand for village and 1er cru wine by people looking for quality relative to price, the 1er and increasingly village level wines are overbought and the curve is perhaps too flat (i.e. GCs are "cheap" on a relative basis). Now, I think many of the GCs are appropriately priced, but I think there is price pressure building (and you can start to see it in both some of the leading labels as well as in some of up-and-comers pushing to new prices) so I think GCs will start to move up shortly relative to their lower-classified counterparts.


Going overweight producers to get ahead of market pressure and buying out-of-favor producers
There are always new producers coming to market as the next big thing and some existing producers, for whatever reason, fall out of favor. One way some producers fall out of favor is just a function of what is in vogue in auction season. While DRC is a perennial player, the volumes transacted for other houses, even this big names, is much more variable. Of course, seeing fresh highs leads people to want to offer more lots, brokers to buy more and re-sell, etc. This is where you can find two helpful signals:

(1), which many of you like to point out anecdotally, is the auction/retail spread. On the surface this shouldn't be that helpful a signal because demanders should just go buy at retail at the better price. Simple. But there are various reasons, besides price discovery, for why this doesn't happen. For me, the most helpful signal is to use the auction prices across months and auctions (i.e. not just the big Burgundy auction) plus broker offer numbers (not published but you can get quotes if you ask) to settle the fair price and projected trend and then find wine sitting in stores to buy. This worked out a lot last year as the pandemic created a lot of opportunities at small stores with lots of shipping restrictions who wanted to move their wine (remember: the list price isn't what you will actually transact at). I tend to not do this with much aged wine as that gets riskier but good for recent releases (also stores mostly want to move recent wine and tend to be a bit less motivated to move that older bottle).

(2) The other helpful signals is the peer group index. Basically, if wines you expect to be roughly equally valued and one gets really cheap you should buy it. Now, wine doesn't become cheap just because. It is likely either a) something is perceived to be bad about the producer now or b) the peers are considered better than before. Both are helpful to plan buying. Lets take the "producer is considered worse now" side of the problem: in white Burgundy this absolutely happened to Leflaive with the increased risk of premox. I calculated the "premox discount" and then bought Leflaive when it priced under this discount. I found a lot of good deals (many of which thankfully were not poxed) and passed many places where it seemed expensive / the pricing didn't account for the discount.

I hope this helps

Alex
Thanks, Alex. Glanced quickly, will look in more detail later, when I have a little more time
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#84 Post by RMann »

Hi everyone, great observations! Appreciate that you all are such keen observers and participants of the wine auction market in general and WineBid in particular. Most of your observations are pretty spot on, although there are a few things that far off the mark. Without trying to comment on every note, some things you all might appreciate:
* The overall wine market is down due to lack of on premise restaurant/bar/airline/event sales and lack of tasting room/wine tourism sales. But off-premise sales are up, and off-premise ONLINE sales are WAY up.
* The online wine folks (Wine.com, WineBid, Drizly, Vivino) are all up big. The live auction houses and local brick and mortars are mixed- some up, some down, depending how they handled the past year.
* Yes, it has become more competitive on WineBid. We had a huge uptick of new buyers this past year. And they are across the board from $10 wines to $10,000 wines.
* While I love all the Berserkers and spent an inordinate amount of time here, you all represent only a very small fraction of the global community on WineBid (and at the other auction houses), especially in the past two years. We have over 50,000 unique people on the site per month and literally thousands of bidders per week, from all over the globe.
* With regard to bidding against each other- some of you have been with us a very long time and may recognize each other's handles now and then, but the chances of bidding against each other is reasonably low, unless you are on a wine thread or text group or following a particular critic that mentioned something and then everyone in your group went to bid on it.
* Finally, the internet has made everything much more transparent and fast, and with WineBid, Wine-Searcher, and other resources, private individuals often have as much or sometimes even more access to information and sophistication than retailers or old-school houses. Which means the market is much more efficient, deals are harder to come by, sometimes location arbitrage (taxes and shipping) becomes the only real differentiator, or maybe knowing something is about to get a 100 point rating before it's published- "Blue Horseshoe loves Daou?" LOL I made that up but you get what I mean.

We expect to be adding more wines than ever this year, and doing things to the site to make it more fun and more convenient, and still the best deal and lowest buyer's premium, to find, bid, buy, win, and then taste and share wines.

Hope the info above helps answer some of the speculation and happy tasting and sharing in 2021. Really appreciate all you Berserkers!
Russ Mann, CEO WineBid

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#85 Post by tpetty »

Thanks Russ. Always interesting to hear directly from the business being discussed!
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#86 Post by Alex Valdes »

As 4th quarter data comes in, Zachys + Acker (roughly 60% of the global auction market) show a slight combined decrease in revenue from 2019 (Acker didn't give lots for sale numbers so I can't give a revenue per lot figure). Acker did break out their web auctions, stating they represent 12.25% of their total auction revenue (this is a lot given where it was just 2 years ago, though they did add weekly sales this year)

I am interested in seeing how Christies, Sothebys and the rest did. WMJ indices are mostly all up since 2019, especially the wines that were depressed relative to 2018 (I'm looking at you DRC) but only some are pushing through to fresh highs (CA Cult wines).

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#87 Post by Victor Hong »

RMann wrote: February 3rd, 2021, 2:16 pm Hi everyone, great observations! Appreciate that you all are such keen observers and participants of the wine auction market in general and WineBid in particular. Most of your observations are pretty spot on, although there are a few things that far off the mark. Without trying to comment on every note, some things you all might appreciate:
* The overall wine market is down due to lack of on premise restaurant/bar/airline/event sales and lack of tasting room/wine tourism sales. But off-premise sales are up, and off-premise ONLINE sales are WAY up.
* The online wine folks (Wine.com, WineBid, Drizly, Vivino) are all up big. The live auction houses and local brick and mortars are mixed- some up, some down, depending how they handled the past year.
* Yes, it has become more competitive on WineBid. We had a huge uptick of new buyers this past year. And they are across the board from $10 wines to $10,000 wines.
* While I love all the Berserkers and spent an inordinate amount of time here, you all represent only a very small fraction of the global community on WineBid (and at the other auction houses), especially in the past two years. We have over 50,000 unique people on the site per month and literally thousands of bidders per week, from all over the globe.
* With regard to bidding against each other- some of you have been with us a very long time and may recognize each other's handles now and then, but the chances of bidding against each other is reasonably low, unless you are on a wine thread or text group or following a particular critic that mentioned something and then everyone in your group went to bid on it.
* Finally, the internet has made everything much more transparent and fast, and with WineBid, Wine-Searcher, and other resources, private individuals often have as much or sometimes even more access to information and sophistication than retailers or old-school houses. Which means the market is much more efficient, deals are harder to come by, sometimes location arbitrage (taxes and shipping) becomes the only real differentiator, or maybe knowing something is about to get a 100 point rating before it's published- "Blue Horseshoe loves Daou?" LOL I made that up but you get what I mean.

We expect to be adding more wines than ever this year, and doing things to the site to make it more fun and more convenient, and still the best deal and lowest buyer's premium, to find, bid, buy, win, and then taste and share wines.

Hope the info above helps answer some of the speculation and happy tasting and sharing in 2021. Really appreciate all you Berserkers!
I recall chatting in Noo Yawk with you in Autumn 2019 about my bottom-fishing for aged, cheap, but unrecognized beauties via your site, and praying that somebody might someday cut loose a Liparita stash.

Lo and behold, it happened and the WineHunter pounced, trounced, and swept up so much.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#88 Post by MikeL238 »

Victor Hong wrote: February 3rd, 2021, 5:35 pm
RMann wrote: February 3rd, 2021, 2:16 pm Hi everyone, great observations! Appreciate that you all are such keen observers and participants of the wine auction market in general and WineBid in particular. Most of your observations are pretty spot on, although there are a few things that far off the mark. Without trying to comment on every note, some things you all might appreciate:
* The overall wine market is down due to lack of on premise restaurant/bar/airline/event sales and lack of tasting room/wine tourism sales. But off-premise sales are up, and off-premise ONLINE sales are WAY up.
* The online wine folks (Wine.com, WineBid, Drizly, Vivino) are all up big. The live auction houses and local brick and mortars are mixed- some up, some down, depending how they handled the past year.
* Yes, it has become more competitive on WineBid. We had a huge uptick of new buyers this past year. And they are across the board from $10 wines to $10,000 wines.
* While I love all the Berserkers and spent an inordinate amount of time here, you all represent only a very small fraction of the global community on WineBid (and at the other auction houses), especially in the past two years. We have over 50,000 unique people on the site per month and literally thousands of bidders per week, from all over the globe.
* With regard to bidding against each other- some of you have been with us a very long time and may recognize each other's handles now and then, but the chances of bidding against each other is reasonably low, unless you are on a wine thread or text group or following a particular critic that mentioned something and then everyone in your group went to bid on it.
* Finally, the internet has made everything much more transparent and fast, and with WineBid, Wine-Searcher, and other resources, private individuals often have as much or sometimes even more access to information and sophistication than retailers or old-school houses. Which means the market is much more efficient, deals are harder to come by, sometimes location arbitrage (taxes and shipping) becomes the only real differentiator, or maybe knowing something is about to get a 100 point rating before it's published- "Blue Horseshoe loves Daou?" LOL I made that up but you get what I mean.

We expect to be adding more wines than ever this year, and doing things to the site to make it more fun and more convenient, and still the best deal and lowest buyer's premium, to find, bid, buy, win, and then taste and share wines.

Hope the info above helps answer some of the speculation and happy tasting and sharing in 2021. Really appreciate all you Berserkers!
I recall chatting in Noo Yawk with you in Autumn 2019 about my bottom-fishing for aged, cheap, but unrecognized beauties via your site, and praying that somebody might someday cut loose a Liparita stash.

Lo and behold, it happened and the WineHunter pounced, trounced, and swept up so much.
I took the remaining Liparita stash after you swept through them! [snort.gif]
Mike Leigh

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#89 Post by Victor Hong »

The 1992 Merlot has been standing well against some 2000 Pomerol, lately. Only three bottles left. [cry.gif]
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#90 Post by JonathanG »

crickey wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 12:08 pm Regarding the 1990 PLL, according to Winesearcher, in the US there is an offer from a liquor store in California (no shipments outside of CA) for $194, a case from Westgarth for $247 ($309 if you want to include tariffs as it is pre-arrival), and a final offer from somewhere in Washington for $485. The Park Avenue Liquor listing is actually the 2002, not the 1990. So if you don't live in either California or don't want a case, the choice is either Winebid or $485.
If there are a lot of instances like this, why wouldnt winebid simply buy those wines and list them to earn the arbitrage? Maybe a fun startup business for someone, making money off the arbitrage in auction v retail prices.
J0|\|@+h@|\| Gr@h/\/\/-\|\||\|

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#91 Post by Victor Hong »

JonathanG wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:37 am
crickey wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 12:08 pm Regarding the 1990 PLL, according to Winesearcher, in the US there is an offer from a liquor store in California (no shipments outside of CA) for $194, a case from Westgarth for $247 ($309 if you want to include tariffs as it is pre-arrival), and a final offer from somewhere in Washington for $485. The Park Avenue Liquor listing is actually the 2002, not the 1990. So if you don't live in either California or don't want a case, the choice is either Winebid or $485.
If there are a lot of instances like this, why wouldnt winebid simply buy those wines and list them to earn the arbitrage? Maybe a fun startup business for someone, making money off the arbitrage in auction v retail prices.
For a long while, the arbitrage existed in reverse. No mas.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#92 Post by Alex Valdes »

Victor Hong wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:45 am
JonathanG wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:37 am
crickey wrote: February 2nd, 2021, 12:08 pm Regarding the 1990 PLL, according to Winesearcher, in the US there is an offer from a liquor store in California (no shipments outside of CA) for $194, a case from Westgarth for $247 ($309 if you want to include tariffs as it is pre-arrival), and a final offer from somewhere in Washington for $485. The Park Avenue Liquor listing is actually the 2002, not the 1990. So if you don't live in either California or don't want a case, the choice is either Winebid or $485.
If there are a lot of instances like this, why wouldnt winebid simply buy those wines and list them to earn the arbitrage? Maybe a fun startup business for someone, making money off the arbitrage in auction v retail prices.
For a long while, the arbitrage existed in reverse. No mas.
Obviously begs the questions: why would it ever exist?, why would it flip? and would I expect it to flip again or converge to zero?

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#93 Post by Victor Hong »

Alex Valdes wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:49 am
Victor Hong wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:45 am
JonathanG wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:37 am

If there are a lot of instances like this, why wouldnt winebid simply buy those wines and list them to earn the arbitrage? Maybe a fun startup business for someone, making money off the arbitrage in auction v retail prices.
For a long while, the arbitrage existed in reverse. No mas.
Obviously begs the questions: why would it ever exist?, why would it flip? and would I expect it to flip again or converge to zero?
Lack of WineHunters.
WineHunters.
Maybe. Equilibrium is an ideal, not a rule.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#94 Post by Alex Valdes »

Victor Hong wrote: February 4th, 2021, 8:06 am
Alex Valdes wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:49 am
Victor Hong wrote: February 4th, 2021, 7:45 am
For a long while, the arbitrage existed in reverse. No mas.
Obviously begs the questions: why would it ever exist?, why would it flip? and would I expect it to flip again or converge to zero?
Lack of WineHunters.
WineHunters.
Maybe. Equilibrium is an ideal, not a rule.
The WineHunter cycle. I see a Sveriges Riksbank Prize around the corner.

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#95 Post by Victor Hong »

WineHunter.

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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#96 Post by MikeL238 »

Victor Hong wrote: February 14th, 2021, 4:47 pm Watch this:

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... ry-Reserve
[pillow-fight.gif] [popcorn.gif]
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#97 Post by Victor Hong »

MikeL238 wrote: February 14th, 2021, 5:23 pm
Victor Hong wrote: February 14th, 2021, 4:47 pm Watch this:

https://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/77 ... ry-Reserve
[pillow-fight.gif] [popcorn.gif]
Just jumped from $47 to $57. Not done yet...

Time to sell some VTSAX, and buy these remaining 1994 California reds.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#98 Post by Victor Hong »

Now $62.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#99 Post by Victor Hong »

This bottling is great drinking now.
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Re: Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

#100 Post by Cris Whetstone »

Victor Hong wrote: February 14th, 2021, 6:49 pm This bottling is great drinking now.
Interesting. I've never really looked at those. I haven't had the pleasure of trying any older ones and my experiences with older BV in general has been mixed to 'meh'.

But I do eye the 90's stuff every week. [wink.gif]
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