Have wine auction lots become much more scarce....?

[Victor Hong]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

[Michael Martin]

Yep

[Victor Hong]

The aged, non-prestige, old-school over-achievers are no longer cheap. WineHunting has gotten tougher.

[MikeL238]

Always loved finding a gem or two every week, but it seems that the reserves have gone up and a lot more bidders (good for the company/auction houses I guess).

[Marcus Montanile]

I really only started hunting at auction 2 years ago and this past year has seemed a lot harder/more expensive. Maybe people trying to backfill cellars/explore as all the wine gets consumed through the lockdown.

[Victor Hong]

I really only started hunting at auction 2 years ago and this past year has seemed a lot harder/more expensive. Maybe people trying to backfill cellars/explore as all the wine gets consumed through the lockdown.

That seems the answer.

[David Kubiak]

My thought was a bit the opposite seeing HDH’s January sale catalogue. I have never seen so many lots of lesser tier wines in such great quantity. Which may prove your point. People think they can now turn a good profit on Santenay and obscure St. Emilion’s, the stellar wines having become so wildly expensive.

[Rich K0rz€nk0]

On scarce, that's a matter of taste and what you re looking for. I've not had trouble finding my needs over time. Looking for rare, weird, or odd, maybe need to be patient.

That leads to the second matter, expensive...

Yes, often hefty-priced depending on vintage and uniqueness for lack of a better term. Using auction price as a baseline, I have found many wines that are less than 20 years old are available on Wine Searcher from reputable shops that come in less than or at the auction price. Super rare or "cult", different deal. Teh things most people folloe welcome home. Price-wise, that obviously precludes a 17% premium which gets tacked on WB. Shipping is just a reality though some get weird with offering only higher end options. Had that today.

All said, my thoughts, use auction for the things you can't fine and research pricing to make sure its fair. Cruise shops for things you like, bulk ship when you can. There/s no such thing as free shipping, so be fair.

[Robert.A.Jr.]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

Yes, and seemingly more so this year. WineBid has gotten more challenging, in particular.

[Dennis Atick]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

Yes, and seemingly more so this year. WineBid has gotten more challenging, in particular.

Yep. I am being more selective as I have too much wine and need to stop, but for while it was easy to grab 6-12 bottles per month at WB. Now, I've been holding four bottles in storage with them since late summer. Just not like it used to be.

[Mark Golodetz]

Many wines are exceeding retail, and older blue chips seem to be very expensive.

[JDavisRoby]

Enough that I’ve considered selling about half my collection.

[Michael Martin]

Winebid has become far more competitive. I have been sniped way more in the last two months than I have been in the last two years.

[L e e H olland]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

Yes, and seemingly more so this year. WineBid has gotten more challenging, in particular.

I definitely agree with this. I'm relatively new to winebid myself, joined in 2018, but even I could tell a difference in 2020. I previously followed several bottles for a few weeks, then made a monthly buy when/if the price dropped below the retail range or at least close to what I previously paid. Not much of what I have followed seems to make it there anymore.

[Robert.A.Jr.]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

[L e e H olland]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

[Alex Valdes]

1. From my analysis, WB is often worst value for blue chips across Burg and Bordeaux
2. Retail lags auction, so if there is an increase in demand you will see it reflected in auction prices first (you will see retail quantities either already at zero or soon after)
3. Auction prices are pretty variable across platforms and countries. Just look at WMJ for the level of intrayear fluctuations possible

All told, prices roughly flat year on year. In burgundy, prices are up for 1er and Village wine but marquee 1er cru and GC have mostly held firm or fallen a touch. There have been some one-off pops (Italian and champagne notably) but they are normalizing.

In my buying I’ve found good deals this year but in different places than years prior.

[Alex Valdes]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

While aggregated Q4 data isn’t out yet (last I checked) auction buying is down in 2020 vs 2019.

[Anthony C]

Don't forget tariffs. People stocking up on wines that are already imported assuming new ones will have a surcharge or worse. Now that some distributors are halting imports altogether to see what the situation will be later this year there's a scarcity element as well.

I had a decent experience at Winebid last year but I wasn't going after anything monumental. Just backfilling some stuff. I think I got everything at opening bid but again, nothing too competitive.

[Markus S]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

Why, what are you looking for?

[Markus S]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

Don't forget 'free' $2000 checks from the Government every 6 months distorting prices as well!

[Corey N.]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I think it's very much the Covid effect, combined with a surging stock market. People feel flush with cash and they are "treating themselves" during a stressful time.

Personally, I miss buying from HdH retail even more than I miss auctions. For a while I was making a trip to HdH every 7-10 days.

[Alex Valdes]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I think it's very much the Covid effect, combined with a surging stock market. People feel flush with cash and they are "treating themselves" during a stressful time.

Personally, I miss buying from HdH retail even more than I miss auctions. For a while I was making a trip to HdH every 7-10 days.

The data says otherwise - buying at auction is down relative to 2019 (I don’t think Wine Bid is included in the dataset but Zachys, HDH, Acker, Sothebys, Heritage, KL, etc are).

[Marcus Montanile]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I think it's very much the Covid effect, combined with a surging stock market. People feel flush with cash and they are "treating themselves" during a stressful time.

Personally, I miss buying from HdH retail even more than I miss auctions. For a while I was making a trip to HdH every 7-10 days.

The data says otherwise - buying at auction is down relative to 2019 (I don’t think Wine Bid is included in the dataset but Zachys, HDH, Acker, Sothebys, Heritage, KL, etc are).

Is that price per bottle? quantity? total dollars spent?

[Alex Valdes]

I think it's very much the Covid effect, combined with a surging stock market. People feel flush with cash and they are "treating themselves" during a stressful time.

Personally, I miss buying from HdH retail even more than I miss auctions. For a while I was making a trip to HdH every 7-10 days.

The data says otherwise - buying at auction is down relative to 2019 (I don’t think Wine Bid is included in the dataset but Zachys, HDH, Acker, Sothebys, Heritage, KL, etc are).

Is that price per bottle? quantity? total dollars spent?

Total dollars spent.

[Corey N.]

The data says otherwise - buying at auction is down relative to 2019 (I don’t think Wine Bid is included in the dataset but Zachys, HDH, Acker, Sothebys, Heritage, KL, etc are).

Is that price per bottle? quantity? total dollars spent?

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

[Alex Valdes]

Is that price per bottle? quantity? total dollars spent?

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Yes agree. Given the data I’ve seen, lots for sale fell 11% and revenue fell 24%. Grant it, this specific dataset is limited to “live auctions” which does not include the weekly auctions that have grown a lot in this period (accounting for 20ish% of 2020 revenues) but still you can glean from the data (as well as bottle price indices) that what I am saying triangulates: prices haven’t moved much due to demand being, at best, flat to 2019.

[Marcus Montanile]

Is that price per bottle? quantity? total dollars spent?

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Agree here. Total dollars spent is down, but potential number of lots being down increases the competition for those lots, leading to the anecdotal experiences in this thread. For a while, KL only had 400-500 lots going while their usual is 750-800

[Alex Valdes]

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Agree here. Total dollars spent is down, but potential number of lots being down increases the competition for those lots, leading to the anecdotal experiences in this thread.

I answered this above.

[Alex Valdes]

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Agree here. Total dollars spent is down, but potential number of lots being down increases the competition for those lots, leading to the anecdotal experiences in this thread.

Of course, to do this accurately we would need to do this at a much finer grain (because lots could be differently sized, different levels of wine, etc). I do this analysis but for a much smaller set of wine (as it is more time consuming) - mainly blue chip Burgundy. My findings are broadly consistent with what I wrote above at the region level but there are divergences when you look deeper

[Victor Hong]

.....and expensive?

Geez.....

Why, what are you looking for?

Cheap but good.

[Marcus Montanile]

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Agree here. Total dollars spent is down, but potential number of lots being down increases the competition for those lots, leading to the anecdotal experiences in this thread.

Of course, to do this accurately we would need to do this at a much finer grain (because lots could be differently sized, different levels of wine, etc). I do this analysis but for a much smaller set of wine (as it is more time consuming) - mainly blue chip Burgundy. My findings are broadly consistent with what I wrote above at the region level but there are divergences when you look deeper

Fair, most of my experiences are looking for aged: California, less expensive burg/bordeaux, beaujolais, CdP because I havent been drinking long enough to have 90s/2000s wines. In these categories, it feels tougher now.

[Alex Valdes]

Agree here. Total dollars spent is down, but potential number of lots being down increases the competition for those lots, leading to the anecdotal experiences in this thread.

Of course, to do this accurately we would need to do this at a much finer grain (because lots could be differently sized, different levels of wine, etc). I do this analysis but for a much smaller set of wine (as it is more time consuming) - mainly blue chip Burgundy. My findings are broadly consistent with what I wrote above at the region level but there are divergences when you look deeper

Fair, most of my experiences are looking for aged: California, less expensive burg/bordeaux, beaujolais, CdP because I havent been drinking long enough to have 90s/2000s wines. In these categories, it feels tougher now.

Makes sense. At a broad strokes level, CA wines have boomed this year (up about 20%), less expensive burg and Bordeaux have outperformed their higher priced brethren (2nd tier BDX and BURG outperforming their categories by at least 5%) and Rhone has had a good pop this year (about 8%) vs it’s 5 year avg of 2-3% per year.

All told, “cheaper” wine is up at auction this year and “expensive” wine is downish. This nets to overall modest gains year over year though if you are newer to auction or generally buy cheaper wine it will feel expensive.

[L e e H olland]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

While aggregated Q4 data isn’t out yet (last I checked) auction buying is down in 2020 vs 2019.

Sure, that very well maybe true for the overall auction market. I remember Russ saying they had record traffic on Winebid this summer and had to beef up their servers. Not sure about number of bottles sold or dollars, but I would bet that is up this year as well. There is definitely increased buying competition.

That is not to say that you can't get good wine at descent prices, but it is getting harder.

[Alex Valdes]

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

While aggregated Q4 data isn’t out yet (last I checked) auction buying is down in 2020 vs 2019.

Sure, that very well maybe true for the overall auction market. I remember Russ saying they had record traffic on Winebid this summer and had to beef up their servers. Not sure about number of bottles sold or dollars, but I would bet that is up this year as well. There is definitely increased buying competition.

That is not to say that you can't get good wine at descent prices, but it is getting harder.

I believe Wine Bid represents about 5% of the wine auction market so, while an important player and helpful to understand the internet trend, the larger houses are a better barometer

[Brian G r a f s t r o m]

No. They're just dead at retail.

[T. Williams]

With Winebid I always wonder how many of us (Berserkers) are bidding against each other on any given Sunday night. I think the reality is that even though there are ~6000 wines on Winebid on any given week many of the lots are just noise for what "we" look for. Taking out the prestige bottles and the plonk - price range $30-$130 reduces bottles to ~3000. Further reducing the 3000 to delete current/recent vintages which you can reasonably get at retail whittles it down to 2000 bottles. Subtract the obscure regions, way over the hills bottles, bottles no one should drink (39 different Caymus (or is it Caymi?) bottles this week), and the ocean of wines for the discerning but value minded wine geek gets pretty small. All it takes are two or three of us looking for back vintage cru bojo to really send things sideways on getting a good deal. I think sometimes people misunderstand how big an impact just a few people can have on the entire perception of a marketplace.

Anyway....enough with the supposition and theoretical analysis. I will add to the thread to say that I feel like the pickin's are slim lately too. I have only scored 11 bottles in the past year.

[Alex Valdes]

With Winebid I always wonder how many of us (Berserkers) are bidding against each other on any given Sunday night. I think the reality is that even though there are ~6000 wines on Winebid on any given week many of the lots are just noise for what "we" look for. Taking out the prestige bottles and the plonk - price range $30-$130 reduces bottles to ~3000. Further reducing the 3000 to delete current/recent vintages which you can reasonably get at retail whittles it down to 2000 bottles. Subtract the obscure regions, way over the hills bottles, bottles no one should drink (39 different Caymus (or is it Caymi?) bottles this week), and the ocean of wines for the discerning but value minded wine geek gets pretty small. All it takes are two or three of us looking for back vintage cru bojo to really send things sideways on getting a good deal. I think sometimes people misunderstand how big an impact just a few people can have on the entire perception of a marketplace.

Anyway....enough with the supposition and theoretical analysis. I will add to the thread to say that I feel like the pickin's are slim lately too. I have only scored 11 bottles in the past year.

I wish there was better data out there from places like wine bid and KL. I also wish they gave anonymized bidder data to do the analysis you are interested in.

[Michael Martin]

With Winebid I always wonder how many of us (Berserkers) are bidding against each other on any given Sunday night. I think the reality is that even though there are ~6000 wines on Winebid on any given week many of the lots are just noise for what "we" look for. Taking out the prestige bottles and the plonk - price range $30-$130 reduces bottles to ~3000. Further reducing the 3000 to delete current/recent vintages which you can reasonably get at retail whittles it down to 2000 bottles. Subtract the obscure regions, way over the hills bottles, bottles no one should drink (39 different Caymus (or is it Caymi?) bottles this week), and the ocean of wines for the discerning but value minded wine geek gets pretty small. All it takes are two or three of us looking for back vintage cru bojo to really send things sideways on getting a good deal. I think sometimes people misunderstand how big an impact just a few people can have on the entire perception of a marketplace.

Anyway....enough with the supposition and theoretical analysis. I will add to the thread to say that I feel like the pickin's are slim lately too. I have only scored 11 bottles in the past year.

Yep, the geek wines go quick and have multiple bids. Any board darlings with age i.e. Bedrock, etc, forgetaboutit.

[Ian Dorin]

Total dollars spent.

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Yes agree. Given the data I’ve seen, lots for sale fell 11% and revenue fell 24%. Grant it, this specific dataset is limited to “live auctions” which does not include the weekly auctions that have grown a lot in this period (accounting for 20ish% of 2020 revenues) but still you can glean from the data (as well as bottle price indices) that what I am saying triangulates: prices haven’t moved much due to demand being, at best, flat to 2019.

Where is this data coming from?

We definitely saw prices go up across the board. Maybe we didn't see as many "big ticket" lots as 2019, but I think it's understandable that someone didn't necessarily want to gamble with a 6 figure lot this year.

[Alex Valdes]

But doesn't that also depend on how many lots are put up for auction? Looking at a cost of goods sold doesn't mean much without additional data points.

Yes agree. Given the data I’ve seen, lots for sale fell 11% and revenue fell 24%. Grant it, this specific dataset is limited to “live auctions” which does not include the weekly auctions that have grown a lot in this period (accounting for 20ish% of 2020 revenues) but still you can glean from the data (as well as bottle price indices) that what I am saying triangulates: prices haven’t moved much due to demand being, at best, flat to 2019.

Where is this data coming from?

We definitely saw prices go up across the board. Maybe we didn't see as many "big ticket" lots as 2019, but I think it's understandable that someone didn't necessarily want to gamble with a 6 figure lot this year.

Actually some huge 6 figure lots went this year.

The data comes from the various houses, WMJ, and Live Ex. There is a good quarterly write up on the wine market in the World of Fine Wine. I also personally download data from WMJ and the auction houses after every auction and perform various granular analyses.

[Cris Whetstone]

I don't know about the overall market. It might be down. I don't play in top end Burgundy auctions.

In terms what Victor was talking about at the top I definitely have seen a trend over the last couple years and very sharply this passed year of formerly looked-passed, bargain older school labels going for premiums and ending up in bidding fights. Or labels that were often easy to find at low prices now start at premiums. Jordan Cabernets used to float around for low prices all the time. 20+ yr old examples frequently go for $80+ now.

Cynical me thinks a lot of these will end up back in the market over the next couple years when many of the newer buyers decide they are not as enamored with the older, lower rung wines as many of us are. At least I kind of hope so. This sudden interest is perplexing.

[M. Meer]

Cheap but good.

There are wines, but you might have to dive in parts of the dumpster where I dwell.

[Marc Hauser]

The Covid-effect?

I know I’ve bought more than normal this year.

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

Don't forget 'free' $2000 checks from the Government every 6 months distorting prices as well!

Right.... all those folks who earn less than the $75k income limit to qualify for the second stimulus check were plowing that money into wine at auction rather than, say, rent. Or food.

[Alex Valdes]

I would think that it is a large part of it. Higher consumption and more money being diverted from my traveling budget have increased my purchasing. Traveling vicariously with regional wine, food recipes, and travel documentaries have been our go to pandemic entertainment.

Winebid also seems more aggressive with their marketing on social media in the past year, so that might play a part.

Don't forget 'free' $2000 checks from the Government every 6 months distorting prices as well!

Right.... all those folks who earn less than the $75k income limit to qualify for the second stimulus check were plowing that money into wine at auction rather than, say, rent. Or food.

Hahaha

[Marshall Manning]

With Winebid I always wonder how many of us (Berserkers) are bidding against each other on any given Sunday night. I think the reality is that even though there are ~6000 wines on Winebid on any given week many of the lots are just noise for what "we" look for. Taking out the prestige bottles and the plonk - price range $30-$130 reduces bottles to ~3000. Further reducing the 3000 to delete current/recent vintages which you can reasonably get at retail whittles it down to 2000 bottles. Subtract the obscure regions, way over the hills bottles, bottles no one should drink (39 different Caymus (or is it Caymi?) bottles this week), and the ocean of wines for the discerning but value minded wine geek gets pretty small. All it takes are two or three of us looking for back vintage cru bojo to really send things sideways on getting a good deal. I think sometimes people misunderstand how big an impact just a few people can have on the entire perception of a marketplace.

Anyway....enough with the supposition and theoretical analysis. I will add to the thread to say that I feel like the pickin's are slim lately too. I have only scored 11 bottles in the past year.

A couple of different thoughts here, Tim. First, I've never liked bidding against friends or board members, but most handles aren't as obvious as mine (I'm a Winebid buyer from way back), so I never know who I'm bidding against these days except for a few old friends. I always figure there's no reason to drive up the price for people I know.

Of course if people are looking for "prestige" bottles, I'm probably not bidding against them...with the occasional exception of birth year bottles for people, I usually look for the good values, obscure regions/producers, and "over the hill" (at least that's what they think ) bottles. I don't chase things that get very expensive, and will not overpay compared to retail, as I always factor in commission and an "auction discount" since you know a certain percentage of bottles are going to be corked or not pristine and you have no recourse for those at auction.

And while I think you might be correct about a few people having the ability to drive up pricing on a few select bottles or producers, you have to remember that WB is a very small percentage of the overall wine geek market...maybe 1%? There are a lot more people who use auction (and retail) sites who don't post here or on any wine board, for a myriad of reasons.

[m. ristev]

https://www.klwines.com/Auction/Bidding ... earchRank=

this is pretty insane...

[jordan jacobs]

Except for WB and KL I have been willing avoid the headaches and thrills of auctions and just deal with retail. Between WB , KL and my top 3-5 retailers I have no trouble depleting my wine budget. The exception is when I get an alert of something on my alert list. I no longer have to spend time reviewing catalogs.

If I was still receiving paper catalogs it might be different, they were great (expensive) reading material.

[Alex Valdes]

https://www.klwines.com/Auction/Bidding ... earchRank=

this is pretty insane...

this is a pretty cultish wine - though the current level of this sale puts it way above the $478/bottle (inc bp) it fetched back in Sept at HDH.

[Kirk.Grant]

I used to buy a lot of old Bordeaux from the low-profile producers like Les Ormes de Pez, Lascombes, Prieure-Lichine from the 60's to 80's for $40 - $85 on wined back a few years ago. Prices are much higher now and I rarely find something that I "must have" there like I used to in the past.