The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

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Jeff_M.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#751 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 1:39 pm

Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:19 pm
TW is up
Think we're crashing their site
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#752 Post by T Mikula » June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm

Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:39 pm
Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:19 pm
TW is up
Think we're crashing their site
Ha, yes, its moving verrrryyyy slowly. I got all my wine into my cart before it bogged down, now its just spinning when I click "checkout".
T o m

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#753 Post by Keith Levenberg » June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm

Seeing the notes posted with these, it looks like the chateaux are doing a very good job getting to 14.0X% with their ABVs...

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#754 Post by Curtis Chen » June 23rd, 2020, 1:44 pm

T Mikula wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:39 pm
Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:19 pm
TW is up
Think we're crashing their site
Ha, yes, its moving verrrryyyy slowly. I got all my wine into my cart before it bogged down, now its just spinning when I click "checkout".
Damn, you got that far? neener
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#755 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 1:48 pm

T Mikula wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:39 pm
Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:19 pm
TW is up
Think we're crashing their site
Ha, yes, its moving verrrryyyy slowly. I got all my wine into my cart before it bogged down, now its just spinning when I click "checkout".
Have two browsers open trying to speed this up. Way too slow
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#756 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 23rd, 2020, 1:48 pm

Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Seeing the notes posted with these, it looks like the chateaux are doing a very good job getting to 14.0X% with their ABVs...
Once the wines were Parkerized, then Rollandized, now we are in the era where they are Tariffized.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#757 Post by Demian Saenz » June 23rd, 2020, 1:57 pm

TW order in :
1 Margaux
2 Montrose
2 Figeac
6 L’Eglise Clinet
6 Branaire-Ducru

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#758 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 2:13 pm

Just getting a spinning page. Bummer. Maybe they will eventually take some of my money.
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Sc0tt F!tzger@ld
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#759 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm

Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#760 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 2:16 pm

We pretty much killed their site. HA!

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#761 Post by ChrisStags » June 23rd, 2020, 2:17 pm

What a terrible roll out, and how obvious was it that the site would crash when you have thousands of people trying to buy futures of items that should have been released over a week ago....At least I got what I needed 😂
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#762 Post by Jeff P » June 23rd, 2020, 2:20 pm

My site is still spinning but I got a confirmation email for my first order. Will revisit in a bit to see if I missed anything.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#763 Post by Jeff P » June 23rd, 2020, 2:22 pm

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm
Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?
Looks like most were priced at market, versus those of us that were afraid the week's delay would cause prices to increase to "new market". However, no PLL or VCC as pointed out so maybe they're holding those back?
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#764 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » June 23rd, 2020, 2:23 pm

Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:13 pm
Just getting a spinning page. Bummer. Maybe they will eventually take some of my money.
Try using Chrome. I was trying to browse, and I was getting nowhere with Edge, but with Chrome it was relatively smooth sailing.
Last edited by D@ve D y r 0 f f on June 23rd, 2020, 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#765 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 2:25 pm

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:23 pm
Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:13 pm
Just getting a spinning page. Bummer. Maybe they will eventually take some of my money.
Try using Chrome. I was trying to browse, and I was getting nowhere with Edge, but with Chrome is was relatively smooth sailing.
I use Chrome as my default. I think web traffic crashed the site but its now back up. Still super slow
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#766 Post by Demian Saenz » June 23rd, 2020, 2:28 pm

I finished my order via mobile.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#767 Post by Curtis Chen » June 23rd, 2020, 2:31 pm

Site seems fine now. I was able to order from my phone earlier (the things you do in the bathroom).
Last edited by Curtis Chen on June 23rd, 2020, 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#768 Post by Aleks V » June 23rd, 2020, 2:31 pm

Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:25 pm
D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:23 pm
Jeff_M. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:13 pm
Just getting a spinning page. Bummer. Maybe they will eventually take some of my money.
Try using Chrome. I was trying to browse, and I was getting nowhere with Edge, but with Chrome is was relatively smooth sailing.
I use Chrome as my default. I think web traffic crashed the site but its now back up. Still super slow
I’m completely frozen and lost my shopping cart as I was trying to check out. What a mess!

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#769 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 2:40 pm

Just got a K&L email on their releases. Canon for $104.99

Waiting for my shopping cart to load on TW....and it zeroed my cart again. Ouch
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#770 Post by Br1an Th0rne » June 23rd, 2020, 2:54 pm

Went in for 6 bottles and 6 halves of Clinet. Chrome on my laptop seemed to work fine, safari was a no-go!

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#771 Post by Curtis Chen » June 23rd, 2020, 3:15 pm

Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:22 pm
Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm
Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?
Looks like most were priced at market, versus those of us that were afraid the week's delay would cause prices to increase to "new market". However, no PLL or VCC as pointed out so maybe they're holding those back?
Agree. Didn't see anything that really stood out, so I just bought 375s.

If I was chasing points at 50% down, Pichon Baron is probably the only thing I'd buy, although Lisa's note gives me pause. "Pichon Baron is different this year. Very different. So different, I had to check the bottle. Same label. Different wine. Better wine." Whatever that means.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#772 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 23rd, 2020, 3:16 pm

Picked up mags of Pichon Baron and Montrose...still looking.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#773 Post by Curtis Chen » June 23rd, 2020, 3:18 pm

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:16 pm
Picked up mags of Pichon Baron and Montrose...still looking.
Balla!
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#774 Post by Jeff_M. » June 23rd, 2020, 3:20 pm

Got my order in. Had to use an incognito window to get it to work
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#775 Post by Keith Levenberg » June 23rd, 2020, 3:20 pm

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm
Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?
Subject to the usual caveats that anyone who can predict that sort of thing should be buying stocks instead of wine, Leoville Las Cases and to a slightly lesser extent Pichon-Baron are priced a meaningful amount below recent off-the-shelf prices. The lowest off-the-shelf I saw 2016 LLC was $225, most were around $250, so $190 now is pretty good, in fact I think that's less than the 2000 was when it hit the shelf. My cost on 2016 Baron off the shelf was $150, so $130 now is also pretty good. Also 2016 Ducru was generally around $185 though I bought some <$170 when they went on sale at HDH. Either way, $160 for the 2019 isn't that bad.

The 2016s are good for perspective. It's exciting to see a futures campaign worth paying attention to again, but it's not like they cut prices so much it's worth crashing a web site over.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#776 Post by Vince T » June 23rd, 2020, 3:28 pm

Lee Barnard wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 9:30 am
C Chen wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 9:09 am
Oddly, I'm considering buying some second wines, like La Chapelle HB or Reserve Lalande. Typically not a buyer and would spend on other producers instead, but the prices aren't bad and they could make for interesting defenders. Anyone else?

Could also be boredom from looking at the same listings over and over [wow.gif]
I have the same thought every year, but then every time I taste a second wine I'm glad I didn't fall into that trap. Prices still seem high for the quality. Not that I've tasted any 2019, but I guess I'd like most of Langoa-Barton, Cantemerle, Sociando, Malartic-Lagraviere, Gloria, etc. more for the same price or less than Reserve Lalande. The second wines aren't hard to find on the shelf and I find the quality so inconsistent that you need to taste.
For what it's worth, the 2016 second wines of Montrose and Calon Segur are both excellent. I didn't buy them EP but bought after I tasted them when they first came out. They're about the same price as Gloria and Cantemerle respectively (which I did buy EP), but more ready to drink now. The Gloria especially was pretty shut down. Not sure I'd save the Marquis de Calon for more than a decade, but I think Dame de Montrose will easily age as well as any "lesser" St Estephe.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#777 Post by DanielP » June 23rd, 2020, 3:33 pm

Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:20 pm
Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm
Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?
Subject to the usual caveats that anyone who can predict that sort of thing should be buying stocks instead of wine, Leoville Las Cases and to a slightly lesser extent Pichon-Baron are priced a meaningful amount below recent off-the-shelf prices. The lowest off-the-shelf I saw 2016 LLC was $225, most were around $250, so $190 now is pretty good, in fact I think that's less than the 2000 was when it hit the shelf. My cost on 2016 Baron off the shelf was $150, so $130 now is also pretty good. Also 2016 Ducru was generally around $185 though I bought some <$170 when they went on sale at HDH. Either way, $160 for the 2019 isn't that bad.

The 2016s are good for perspective. It's exciting to see a futures campaign worth paying attention to again, but it's not like they cut prices so much it's worth crashing a web site over.
Palmer is probably as good as it gets if your criteria is the discount against on-the shelf vintages. If I were playing in that ~200 range, I think Palmer would be my pick.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#778 Post by Neal.Mollen » June 23rd, 2020, 3:34 pm

It's nice to see sub-$80 Leo Barton.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#779 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » June 23rd, 2020, 3:40 pm

Is my past history just misleading me, or is something odd going on with 3L bottles this year? I'm not a big-bottle balla by any stretch, but recently I've enjoyed picking up a 3L or two of something like Cantemerle or Sociando for some big future dinner. Doesn't break the bank, fun, suitable for the whole family, etc. When I did this in recent vintages, the 3L surcharge (beyond just 4x the 750 price) was about $10 per 3L bottle, which would come out to $30 a case (not that I bought more than one).

This year, looking around, I don't see as many places offering them and the ones that do seem to be charging $40 to $50 per 3L, or $120-$150 per case, as a 3L surcharge (at least places that are offering 3L bottles individually and not as a case-only purchase).

Am I missing something? Is something going on? Anyone know what? I'd like a nice $130 3L of 2019 Sociando, on top of my 750s, but I'll pass at $160.

Edited to add - I just looked at Winex's e-mail from today. If you buy a whole case of something, the bottling surcharge is $30 per case for halves, $20 per case for mags, and $120 per case for 3Ls. So even for folks buying in case quantities, there is something this year about 3Ls. WTH? Are there only two bottling companies that make 3L bottles and one of them burned to the ground or something?
Last edited by D@ve D y r 0 f f on June 23rd, 2020, 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#780 Post by RichardFlack » June 23rd, 2020, 3:42 pm

Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:48 pm
Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Seeing the notes posted with these, it looks like the chateaux are doing a very good job getting to 14.0X% with their ABVs...
Once the wines were Parkerized, then Rollandized, now we are in the era where they are Tariffized.
Trumped?

Sorry....

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#781 Post by RichardFlack » June 23rd, 2020, 3:45 pm

I saw an Ontario list from the KGBO the other day, and it was a bit of a trip down memory lane. Lynch Bages under $100 (just) etc. Why did this have to happen when I’m really too old To be buying Bordeaux?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#782 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 23rd, 2020, 4:08 pm

Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:20 pm
Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 2:15 pm
Putting aside the risk of tariffs, any perspective on the ‘good deals’ at the higher end that TW just released?
Subject to the usual caveats that anyone who can predict that sort of thing should be buying stocks instead of wine, Leoville Las Cases and to a slightly lesser extent Pichon-Baron are priced a meaningful amount below recent off-the-shelf prices. The lowest off-the-shelf I saw 2016 LLC was $225, most were around $250, so $190 now is pretty good, in fact I think that's less than the 2000 was when it hit the shelf. My cost on 2016 Baron off the shelf was $150, so $130 now is also pretty good. Also 2016 Ducru was generally around $185 though I bought some <$170 when they went on sale at HDH. Either way, $160 for the 2019 isn't that bad.

The 2016s are good for perspective. It's exciting to see a futures campaign worth paying attention to again, but it's not like they cut prices so much it's worth crashing a web site over.
Thanks Keith, appreciate your input (and a big fan of your notes, BTW!). I just went back and picked up a mag of LLC, after buying the PB and Montrose earlier. I think my last purchase will be the PLL when it's released.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#783 Post by John Flanagan » June 23rd, 2020, 4:16 pm

PSA: Wine Exchange has Pontet Canet for $79.25.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#784 Post by Andrew K. » June 23rd, 2020, 4:18 pm

Andrew K. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 10:39 am
I stopped at 4 6x75 cases
Well, I lied. Got another offer, so picked up 2 more cases. But that's it! I swear! neener
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#785 Post by Ethan Abraham » June 23rd, 2020, 4:19 pm

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:40 pm
Is my past history just misleading me, or is something odd going on with 3L bottles this year? I'm not a big-bottle balla by any stretch, but recently I've enjoyed picking up a 3L or two of something like Cantemerle or Sociando for some big future dinner. Doesn't break the bank, fun, suitable for the whole family, etc. When I did this in recent vintages, the 3L surcharge (beyond just 4x the 750 price) was about $10 per 3L bottle, which would come out to $30 a case (not that I bought more than one).

This year, looking around, I don't see as many places offering them and the ones that do seem to be charging $40 to $50 per 3L, or $120-$150 per case, as a 3L surcharge (at least places that are offering 3L bottles individually and not as a case-only purchase).

Am I missing something? Is something going on? Anyone know what? I'd like a nice $130 3L of 2019 Sociando, on top of my 750s, but I'll pass at $160.

Edited to add - I just looked at Winex's e-mail from today. If you buy a whole case of something, the bottling surcharge is $30 per case for halves, $20 per case for mags, and $120 per case for 3Ls. So even for folks buying in case quantities, there is something this year about 3Ls. WTH? Are there only two bottling companies that make 3L bottles and one of them burned to the ground or something?
Tariffs don't apply to 3L bottles.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#786 Post by Andrew K. » June 23rd, 2020, 4:21 pm

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:40 pm
So even for folks buying in case quantities, there is something this year about 3Ls. WTH? Are there only two bottling companies that make 3L bottles and one of them burned to the ground or something?
I didn't buy any 3L, but my offers in the UK had a very small surcharge, if any.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#787 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » June 23rd, 2020, 4:21 pm

Ethan Abraham wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 4:19 pm
D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:40 pm
Is my past history just misleading me, or is something odd going on with 3L bottles this year? I'm not a big-bottle balla by any stretch, but recently I've enjoyed picking up a 3L or two of something like Cantemerle or Sociando for some big future dinner. Doesn't break the bank, fun, suitable for the whole family, etc. When I did this in recent vintages, the 3L surcharge (beyond just 4x the 750 price) was about $10 per 3L bottle, which would come out to $30 a case (not that I bought more than one).

This year, looking around, I don't see as many places offering them and the ones that do seem to be charging $40 to $50 per 3L, or $120-$150 per case, as a 3L surcharge (at least places that are offering 3L bottles individually and not as a case-only purchase).

Am I missing something? Is something going on? Anyone know what? I'd like a nice $130 3L of 2019 Sociando, on top of my 750s, but I'll pass at $160.

Edited to add - I just looked at Winex's e-mail from today. If you buy a whole case of something, the bottling surcharge is $30 per case for halves, $20 per case for mags, and $120 per case for 3Ls. So even for folks buying in case quantities, there is something this year about 3Ls. WTH? Are there only two bottling companies that make 3L bottles and one of them burned to the ground or something?
Tariffs don't apply to 3L bottles.
That is a great point, but since the places I'm looking also exclude the tariff from the 750ml price, that shouldn't make the difference in this case. (Edited to add - And, if the merchant is including the current 25% tariff in the 750ml price, then the 3L should be cheaper on a per liter basis than the 750s, right?
Last edited by D@ve D y r 0 f f on June 23rd, 2020, 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#788 Post by Curtis Chen » June 23rd, 2020, 4:22 pm

John Flanagan wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 4:16 pm
PSA: Wine Exchange has Pontet Canet for $79.25.
Keep in mind, Wine Exchange does final sales. If tariffs are imposed, you'll pay. If you cancel your pre-arrivals, they'll charge a fee.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#789 Post by A Willi@mson » June 23rd, 2020, 4:24 pm

Almost all UK merchants charged an £80/9L surcharge for 3x3L. On a per litre basis the surcharge is higher per 3L than per 6L. So just have your future bottled as 6L and problem solved. It was this that made have have more 6Ls filled than 3Ls in 2019

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#790 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 23rd, 2020, 4:30 pm

RichardFlack wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 3:42 pm
Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:48 pm
Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Seeing the notes posted with these, it looks like the chateaux are doing a very good job getting to 14.0X% with their ABVs...
Once the wines were Parkerized, then Rollandized, now we are in the era where they are Tariffized.
Trumped?

Sorry....

Haha, many have been heavily trumpeted and trumped up before the era of yuuuge trumping!

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#791 Post by Mattstolz » June 23rd, 2020, 7:33 pm

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 8:59 am


Tariffs cannot be locked in or hedged, because they are charged at the time of importation. You can't agree with anyone in the supply chain that the tariffs will be X or that today's tariff will apply, at least not in any way that is binding on the government.
yeah I think this just depends on who's looking at it. personally, until this year with new contracts coming out that say otherwise, I would have assumed in the past that you are entering into an agreement with a retailer to supply the wine at the purchase price agreed upon, regardless of what it costs them to get it here once said agreement is made. if I bought a car that had to be shipped to the retailer and we agreed on a price to ship the car to the dealership, but it ended up costing them more to get it there... thats very sad for them but we have a contract already. Total certainly isn't gonna give us a break if they end up paying LESS taxes than they expected on it because of the same reasoning.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#792 Post by Mattstolz » June 23rd, 2020, 7:36 pm

Keith Levenberg wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:43 pm
Seeing the notes posted with these, it looks like the chateaux are doing a very good job getting to 14.0X% with their ABVs...
I liked LLC: 14.02%ABV ha!

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#793 Post by Mattstolz » June 23rd, 2020, 7:55 pm

Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:34 pm
Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:27 pm
Jeff P wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 1:19 pm
TW is up
No Canon or PLL.
I think Canon will be tomorrow since they are usually a day after releases. However, weird on PLL
when I emailed TW concierge they kinda sounded like they had no idea when Canon was gonna drop. They DID know PLL would be tomorrow though. which makes me wonder if they know thats dropping tomorrow why they wouldn't also know about Canon.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#794 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » June 23rd, 2020, 8:54 pm

Mattstolz wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 7:33 pm
D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 8:59 am


Tariffs cannot be locked in or hedged, because they are charged at the time of importation. You can't agree with anyone in the supply chain that the tariffs will be X or that today's tariff will apply, at least not in any way that is binding on the government.
yeah I think this just depends on who's looking at it. personally, until this year with new contracts coming out that say otherwise, I would have assumed in the past that you are entering into an agreement with a retailer to supply the wine at the purchase price agreed upon, regardless of what it costs them to get it here once said agreement is made. if I bought a car that had to be shipped to the retailer and we agreed on a price to ship the car to the dealership, but it ended up costing them more to get it there... thats very sad for them but we have a contract already. Total certainly isn't gonna give us a break if they end up paying LESS taxes than they expected on it because of the same reasoning.
We are talking about two different concepts here. Your statement that it depends on who's looking at it because you didn't see any increase in price on futures you bought two years ago, which were delivered this year, refers to risk allocation. You didn't see the risk because you didn't have to cough up any extra money, but the retailer and the importer did see the risk, because one or both of them did have to cough up extra money. So, as you say, it depends on who's looking at it.

But my statement that tariffs cannot be locked in or hedged does not refer to risk allocation. It refers to risk elimination. Risks that have been eliminated need not be allocated, because they don't exist, and this does NOT depend on who's looking at it, because there is no risk to look different to the consumer than it does to the retailer or importer.

Whether the amount of the tariff can be locked in or hedged (like the currency exchange rate can) most certainly does not depend on who's looking at it. It simply cannot be eliminated or hedged, no matter who is looking at it, period. You may not see it as the consumer if the retailer fails to allocate it to you, but that doesn't mean it was eliminated. Somebody bore that risk and there was no way to structure the futures transaction to hedge that risk away or lock in the amount of the tariff.

This is in marked contrast to many other risks, such as exchange rates. Unlike tariffs, you can structure a futures transaction in a way that the exchange rate is fixed/locked in, and thus there is no risk to ANY of the parties from future changes in the rate. And because there is no risk, there is no risk to allocate among the parties. If you pay the retailer today's dollar-value price in dollars, and he pays the importer today's price in dollars, and the importer converts his dollars to Euros at today's exchange rate and pays the courtier in Euros, and the courtier pays the Chateau, and everyone agrees that they've been paid in full and are obligated to deliver the wine, then that is it. Whatever happens in future currency exchange rates, nobody in the supply chain for this wine will ever have to pay more or receive less money than they already paid/received (nor will anyone get a windfall if the exchange rate changes in the other direction). There is no need to allocate the risk of currency fluctuations among the parties, because there is no such risk. It has been eliminated, no matter who's looking at it, because all the money has already changed hands at today's exchange rates. Nobody, for example, is forced to sell the wine downstream today at today's exchange rates but pay for the wine upstream in 2022 at 2022's exchange rates. Everyone can buy and sell at today's rate, even though delivery is delayed. Moreover, even if someone is allowed to pay later they can hedge by buying or selling currency or futures to eliminate the risk, so that the Euros they will use to pay for the wine in 2022 were purchased with dollars today at today's rates.

Tariff risk CANNOT be locked in, which was my point. This is because no matter what the parties do to structure the transaction today, the agreement is not binding on the government and the government charges tariffs based on the tariff rate at the time of importation in 2022, not based on the tariff rate at the time of purchase and sale in 2020. Everyone is buying and selling at today's prices, but the importer is forced - has no choice - to pay the 2022 tariff in 2022 when the wines hit our shores. There in no way to know in 2020 what the 2022 tariff will be and there is no deal structure or hedge that can lock in the 2020 tariff rate on those wines. No matter how the parties structure the transaction, if the tariff is higher at import time than it is now, SOMEONE is going to have to pay more than they would have had importation been instantaneous. (And likewise if today's price assumes 2020 tariffs and the 2022 tariff is LOWER, then someone is going to pay LESS than they thought). This risk cannot be eliminated, it can only be allocated among the parties (in fact it MUST be allocated among the parties). If the retailer takes all the risk, as we all assume they did before this year because they failed to include a tariff clause in their terms and conditions, then the end consumer won't see an increase in price, but the fact that who sees the risk "depends on who's looking at it" does not mean that the tariff was locked in to the contract or that the risk was eliminated by the deal structure - it just means that the retailer bore all the risk. With today's clauses, the inability to lock in the tariff and eliminate the risk is the same, but now all the retailers' terms seem to allocate the risk to the consumer.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#795 Post by Chris Crutchfield » June 23rd, 2020, 10:31 pm

I spent some time this evening messing around with the critics' scores for 2019 Bordeaux to produce a rough scatterplot of scores versus price. Standard caveats apply about the usefulness of this sort of analysis, but perhaps it can help some people make some decisions.

Image

Methodology:

Scores were sourced from the wonderful table at Liv-Ex. Scores were then loaded into a spreadsheet and cleaned up. For critics that express their scores as ranges, a scalar value was produced by averaging the bounds of the ranges. For critics that include a "+" in their score (e.g. "94-96+"), the value is imputed as the midpoint between that value and the next value in the scoring rubric. For example, for the "94-96+" example earlier, "96+" is converted to 96.5 and then averaged with 94 to produce 95.25. The score "17.5+" is converted to 17.75. This is not a particularly exact science, but it at least attempts to incorporate these additional features that are included in the critics' scores.

Each critic score for a wine is then normalized by z-score across their scores. Each normalized critic score for a wine is then averaged across all critics (after throwing away the bottom and top quartiles) to produce a final, normalized, aggregated score for each wine.

Price data was pulled from Total Wine and is expressed in US Dollars. Obviously, TW does not have everything so there are some gaps in the data. I also manually entered these in by hand so I may have made some mistakes here and there.

Interpreting the graph:

As we are likely all familiar with, quality is generally not a linear function of price. To reflect this, I plotted the price on a log scale.

So what are the "best values" from this vintage? Well, there is not really a good metric to determine that, but one approach you could take is to roughly look at the convex hull produced by the points in this plot. The vertices of the hull are probably going to be a better QPR than other wines at a similar price point. For this chart, it appears (just eyeballing it) that these are: Gloria, Malescot St. Exupery, Montrose, Ducru Beaucaillou, Figeac, Palmer, l'Eglise Clinet, and Margaux. Honorable mentions are: Leoville Poyferre, Haut-Bailly, Pichon Baron, and Mouton Rothschild. Perhaps these selections are rather obvious to some here more experienced than I, but I found this interesting!

Anyway, happy to share the Google Sheet I used to generate this if others would like to play around with it. Just let me know if anybody is interested and I'll post it here.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#796 Post by JonathanG » June 23rd, 2020, 10:40 pm

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 8:54 pm
With today's clauses, the inability to lock in the tariff and eliminate the risk is the same, but now all the retailers' terms seem to allocate the risk to the consumer.
I posted way back in this thread a comparison of a few T&C's. I bought all my futures from Millesima, who did not change their T&Cs to charge tariffs, and who will store the wine in France for free until the tariff goes away (optimistic on their part, I'd say), and from wine.com, who also didnt change T&C and who, although they didn't explitly say it, will likely be doing the same as Millesima. Compared to K&L who said they will charge.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#797 Post by DanielP » June 23rd, 2020, 10:41 pm

Chris Crutchfield wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 10:31 pm
I spent some time this evening messing around with the critics' scores for 2019 Bordeaux to produce a rough scatterplot of scores versus price. Standard caveats apply about the usefulness of this sort of analysis, but perhaps it can help some people make some decisions.

There is so much heterogeneity in which critics were able to score wines. Could you do a paired analysis for individual critics and calculate an average z-score from that? I'm very demanding, I know [cheers.gif]
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#798 Post by Chris Crutchfield » June 24th, 2020, 12:05 am

DanielP wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 10:41 pm
Chris Crutchfield wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 10:31 pm
I spent some time this evening messing around with the critics' scores for 2019 Bordeaux to produce a rough scatterplot of scores versus price. Standard caveats apply about the usefulness of this sort of analysis, but perhaps it can help some people make some decisions.

There is so much heterogeneity in which critics were able to score wines. Could you do a paired analysis for individual critics and calculate an average z-score from that? I'm very demanding, I know [cheers.gif]
Yeah, I thought the selection bias might affect the results a bit. However, I didn't want to do anything too complicated to start. I think if I had a bit more time I would try to do more of a collaborative filtering approach instead of the rather simplistic z-score stuff.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#799 Post by Curtis Chen » June 24th, 2020, 12:51 am

JonathanG wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 10:40 pm
D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 8:54 pm
With today's clauses, the inability to lock in the tariff and eliminate the risk is the same, but now all the retailers' terms seem to allocate the risk to the consumer.
I posted way back in this thread a comparison of a few T&C's. I bought all my futures from Millesima, who did not change their T&Cs to charge tariffs, and who will store the wine in France for free until the tariff goes away (optimistic on their part, I'd say), and from wine.com, who also didnt change T&C and who, although they didn't explitly say it, will likely be doing the same as Millesima. Compared to K&L who said they will charge.
I don’t know if that’s entirely true. Millesima doesn’t sound like a free lunch. Direct text from Millesima:

“ Our current prices are shown before taxes and tariffs. Any Futures and Pre-Arrival orders may be subject to the collection of additional tariffs. Additional tariffs will be based on the date of importation. We will offer free storage in our professional wine cellar in Bordeaux in the event of any importation delays.”

Meanwhile, here’s the direct text from K&L:

PLEASE NOTE: 2019 Bordeaux Futures are being offered without any added tariffs. If there are applicable tariffs at the time the wines are imported in 2022, we will contact you with the option to pay tariffs to have the wine delivered, or cancel the order with no penalty.

I’d say K&L is offering a more than friendly approach, especially when some retailers are doing final sale before we know the final tariff costs (if any).
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#800 Post by Mattstolz » June 24th, 2020, 3:32 am

D@ve D y r 0 f f wrote:
June 23rd, 2020, 8:54 pm


We are talking about two different concepts here. Your statement that it depends on who's looking at it because you didn't see any increase in price on futures you bought two years ago, which were delivered this year, refers to risk allocation. You didn't see the risk because you didn't have to cough up any extra money, but the retailer and the importer did see the risk, because one or both of them did have to cough up extra money. So, as you say, it depends on who's looking at it.

But my statement that tariffs cannot be locked in or hedged does not refer to risk allocation. It refers to risk elimination. Risks that have been eliminated need not be allocated, because they don't exist, and this does NOT depend on who's looking at it, because there is no risk to look different to the consumer than it does to the retailer or importer.

Whether the amount of the tariff can be locked in or hedged (like the currency exchange rate can) most certainly does not depend on who's looking at it. It simply cannot be eliminated or hedged, no matter who is looking at it, period. You may not see it as the consumer if the retailer fails to allocate it to you, but that doesn't mean it was eliminated. Somebody bore that risk and there was no way to structure the futures transaction to hedge that risk away or lock in the amount of the tariff.

This is in marked contrast to many other risks, such as exchange rates. Unlike tariffs, you can structure a futures transaction in a way that the exchange rate is fixed/locked in, and thus there is no risk to ANY of the parties from future changes in the rate. And because there is no risk, there is no risk to allocate among the parties. If you pay the retailer today's dollar-value price in dollars, and he pays the importer today's price in dollars, and the importer converts his dollars to Euros at today's exchange rate and pays the courtier in Euros, and the courtier pays the Chateau, and everyone agrees that they've been paid in full and are obligated to deliver the wine, then that is it. Whatever happens in future currency exchange rates, nobody in the supply chain for this wine will ever have to pay more or receive less money than they already paid/received (nor will anyone get a windfall if the exchange rate changes in the other direction). There is no need to allocate the risk of currency fluctuations among the parties, because there is no such risk. It has been eliminated, no matter who's looking at it, because all the money has already changed hands at today's exchange rates. Nobody, for example, is forced to sell the wine downstream today at today's exchange rates but pay for the wine upstream in 2022 at 2022's exchange rates. Everyone can buy and sell at today's rate, even though delivery is delayed. Moreover, even if someone is allowed to pay later they can hedge by buying or selling currency or futures to eliminate the risk, so that the Euros they will use to pay for the wine in 2022 were purchased with dollars today at today's rates.

Tariff risk CANNOT be locked in, which was my point. This is because no matter what the parties do to structure the transaction today, the agreement is not binding on the government and the government charges tariffs based on the tariff rate at the time of importation in 2022, not based on the tariff rate at the time of purchase and sale in 2020. Everyone is buying and selling at today's prices, but the importer is forced - has no choice - to pay the 2022 tariff in 2022 when the wines hit our shores. There in no way to know in 2020 what the 2022 tariff will be and there is no deal structure or hedge that can lock in the 2020 tariff rate on those wines. No matter how the parties structure the transaction, if the tariff is higher at import time than it is now, SOMEONE is going to have to pay more than they would have had importation been instantaneous. (And likewise if today's price assumes 2020 tariffs and the 2022 tariff is LOWER, then someone is going to pay LESS than they thought). This risk cannot be eliminated, it can only be allocated among the parties (in fact it MUST be allocated among the parties). If the retailer takes all the risk, as we all assume they did before this year because they failed to include a tariff clause in their terms and conditions, then the end consumer won't see an increase in price, but the fact that who sees the risk "depends on who's looking at it" does not mean that the tariff was locked in to the contract or that the risk was eliminated by the deal structure - it just means that the retailer bore all the risk. With today's clauses, the inability to lock in the tariff and eliminate the risk is the same, but now all the retailers' terms seem to allocate the risk to the consumer.
ah I get you. I still think as a buyer, prior to last year, you were hedging against a possible tariff by buying the 2017s, and the retailer was taking that risk, because as a buyer I had locked in MY price. this year its a totally different ballgame because the opposite has happened where retailers have contingencies in the contracts in case of possible tariffs. I see where you're coming from, I think we're just saying it slightly differently maybe. haha. (for the record, my 2017 futures were with Total, so they DID try to pass that risk off on me, and I cancelled them because I disagreed with that based on my same thinking. the contract at that point didn't say anything about it so I thought that should have been on them at that time)

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