The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

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Neal.Mollen
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#951 Post by Neal.Mollen » July 15th, 2020, 1:03 pm

Curtis Chen wrote:
July 14th, 2020, 2:03 pm
To my surprise, K&L just offered an OWC of Cantemerle halves for $168. Had to grab it.

One remaining: https://klwines.com/p/i?i=1488362&searc ... rchRank=23
Sold out. On waiting list. (BTW, this is a 12 bottle case, not the usual 24 bottle .375 case)
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#952 Post by Vince T » July 15th, 2020, 1:40 pm

Brent S wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:00 pm
So, how screwed are we if the government's newly proposed 100% tariffs are in place in 2 years when these wines land. These "it's $100 but it was $120 for the 2018 vintage" wines will turn into $200 wines and we will be kicking ourselves. Hopefully not......
Relatively few wines were under 14% alcohol in 2019, so I think the overall level of screwage is moderate.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#953 Post by David Glasser » July 15th, 2020, 2:22 pm

Vince T wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:40 pm
Brent S wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:00 pm
So, how screwed are we if the government's newly proposed 100% tariffs are in place in 2 years when these wines land. These "it's $100 but it was $120 for the 2018 vintage" wines will turn into $200 wines and we will be kicking ourselves. Hopefully not......
Relatively few wines were under 14% alcohol in 2019, so I think the overall level of screwage is moderate.
I thought wine was not currently on the list for the 100% tariffs? Even if it isn’t, that could change between now and when the wines enter the US. As could the 14% ABV limit or any of the other parameters. As could the importers' decisions on when to bring the wines in.

If there are significant tariffs at the time of importation affecting the wines you bought, how screwed you are depends on the fine print in your futures purchase contract. Does it allow you to back out? Under what conditions? Is there a cost for canceling the order? Are you obligated to take delivery and pay the tariffs? All or part of them?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#954 Post by Brent S » July 15th, 2020, 3:06 pm

I can see them getting rid of the 14% and taxing everything. Let’s hope the political landscape is different in 2 years.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#955 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » July 16th, 2020, 4:17 pm

Re the current tariff situation, please see the linked post (and the rest of the recent posts in that thread), and please submit a comment to the USTR. The short answer is that the tariff on the 2019 Bdx could be anywhere from 0 to 100% by the time they are imported, both for the wines under 14% and for those over 14%. We are fighting on multiple fronts and we have to keep it up. We need to submit comments now. We will need to submit them again six months from now, and so on.

Let's keep up the fight! [berserker.gif]

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#956 Post by Paul @bbott » July 18th, 2020, 1:30 pm

Over in the UK, The Wine Society has just launched its EP offer, I will be buying most of my 2019s from them and will have the fun that everyone else has being enjoying for the last few weeks.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#957 Post by Curtis Chen » July 19th, 2020, 12:46 pm

Paul @bbott wrote:
July 18th, 2020, 1:30 pm
Over in the UK, The Wine Society has just launched its EP offer, I will be buying most of my 2019s from them and will have the fun that everyone else has being enjoying for the last few weeks.
Whatcha buying?
Add me on CellarTracker: C Chen

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#958 Post by JulianD » July 20th, 2020, 9:34 am

I find the disconnect from 18 —> 19 in terms of pricing fascinating. Since the 18s haven’t been released yet, it seems like many of the factors that contributed to the discount applied to the 19 vintage ‘should’ apply to the 18. But, the 18 EP having already concluded with pricing released a long time ago, I wonder if chateaus will continue to keep the prices high due to sticky pricing/not wanting to ‘screw over’ early buyers. Could end up with a lot of 18 on the shelves while everyone buys up the 19.
Last edited by JulianD on July 20th, 2020, 11:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#959 Post by Paul @bbott » July 20th, 2020, 10:07 am

I have been comparing critic scores to prices, Batailley, Phelan Ségur, Ferrière, Meyney and Les Ormes de Pez all come out well in the pounds per point analysis. Probably get 6 of each, plus some Cantemerle and Beaumont in375s while I wait for them to mature.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#960 Post by Mark Golodetz » July 20th, 2020, 10:51 am

JulianD wrote:
July 20th, 2020, 9:34 am
I find the disconnect from 18 —> 19 in terms of pricing fascinating. Since the 18s haven’t been released yet, it seems like many of the factors that contributed to the discount applied to the 19 vintage ‘should’ apply to the 18. But, the 18 EP having already conclude with pricing released a long time ago, I wonder if chateaus will continue to keep the prices high due to sticky pricing/not wanting to ‘screw over’ early buyers. Wonder if we end up with a lot of 18 on the shelves while everyone buys up the 19.
That would be my guess.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#961 Post by HenryB » July 20th, 2020, 1:25 pm

From what I've seen, it feels like a great vintage to buy Pauillac and Pomerol - I think it;'s a bit of a miss if you can get something like Clinet at original price and pass it up.


i havent fully considered 18 vs 19, but i think the problem you might find is that 19 has largely been snapped up - a lot of the in demand wines are sold out and will probably be until release, minimum. I wouldnt be surprised if 18 pricing comes down just a little bit, but more than anything I'd expect 19 to regress to the norm, rather than this represent a new level.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#962 Post by JonathanG » July 20th, 2020, 10:39 pm

I think you are right. I think the 2018's will prob come down a bit, but if the world gets back to normal by 2022, those that bought in EP will prob be pretty pleased with their pricing.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#963 Post by HenryB » July 20th, 2020, 11:24 pm

Yeah - when you have at least four or five vintages tradinig at the pre-2019 pricing norm, one vintage isn't going to dilute that enough tbh!

I do hope it does drive down some of the EP pricing longer term as we've had a few vintages of non-sell-out EPs, but I'd defer to an expert's insight on this rather than my own. I think overall in bottle pricing will stay fairly similar, but it does demonstrate the 'level' of potential trade Chateaus could do if they were more generous with their prices EP. And moving to something like a Palmer model where 50% EP 50% when ready is a good way to balance the pay off and customer loyalty?

I saw a post from a UK merchant recently that suggested the La Tour 'at prime' releases typically were not profitable (for the private buyer, you can pick it up on secondary a little less (5% or so)), so that'll be an interesting balance going forwards too


I'd be interested to see some informed opinions on this, but for me personally, Covid was almost a sort of excuse for these guys to reduce their EP pricing - even 18 being as good an alleged vintage as it was, 17 being overpriced for the quality for most parts - I think they were looking for an excuse to try to drive their price down.

I've got no problem buying EP, and did a substantial lot of purchasing this year, but barely bought anything (volume wise) last year because it didnt feel like a sensible price vs history. Same is true for 17, I think I bought maybe 12 or 18 bottles of wine in 2017 EP. As opposed to over 100 this year.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#964 Post by Nicholas C » August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am

Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature.

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#965 Post by Sh@n A » August 1st, 2020, 10:42 am

Nicholas, what do you do with so many 3Ls? Just curious. I have debated going in for more 3Ls, but then convince myself mags are OK!
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#966 Post by Paul @bbott » August 1st, 2020, 1:22 pm

Nicholas, are there places near you where you can easily get those wines later? Or do you want them in anything other then standard bottle size? I like 375s and find it easier to find them now, so I stock up.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#967 Post by JonathanG » August 1st, 2020, 3:47 pm

Nicholas C wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am
Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature.

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?
I voted with my wallet and bought several for midweek drinking, both in 375ml and 750ml. I only bought a handful of mags this year, I overdid the large format ordering last year...
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#968 Post by HenryB » August 2nd, 2020, 10:45 am

Nicholas C wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am
Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?
I'd suggest mos of the wines you've identified will be readily available post-EP at near, or at, the release price. I think it's well worth getting LMHB, Canon, Pontet, Mouton as a non-exhaustive list, but its important to separate out whats worth buying now vs readily available down the line - depending pn which tranche of pricing you got on those wines.


My normal EP purchases are a couple of 'investable' wines, and a few drinking ones - this year I pivoted to almost exclusively investment spec wines.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#969 Post by Nicholas C » August 5th, 2020, 9:06 pm

Sh@n A wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:42 am
Nicholas, what do you do with so many 3Ls? Just curious. I have debated going in for more 3Ls, but then convince myself mags are OK!
I have quite a large extended family so mainly open at those gatherings. Mags I find are good for a crowd of 2-4, but any larger and I find there isn't enough to go around and see how the wine develops over time.

I also try to buy en primeur in different formats as its always easy to find the 750s in the future

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#970 Post by Nicholas C » August 5th, 2020, 9:14 pm

Paul @bbott wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 1:22 pm
Nicholas, are there places near you where you can easily get those wines later? Or do you want them in anything other then standard bottle size? I like 375s and find it easier to find them now, so I stock up.
Paul, I could prob find them at the usual online larger retailers I expect, and they may show up at Costco if im lucky. Regarding the format I prob just want them in 750mls. Although tempted by mags but that defeats the purpose of having bottles for weekday drinkers.

Do we think the lesser growths etc and level of wines I mentioned (e.g. Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque) for this vintage will move much in price over next few years?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#971 Post by Paul @bbott » August 5th, 2020, 10:27 pm

Nicolas, if you look at Livex they graph price movements over time. Some wines prices are related to quality, others such as Cantemerle to age and tick up at around 10 years. I assume this is a reflection on the fact that it is being drunk tastes good and people want to backfill. So to answer your question, you could have a few years to fill in the gaps. Personally I just love the buzz around the new vintage and would rather have the selection now. I also keep an eye on the in bottle reviews and use it as an excuse to buy some more. I put my order in yesterday, 36 bottles and 36 375s, all in the solid quality but good value range. I buy Cantemerle and Langoa most years as I like the style. This year I went for a selection of st Estèphe cru Bourgeois and some Ferrière which was rarely tasted but well rated by those who did. Could be a dark horse.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#972 Post by Nicholas C » August 6th, 2020, 10:41 am

Paul @bbott wrote:
August 5th, 2020, 10:27 pm
Nicolas, if you look at Livex they graph price movements over time. Some wines prices are related to quality, others such as Cantemerle to age and tick up at around 10 years. I assume this is a reflection on the fact that it is being drunk tastes good and people want to backfill. So to answer your question, you could have a few years to fill in the gaps. Personally I just love the buzz around the new vintage and would rather have the selection now. I also keep an eye on the in bottle reviews and use it as an excuse to buy some more. I put my order in yesterday, 36 bottles and 36 375s, all in the solid quality but good value range. I buy Cantemerle and Langoa most years as I like the style. This year I went for a selection of st Estèphe cru Bourgeois and some Ferrière which was rarely tasted but well rated by those who did. Could be a dark horse.
Paul - How do you see the pricing graph. Back around 11 years ago I had a personal consumer level Livex account, but I just checked and I can only seem to see commercial accounts that start at $260 per month? Has their business model evolved?

Will check out Ferrière! Thanks

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#973 Post by Paul @bbott » August 6th, 2020, 10:15 pm

Nicolas, I simply googled livex and cantemerle and their 2019 analysis was the top result. You have to check out all those you are interested in individually, but the info is open.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#974 Post by Jeff Leve » August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am

If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#975 Post by David_K » August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#976 Post by HenryB » August 7th, 2020, 8:32 am

David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
I think Jeff's point is that you're likely to get those wines at the original EP pricing when they get into bottle. You can still pick up all the wines like that right now at first tranche pricing. The ones to move for, not limited to but includes things like Clinet, probably L'Eglise clinet (though I question the value for money it represents), Lafleur, Mouton, Pontet Canet, Carmes Haut Brion, Canon, etc, wines like that that have firmly sold out.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#977 Post by David_K » August 7th, 2020, 8:34 am

HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:32 am
David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
I think Jeff's point is that you're likely to get those wines at the original EP pricing when they get into bottle. You can still pick up all the wines like that right now at first tranche pricing. The ones to move for, not limited to but includes things like Clinet, probably L'Eglise clinet (though I question the value for money it represents), Lafleur, Mouton, Pontet Canet, Carmes Haut Brion, Canon, etc, wines like that that have firmly sold out.
I understand, but I have found that those everyday wines do often increase a lot in percentage terms, even if the dollar difference isn't that significant.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#978 Post by Bengera A » August 7th, 2020, 8:41 am

I think Jeff's point is that for those wines, since the dollar difference isn't significant, it's not worth bothering/the hassle, or taking the risk (for example the merchant going bust or stiffing you). I agree with that point of view, but it's ultimately a personal spending decision.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#979 Post by DanielP » August 7th, 2020, 8:46 am

HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:32 am
David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
I think Jeff's point is that you're likely to get those wines at the original EP pricing when they get into bottle. You can still pick up all the wines like that right now at first tranche pricing. The ones to move for, not limited to but includes things like Clinet, probably L'Eglise clinet (though I question the value for money it represents), Lafleur, Mouton, Pontet Canet, Carmes Haut Brion, Canon, etc, wines like that that have firmly sold out.
You can still pick up most of those wines at release pricing
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#980 Post by HenryB » August 7th, 2020, 8:49 am

David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:34 am
HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:32 am
David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am


I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
I think Jeff's point is that you're likely to get those wines at the original EP pricing when they get into bottle. You can still pick up all the wines like that right now at first tranche pricing. The ones to move for, not limited to but includes things like Clinet, probably L'Eglise clinet (though I question the value for money it represents), Lafleur, Mouton, Pontet Canet, Carmes Haut Brion, Canon, etc, wines like that that have firmly sold out.
I understand, but I have found that those everyday wines do often increase a lot in percentage terms, even if the dollar difference isn't that significant.
TBH, not sure.

Personally and anecdotally, I've had mixed results with some of the cheaper wines - every now and then you hit some gold and it does pretty well, but often I find it fairly flat.

I'm just looking at Cantemerle now:

Vintage, EP Price, Price Now
2015, 210/12, 225/12
2016, 258/12, 250/12
2017, 246/12, 215/12
2018, 246/12*, 246/12

* as I couldnt find an actual offer email just it being offered at that price in an email (e.g. I didnt get a dedicated email to the Cantemerle 2018 release,but I can see it in other EP 2018 offers)

So aside from £15 on 2015 Cantemerle, you're actually better off buying it once it hits bottle in all of these recent vintages. Obviously your mileage may vary for other wines, vintages, etc, but I thought it was a good starting point.


DanielP wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:46 am
You can still pick up most of those wines at release pricing
Maybe I'm skewed because of the UK, but I've seen no supply of Pontet, Mouton, Clinet, Carmes Haut Brion, etc at first tranche pricing. I find what often looks like 'apparent' availability are websites that are slower to update, for example. I couldnt even find any Mouton after noon on the day it came out - trust me I tried after one of my merchants short-changed the promised allocation!

If you can get Carmes Haut Brion, Mouton or Lafleur at first tranche pricing, hit me up, I'll take a bunch.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#981 Post by DanielP » August 7th, 2020, 9:08 am

HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:49 am
If you can get Carmes Haut Brion, Mouton or Lafleur at first tranche pricing, hit me up, I'll take a bunch.
Just use wine-searcher in the US. I think most posters here are US based so the discussion is somewhat more US-biased.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#982 Post by HenryB » August 7th, 2020, 9:11 am

I am looking at wine-searcher as well. None of the wines I checked were available at first tranche pricing.

https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/les+ ... avourite=N

The cheapest US Carmes Haut Brion without tax I can find is $100/bottle, I paid $89/bottle. Mouton I paid $390/bottle, cheapest on WS is https://www.sothebyswine.com/ny/shop/mo ... hild-20192 at $415
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#983 Post by DanielP » August 7th, 2020, 9:15 am

You're comparing it to US first tranche pricing or UK pricing? Was your price IB?
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#984 Post by HenryB » August 7th, 2020, 9:17 am

DanielP wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 9:15 am
You're comparing it to US first tranche pricing or UK pricing? Was your price IB?
I'm comparing to what the ex-London release prices are (in bond, naturally).

I got:
Pontet @ £345/6
Mouton @ £1794/6
CHB @ £408/6
Lafleur @ £1450/3

among others
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#985 Post by Jeff Leve » August 7th, 2020, 10:12 am

David_K wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:22 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
I disagree. The difference between say $30 and $40 for a weekday-type wine is significant. (That is, if you're drinking the wines; nobody is or should be buying Cantemerle for "investment" purposes.)
It’s up to you. But you’ll be waiting years for those wines or longer. First the wines need to be bottled and shipped. And if you’re USA you might be waiting longer as none of those wines are over 14% ABV. To avoid the 25% tariff, most stores are not shipping or receiving shipments.

That level of wine might be more today, but I’m not sure it will hold when the wines are delivered.

And while it’s still too early to know, 2020 is looking good, which could put downward pressure on those wines.

I scored a lot of CB wines quite well in 2019. But they’re not really the best bets to buy as a future

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#986 Post by DanielP » August 7th, 2020, 11:14 am

HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 9:17 am
DanielP wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 9:15 am
You're comparing it to US first tranche pricing or UK pricing? Was your price IB?
I'm comparing to what the ex-London release prices are (in bond, naturally).

I got:
Pontet @ £345/6
Mouton @ £1794/6
CHB @ £408/6
Lafleur @ £1450/3

among others
It probably makes more sense to make the comparisons within a given country. Due to the variance in state law and sheer number of retailers, US futures pricing probably varies a little more than in the UK. CHB, Canon, and Clinet pricing in the US is currently about the same as release pricing. Mouton up a bit. Mouton in the US was ~400 at most retailers upon opening, so it's up 3-10%. Lafleur doesn't even warrant a mention because first tranche pricing is not accessible to most so any difference between release and market pricing has no relation to the rest of EP. Ultimately, I'd say only a few wines have appreciably changed in price, like LMHB. I don't even know of that many second tranche releases EP anyways.

My impression is also that EP in the UK is more susceptible to speculation due to the ease of transactions. Hence, the significant jump in pricing for Carmes Haut Brion in the UK versus the US.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#987 Post by Julian Marshall » August 7th, 2020, 11:24 am

EP depends so much on the country you live in, the currency, your secondary market, especially auctions, etc, but generally speaking I agree with Jeff. I've bought CBs and lower level CCs in the past and it never made financial sense in the short term. In the long term, the increases in percentage terms can be quite steep, but they are easy to find at release.
Also, I agree that 2020 is looking promising - bearing in mind the ongoing situation, why should prices for the wines rise? Even for the top wines, 2019 is looking quite good now, but for how long? As for 2018, it's only a question of time before the prices start dropping. 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019: that's an awful lot of good wine.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#988 Post by Jeff Leve » August 7th, 2020, 11:25 am

FWIW, with the exception of the First Growths and a hand-full of other wines, there are no tranches. There is no first or second tranches. All the wine the chateau plan on releasing are offered at the same time on the same day at the same price to all the negociants they sell to.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#989 Post by HenryB » August 7th, 2020, 12:49 pm

I'd naively assume - and always happy to be told I'm wrong - that you might get tranching by the negociants though? If they know something is gonna be hot, release a bit, see what price it stabilises at, and offer at that?

I was using ex-London as arguably the 'de facto' wine trading location for EP wines, generally speaking.

My opinion previously was that 2019 doesnt change the historic pricing for a lot of the investment spec wine, but I'm starting to wonder if I was wrong about that. If 2020 comes out low as well, and it's well established that 2016-2018 didnt all sell out on the first growth level (heard of merchants in the UK returning allocations) then perhaps you do see a shift to a new norm.

Fortunately aside from a couple of choice high end wines, most of my 17/18 purchases were drinking wines where I'm not too fussed about where the price actuallyy ends up.


Also, to be clear, I fully appreciate most wines dont have a second tranche release, my point was simply just to refer back to whatever their original price was - for some of the wines I've called out there, they are definitely tranched, but I'm trying to avoid the secondary market pimpact for those that arent.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#990 Post by Paul @bbott » August 7th, 2020, 11:36 pm

I am in the UK and so not bothered by the tariff issue. I purchase most of my EP through The Wine Society which is about as solid as you get in terms of future risk. I am not looking to make any money or even massive savings. I simply want to know that I have the wine that I want, when I want it, and have absolute confidence in the storage conditions. I buy 6 or 12 rather than individual bottles so I can track them over time. That sounds very simplistic when compared to much of the discussion on this thread but a bottle full of pleasure wanting until I think the time is right gives me something to look forward to.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#991 Post by Jeff Leve » August 8th, 2020, 9:46 am

HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 12:49 pm
I'd naively assume - and always happy to be told I'm wrong - that you might get tranching by the negociants though?
Tranches are from the chateaux, not the secondary market.

Negociants, wholesalers, merchants etc., might sell all the stock they have to raise money, or choose to hold the top wines and speculate. But those will be the higher during, collectible wines. However, that’s the market, not the chateau.

The world economy next June will dictate the prices.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#992 Post by HenryB » August 8th, 2020, 9:54 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 8th, 2020, 9:46 am
HenryB wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 12:49 pm
I'd naively assume - and always happy to be told I'm wrong - that you might get tranching by the negociants though?
Tranches are from the chateaux, not the secondary market.

Negociants, wholesalers, merchants etc., might sell all the stock they have to raise money, or choose to hold the top wines and speculate. But those will be the higher during, collectible wines. However, that’s the market, not the chateau.

The world economy next June will dictate the prices.

fair enough - i apologise for using the incorrect word. I say second tranche as a customer who sees multiple releases onto the market - whether the cause of that is a chateau doing a second release, or a negociant holding stock, matters little to me in many ways.

Appreciate that I've also muddied the waters by, in a previous post, factoring secondary market price shifts with actual release prices - I think it doesnt massively matter to the post I originally made around things like Mouton, CHB, PC, etc, being unavailable at their original release price
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#993 Post by Jeff Leve » August 8th, 2020, 10:11 am

Henry... Yes, it does not matter to you who increases prices. I agree. But tranches means the chateau raised their price. Else it was just the market at play.

If you bought early, I think every wine was available at the initial price. If you waited, secondary prices for the hot wines were inevitable.

Like I said, I have no idea what will happen with 2020, although the vintage so far is on target to be very good.

Do you read my site?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#994 Post by HenryB » August 8th, 2020, 10:17 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 8th, 2020, 10:11 am
Henry... If you bought early, I think every wine was available at the initial price. If you waited, secondary prices for the hot wines were inevitable.

Like I said, I have no idea what will happen with 2020, although the vintage so far is on target to be very good.

Do you read my site?
I think there's been some confusion tbh.

My point was to another poster (Daniel P) that a lot of the very top wines (with compelling "discounts") arent really available at the initial price. Mouton I was unable to find any extra by lunch time on the day it came out - I was expecting to get 12 bottles but only got 9, so was trying to get an extra set from another merchant without any luck, and I have a wide footprint across the UK merchant base. Carmes Haut Brion I was really lucky go get 12 bottles where I've never had an allocation previously.

I don't go out of my way to read your site, to be honest - which is a bit weird because I always go out of my way to read your reviews on cellar tracker. It does frequently come up top on my google searches, and I will read it when it comes up. Might be one to get into my workflow ;-)



Edit: With a view to your edit, yes, appreciate there is a causality difference between market vs tranche pricing changes - though I think, but as always am happy to be told I'm wrong by you Jeff! - that CHB, Mouton, Haut Brion and LMHB of the wines I mentioned did have second tranche releases?
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#995 Post by JonathanG » August 8th, 2020, 10:21 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 11:25 am
FWIW, with the exception of the First Growths and a hand-full of other wines, there are no tranches. There is no first or second tranches. All the wine the chateau plan on releasing are offered at the same time on the same day at the same price to all the negociants they sell to.
I did see price increases during the EP campaign. Some of the hot wines sold out at the retailer's initial release price. Chateau Canon, for example, had one price in the morning, and after the retailer sold some amount of it, the price went up (and I was told that they did me a favor by giving me the "release price"). Pontet Canet was the same. I don't know the mechanics of the chateaux and negociant relationship, just what I witnessed on release day. Call it "tranche" pricing or whatever, but it was different depending on how quick you were on the draw.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#996 Post by HenryB » August 8th, 2020, 10:23 am

JonathanG wrote:
August 8th, 2020, 10:21 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 11:25 am
FWIW, with the exception of the First Growths and a hand-full of other wines, there are no tranches. There is no first or second tranches. All the wine the chateau plan on releasing are offered at the same time on the same day at the same price to all the negociants they sell to.
I did see price increases during the EP campaign. Some of the hot wines sold out at the retailer's initial release price. Chateau Canon, for example, had one price in the morning, and after the retailer sold some amount of it, the price went up (and I was told that they did me a favor by giving me the "release price"). Pontet Canet was the same. I don't know the mechanics of the chateaux and negociant relationship, just what I witnessed on release day. Call it "tranche" pricing or whatever, but it was different depending on how quick you were on the draw.
Thanks Jon - that was my point, from the consumer-centric perspective rather than the chateau/distribution-network-centric perspective :D of course, one should be specific about language, tranching does appropriately refer to chateau releases rather than secondary movements
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#997 Post by Jeff Leve » August 8th, 2020, 11:07 am

Henry... As I said in an earlier post, First Growths do release I’m tranches. Though the first tranche is always the largest.

The production of LCHB is small, just a few thousand cases and allocations to negociants are sparse. It’s become a hot brand since I scored it 100😁

I mentioned my site cuz we publish notes/scores fairly early and they are in articles by appellation so it gives you a nice global understanding of the vintage

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#998 Post by HenryB » August 8th, 2020, 11:08 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 8th, 2020, 11:07 am
Henry... As I said in an earlier post, First Growths do release I’m tranches. Though the first tranche is always the largest.

The production of LCHB is small, just a few thousand cases and allocations to negociants are sparse. It’s become a hot brand since I scored it 100😁

I mentioned my site cuz we publish notes/scores fairly early and they are in articles by appellation so it gives you a nice global understanding of the vintage
I shall keep an eye going forwards :)

I was searching through my email a while ago and found a mid-2017 email from BBR offering me LCHB at a raather keen price. Somewhat annoyed I didnt take my account manager up on that, but by all accounts I did well to get 12 bottles of LCHB this vintage at original price (~£400/6)

As I said, I do always keen an eye out for you on Cellartracker, particularly on any wines I own! ;-)
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#999 Post by Keith Levenberg » August 8th, 2020, 12:52 pm

Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
Errmm, that's basically what I said 10 pages back that irked you so much and brought on your soapbox speech about how people should be buying Tour St. Christophe or Phelan Segur or whatever else.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#1000 Post by Jeff Leve » August 8th, 2020, 2:05 pm

Keith Levenberg wrote:
August 8th, 2020, 12:52 pm
Jeff Leve wrote:
August 7th, 2020, 8:16 am
If you guys are buying 2019 hoping to avoid paying higher prices later, don’t bother with Cru Bourgeois and Cantemerle or others in that price range. Good wines, but not big market movers. Those are drinker wines. For a better return, You need to focus on the top scoring Classified Growths and select Right Bank wines.
Errmm, that's basically what I said 10 pages back that irked you so much and brought on your soapbox speech about how people should be buying Tour St. Christophe or Phelan Segur or whatever else.
I’m a big fan of TSC. It’s dirt cheap and not much is made. It’s worth buying as a future IMO.

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