Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

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Br1an Th0rne
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#151 Post by Br1an Th0rne » March 19th, 2020, 7:33 pm

The fact that doctors and other medical professionals could lose substantial income due to a global health crisis is....what is the word I’m looking for?

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#152 Post by Larry Link » March 20th, 2020, 10:07 am

I think the answer depends on how long and how deep the recession goes. Short term, with brick and mortar retail shuttered, I suspect online sales and online auctions will get a boost. That blip will be short-lived assuming brick and mortar retail comes back. If the markets continue to go down, it absolutely will have a depressing effect on auction prices for high end wine. How much is just a guess.

For those of you that are data driven, I have some actual auction results to share. My consignment of 120 bottles that I am auctioning via K&L auctions is about 90% complete, first lot ended on 3/5/20, so right at the start of the US market reaction. The wines being auctioned were all in the high end category but no unicorns (Alban 44 bottles, Dauvissat 34 bottles, PYCM 18 bottles, Vogue CM 1er cru 9 bottles, miscellaneous 14 bottles) vintages of the reds ranged from 03-08, vintages of the whites ranged from 05-13, but mostly 11-13.

The results so far with 12 bottles yet to be auctioned:
My Cost: $9500
Reserve: $9600
Sales Price: $13,500 (my net will be $12,100 after K&L takes their 10% cut)

So far, 100% sell thru at good prices. No surprise the burgundies did really well, and seem to track the retail price very well. As an example, I sold 6 bottles of 2013 Dauvissat Preuses, in 2 separate 3 bottle lots. The first lot the buyer paid $196 per bottle, wine searcher shows that wine can be purchased for $210 in CA. The second lot is still running, the high bid right now is $201 per bottle with about a day to go. I can't imagine it will go higher.

So my conclusion based on this auction of 120 bottles (obviously a very limited data set) is that retail auction prices are holding up well in this environment.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#153 Post by A G Aguirre » March 20th, 2020, 10:13 am

Larry Link wrote:
March 20th, 2020, 10:07 am
I think the answer depends on how long and how deep the recession goes. Short term, with brick and mortar retail shuttered, I suspect online sales and online auctions will get a boost. That blip will be short-lived assuming brick and mortar retail comes back. If the markets continue to go down, it absolutely will have a depressing effect on auction prices for high end wine. How much is just a guess.

For those of you that are data driven, I have some actual auction results to share. My consignment of 120 bottles that I am auctioning via K&L auctions is about 90% complete, first lot ended on 3/5/20, so right at the start of the US market reaction. The wines being auctioned were all in the high end category but no unicorns (Alban 44 bottles, Dauvissat 34 bottles, PYCM 18 bottles, Vogue CM 1er cru 9 bottles, miscellaneous 14 bottles) vintages of the reds ranged from 03-08, vintages of the whites ranged from 05-13, but mostly 11-13.

The results so far with 12 bottles yet to be auctioned:
My Cost: $9500
Reserve: $9600
Sales Price: $13,500 (my net will be $12,100 after K&L takes their 10% cut)

So far, 100% sell thru at good prices. No surprise the burgundies did really well, and seem to track the retail price very well. As an example, I sold 6 bottles of 2013 Dauvissat Preuses, in 2 separate 3 bottle lots. The first lot the buyer paid $196 per bottle, wine searcher shows that wine can be purchased for $210 in CA. The second lot is still running, the high bid right now is $201 per bottle with about a day to go. I can't imagine it will go higher.

So my conclusion based on this auction of 120 bottles (obviously a very limited data set) is that retail auction prices are holding up well in this environment.
Hehe, ended up with some of that Dauvissat myself! I’ve been pretty active on KL auctions in the last year and do feel things are a tad softer right now than a few months back. My anecdotal example is 2001 JJ Prum WS Auslese. Recently picked up a half case for about 20% lower per bottle price than a three bottle lot of the same wine a few months back. Could just be random dynamics at play, small sample size, etc. But the auctions do feel a little less competitive.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#154 Post by Bryan Price » March 20th, 2020, 1:42 pm

tpetty wrote:
March 19th, 2020, 5:22 pm
I just approved cutting the income off all doctors and administrators at my group by 50%. We have 1000 employees - and are going to furlough or layoff half. With elective surgery shut down, and office based physicians seeing only more urgent issues, our cash flow is about to crash. Hopefully this won't be for too long or our large medical group will go bankrupt. I don't think you will see any of my colleagues buying wine for awhile.
My wife's outpatient surgery check was already cut 57%, and maybe next month she won't even receive one. This is absolutely going to impact our wine buying - with more than a year's worth of wine stored at home, there isn't much point in buying wine right now unless at fire sale prices. My purchases this year will be for those local producers I have formed a connection with and whose wine I continue to love, and very much want to continue to support. With that said, I will probably pass on some mailers this month where I already have too much of their wine stocked up.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#155 Post by David_K » March 20th, 2020, 1:50 pm

I'll be honest, though we're lucky so far that this hasn't affected our jobs, I'm just really not in the wine-buying mood unless there's just something I have to have.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#156 Post by Ron Erickson » March 20th, 2020, 2:02 pm

Many in the restaurant/hospitality industry tend to be more social, and while probably not top shelf, are more likely to enjoy a glass of wine or two. With the massive layoffs, I expect their purchases will disappear. With depressed sales, there is going to be a glut of wine sitting on the market, and the fire sales can't be far down the line.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#157 Post by Chris Seiber » March 20th, 2020, 2:10 pm

Ron Erickson wrote:
March 20th, 2020, 2:02 pm
Many in the restaurant/hospitality industry tend to be more social, and while probably not top shelf, are more likely to enjoy a glass of wine or two. With the massive layoffs, I expect their purchases will disappear. With depressed sales, there is going to be a glut of wine sitting on the market, and the fire sales can't be far down the line.
That makes sense. There is a sharp dip in demand right now, especially because of restaurant closures, yet the supply is unchanged. That should mean that there is downward pressure on prices and probably discounting ahead.

However, it's less clear if that applies to your expensive collector wines. Those may be at least partly insulated from those larger forces.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#158 Post by Patrick Stella » March 20th, 2020, 2:15 pm

Just trying to give everyone color to be helpful: consensus from our commercial clients is brick and mortar wine stores are doing well for now. Deliveries are still allowed, at least in NY even following the full lockdown. People seem to be buying wine for consumption at home. Here, at least--and I recognize different parts of the country don't necessarily have this dynamic--a lot of people store offsite, so people may be buying for at home consumption during the quarantine as warehouses are not delivering anymore.

Auctions we will see what happens next weekend in HK and then in April in NY. I think prices have to come down a bit but still hoping at this point the wine market will continue to at least function.

We'll see what happens...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#159 Post by blarmston » March 27th, 2020, 11:45 am

So it was one month ago when I asked that people check back in, to share whether they had made any changes to their investment strategy. Just curious to see if plans were altered, tweaked, etc.

I don’t expect anyone who went to cash to admit it, but I post this to restart dialogue that I thought was constructive...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#160 Post by Karl K » March 27th, 2020, 5:19 pm

Edited: decided the comment not interesting.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#161 Post by dteng » March 27th, 2020, 6:32 pm

I’ve noticed some definite change online for K&L auctions...got a couple lots uncontested, which surprised me.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#162 Post by A.Gillette » March 27th, 2020, 6:37 pm

blarmston wrote:
March 27th, 2020, 11:45 am
So it was one month ago when I asked that people check back in, to share whether they had made any changes to their investment strategy. Just curious to see if plans were altered, tweaked, etc.

I don’t expect anyone who went to cash to admit it, but I post this to restart dialogue that I thought was constructive...
Edited
A
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#163 Post by Markus S » March 27th, 2020, 7:08 pm

JLee wrote:
March 11th, 2020, 11:49 am
Considering that any financially sensible person ...
"Financially sensible", or do you mean "wealthy"?
$ _ € ® e . k @

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#164 Post by Craig G » March 27th, 2020, 9:21 pm

dteng wrote:
March 27th, 2020, 6:32 pm
I’ve noticed some definite change online for K&L auctions...got a couple lots uncontested, which surprised me.
Your friends will still drink that wine. Just sayin’.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#165 Post by JLee » March 28th, 2020, 10:41 am

Markus S wrote:
March 27th, 2020, 7:08 pm
JLee wrote:
March 11th, 2020, 11:49 am
Considering that any financially sensible person ...
"Financially sensible", or do you mean "wealthy"?
I mean financially sensible.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#166 Post by A.Gillette » April 11th, 2020, 6:40 pm

Checking in here. I assume the panic sellers feel doubly-burned at this point and are feeling a lot of regret. Seems like for those who are long term investors with liquidity, we are staring right into the teeth of one of the greatest buying opportunities in a very long time. Seems like you don’t really need to pick a bottom to do pretty well, although my guess is that the administration opens things up a little early and crashes the market again, which will feel like an even better opportunity than the current one, but maybe legging in now is the right move. Not sure what others are seeing.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#167 Post by Karl K » April 11th, 2020, 6:57 pm

Me personally I see another leg down but then that will be a great entry both short and mid term to go long equities.

Mid term big money will be rotating out of government bonds and into equities.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#168 Post by RichardFlack » April 11th, 2020, 7:01 pm

Short & medium term, volatility very high. So buckle up.

Longer term, I see some imponderables.
- Global rebalance, China rising, US sinking
- reduction in globalisation, shortening supply chains
- debt repayment, will governments tax or inflate their way out, and what will consumers do when their bills eventuality come due (deferral is not forgiveness)
- possible changes in social attitudes, acceptance of role of government etc, possible change in left / right wing balance ( to oversimplify)
- which sectors and companies will “have a good war” ... locally some companies have stepped up with new onlime offerings and new delivery methods, others have gone radio silent, more broadly, airlines say will have challenges

IMHO will be quite a few months before the fog lifts.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#169 Post by Mike Reff » April 11th, 2020, 7:31 pm

Just purchased some older 1990's Cali Cab from Acker, the wine auction was light and prices were going for the entry price.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#170 Post by Steve Brickley » April 11th, 2020, 8:35 pm

It collapsed?
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#171 Post by Ethan Abraham » April 12th, 2020, 4:14 am

Will be really interesting to see prices at the big hdh all-burg auction next week.

This article was also interesting - https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foodan ... 3famp=true

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#172 Post by dcornutt » April 12th, 2020, 4:32 am

Ethan Abraham wrote:
April 12th, 2020, 4:14 am
Will be really interesting to see prices at the big hdh all-burg auction next week.

This article was also interesting - https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foodan ... 3famp=true
They will be firm. I doubt a big downdraft. Small quantity and those who buy are insulated from the economy in a way. FWIW.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#173 Post by Brian Gilp » April 12th, 2020, 6:50 am

A.Gillette wrote:
April 11th, 2020, 6:40 pm
Checking in here. I assume the panic sellers feel doubly-burned at this point and are feeling a lot of regret. Seems like for those who are long term investors with liquidity, we are staring right into the teeth of one of the greatest buying opportunities in a very long time. Seems like you don’t really need to pick a bottom to do pretty well, although my guess is that the administration opens things up a little early and crashes the market again, which will feel like an even better opportunity than the current one, but maybe legging in now is the right move. Not sure what others are seeing.
A
IDK, it all seems a little too much like 2008. Bear went under in mid-March when liquidity locked up and then the market recovered until the real fall a few months later. This time there was no Bear but the market fell in mid March when liquidity locked up and now its recovering. What happens in September when the next largest liquidity bottleneck appears?

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#174 Post by Ethan Abraham » April 12th, 2020, 7:19 am

Mike Reff wrote:
April 11th, 2020, 7:31 pm
Just purchased some older 1990's Cali Cab from Acker, the wine auction was light and prices were going for the entry price.
Doesn't the web auction end tonight?

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#175 Post by A.Gillette » April 12th, 2020, 7:22 am

Brian Gilp wrote:
April 12th, 2020, 6:50 am
A.Gillette wrote:
April 11th, 2020, 6:40 pm
Checking in here. I assume the panic sellers feel doubly-burned at this point and are feeling a lot of regret. Seems like for those who are long term investors with liquidity, we are staring right into the teeth of one of the greatest buying opportunities in a very long time. Seems like you don’t really need to pick a bottom to do pretty well, although my guess is that the administration opens things up a little early and crashes the market again, which will feel like an even better opportunity than the current one, but maybe legging in now is the right move. Not sure what others are seeing.
A
IDK, it all seems a little too much like 2008. Bear went under in mid-March when liquidity locked up and then the market recovered until the real fall a few months later. This time there was no Bear but the market fell in mid March when liquidity locked up and now its recovering. What happens in September when the next largest liquidity bottleneck appears?
This doesn’t feel like 2008 to me. 2008 was much scarier from a financial perspective and it was much harder to imagine a fix. But to answer your question, my statement was explicitly geared toward long term investors, so I don’t really care about what happens in September. I’m not trying to catch the bottom. It’s gonna be bumpy for a while and I’m pretty certain that there is more short term pain and lots of ups and downs. But I’m thinking about September 2022 and if you have a liquidity, I think this market seems like a pretty good bet.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#176 Post by M Mager » April 12th, 2020, 9:07 am

blarmston wrote:
March 27th, 2020, 11:45 am
So it was one month ago when I asked that people check back in, to share whether they had made any changes to their investment strategy. Just curious to see if plans were altered, tweaked, etc.
Hi, Brian,

Certainly has been an interesting 6 weeks or so since the earlier discussion in this thread that you are referring to...

In terms of our investment strategy since then, the full list of things we've changed is, well, absolutely nothing... Haven't bought, sold or xferred anything in the after-tax portion of my portfolio. Haven't sold or transferred anything in the pre-tax portion of my portfolio. Haven't bought anything in the pre-tax portion of my portfolio, except for my 401K. I'm still working, so my bi-weekly contributions continue to be deducted and added (on a ratable and consistent basis) to my 401K, in accordance with our asset allocation plan. That's it. I haven't in the past, am not now, and don't plan in the future to change my long-term strategy in response to impacts that are (from a financial perspective) simply short-term noise blips that will not have any impact in the long-term signal.

The one change I did make last month was in the way I monitored the status of my investment portfolio. I have a tracking spreadsheet, and normally update at least weekly. But as events progressed in March, I realized that the day-to-day volatility was so severe as to make any current status meaningless. So I simply went "pencils down" for March. The markets appeared to be calming a bit recently, so I finally updated status last week. The overall haircut in our portfolio was not quite 10% -- not a trivial amount, but much less than I was expecting (I would have guessed closer to 25-30%).

Was a good reminder to me of how important it is to set up and maintain an asset allocation strategy that take into consideration both the risk tolerance of the investor (which, to me, is really just the level of volatility one can tolerate without a panic response) and the projected time-frame for eventual use of those investments. We rebalance to those targets at least annually, and update our asset allocation plan every 2-3 years. We did this most recently in 2019. As we are approaching retirement date, we decided in 2019 to adjust down our level of equity exposure (though it is still a significant portion of the portfolio - given need to outperform inflation over long-run). That adjustment in allocation model has helped mitigate the impact of the current market conditions.

We generally rebalance in early Q2 - after taxes are done. However, this year, given what I expect will be a continued rollercoaster ride for the next few months, I expect we'll just sit tight and wait until things shake out and calm down -- as they always do eventually. My best guess is that we will continue to see declines in the equity markets throughout the year - wouldn't surprise me to see another 20-30% drop before the end of the year. Then again, who knows? Either way, we'll continue to sail on the course we've charted -- knowing the sun will come out again eventually.

Hope all is well for you -- stay safe...

Michael


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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#177 Post by maureen nelson » April 12th, 2020, 9:51 am

In addition to my 401k regular investments and my reinvestments of dividends i made two investments in my after-tax account in the past two weeks. One is up 15.63% and the other is up 17.89%.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#178 Post by John Morris » April 12th, 2020, 5:32 pm

A partial answer to the original question appears in the "Wine Pricing at Auction - MENTAL" thread.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#179 Post by A.Gillette » May 19th, 2020, 6:25 pm

Checking in here since it’s been a while. Over the last year, the S&P 500 is...up roughly 1%.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#180 Post by Ethan Abraham » May 19th, 2020, 6:44 pm

Clearly the answer was...."no"

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#181 Post by blarmston » May 19th, 2020, 7:17 pm

More like- “not yet”.

We are in the second inning, with much of the game yet to be played.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#182 Post by Nick Gangas » May 20th, 2020, 2:23 pm

A.Gillette wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 6:25 pm
Checking in here since it’s been a while. Over the last year, the S&P 500 is...up roughly 1%.
A
year over year ? hmmmm

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#183 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 2:29 pm

blarmston wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 7:17 pm
More like- “not yet”.

We are in the second inning, with much of the game yet to be played.
Can you tell us how long the game is then?
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#184 Post by Jason T » May 20th, 2020, 2:50 pm

Greg K wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:29 pm
blarmston wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 7:17 pm
More like- “not yet”.

We are in the second inning, with much of the game yet to be played.
Can you tell us how long the game is then?
Somewhere between 9 and 27 innings. Hopefully.
J@son Tr@ughber

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#185 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 2:57 pm

Jason T wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:50 pm
Greg K wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:29 pm
blarmston wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 7:17 pm
More like- “not yet”.

We are in the second inning, with much of the game yet to be played.
Can you tell us how long the game is then?
Somewhere between 9 and 27 innings. Hopefully.
People who make predictions on these scales (it’s only just beginning!) usually end up calling 15 of the next 3 recessions.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#186 Post by Jason T » May 20th, 2020, 3:02 pm

Greg K wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:57 pm
Jason T wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:50 pm
Greg K wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:29 pm


Can you tell us how long the game is then?
Somewhere between 9 and 27 innings. Hopefully.
People who make predictions on these scales (it’s only just beginning!) usually end up calling 15 of the next 3 recessions.
None of us have crystal balls but to say that we are anywhere other than the beginning of this thing is a bit delusional. We are dealing with a diseases that spreads, harms and kills in a way that we simply haven’t dealt with in our lifetimes. World economy is crippled and it was already wounded before that. Currently no vaccine and. reasonable estimates say a year away if not more. Some possibility that there’s never a vaccine.

We are not in the 7th inning. Certainly not in the 5th. Maybe the 1st and the opposing team batted around a couple of times. Much more likely we are in the 2nd than anywhere else.
J@son Tr@ughber

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#187 Post by blarmston » May 20th, 2020, 4:15 pm

Greg K- why don’t you read through the entire thread, and note my comments, especially the early ones back in late Feb/early March. I think I was pretty spot on with my assessment.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#188 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 4:28 pm

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:15 pm
Greg K- why don’t you read through the entire thread, and note my comments, especially the early ones back in late Feb/early March. I think I was pretty spot on with my assessment.
I read the thread, I asked the question. You have not answered it.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#189 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 4:37 pm

Jason T wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 3:02 pm
Greg K wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:57 pm
Jason T wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:50 pm


Somewhere between 9 and 27 innings. Hopefully.
People who make predictions on these scales (it’s only just beginning!) usually end up calling 15 of the next 3 recessions.
None of us have crystal balls but to say that we are anywhere other than the beginning of this thing is a bit delusional. We are dealing with a diseases that spreads, harms and kills in a way that we simply haven’t dealt with in our lifetimes. World economy is crippled and it was already wounded before that. Currently no vaccine and. reasonable estimates say a year away if not more. Some possibility that there’s never a vaccine.

We are not in the 7th inning. Certainly not in the 5th. Maybe the 1st and the opposing team batted around a couple of times. Much more likely we are in the 2nd than anywhere else.
Aside from the economy not having been wounded when this began (huh?), this doesn’t answer the question. If you make predictions like “this is nowhere near close to the end” (and to be clear, it’s not your prediction), then I need a period when you think it may end. Otherwise, this is like Schrodinger’s prediction - always right and wrong at the same time.

I remember the 2008 financial crisis extremely well, having gone through it. And it’s far too easy for people to look sage by making vague pronouncements about eventual upcoming doom. It might eventually come, but, to paraphrase Keynes, the market can remain irrationally exuberant far longer than you can pay for your short positions.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#190 Post by blarmston » May 20th, 2020, 4:52 pm

My opinion is that we are in for a long, drawn out depressed environment.

Neither jobs nor economic growth will magically spring back in a V-shaped manner. We will see some jobs return sure, but employers will learn that they can manage with a much reduced workforce. The next leg down in job loss will be mid to late summer (assuming the govt doesn’t step in with another stimulus package, which looks base case at this point). Company defaults have only just begun- the Fed/Treasury can’t buy up everything. The biggest will get bigger, and the small will simply not reopen. As for the masses, UBI here we come.

As for the markets, the only reason the S&P isn’t at 1500 is because the Fed and Treasury have effectively combined and are running a Leveraged Bailout Fund through their newly created SPV. I personally think there will be another leg down. Maybe not a retest of the lows in March, but something in the 2500 range. Institutions have been redeeming from equities, buybacks have effectively been cut in half, and the only marginal buyer has been retail money flooding in. They are always the last ones in before the music stops, and they will be left holding the (excessively valued, overindebted) bag, once again.

So like I said above, everything that I’m seeing out there is more early Innings than late in the game.

I am not an uber bear, far from it. There are market environments where it’s prudent to take risk, and those where it’s not. One can be defensively positioned while maintaining intentional exposure to risk. Like I’ve suggested throughout this thread- tread carefully all...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#191 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 5:01 pm

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:52 pm
My opinion is that we are in for a long, drawn out depressed environment.
So, how long is that?
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#192 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 5:36 pm

[soap.gif]
blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:15 pm
Greg K- why don’t you read through the entire thread, and note my comments, especially the early ones back in late Feb/early March. I think I was pretty spot on with my assessment.
Couldn’t disagree with this more. We may be in the early days as you suggest, but you basically advocated panic selling at what are now current market levels. Feels like the wrong call to me. My personal belief is that the market will be lower in six months than it is now. But one can debate that. What is hard to support is the idea that panic selling in early March was a good decision, and that’s what you pushed for.
A
A
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#193 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 5:39 pm

Nick Gangas wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 2:23 pm
A.Gillette wrote:
May 19th, 2020, 6:25 pm
Checking in here since it’s been a while. Over the last year, the S&P 500 is...up roughly 1%.
A
year over year ? hmmmm
May 20 2019 vs May 19 2020
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#194 Post by blarmston » May 20th, 2020, 6:14 pm

A.Gillette wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 5:36 pm
[soap.gif]
blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:15 pm
Greg K- why don’t you read through the entire thread, and note my comments, especially the early ones back in late Feb/early March. I think I was pretty spot on with my assessment.
Couldn’t disagree with this more. We may be in the early days as you suggest, but you basically advocated panic selling at what are now current market levels. Feels like the wrong call to me. My personal belief is that the market will be lower in six months than it is now. But one can debate that. What is hard to support is the idea that panic selling in early March was a good decision, and that’s what you pushed for.
A
A
Never pushed anything. Simply tried to share some thoughts and to suggest that caution was advised. But if you can find the part where I wrote “sell everything! sell it all! The crash is coming! The crash is coming!”, then please share.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#195 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 6:42 pm

Ok
Last edited by A.Gillette on May 21st, 2020, 4:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#196 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 6:43 pm

Deleted
Last edited by A.Gillette on May 21st, 2020, 4:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#197 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 6:43 pm

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 6:14 pm
A.Gillette wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 5:36 pm
[soap.gif]
blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:15 pm
Greg K- why don’t you read through the entire thread, and note my comments, especially the early ones back in late Feb/early March. I think I was pretty spot on with my assessment.
Couldn’t disagree with this more. We may be in the early days as you suggest, but you basically advocated panic selling at what are now current market levels. Feels like the wrong call to me. My personal belief is that the market will be lower in six months than it is now. But one can debate that. What is hard to support is the idea that panic selling in early March was a good decision, and that’s what you pushed for.
A
A
Never pushed anything. Simply tried to share some thoughts and to suggest that caution was advised. But if you can find the part where I wrote “sell everything! sell it all! The crash is coming! The crash is coming!”, then please share.
So then what exactly were you “spot on” about? I’m trying very hard to understand your position.
Last edited by Greg K on May 20th, 2020, 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#198 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 6:43 pm

blarmston wrote:
March 10th, 2020, 2:52 pm
Dead.Cat.Bounce.
This is a good one.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#199 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 6:45 pm

Deleted
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#200 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 6:52 pm

Delete
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