Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

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Br1an Th0rne
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#201 Post by Br1an Th0rne » May 20th, 2020, 7:00 pm

A.Gillette wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 6:52 pm
blarmston wrote:
February 29th, 2020, 9:26 am
Well, my clients pay me for that advice, but I will say:
* expect a relief rally as the markets are extremely oversold short term (five standard deviations from normal levels). Use that opportunity to reassess your beta exposure
* consider using tight stops on high flying positions.
* it’s okay to trim positions that have unrealized gains- there’s a full 14 months until the tax is due, and there will be chances to offset gains with losses
* the mega cap tech names that have grown to the sky will revert back, it’s already started. Take profits from this round and have dry powder for the start of the next nine inning ballgame. Because this particular game is late late innings.
* consider hedges if you don’t already own them. For example, use any short term sell off in gold to start building exposure there.
* the selling isn’t over so prepare now
That’s all I got, as I just got to Napa so I’m going into a 72 hour wine buzz, gitty up...
This one is my favorite. One part of the above quote: “the mega cap tech names that have grown to the sky will revert back, it’s already started. Take profits from this round and have dry powder for the start of the next nine inning ballgame. Because this particular game is late late innings.”

You mean sell amazon and Microsoft? That advice was very clearly incorrect, right? One should have done the opposite.
Hope everyone sold their Facebook and Apple stock too!

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#202 Post by David_K » May 20th, 2020, 7:05 pm

A.Gillette wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 6:52 pm
blarmston wrote:
February 29th, 2020, 9:26 am
Well, my clients pay me for that advice, but I will say:
* expect a relief rally as the markets are extremely oversold short term (five standard deviations from normal levels). Use that opportunity to reassess your beta exposure
* consider using tight stops on high flying positions.
* it’s okay to trim positions that have unrealized gains- there’s a full 14 months until the tax is due, and there will be chances to offset gains with losses
* the mega cap tech names that have grown to the sky will revert back, it’s already started. Take profits from this round and have dry powder for the start of the next nine inning ballgame. Because this particular game is late late innings.
* consider hedges if you don’t already own them. For example, use any short term sell off in gold to start building exposure there.
* the selling isn’t over so prepare now
That’s all I got, as I just got to Napa so I’m going into a 72 hour wine buzz, gitty up...
This one is my favorite. One part of the above quote: “the mega cap tech names that have grown to the sky will revert back, it’s already started. Take profits from this round and have dry powder for the start of the next nine inning ballgame. Because this particular game is late late innings.”

You mean sell amazon and Microsoft? That advice was very clearly incorrect, right? One should have done the opposite.
So he may lose all my money, but he uses fancy words while he does it. That counts for something, right?
K@ntrОwi╦z

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#203 Post by blarmston » May 20th, 2020, 7:08 pm

Y’all are acting like the battle has been won. Like I’ve said before, I hope everyone is successful with their approach. Good luck to you.
-Brian Armston

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#204 Post by A.Gillette » May 20th, 2020, 7:13 pm

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A
Last edited by A.Gillette on May 21st, 2020, 4:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#205 Post by Greg K » May 20th, 2020, 9:32 pm

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 7:08 pm
Y’all are acting like the battle has been won. Like I’ve said before, I hope everyone is successful with their approach. Good luck to you.
Ah, so your argument is that if we wait long enough you’ll be proven right? I’ll ask again then - how long do we need to wait?
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#206 Post by Chuck Miller » May 21st, 2020, 1:07 am

Give it a rest, guys.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#207 Post by Larry Chmel » May 21st, 2020, 6:36 am

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:52 pm
My opinion is that we are in for a long, drawn out depressed environment.


As for the markets, the only reason the S&P isn’t at 1500 is because the Fed and Treasury have effectively combined and are running a Leveraged Bailout Fund through their newly created SPV.
Any prediction how long the Fed and Treasury can keep doing this? I'm not a Macroeconomic expert but I can't see how this won't lead to high inflation down the road. I think Victor H posted an article about how inflation may be in check for the near future because we're not in a situation where "too many $$ are chasing too few goods" but when the economy starts to get better, won't this reverse and inflation rear its' ugly head since the Fed has essentially created $$ out of thin air?

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#208 Post by Greg K » May 21st, 2020, 6:58 am

Larry Chmel wrote:
May 21st, 2020, 6:36 am
blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 4:52 pm
My opinion is that we are in for a long, drawn out depressed environment.


As for the markets, the only reason the S&P isn’t at 1500 is because the Fed and Treasury have effectively combined and are running a Leveraged Bailout Fund through their newly created SPV.
Any prediction how long the Fed and Treasury can keep doing this? I'm not a Macroeconomic expert but I can't see how this won't lead to high inflation down the road. I think Victor H posted an article about how inflation may be in check for the near future because we're not in a situation where "too many $$ are chasing too few goods" but when the economy starts to get better, won't this reverse and inflation rear its' ugly head since the Fed has essentially created $$ out of thin air?
At the moment, negative interest rates appear more likely than inflation.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#209 Post by Scott Jameson » May 21st, 2020, 7:47 am

Chuck Miller wrote:
May 21st, 2020, 1:07 am
Give it a rest, guys.
+1

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#210 Post by M Mager » May 21st, 2020, 11:43 am

blarmston wrote:
May 20th, 2020, 7:08 pm
Y’all are acting like the battle has been won. Like I’ve said before, I hope everyone is successful with their approach. Good luck to you.
Not sure I quite understand the "battle" analogy.

I don't claim to be anywhere near close to "the smartest guys in the room". And I wouldn't even think about making any specific predictions about how equity markets will move over any reasonably short period (any prediction I make would likely be no better than a random guess). At the same time, I think that almost all "the smartest guys in the room" aren't anywhere near as smart as they think they are, at least when it comes to making market predictions that are accurate and specific enough to outperform the long term returns for market averages over time. YMMV - hope springs eternal...

A few things I've learned over my 30+ years as an individual investor in the equity markets:

1) At some points in the future, the markets will go up; some of those periods will be longer than others, and some will go up more than others.
2) At some points in the future, the markets will go down; some of those periods will be longer than others, and some will go down more than others.
3) Human beings suck at predictions in general -- and really suck at predicting when the above periods will start and stop, and how significant they will be. And, because many of those predictions are driven less by objective analysis, and more by those two big emotions (fear and greed), the actions many take based on their predictions will be worse than random even.
4) Over just about any reasonably long holding period, equity markets will rise -- and, for the most part, within a relatively predictable band of increase overall. Of course, that won't always hold -- but strategies such as making consistent ratable contributions, rebalancing regularly, etc can help smooth those long term returns over the long haul. In other words, if you hold long enough, you can pretty much assure that your compound average return will be somewhat close to historical data
5) Because of items 1-3 above, funds that will need to be liquidated in the shorter terms have no place being invested in equity markets. 'Cause you never know when the volatility is going to hit, or how long it will last
6) Because of item #4 above, funds that are needed in the long term should be invested in equity markets. It's as close to a guarantee for most folks as they can get to achieving long-term wealth and escaping the ravages of inflation over the long-term.

The best part of all of the above is its simplicity -- even a dim bulb like me can do it.

Michael

P.S. - As of yesterday, our overall investment portfolio is down about 6.8% for the current calendar year. In response, I'll continue doing the same things I've been doing -- that is, nothing. This too shall pass. When, who knows? But, at some point, it will.
Michael

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#211 Post by Jonathan Loesberg » May 21st, 2020, 12:50 pm

Given how disastrous the economy is, it's more than a little surprising that the stock market is doing as well as it is (the Dow is still at levels it was earlier last fall, though well off it's high). The reason for this seems to be that there is still more money looking to be invested than there are investments, particularly in the bond market, which offers little mark-up over keeping cash in the mattress. That situation will keep stocks from tanking unless and until the money of the investment class starts to dry up, which so far is not happening.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#212 Post by A.Gillette » May 22nd, 2020, 5:31 pm

Jonathan Loesberg wrote:
May 21st, 2020, 12:50 pm
Given how disastrous the economy is, it's more than a little surprising that the stock market is doing as well as it is (the Dow is still at levels it was earlier last fall, though well off it's high). The reason for this seems to be that there is still more money looking to be invested than there are investments, particularly in the bond market, which offers little mark-up over keeping cash in the mattress. That situation will keep stocks from tanking unless and until the money of the investment class starts to dry up, which so far is not happening.
I don’t think the reason that the stock market is doing well is because “there is still more money looking to be invested than there are investments”. The reason the stock market is doing well is because of massive amounts of federal government money being injected into the system and artificially raising prices. But those chickens will come home to roost.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#213 Post by Craig G » May 22nd, 2020, 7:18 pm

Fortunately, chicken is tasty and we have a lot of wine.
“You need to look down to the bottom shelf where they keep the Fighting Cock” — Corey N.

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