Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

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maureen nelson
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Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#1 Post by maureen nelson » February 27th, 2020, 7:08 pm

Discuss!

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Marcus Dean
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#2 Post by Marcus Dean » February 27th, 2020, 7:15 pm

The absolute best deals I have got on wines have been during economic downturns. And not always at auction, when people need money in a real hurry you can get some great deals if you have cash in hand

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#3 Post by mstockley » February 27th, 2020, 7:22 pm

Duh!
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GregT
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#4 Post by GregT » February 27th, 2020, 7:37 pm

Doubt it. The market tumbled because of the coronavirus. With the housing market crash or dot com crash it was because of unsustainable economic euphoria. As soon as there's any hint of a vaccine or something, it will recover.

That assumes of course, that this is a "normal" kind of virus. The rumors and speculation about its origins sure aren't helping, nor is the fact that they're reporting lockdowns of entire towns in China and forcible quarantines of people. That only make people wonder if there isn't something that's not being revealed.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#5 Post by Pat K » February 27th, 2020, 8:47 pm

Marcus Dean wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 7:15 pm
The absolute best deals I have got on wines have been during economic downturns. And not always at auction, when people need money in a real hurry you can get some great deals if you have cash in hand
No experience with live/online wine auctions.

Still looking for sales, however, from my mailing list vintners (all domestic). Sweet spot is $20-$40. Fully loaded price: tax, shipping, list price, etc. Did not even see much tempting during January, which is usually pre-inventory month.

I can be patient. One never knows....

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#6 Post by blarmston » February 27th, 2020, 10:18 pm

Yes, there will be deals to be had.

And no, this isn’t a run of the mill sell off that will show a V-shaped snapback. This virus is the pin that found the bubble. Lots of people/asset classes/ institutions have been swimming naked, and the tide is going out... Buckle Up...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#7 Post by bruce curfman » February 27th, 2020, 11:00 pm

Shouldn't that be "swimming naked, and the tide is now going out!" ???

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#8 Post by blarmston » February 27th, 2020, 11:01 pm

Whoops, yes you’re correct.

Mental note- don’t post after several glasses of wine... fixed
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#9 Post by Sh@n A » February 27th, 2020, 11:21 pm

I reduced/cancelled some bids.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#10 Post by James Billy » February 27th, 2020, 11:35 pm

GregT wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 7:37 pm
Doubt it. The market tumbled because of the coronavirus. With the housing market crash or dot com crash it was because of unsustainable economic euphoria. As soon as there's any hint of a vaccine or something, it will recover.

That assumes of course, that this is a "normal" kind of virus. The rumors and speculation about its origins sure aren't helping, nor is the fact that they're reporting lockdowns of entire towns in China and forcible quarantines of people. That only make people wonder if there isn't something that's not being revealed.


Great documentary here showing lots of videos of what's happening in Wuhan, China at the moment.

Dead bodies in hospital waiting room, doctors screaming to be released from their duties, apartment buildings doors being padlocked or even welded shut (I kid you not), people yelling from their apartments that their relatives are dying and need treatment and a quote from the supreme court (or similar) that the government needs to stop withholding information. Bedlam!

Just thank your lucky stars that you're not in Wuhan now!

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#11 Post by Victor Hong » February 28th, 2020, 4:09 am

China-made Bordeaux may see few auction bids.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#12 Post by Ethan Abraham » February 28th, 2020, 4:21 am

There was a somewhat rambling post on one of the wine Facebook groups that burgundy prices are collapsing on the liv-ex market. I am curious if anyone who has access to liv-ex can share some examples, if true.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#13 Post by John S » February 28th, 2020, 5:16 am

Fine wine prices always soften when the financial markets take a bath. It is typically lagged in that it takes a while to see. It also is generally less that what many expect or want but it is certainly there. The very limited supply of some very high end wines means those prices after do not fall like one would think. If I was watching look at Bordeaux prices where at least the volumes are larger than certainly tiny burgs etc.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#14 Post by I. Howe » February 28th, 2020, 5:25 am

IMHO, this virus, and the panic surrounding it, are going to collapse the global economy. So to answer your question, yes, wine prices are going to drop significantly.

Let's take the area where I live, Orlando. Theme park capital of the world. What happens when people either cannot travel, or are afraid to travel? A good friend of mine had a trip booked for later this year; Nairobi, Milan and Amsterdam. For his family of three, he spent $8,500 on plane tickets. He just canceled them yesterday, and ate a $2,400 cancelation fee. Not so much because they are afraid of the actual virus, but because they are afraid of getting quarantined.

In my work life, I am a wholesaler in the run and cycle industry. I have multiple manufacturers who were late to re-open their factories after the Chinese New Year, and even more who are still not open today. It has not caused an issue yet, but when those pipelines of products run dry, I have nothing to sell. And my retailers have nothing to sell. And at that point, neither the wholesalers, me or my retailers are making any money.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#15 Post by markjchambers » February 28th, 2020, 5:45 am

People have gotten used to the V-shaped recovery since 2008, but this is going to last at least a couple more months. Hopefully the end flu season will be the end of coronavirus season. The market will recover but I'm guessing it will take months. Rates will go back to zero so people will be be forced into risk assets to get any kind of return.

The last similar pandemic was flu in 1968. It had a low mortality rate, but it killed about a million people worldwide. Hong Kong was hit very hard. I was a teenager then and have no memory, but it's interesting to read about it.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#16 Post by Markus S » February 28th, 2020, 6:44 am

I. Howe wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 5:25 am
And at that point, neither the wholesalers, me or my retailers are making any money.
This is when savings kicks in.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#17 Post by RichardFlack » February 28th, 2020, 7:42 am

blarmston wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 11:01 pm
Whoops, yes you’re correct.

Mental note- don’t post after several glasses of wine... fixed
Pray tell what the original version was if it’s worth a chuckle.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#18 Post by I. Howe » February 28th, 2020, 7:58 am

Markus S wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 6:44 am
I. Howe wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 5:25 am
And at that point, neither the wholesalers, me or my retailers are making any money.
This is when savings kicks in.
[rofl.gif] Yeah, cause Americans are so good at saving for a rainy day.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#19 Post by s.nellessen » February 28th, 2020, 8:25 am

Current HDH auction (today tomorrow) looking fairly typical on hammer prices. eg DRC right down the middle.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#20 Post by Brady Daniels » February 28th, 2020, 8:45 am

Perhaps DRC is an alternative asset class. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I know at least one person who canceled HDH bids. He didn’t realize you could cancel until I told him. I suspect others made bids before this week's decline, and are just letting them ride.

Next month's burg auction will be more interesting.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#21 Post by Nathan Smyth » February 28th, 2020, 9:04 am

markjchambers wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 5:45 am
Hopefully the end flu season will be the end of coronavirus season.
This is what I keep wondering - whether the United States might dodge this one simply because the weather is starting to warm up.

It hit China in the dead of winter, and that's a real whammy to be throwing at peoples' respiratory tracts when they're the most vulnerable.

By contrast, until the case reported in Nigeria the other day [involving a travelling Italian], there were few if any infections in the Southern Hemisphere, with the big exception of course being the politically-correct fools in Australia [how can you possibly allow a deadly pandemic to enter a friggin ISLAND unless you're simply suicidal?].

Although, again, the summer weather in Australia right now ought to help those suicidal fools ride this one out.
blarmston wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 10:18 pm
Lots of people/asset classes/ institutions have been swimming naked, and the tide is going out... Buckle Up...
Every politician, bureaucrat, lobbyist, economics professor, business professor, business guru, business consultant, environmentalist, author, scribe, script-writer, news-reader, media-producer, media-owner, minister, priest, rabbi, propaganda regurgitator, and every other assorted egghead or snake oil salesman in the greater Idiocracy Industrial Complex, who advocated for outsourcing our manufacturing base to Communist China, needs to be lined up against a wall and shot.

No exceptions.

After we liquidate all of them, we can turn our attention to becoming economically self-sufficient again.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#22 Post by AndrewH » February 28th, 2020, 9:07 am

I. Howe wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 5:25 am
A good friend of mine had a trip booked for later this year; Nairobi, Milan and Amsterdam. For his family of three, he spent $8,500 on plane tickets. He just canceled them yesterday, and ate a $2,400 cancelation fee. Not so much because they are afraid of the actual virus, but because they are afraid of getting quarantined.
Side note: Surely it would have cost him no more to wait to see if the airline(s) would waive the cancellation fees, as they have in many other affected areas.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#23 Post by Brian Gilp » February 28th, 2020, 9:08 am

Nathan Smyth wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 9:04 am
By contrast, until the case reported in Nigeria the other day [involving a travelling Italian], there were few if any infections in the Southern Hemisphere,
There is no way to know if there are few reported cases due to there being few cases or if its an issue of inability to test. I personally believe its more a function of testing but have no data to support that position.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#24 Post by Br1an Th0rne » February 28th, 2020, 9:53 am

The HDH bids have been pretty strong thus far...Bordeaux and SQN caught my eye as being higher than I expected (bid)!

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#25 Post by GregT » February 28th, 2020, 10:57 am

Oddly enough, Trump seems to have been right on this one for once, calling for restrictions on foreign travelers from Wuhan and China all the way back in January. That didn't happen of course. Some of the people who have it now were brought in from the cruise ship, and apparently the workers who brought them over were exposed as well.

OTOH, the governor of Illinois said that the two people who had it there seem to be back in good health.

So far we know that it spreads easily but the best news from China, if that is in any way reliable, is that while people get sick, fatalities seem lower than they were for other diseases. The worst flu by far in the past century was the one in 1918, which killed millions of people. Subsequent outbreaks were far milder, including the Spanish flu and the Hong Kong flu. It was only a few years ago that people were worried about the swine flu, and more recently SARS and MERS. None caused the global economic problems that were predicted. So I wouldn't be counting on wine prices dropping solely due to this virus.

But obviously nobody knows. It's just the way I would guess.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#26 Post by Nick Gangas » February 28th, 2020, 11:09 am

My guess is some of the stock market reaction is due to a possible Bernie presidency.

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#27 Post by Markus S » February 28th, 2020, 11:17 am

Nathan Smyth wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 9:04 am
...After we liquidate all of them, we can turn our attention to becoming economically self-sufficient again.
This popped up when i opened the thread and when I scrolled up to see the author's name, I felt no surprise.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#28 Post by Markus S » February 28th, 2020, 11:20 am

Brady Daniels wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:45 am
Perhaps DRC is an alternative asset class. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yes, Blue chip liquid gold...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#29 Post by blarmston » February 28th, 2020, 12:04 pm

RichardFlack wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 7:42 am
blarmston wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 11:01 pm
Whoops, yes you’re correct.

Mental note- don’t post after several glasses of wine... fixed
Pray tell what the original version was if it’s worth a chuckle.
Nothing too humorous, unfortunately- I had wrote tide going in versus going out.

As for one of the posts about the secondary effects of this virus, they nailed it. There will be derivative effects from this, and its not quantifiable at this point.

What we had was a market at excessive valuations, all time highs in a couple megacap names (most of the S&P was still well below AT high's, meaning the index was being supported by a handful of stocks), extreme investor positioning, and historically high complacency. This violent move is a reversion back to the mean. Its like pulling on a rubber band- at some point its going to break, or snap back.

Like I mentioned earlier- buckle up folks...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#30 Post by Sh@n A » February 28th, 2020, 12:40 pm

My low bids at HDH auction were... too low. '05 Faiveley Beze.. effectively went for $400/bottle with commission. Available at retail $350... not gonna win the '89 Lynch Bages...
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#31 Post by Matt A » February 28th, 2020, 1:35 pm

After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#32 Post by Joe B » February 28th, 2020, 1:49 pm

blarmston wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 11:01 pm
Whoops, yes you’re correct.

Mental note- don’t post after several glasses of wine... fixed
I’m not taking your word for this. Later tonight after a couple or three glasses, I will post my insights into investing in this market. Your money, not mine. [cheers.gif]
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#33 Post by John Morris » February 28th, 2020, 1:56 pm

Matt A wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:35 pm
After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.
Just curious. How far in advance of the auction can you post your absentee bids?
"English doesn't just borrow foreign words, it stalks languages down dark alleyways, knocks them over and then rifles their pockets for new words." -- @Another NPC on YouTube

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#34 Post by asnitow » February 28th, 2020, 2:07 pm

John Morris wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:56 pm
Matt A wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:35 pm
After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.
Just curious. How far in advance of the auction can you post your absentee bids?
As soon as the bidding opens, usually several weeks before the live auction.
And the bidding was very strong today. Many things i bid on ultimately hammered above the high estimate. And HDH is good about realistic estimates.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#35 Post by Br1an Th0rne » February 28th, 2020, 4:18 pm

Matt A wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:35 pm
After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.
A case of ‘08 Dom Perignon went for $190 per bottle, case of ‘03 Pontet Canet $160 per bottle, way above retail and auction averages...makes no sense to me. You can bid weeks in advance of the auction, but can modify (or even cancel) your bids until the lot comes up. So these likely weren’t bids made two weeks ago when the market and economy was booming...

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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#36 Post by John Morris » February 28th, 2020, 4:33 pm

asnitow wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 2:07 pm
John Morris wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:56 pm
Matt A wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 1:35 pm
After following HDH auction today and comparing my watch list and bids to previous auctions.

It’s a comical “No”.
Most hammer prices are higher on owc’s (Napa wines). $100-$300 higher actually.
I passed on all of my watch list wines.
Just curious. How far in advance of the auction can you post your absentee bids?
As soon as the bidding opens, usually several weeks before the live auction.
And the bidding was very strong today. Many things i bid on ultimately hammered above the high estimate. And HDH is good about realistic estimates.
I asked because I wonder if the absentee bids were submitted before the market went into its slump. How many people would have retracted their bids this week?
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#37 Post by Brady Daniels » February 28th, 2020, 5:21 pm

John Morris wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 4:33 pm
I asked because I wonder if the absentee bids were submitted before the market went into its slump. How many people would have retracted their bids this week?
Many bids are submitted far ahead. But you can pull your bid until that lot is live. It’s easy. That said, I had to tell another guy about that feature.

I'd guess some of the high bids were pre-submitted and forgotten, but I’d hope most bidders knew what they were doing, and action seemed strong overall.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#38 Post by Arv R » February 28th, 2020, 6:56 pm

Marcus Dean wrote:
February 27th, 2020, 7:15 pm
The absolute best deals I have got on wines have been during economic downturns. And not always at auction, when people need money in a real hurry you can get some great deals if you have cash in hand
I had a friend who once picked up a case of 1991 Dominus at $100 per when a dipsh!t divorcing friend of his 'needed' to make the car payment on his BMW, so he sold an OWC to him at that distress price. The guy still ended up losing the car to the finance co, just a month later, of course. That friend of his always had stuff like that going on. That must have been his 2nd or 3rd marriage too, all to exotic dancers and that ilk as well.

At least I got to taste a couple bottles of the 91 Dominus, courtesy of that whole chain of events, and they were fantastic.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#39 Post by jnbrown » February 28th, 2020, 7:11 pm

I don't know about wine, but there was a sale on stocks so I bought some.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#40 Post by blarmston » February 28th, 2020, 8:11 pm

Please check back in one month from now and let us know how that worked out for you... And don’t fib 😉
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#41 Post by jnbrown » February 28th, 2020, 8:27 pm

blarmston wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:11 pm
Please check back in one month from now and let us know how that worked out for you... And don’t fib 😉
I am the worlds worst investor, what ever I do the market does the opposite.
So expect a further plunge.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#42 Post by Brady Daniels » February 28th, 2020, 8:41 pm

jnbrown wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:27 pm

I am the worlds worst investor, what ever I do the market does the opposite.
So expect a further plunge.
Index - Buy - Hold - Rebalance
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#43 Post by Ken Strauss » February 28th, 2020, 8:43 pm

The people who are bidding on these special wines are not significantly affected by the stock market dip.
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#44 Post by blarmston » February 28th, 2020, 9:47 pm

Brady Daniels wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:41 pm
jnbrown wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:27 pm

I am the worlds worst investor, what ever I do the market does the opposite.
So expect a further plunge.
Index - Buy - Hold - Rebalance
Please check back in one month from now and let us know how that worked out for you... And don’t fib 😉
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#45 Post by Jason T » February 28th, 2020, 11:25 pm

blarmston wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 9:47 pm
Brady Daniels wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:41 pm
jnbrown wrote:
February 28th, 2020, 8:27 pm

I am the worlds worst investor, what ever I do the market does the opposite.
So expect a further plunge.
Index - Buy - Hold - Rebalance
Please check back in one month from now and let us know how that worked out for you... And don’t fib 😉
It’s possible that both of you are right. Brady’s approach could well leave him under that of an active investor in one month. But Brady doesn’t have a time horizon of one month, he’s a long-term investor. And over the long term he’s going to smoke the overwhelming majority of active retail investors. And a fair number of active mutual funds.

It leaves him more time to find auction deals in a soft economy while you active investors run the rabbit wheel with your portfolios. [wink.gif]
J@son Tr@ughber

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Paul Jaouen
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#46 Post by Paul Jaouen » February 29th, 2020, 12:47 am

Everything I was interested in at HDH's first day auction went at high or over high estimate. And I certainly wouldn't call what happened this week a stock market "collapse".
Best,
Paul Jaouen

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blarmston
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#47 Post by blarmston » February 29th, 2020, 5:14 am

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth- Mike Tyson

Every passive investor has a buy and hold approach, until they suffer a 25% drawdown in one month.

I hope every single person on this board is successful with their investment approach, I really do. But what I’m seeing out there, and what my firm is seeing out there, suggests it’s best to err on the side of caution. And a buy/hold approach and ‘buy the dip’ mentality works great, until it doesnt.
-Brian Armston

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Joe B
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#48 Post by Joe B » February 29th, 2020, 7:49 am

While my portfolio has dropped a good 12% last week, I am sure I will not see an equal drop in prices for wine. Like ever.
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Jason T
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#49 Post by Jason T » February 29th, 2020, 8:29 am

blarmston wrote:
February 29th, 2020, 5:14 am
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth- Mike Tyson

Every passive investor has a buy and hold approach, until they suffer a 25% drawdown in one month.

I hope every single person on this board is successful with their investment approach, I really do. But what I’m seeing out there, and what my firm is seeing out there, suggests it’s best to err on the side of caution. And a buy/hold approach and ‘buy the dip’ mentality works great, until it doesnt.
I think history shows that active investors are far more likely to sell in a panic. That’s how the buy and hold approach came into existence.

I don’t doubt that being an active investors works for you, but there are very, very few that it works for - far fewer than take that approach.
J@son Tr@ughber

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Jason T
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Re: Will stock market collapse equal lower prices at wine auctions?

#50 Post by Jason T » February 29th, 2020, 8:29 am

blarmston wrote:
February 29th, 2020, 5:14 am
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth- Mike Tyson

Every passive investor has a buy and hold approach, until they suffer a 25% drawdown in one month.

I hope every single person on this board is successful with their investment approach, I really do. But what I’m seeing out there, and what my firm is seeing out there, suggests it’s best to err on the side of caution. And a buy/hold approach and ‘buy the dip’ mentality works great, until it doesnt.
What does ‘erring on the side of caution’ mean in this case?
J@son Tr@ughber

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