October 1 - 2019 - it is official - wine fatigue is now for real.
All of the signs are present - from U.K. to the U.S. to Asia, every major market is flooded with wine and offers.
From offers of Bulk juice to mid-level wines to brands well known starting with OVERTURE and Opus One and Premium Sonoma & Napa Cabs.
It is like the missing chair game - the movement has stopped.
Auctions will have more stock offered to them- check the auctions and prices - which will not be purchased without significant price reduction,
Luxury wineries will have more unsold stock,
As will retailers,
and private collectors/sellers will feel the difference, it has begun.
I don’t necessarily have reason to doubt your claims, but do you have a source or sources, or is this just a conclusion you’re drawing from your own observations?
I’ve learned we are a good Bell weather because of the nature of the High End wine market - our clients from Macau, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, to the U.S. and U.K. we can feel the energy in the movement.
And then I can tell from the offers we receive, from the U.S. distributors, retailers, and the conversations I have across all of these platforms. How other distributors say what is happening.
BTW, I have absolutely no knowledge or feel for the wine market of wines priced under $100/bt or boxed wine - so my views do not include that market.
This Tsunami is still out at sea, I do not think it has even hit retail yet.
I do not know how to interpret that except to state - I imagine you will not be purchasing, and that is what will be happening.
You think that is a sign of how healthy the market is…?
William, are you mainly referring to high-end wine from the US? If so I don’t think many would disagree that demand for that feels a little bit soft, especially after years of relentless price escalation
Or would you include other regions in there as well?
Thank you for clearing that up, yes, I should have stated it is all of the U.S. wines… you are right… Absolute! The market is just fed up…
I was in England a few weeks back and so many of the major California High end representatives were making the rounds, and I did not sense excitement at all,…
and the offers I am receiving from California high end wineries is absurd…
I’ve not seen that at all from the French - thanks for helping me with that clarity of point
This thread’s message is so vague but I think I understand the spirit.
2017 Novicium offer out today (second label of continuum) for…$150/bottle. IIRC, the 2013 was $80/bottle. Bought every vintage of Continuum 2009 and prior for less than $150/bottle. The Novicium offer today sold out in less than 90 minutes.
Mind blown!
Guesses for price of the upcoming Continuum release?
The UK market is driven by investment, not necessarily drinking.
Maybe buyers finally came to their senses and realized that buying Napa wines at the prices offered was not a wise decision if they were looking for a future gain.
In many ways, the UK market is driven by investment, not necessarily drinking.
Maybe buyers finally came to their senses and realized that buying Napa wines at the prices offered was not a wise decision if they were looking for a future gain.
Just am fyi on Novicium. The old pricing did not include shipping the last two releases do which adds about $20/bottle and pricing was $145. I believe the 15 was around $100 so while it’s a big increase its not nearly what you portrayed. Also in 16 they switched from a cab franc heavy blend to a cab sauv heavy blend so it’s become a very different wine. With that said after buying the 16 at $145 I passed this year.
Ah, that helps the comparison. Picked up the 2013s in person hence the $80 price. Frankly it might be worth it relative to competition though still hard to stomach upfront.
Last continuum I picked up was 2015 @ $225/bottle including shipping. Guessing we’re approaching $275 or $300 soon? It is Pritchard hill after all, even if the SVD is “sage mountain” (and adjacent to stagecoach).
FWIW one thing that pissed me off was we tasted there last November and bought the 16 when the new pricing was introduced. They offered to ship the wine but we were there and driving home the next day so shipping created more unnecessary risk. We still had to pay the higher tariff which included the shipping despite taking it to go. At $125 I would’ve taken a six pack instead of three. Just felt wrong which contributed to us passing this this year.