Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

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John Peacock
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Re: Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

#51 Post by John Peacock » September 11th, 2019, 9:59 am

GregP wrote:
September 9th, 2019, 11:43 pm
I know of no one who presses off until completely dry. If you know who does, then list them here. Or stop posting nonsense. Only because you think/believe something does not make it true. But, yes, list names, should be an interesting and very extensive list judging by your beliefs. Don't be shy.
Just a touch of clarification, which isn't to counter your point of there being dry CA (or US for that matter) wine. I have seen and heard of wineries that will press off at around 0 brix and finish fermentation (getting to -2 brix or so) in barrel or tank. It is hard to get every last bit of sugar out of the grapes in a fermenter of whole cluster without pressing, so if you think you're fully dry in that scenario and then press, you'll have a little RS in your barrels (which will then likely ferment if the barrel room is warm enough).
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Doug Schulman
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Re: Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

#52 Post by Doug Schulman » September 11th, 2019, 10:02 am

Thanks for the detail, John.

I do wonder, though, why anyone ever tries to reason with Nathan or get him to make sense. There is no point. Everyone can see his posts for what they are.
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Roy Piper
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Re: Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

#53 Post by Roy Piper » September 11th, 2019, 11:14 am

I have been quietly offered fruit I’ve not seen available in a long time. Two years ago there was nothing available. Now even some great vineyards are. And at prices below what I would have guessed. But I am standing pat at my current size for at least another year or so. I don’t know many taking advantage of the availability. Any grower that raises prices right now will lose clients. Have not seen this dynamic since about 2010.
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Gordon Fitz
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Re: Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

#54 Post by Gordon Fitz » September 11th, 2019, 11:40 am

The answer to the OP question is simple. My farm does corn and soybeans. Swine flu knocked out a lot of hogs in China and there went demand! Prices are cratering because the American farmer doesn’t want to cut production to meet demand. The general expectation is for farm values to fall along with multiple bankruptcies forcing a drop in production.

Look at all the dairy farmers from 10-20 Tagore no longer in the business. Overproduction lead to dirt cheap prices for milk which eventually thinned the herds. Ten to Fifteen years ago most everyone was asking where were all those grapes being brought online in newly planted vineyards in the Willamette going to go.

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GregT
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Re: Oversupply in the Grape and Bulk Wine Market - And What This May Mean . . .

#55 Post by GregT » September 11th, 2019, 1:17 pm

Except that corn, soybeans, and pigs are considered commodities, whereas not all grapes are. But apparently even special grapes are commodity-like these days based on what Roy and Alan have said.
Adam Lee wrote:
September 11th, 2019, 3:46 am
GregT wrote:
September 5th, 2019, 12:56 pm


The article is misleading even if it does mention the central issue. Grapes that were grown under contract usually are not left hanging on vines because the buyer changes his mind. If there are too many grapes now, those are almost certainly grapes that were grown in hopes of finding a buyer
One specific example that somewhat contradicts this. In one particular, smaller, high-end AVA in California, the largest vineyard in the area was under contract to Constellation. Constellation dumped the contract - simply said they weren't going to pay for the grapes. The owners of the vineyard ended up leasing the vineyard to someone for the cost of farming from July 1 through harvest (guessing around $1000 per acre). At 4ish tons per acre (fairly closely spaced) the fruit that is sold is down to $250 a ton cost. The new person leasing the vineyard is going to sell what he can at between $500-$1000 a ton and then drop any fruit he can't sell on the ground. That means that approximately 19 percent of the fruit in this AVA is now doing to be sold at $500-$1000 a ton (where the going average price has been around $3000 a ton previously).

Adam Lee
Adam - they did have some kind of written contract though, didn't they? Seems like Constellation would owe them something, no? That seems pretty outrageous.
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