2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

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Adam Levyn
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2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#1 Post by Adam Levyn » June 21st, 2019, 11:30 am

Since it was mentioned on the Best Bordeaux futures retailers post and we are essentially through most of the 2018 season (save for Petrus) - curious what others on the Board bought of 2018 futures. It is a special year for me so did a good bit:

1. Leoville Las Cases - 6x750ml and 1x3L
2. Calon-Segur - 6x750ml and 1x3L
3. Les Carmes Haut-Brion - 6x750ml
4. Lynch-Bages - 2x375ml
5. Pontet-Canet - 2x375ml
6. Rauzan-Segla - 6x750ml
7. Ausone - 1x3L
8. Lafite Rothschild - 6x750ml
9. Canon - 6x750ml

Thought it would be fun to see what everyone did! Put most of my orders in with Total Wine and Zachy's save for the Rauzan which I found at Laguna Cellar for a good price (it has since moved up).

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#2 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 21st, 2019, 3:35 pm

3 x 2018 Domaine de Chevalier
1 x 2018 Domaine de Chevalier (1.5L)
1 x 2018 Château Canon (1.5L)
1 x 2018 Château Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande (1.5L)
3 x 2018 Château Léoville Poyferré
6 x 2018 Château Pontet-Canet
3 x 2018 Château Les Carmes Haut-Brion

All 750ml, except where noted.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#3 Post by Gray G » June 21st, 2019, 4:37 pm

none and never will again

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#4 Post by CraigT » June 21st, 2019, 6:15 pm

1. Clinet (case)
2. Les Carmes Haut Brion (case)
3. Palmer (case)
4. Larcis Ducasse (case)
5. Calon Segur (case)
6. Canon (case)
7. Rauzan Segla (case)
8. Pontet Canet (case)
9. Beausejour Duffau Lagarrosse (case)
10. Leoville Las Cases (case)
11. Ausone (3 btls)
12. La Conseillante (case)
13. L'If (3 btls)
14. View Chateau Certan (case)

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#5 Post by Amit K » June 21st, 2019, 11:53 pm

Montrose -6
Calon segur -6
Dame de Montrose-12
Meyney -12
Phelan -6
Pontet Canet -6
Pichon Baron -6
Lynch bages -6
Grand Puy Lacoste -12
Réserve comtesse -6
Labegorce -6
D’Issan -6
Domain chev -6
Smith Haut Lafitte-6
Leoville Barton -12
Beausejour Becot-6
Canon -6
Clinet -6
Feytit clinet-6
Dalem-6
Les cruzelles-6
K o h l i

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#6 Post by Jim F » June 22nd, 2019, 4:47 am

Total of 1 mixed case, 2 bottles each, Calon Segur, P. Lalande, Ducru, Beychevelle, Rauzan Segla, Beau-sejour Becot. Consider it a curiosity purchase for comparison purposes.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#7 Post by Jeff Vaughan » June 22nd, 2019, 6:52 am

I’m getting too old, so I swore I wasn’t going to buy any. But then I got weak and bought 6 Leoville Barton. At my age (51) it makes more sense to buy older vintages.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#8 Post by A S K R O B A C K » June 22nd, 2019, 8:30 am

Gray G wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 4:37 pm
none and never will again

cheers
this
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#9 Post by NickRut » June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am

How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#10 Post by Alan Eden » June 22nd, 2019, 8:39 am

NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am
How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
If you listen to some people here about 2048
There are 10 kinds of people in the world, those that understand binary and those that don't

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#11 Post by NickRut » June 22nd, 2019, 8:52 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:39 am
NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am
How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
If you listen to some people here about 2048
Lol... perfect. Looks like I’ll never get into Bordeaux futures. Far too impatient.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#12 Post by Neal.Mollen » June 22nd, 2019, 9:07 am

NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am
How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
Depends on the vintage and to a degree the specific wines. Most if not all 1999, 2001, and 2004 wines are drinking really nicely now. From what I read, the 2009s are likely to drink early -- maybe 507 years from now? As for 2005, most 2000s, and 2010s? Be patient
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#13 Post by Russell Faulkner » June 22nd, 2019, 9:35 am

None. I bought six bottles of VCC in 2012. Apart from a bottle of Petrus in 2010 that’s it for the decade.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#14 Post by Jeff Leve » June 22nd, 2019, 9:39 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:39 am
NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am
How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
If you listen to some people here about 2048
But if you listen to people that have actually tasted the wine, the answer would be far more nuanced and realistic.

There are no wines from 2018 that need 30 years of age. ZERO!

Maturity depends on the specific wine and what you level of age you enjoy drinking your wine.

2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot.

Lower end wines, cru bourgeois and the best Bordeaux superior will be great starting at 5 years of age. Yes, some of the best in those categories will continue improving, but that’s a good starting point.

Lesser value wines can be popped in release or with a year or 2 of age.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#15 Post by NickRut » June 22nd, 2019, 9:57 am

Thank you guys for the insight. Looks like 18 may be a good first year to get into Bordeaux futures. I typically drink big napa cabs but can see things shifting.
Rutkowski

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#16 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 22nd, 2019, 10:23 am

NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 9:57 am
Thank you guys for the insight. Looks like 18 may be a good first year to get into Bordeaux futures. I typically drink big napa cabs but can see things shifting.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#17 Post by YLee » June 22nd, 2019, 11:36 am

Im not going in 2018 futures much.
Bought case of laroque due to Jeff's reco.
Case of LLC for $150/bttle.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#18 Post by Bengera A » June 22nd, 2019, 11:44 am

Jeff Leve wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 9:39 am
Alan Eden wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:39 am
NickRut wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:36 am
How soon will it make sense to drink 2018 Bordeaux?
If you listen to some people here about 2048
But if you listen to people that have actually tasted the wine, the answer would be far more nuanced and realistic.

There are no wines from 2018 that need 30 years of age. ZERO!

Maturity depends on the specific wine and what you level of age you enjoy drinking your wine.

2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot.

Lower end wines, cru bourgeois and the best Bordeaux superior will be great starting at 5 years of age. Yes, some of the best in those categories will continue improving, but that’s a good starting point.

Lesser value wines can be popped in release or with a year or 2 of age.

Jeff, I would love to know what you bought. I've read your reviews but would appreciate knowing what you pulled the trigger on -- however I can also appreciate if you'd rather not post it publicly.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#19 Post by Brian Thorne » June 22nd, 2019, 12:41 pm

Nothing. But I have picked up quite a few 09, 15, 16 at or below their EP pricing.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#20 Post by Adam Levyn » June 22nd, 2019, 12:41 pm

YLee - how did you find LLC at $150 a bottle? I see it more like $250 a bottle?

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#21 Post by Mark Golodetz » June 22nd, 2019, 1:21 pm

Jeff Leve wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 9:39 am


But if you listen to people that have actually tasted the wine, the answer would be far more nuanced and realistic.

There are no wines from 2018 that need 30 years of age. ZERO!

Maturity depends on the specific wine and what you level of age you enjoy drinking your wine.

2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot.

Lower end wines, cru bourgeois and the best Bordeaux superior will be great starting at 5 years of age. Yes, some of the best in those categories will continue improving, but that’s a good starting point.

Lesser value wines can be popped in release or with a year or 2 of age.

I am curious Jeff, what characteristics of this vintage makes you believe that the best wines will be ready in ten years? I hear there is plenty of acidity, and tannins while ripe, still retain enough structure for the long term. The only vintage I can think of that I would dream of trying at ten years is 2007, a light year lacking in concentration. Nothing I have read or heard suggests that this vintage is light and lacking in concentration.

You are absolutely right when you say maturity depends on the drinker, but even allowing for differing tastes, I have NEVER come across a Bordeaux from a serious vintage that would be ready in ten years. You have indeed tasted the wines; what makes you think they could possibly be ready in 2029?
Last edited by Mark Golodetz on June 22nd, 2019, 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#22 Post by HMechbal » June 22nd, 2019, 2:35 pm

First future campaign, still at the age (29) it makes sense to buy young Bordeaux and I got caught up in the game-like nature of daily releases... also went for some better priced 2014 wines (GPL mainly) but wanted to get a little bit of everything from 2018. Everything in 75cl


6x Laroque
4x Durfort Vivens
3x Calon Segur
3x Malescot St Exupery
3x Meyney
2x Rauzan Segla
2x Carmes HB
2x GPL
2x Berliquet
2x Larcis Ducasse
2x Pedesclaux
2x Chevalier (red)
2x Reserve de la comtesse
1x Gloria
1x St Pierre (St Julien)
1x Pavie Macquin

Was looking for more Rauzan Segla and Carmes HB (maybe some Calon also) but it is sold out or re-priced higher everywhere in France. I've already received emails from the main negociant I bought from to suggest adding some Calon (84EUR initially) at 114EUR.
Might add some Larcis and Pavie Macquin.
I also think I pulled the trigger on a couple of wines that I would have been able to easily find at the same price in 2021 also, but that's ok.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#23 Post by Jeff Leve » June 22nd, 2019, 5:20 pm

Bengera A wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 11:44 am
Jeff Leve wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 9:39 am
Alan Eden wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 8:39 am


If you listen to some people here about 2048
But if you listen to people that have actually tasted the wine, the answer would be far more nuanced and realistic.

There are no wines from 2018 that need 30 years of age. ZERO!

Maturity depends on the specific wine and what you level of age you enjoy drinking your wine.

2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot.

Lower end wines, cru bourgeois and the best Bordeaux superior will be great starting at 5 years of age. Yes, some of the best in those categories will continue improving, but that’s a good starting point.

Lesser value wines can be popped in release or with a year or 2 of age.

Jeff, I would love to know what you bought. I've read your reviews but would appreciate knowing what you pulled the trigger on -- however I can also appreciate if you'd rather not post it publicly.
So far, I haven’t bought any 2018 yet. But when I do, (and I will) I’ll focus on Pomerol, a few St. Emilion and Les Carmes Haut Brion.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#24 Post by Jeff Leve » June 22nd, 2019, 5:29 pm

Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 1:21 pm
Jeff Leve wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 9:39 am


But if you listen to people that have actually tasted the wine, the answer would be far more nuanced and realistic.

There are no wines from 2018 that need 30 years of age. ZERO!

Maturity depends on the specific wine and what you level of age you enjoy drinking your wine.

2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot.

Lower end wines, cru bourgeois and the best Bordeaux superior will be great starting at 5 years of age. Yes, some of the best in those categories will continue improving, but that’s a good starting point.

Lesser value wines can be popped in release or with a year or 2 of age.

I am curious Jeff, what characteristics of this vintage makes you believe that the best wines will be ready in ten years? I hear there is plenty of acidity, and tannins while ripe, still retain enough structure for the long term. The only vintage I can think of that I would dream of trying at ten years is 2007, a light year lacking in concentration. Nothing I have read or heard suggests that this vintage is light and lacking in concentration.

You are absolutely right when you say maturity depends on the drinker, but even allowing for differing tastes, I have NEVER come across a Bordeaux from a serious vintage that would be ready in ten years. You have indeed tasted the wines; what makes you think they could possibly be ready in 2029?
Mark, that’s not exactly what I said.

That being said, 2018 is similar in texture and style to 2009. The tannins are ripe, soft and provide an opulent experience.

To quote me... “2018 is an opulent forward vintage, so most upper-end wines be delicious to drink between 10-15 years of age. Yes, they’ll continue improving. But that’s the start of the sweet spot”

Perhaps you saw my comment to a poster on 2018 Montrose that noted I felt that wine would be interesting to start drinking at 20. The same for LLC, COS, the Frost Growths, Lynch Bages and Pichon Baron for example.

But most upper level 2018 IMO will be just great starting at 10-15 years of age. Of course they won’t be at peak, but they’ll be exciting, sensual wine tasting experiences with secondary nuances shining through.

Lesser wines will be fun to drink at an even younger age.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#25 Post by C Wagner » June 22nd, 2019, 5:51 pm

My first foray into BDX futures. My wife and I were married in 2018 so I figured I should secure some early via futures. Will get the rest when they hit the market in 2021.

Would anyone have any advice for what they did/wished they’d done for anniversary wine? I plan to grab some 18’s from other regions and also fill in over time, but as 18 is special I’d love to secure now. I’ve definitely restrained myself from going too deep just yet. I’m also definitely not as experienced in BDX as many of you.

Thus far I’ve secured:

Calon Segur (1)
Carmes Haut Brion (1)
Chevalier (2)
Clinet (2)
Duhart Milon Rothschild (1)
LLC (1)
Cos (1)
Clos du Marquis (1)
Marquis de Calon (2)
Beau Sejour Becot (1 magnum)
Last edited by C Wagner on June 22nd, 2019, 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#26 Post by GregT » June 22nd, 2019, 5:54 pm

Thank you guys for the insight. Looks like 18 may be a good first year to get into Bordeaux futures. I typically drink big napa cabs but can see things shifting.
Not sure that makes a lot of sense. Why would you get into futures and what does Napa have to do with it? Bordeaux is much bigger and there's a lot more wine at all price points. Some of them are very much Napa-like, if by that you mean big and ripe, others not so much. But even Napa isn't all Napa-like!

Anyhow, by buying futures you tie your money up for a few years. Why not just buy when the wines come out? It used to be the case that you could save a few bucks, but these days you run the risk of not ever getting your wine if you buy from someone who goes belly-up or just scams you. I don't think provenance is such a game-changer either - if you buy from a retailer, you'll be getting the same provenance that you'd get from that retailer who bought the wines to sell. Rather than sail into buying futures, I'd try a bunch of wine to figure out what, if anything, you like and may prefer to Napa.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#27 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 22nd, 2019, 6:00 pm

GregT wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 5:54 pm
Thank you guys for the insight. Looks like 18 may be a good first year to get into Bordeaux futures. I typically drink big napa cabs but can see things shifting.
Not sure that makes a lot of sense. Why would you get into futures and what does Napa have to do with it? Bordeaux is much bigger and there's a lot more wine at all price points. Some of them are very much Napa-like, if by that you mean big and ripe, others not so much. But even Napa isn't all Napa-like!

Anyhow, by buying futures you tie your money up for a few years. Why not just buy when the wines come out? It used to be the case that you could save a few bucks, but these days you run the risk of not ever getting your wine if you buy from someone who goes belly-up or just scams you. I don't think provenance is such a game-changer either - if you buy from a retailer, you'll be getting the same provenance that you'd get from that retailer who bought the wines to sell. Rather than sail into buying futures, I'd try a bunch of wine to figure out what, if anything, you like and may prefer to Napa.
Or, why not just buy 2016s?

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#28 Post by Jeff Leve » June 22nd, 2019, 6:12 pm

Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 6:00 pm
Or, why not just buy 2016s?
Very different style of wine

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#29 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 22nd, 2019, 6:18 pm

They both appear critically acclaimed. You scored the 16 and 18 Les Carmes the same. Etc.

My comment was based on this being a newbie into Bordeaux. If not, then my post has less merit, but Greg’s advice is solid.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#30 Post by Vikrant Rachakonda » June 23rd, 2019, 6:16 am

None. Blew my spending money on 2016 (great vintage and son’s birth year).

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#31 Post by Jeff Leve » June 23rd, 2019, 6:45 am

Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 22nd, 2019, 6:18 pm
They both appear critically acclaimed. You scored the 16 and 18 Les Carmes the same. Etc.

My comment was based on this being a newbie into Bordeaux. If not, then my post has less merit, but Greg’s advice is solid.
But as I said, it’s the style of 2018 that makes it worth buying. And yes, my comment was for all wine buyers, not just the OP.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#32 Post by D@vid Bu3ker » June 23rd, 2019, 7:06 am

I bought a case of Lanessan, but other than that I am finding 2014 and 2015 versions of what I like for lower prices than 2018 futures...before retail case discounts.

So I would buy more futures why?
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#33 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 23rd, 2019, 8:11 am

My local retailer just got in a big chunk of fine Bordeaux from 2000-2005, including Lalande, Montrose and Ducru. I can buy the 2005 Lalande for $20 less than 2018 futures and only $20 more than 2017. No brainer right there. The 2000 Montrose is only $20 more than the 2016. The 2001 Montrose is less that 2015 and 2018. Another no brainer.

I’m sure Leve will chime in that these new vintages are simply better - which we can all debate - but let’s be practical here: You are getting the same Chateaux with 13-18 years of maturity on them, and frankly, would you rather drink a mature 95 point wine or a baby fresh 97 point wine? Or wait 18 years to see? Another no brainer to me.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#34 Post by D@vid Bu3ker » June 23rd, 2019, 8:25 am

2 points is way less than the margin of error!
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#35 Post by DanielP » June 23rd, 2019, 8:45 am

Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 23rd, 2019, 8:11 am
My local retailer just got in a big chunk of fine Bordeaux from 2000-2005, including Lalande, Montrose and Ducru. I can buy the 2005 Lalande for $20 less than 2018 futures and only $20 more than 2017. No brainer right there. The 2000 Montrose is only $20 more than the 2016. The 2001 Montrose is less that 2015 and 2018. Another no brainer.
That means that the 2018 futures are working - make expensive back vintages seem "cheap" by comparison.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#36 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 23rd, 2019, 8:56 am

DanielP wrote:
June 23rd, 2019, 8:45 am
Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 23rd, 2019, 8:11 am
My local retailer just got in a big chunk of fine Bordeaux from 2000-2005, including Lalande, Montrose and Ducru. I can buy the 2005 Lalande for $20 less than 2018 futures and only $20 more than 2017. No brainer right there. The 2000 Montrose is only $20 more than the 2016. The 2001 Montrose is less that 2015 and 2018. Another no brainer.
That means that the 2018 futures are working - make expensive back vintages seem "cheap" by comparison.
Perhaps. But, I can more readily buy that 2000 Montrose today than I could 18 years ago. Easy decision for me.

The 2001 vintage, on the other hand, was not expensive back then. Nor was 2004.

"@lf3rt was clearly raised in an outhouse in the Loire. . . ."

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Eric Egan
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#37 Post by Eric Egan » June 23rd, 2019, 9:16 am

Nothing. I'm sure there are some decent wines but the styles of most chateaux are now way too modern for me. I would also seriously worry that the most of the high-alcohol early drinking wines won't hold together for the long haul - if there's any doubt about that I'm out. Classic vintages is still cheaper so it's a no brainer really.

Bought a bunch of 2018 but nothing from Bordeaux for a few years now, despite it making up c. 40% of my cellar.
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Paul McCourt
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#38 Post by Paul McCourt » June 23rd, 2019, 9:26 am

Clinet
SHL
Gazin
Pape Clem
Larcis Ducasse
La Gaffeliere
Troplong
Figeac
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#39 Post by Richard Albert » June 23rd, 2019, 9:39 am

None. Plenty in the cellar from the era when pricing was cost related and marked up fairly with additional value in futures, not today's value pricing futures based on perception.

The first majorly hyped vintage saw 1982 First Growths at $500-$600 per case. I suggest pause to reflect, backfill like crazy and wait for the market to correct, possibly with the the upcoming recession. Anyone know about back vintage inventories still at the chateaux? Some has been dumped in auctions. Curious.

Old guy perspective: every vintage is an annual game of market manipulation. How many potential 100 pointers this vintage? Really?
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Mark Golodetz
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#40 Post by Mark Golodetz » June 23rd, 2019, 10:31 am

A few three packs of magnums:
Palmer
Ducru
LLC
Pichon Lalande
Lafite
VCC
Figeac

and a single magnum of Lafleur.
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I could agree with you, but then we both would be wrong.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#41 Post by Paul McCourt » June 23rd, 2019, 11:21 am

Richard Albert wrote:
June 23rd, 2019, 9:39 am
None. Plenty in the cellar from the era when pricing was cost related and marked up fairly with additional value in futures, not today's value pricing futures based on perception.

The first majorly hyped vintage saw 1982 First Growths at $500-$600 per case. I suggest pause to reflect, backfill like crazy and wait for the market to correct, possibly with the the upcoming recession. Anyone know about back vintage inventories still at the chateaux? Some has been dumped in auctions. Curious.

Old guy perspective: every vintage is an annual game of market manipulation. How many potential 100 pointers this vintage? Really?
Speaking for myself, I am unconcerned about what the prices were on long past vintages, nor do I consider much whether futures are a good deal or not a good deal. I simply buy them to get what I want in the sizes I want in (usually) one neat package and am done.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#42 Post by Tom Reddick » June 23rd, 2019, 9:52 pm

In the end I stuck with a case each of Leoville Barton and Palmer. I may look into others- but I need to taste them first.

While the talk around 2018 is exciting, I still have very unpleasant memories of 2003. These edgier vintages can go in a lot of directions, and after the 09/10 pricing corrections at the top, a very slowly softening secondary market which I think is going to last a good long while (though not crash), and very strong performances in 2014-2016, I just do not see the pricing risk in waiting for these wines to get released. And so I only bought the two things I knew I wanted no matter what, and at a price that I think will prove modestly favorable to where things will stand at release.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#43 Post by David Glasser » June 24th, 2019, 6:30 am

None. Too old. Too much in the cellar.
If I outlive the actuarial predictions and run out, I’ll start backfilling in my 90s.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#44 Post by Justin Wittkopf » June 24th, 2019, 8:32 am

12 bottle cases of Les Carmes Haut Brion and Rauzan-Segla.

6 bottle cases of LLC, Canon, Pichon Lalande, L’Eglise Clinet, Palmer, Montrose.

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#45 Post by Richard Albert » June 24th, 2019, 10:57 am

Paul,
It appears you missed my comments were First Growth oriented. Your purchase list did not include any in 2018, my very specific point.
First Growths were attainable by so many more folks at $500-$600 a case as opposed to $9000 today.
I was able to buy most of the Big Eight in 1982 and three fav FG in 1986, up to six each. Lafite and Ausone only 2018 bigggies listed above.
This example is my point, if I were buying today this is the obvious dissonance, max manipulation, valuations based on perception, status, etc., not cost.
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#46 Post by Jeff Leve » June 24th, 2019, 11:16 am

Richard Albert wrote:
June 24th, 2019, 10:57 am

I was able to buy most of the Big Eight in 1982 and three fav FG in 1986, up to six each.
How are prices from almost 40 years ago relevant?

if I were buying today this is the obvious dissonance, max manipulation, valuations based on perception, status, etc., not cost

I do not follow your point. Are you saying cost of production should factor into pricing? How is that relevant for any good or service?

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#47 Post by Richard Albert » June 24th, 2019, 2:31 pm

1982 Ch. Lynch Bages sold for $13 on release
2016 Ch. Lynch Bages sold for $154 on release or 11.85 times more per bottle

1982 Mouton Rothschild sold for $38 on release
2016 Mouton Rothschild sold for $652 on release or 17.1 times more per bottle

1982 Haut Brion sold for $38 per bottle on release
2016 Haut Brion sold for $634 per bottle or 16.68 times more per bottle

1982 Lafite sold for $41 on release
2016 lafite sold for $801 on release or 19.54 times more per bottle

1982 Petrus sold for $50 on release
2016 Petrus sold for $3225 per bottle or 64.5 times more per bottle


How businesses operate:
Mark up =cost + overhead + profit
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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#48 Post by Jeff Leve » June 24th, 2019, 5:11 pm

Richard Albert wrote:
June 24th, 2019, 2:31 pm
1982 Ch. Lynch Bages sold for $13 on release
2016 Ch. Lynch Bages sold for $154 on release or 11.85 times more per bottle

1982 Mouton Rothschild sold for $38 on release
2016 Mouton Rothschild sold for $652 on release or 17.1 times more per bottle

1982 Haut Brion sold for $38 per bottle on release
2016 Haut Brion sold for $634 per bottle or 16.68 times more per bottle

1982 Lafite sold for $41 on release
2016 lafite sold for $801 on release or 19.54 times more per bottle

1982 Petrus sold for $50 on release
2016 Petrus sold for $3225 per bottle or 64.5 times more per bottle


How businesses operate:
Mark up =cost + overhead + profit
Dow Jones 1100 when 82 was offered.
Dow Jones 27000 today

Neither the cost of wine in 1983 or the value of the Dow matters. That is ancient history. Many of the people on this board were not even born when 1982 BDX was offered. And that does not even take into consideration the value of 82 BDX today.


How businesses operate:
Mark up =cost + overhead + profit


That has ZERO basis in reality. Prices are set by supply and demand when it comes to luxury goods. What do you think it costs to produce clothing, handbags, watches, soap, shoes, perfume or an Iphone? What about art? Does a painter add up his costs of paints, canvas etc?

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#49 Post by Justin Wittkopf » June 24th, 2019, 6:34 pm

[pillow-fight.gif]

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Re: 2018 Bordeaux Futures - What Did Everyone Buy?

#50 Post by DanielP » June 24th, 2019, 7:04 pm

Jeff Leve wrote:
June 24th, 2019, 5:11 pm
That has ZERO basis in reality. Prices are set by supply and demand when it comes to luxury goods.
I actually don't think the pricing is set by typical supply and consumer demand, thanks to the negociant system. Certainly, a lot of the bigger name chateaux are holding back more stock while at the same time, you read reports of ever-increasing stock building up in negociant inventory. Maybe in the long-term it will work out for both chateau and negociant, but that still remains to be seen. I'm somewhat skeptical myself.
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