Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

Tasting notes, varietals, grapes - anything related to wine
Message
Author
Alex A
Posts: 45
Joined: September 5th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#1 Post by Alex A » June 20th, 2019, 5:39 pm

Are the auctions slowing down? I think it's the first time I'm seeing the high-ends selling at low estimate or mid range. Some stuff even went below low estimate. Last year August/September was crazy, I remember people easily hitting the top estimate ranges...

Thoughts?
Alex Attarian

pnitze
Posts: 68
Joined: February 13th, 2012, 7:32 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#2 Post by pnitze » June 20th, 2019, 5:50 pm

Acker also soft today. The German collection went high, as expected due to rarity and provenance. But everything else was notably soft. Not a firesale, but soft. Not sure what to make of it. Need more data points before calling a trend.
P@ul N!tze

User avatar
jordan whitehead
Posts: 4422
Joined: February 12th, 2009, 4:59 pm
Location: Northbrook, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#3 Post by jordan whitehead » June 20th, 2019, 5:51 pm

sales tax
www.annaswish.org

User avatar
c fu
Moderator
<dfn>Moderator</dfn>
Posts: 30820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:26 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#4 Post by c fu » June 20th, 2019, 5:52 pm

Alex A wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:39 pm
Are the auctions slowing down? I think it's the first time I'm seeing the high-ends selling at low estimate or mid range. Some stuff even went below low estimate. Last year August/September was crazy, I remember people easily hitting the top estimate ranges...

Thoughts?
definitely noticed that. Outside of a few key burgundy lots, most went low estimate to almost mid.
Ch@rlie F|_|
"Roulot is Roulot"©

Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/clayfu.wine

Alex A
Posts: 45
Joined: September 5th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#5 Post by Alex A » June 20th, 2019, 6:10 pm

Glad to know I'm not seeing things 😁
Alex Attarian

Alex A
Posts: 45
Joined: September 5th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#6 Post by Alex A » June 20th, 2019, 6:11 pm

jordan whitehead wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:51 pm
sales tax
Good observation, should compare to other auctions and see what's happening there. HDH started hitting people in CA with sales tax right?
Alex Attarian

User avatar
jordan whitehead
Posts: 4422
Joined: February 12th, 2009, 4:59 pm
Location: Northbrook, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#7 Post by jordan whitehead » June 20th, 2019, 6:12 pm

Alex A wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 6:11 pm
jordan whitehead wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:51 pm
sales tax
Good observation, should compare to other auctions and see what's happening there. HDH started hitting people in CA with sales tax right?
started hitting everyone
www.annaswish.org

Hao Lu
Posts: 55
Joined: October 15th, 2015, 5:02 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#8 Post by Hao Lu » June 20th, 2019, 6:13 pm

Recent Zachys auctions were soft too.

crickey
Posts: 403
Joined: August 3rd, 2009, 2:59 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#9 Post by crickey » June 20th, 2019, 6:17 pm

Wasn't soft on the stuff I was bidding on. Maybe there isn't a huge market for 24 x 375ml bottles of Caymus.
Chri$ Ri¢k€y

User avatar
Glen Gold
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 684
Joined: February 25th, 2014, 8:53 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#10 Post by Glen Gold » June 20th, 2019, 6:27 pm

There are also a LOT of auctions this week.
Avatar = Jeremy from Peep Show.

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 6041
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#11 Post by Markus S » June 20th, 2019, 6:34 pm

Summer. People on vacation. Ignore.
$ _ € ® e . k @

User avatar
c fu
Moderator
<dfn>Moderator</dfn>
Posts: 30820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:26 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#12 Post by c fu » June 20th, 2019, 6:57 pm

Could just be thursdays too!
Ch@rlie F|_|
"Roulot is Roulot"©

Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/clayfu.wine

User avatar
Robert.A.Jr.
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 21271
Joined: January 28th, 2010, 5:03 am
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#13 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 20th, 2019, 7:01 pm

Root day?

"@lf3rt was clearly raised in an outhouse in the Loire. . . ."

Kenny H (circa 2015)

User avatar
TBurklow
Posts: 358
Joined: May 13th, 2013, 8:40 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#14 Post by TBurklow » June 20th, 2019, 7:12 pm

c fu wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 6:57 pm
Could just be thursdays too!
What I was thinking, too.
T ¥ £ € R

Alex A
Posts: 45
Joined: September 5th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#15 Post by Alex A » June 20th, 2019, 8:03 pm

Alright, problem solved everybody!

It's Thursday and root day! champagne.gif
Alex Attarian

User avatar
mdavis
Posts: 231
Joined: January 1st, 2010, 3:44 pm
Location: Pacific NW

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#16 Post by mdavis » June 20th, 2019, 8:13 pm

c fu wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:52 pm
Alex A wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:39 pm
Are the auctions slowing down? I think it's the first time I'm seeing the high-ends selling at low estimate or mid range. Some stuff even went below low estimate. Last year August/September was crazy, I remember people easily hitting the top estimate ranges...

Thoughts?
definitely noticed that. Outside of a few key burgundy lots, most went low estimate to almost mid.
Oh, come on, Fu went for the San Soufre, which went for like 1.5X high.

-mark
m=m.a.r.k

User avatar
c fu
Moderator
<dfn>Moderator</dfn>
Posts: 30820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:26 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#17 Post by c fu » June 20th, 2019, 8:29 pm

mdavis wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 8:13 pm
c fu wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:52 pm
Alex A wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:39 pm
Are the auctions slowing down? I think it's the first time I'm seeing the high-ends selling at low estimate or mid range. Some stuff even went below low estimate. Last year August/September was crazy, I remember people easily hitting the top estimate ranges...

Thoughts?
definitely noticed that. Outside of a few key burgundy lots, most went low estimate to almost mid.
Oh, come on, Fu went for the San Soufre, which went for like 1.5X high.

-mark
teehee
Ch@rlie F|_|
"Roulot is Roulot"©

Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/clayfu.wine

User avatar
alan weinberg
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 11792
Joined: April 25th, 2009, 1:23 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#18 Post by alan weinberg » June 20th, 2019, 8:38 pm

usually parallels the stock market which is booming.

Hao Lu
Posts: 55
Joined: October 15th, 2015, 5:02 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#19 Post by Hao Lu » June 20th, 2019, 8:41 pm

alan weinberg wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 8:38 pm
usually parallels the stock market which is booming.
good observation

User avatar
Mark Y
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 7179
Joined: May 1st, 2009, 11:19 am
Location: Bellevue, WA

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#20 Post by Mark Y » June 20th, 2019, 9:43 pm

2 bottles of 2016 Liger Belair Romanee went for 11K before premium/tax. that's almost $7K per bottle all in.
Y.e.

User avatar
Pat Esposito
Posts: 146
Joined: March 13th, 2011, 7:12 pm
Location: NE Ohio

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#21 Post by Pat Esposito » June 21st, 2019, 6:49 am

Glad to see it...you all can stay away from the Salon lots today champagne.gif

User avatar
Victor Hong
Posts: 15022
Joined: May 30th, 2009, 1:34 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#22 Post by Victor Hong » June 21st, 2019, 7:00 am

Must be [grin.gif].
As for how the lesser half is forced to live, I just bought some 1994 and 1995 California reds for around $12 per bottle. pileon
WineHunter.

User avatar
George Hejna
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 5163
Joined: April 21st, 2009, 3:36 pm
Location: Batavia, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#23 Post by George Hejna » June 21st, 2019, 7:14 am

Was at the HDH auction yesterday. Saw some passed lots on 82 BDX. Seemed to me that the estimates were higher but I am no expert on BDX. Burgundy continued to sell well.

Lots of repeat BDX lots today (Friday). Boring...... neener

George

User avatar
Sh@n A
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1026
Joined: July 9th, 2018, 8:21 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#24 Post by Sh@n A » June 21st, 2019, 7:49 am

I bid on two lots that I want to own, but not actually buy. I bid the low estimate assuming I won't get hit. Now I wonder if I will get hit on the lesser lot...
/ @ g r @ \

User avatar
Ethan Abraham
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1285
Joined: November 16th, 2010, 10:34 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#25 Post by Ethan Abraham » June 21st, 2019, 7:53 am

2016 bdx going for well below EP pricing.

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 6041
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#26 Post by Markus S » June 21st, 2019, 8:00 am

Sh@n A wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 7:49 am
I bid on two lots that I want to own, but not actually buy.
So...dating the wines then? [highfive.gif]
$ _ € ® e . k @

Jon Chan
Posts: 86
Joined: December 9th, 2015, 9:39 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#27 Post by Jon Chan » June 21st, 2019, 8:16 am

Soft. Most of the DRC in the HK Acker auction sold at the low estimate.

Mike J ewesson
Posts: 155
Joined: February 17th, 2009, 9:25 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#28 Post by Mike J ewesson » June 21st, 2019, 8:17 am

Watching now. Thought prices were pretty solid on recent vintage BDX, although the multiple lots of 2016 BDX generally sold for around EP prices. Picked up a case of 2009 Ducru Beau for $180/btl (PLUS 10% tax). I was stunned that I won. Always a chance to pickup a good deal if you are patient.

User avatar
Ethan Abraham
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1285
Joined: November 16th, 2010, 10:34 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#29 Post by Ethan Abraham » June 21st, 2019, 8:23 am

Mouton under 600, Margaux under 500, PLL for 150....I think those all 10% below ep?

User avatar
Sh@n A
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1026
Joined: July 9th, 2018, 8:21 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#30 Post by Sh@n A » June 21st, 2019, 8:27 am

I thought the mouton went for 2900 per 6, so 483. Plus roughly 30 percent fees/tax no? So 625 a bottle or so? Isn't that around retail is today?
/ @ g r @ \

User avatar
Ethan Abraham
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1285
Joined: November 16th, 2010, 10:34 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#31 Post by Ethan Abraham » June 21st, 2019, 8:30 am

I'm ignoring tax as pretty much all retailers charge tax these days. But yes, reasonable point that possibly people were not paying tax on EP purchases made 2 years ago.

User avatar
John Danza
Posts: 1452
Joined: December 4th, 2009, 12:23 pm
Location: Chicagoland

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#32 Post by John Danza » June 21st, 2019, 8:40 am

It's the Laffer Curve in action. People are going to pay what they want to pay. If the auction house wants to collect a higher buyers premium, or needs to add in sales taxes, people will find those funds by bidding less on the items.
John Danza

Mike J ewesson
Posts: 155
Joined: February 17th, 2009, 9:25 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#33 Post by Mike J ewesson » June 21st, 2019, 8:41 am

Ethan Abraham wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 8:23 am
Mouton under 600, Margaux under 500, PLL for 150....I think those all 10% below ep?
Wasn't watching first growths, but PLL was $160 EP and the lots seemed to be selling for between $150 and $170.

2015 Figeac b/w $150 and $180 ($140 EP)
2016 Cos b/w $180 and $220 ($150 EP)
2016 LLC b/w $220 and $260 ($235 EP)
2016 Montrose b/w $180 and $200 (EP $150)

2016 Pape Clement did poorly (one sold at $110, one sold at $85 (EP Pricing) and the rest passed)
2016 LMHB (I saw that at least one didn't sell for $380...EP $430)
2016 Pontet Canet (some sold at $150, but some passed at that price...EP price $140)

BTW, two more lots of 2009 Ducru Beau coming up later today or tomorrow.

User avatar
Cody L
Posts: 39
Joined: February 24th, 2015, 1:39 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#34 Post by Cody L » June 21st, 2019, 8:41 am

Alex A wrote:
June 20th, 2019, 5:39 pm
Are the auctions slowing down? I think it's the first time I'm seeing the high-ends selling at low estimate or mid range. Some stuff even went below low estimate. Last year August/September was crazy, I remember people easily hitting the top estimate ranges...

Thoughts?
I think the auction market as a whole has hit a plateau or a stall if you will, and I think there is a lot more supply in the auctions nowadays it seems. But the usual summer recess is about here, so it'll be interesting to see what happens when things pickup in September.
Lyons
ITB

Nathan V.
Posts: 1502
Joined: November 9th, 2009, 11:47 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#35 Post by Nathan V. » June 21st, 2019, 8:57 am

Everything I was watching went within range. I bid low on a few lots and actually one two. One was well below range where I was the only bidder and the other right in the middle and I saved about 10% over retail after vig. I figure I'd pay sales tax anywhere.

Interesting that those 2016 Bordeaux all stayed at the low estimate.
ITB-ish.
V = V a n der g r i f t

User avatar
Neal.Mollen
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 33728
Joined: January 30th, 2009, 1:26 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#36 Post by Neal.Mollen » June 21st, 2019, 8:58 am

Auctions are dead at retail
I don't have to speak; she defends me

A drunkard's dream if I ever did see one

User avatar
jordan whitehead
Posts: 4422
Joined: February 12th, 2009, 4:59 pm
Location: Northbrook, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#37 Post by jordan whitehead » June 21st, 2019, 9:56 am

Ethan Abraham wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 7:53 am
2016 bdx going for well below EP pricing.
way too many repeat lots
www.annaswish.org

User avatar
jordan whitehead
Posts: 4422
Joined: February 12th, 2009, 4:59 pm
Location: Northbrook, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#38 Post by jordan whitehead » June 21st, 2019, 10:00 am

had no intention of bidding put threw in a dozen low balls las night, hoping to catch 1
www.annaswish.org

User avatar
c fu
Moderator
<dfn>Moderator</dfn>
Posts: 30820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:26 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#39 Post by c fu » June 21st, 2019, 10:09 am

jordan whitehead wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 9:56 am
Ethan Abraham wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 7:53 am
2016 bdx going for well below EP pricing.
way too many repeat lots
remember in december when there was 20 straight lots of a 2nd label bordeaux from the same vintage. lol
Ch@rlie F|_|
"Roulot is Roulot"©

Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/clayfu.wine

Jeff Leve
Posts: 1674
Joined: August 2nd, 2009, 4:17 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#40 Post by Jeff Leve » June 21st, 2019, 10:28 am

Mike J ewesson wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 8:41 am
Ethan Abraham wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 8:23 am
Mouton under 600, Margaux under 500, PLL for 150....I think those all 10% below ep?
Wasn't watching first growths, but PLL was $160 EP and the lots seemed to be selling for between $150 and $170.

2015 Figeac b/w $150 and $180 ($140 EP)
2016 Cos b/w $180 and $220 ($150 EP)
2016 LLC b/w $220 and $260 ($235 EP)
2016 Montrose b/w $180 and $200 (EP $150)

2016 Pape Clement did poorly (one sold at $110, one sold at $85 (EP Pricing) and the rest passed)
2016 LMHB (I saw that at least one didn't sell for $380...EP $430)
2016 Pontet Canet (some sold at $150, but some passed at that price...EP price $140)

BTW, two more lots of 2009 Ducru Beau coming up later today or tomorrow.
You also have to add the buyers commission to these prices as well, right?

User avatar
Ethan Abraham
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1285
Joined: November 16th, 2010, 10:34 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#41 Post by Ethan Abraham » June 21st, 2019, 10:33 am

PLL was 150 including commish before tax on the later lots. I think they sold about 40 cases. The 20% vig at hdh makes it very easy to calculate prices for full cases!

jeff ostroff
Posts: 67
Joined: June 6th, 2009, 9:17 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#42 Post by jeff ostroff » June 21st, 2019, 10:47 am

Acker has the most aggressive estimates in the industry. Burgundy with some age still selling well at all actions, especially the under card. All of my Burg bids at HDH were above low estimates and so far I have been shut out.

User avatar
c fu
Moderator
<dfn>Moderator</dfn>
Posts: 30820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:26 pm
Location: Pasadena

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#43 Post by c fu » June 21st, 2019, 10:49 am

jeff ostroff wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 10:47 am
Acker has the most aggressive estimates in the industry. Burgundy with some age still selling well at all actions, especially the under card. All of my Burg bids at HDH were above low estimates and so far I have been shut out.
Just watched 93 rousseau CSJ go $300 below low estimate. O_O
Ch@rlie F|_|
"Roulot is Roulot"©

Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/clayfu.wine

jeff ostroff
Posts: 67
Joined: June 6th, 2009, 9:17 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#44 Post by jeff ostroff » June 21st, 2019, 10:57 am

Vintage label adhered with tape discount/heavily corroded capsule. Trade will usually not touch.

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 6041
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#45 Post by Markus S » June 21st, 2019, 11:10 am

jeff ostroff wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 10:57 am
Vintage label adhered with tape discount/heavily corroded capsule. Trade will usually not touch.
Yes, Provenance matters! I wouldn't say it's low at all. And you folks are sounding a bit ridiculous. It's summer time (officially, today) and markets always go a little soft now. I'm sure if you hang around long enough, you'll find interesting wines.
$ _ € ® e . k @

User avatar
Victor Hong
Posts: 15022
Joined: May 30th, 2009, 1:34 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#46 Post by Victor Hong » June 21st, 2019, 11:32 am

Neal.Mollen wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 8:58 am
Auctions are dead at retail
Retail is dead at auctions.
WineHunter.

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 6041
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#47 Post by Markus S » June 21st, 2019, 11:38 am

Victor Hong wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 11:32 am
Neal.Mollen wrote:
June 21st, 2019, 8:58 am
Auctions are dead at retail
Retail is dead at auctions.
My auction is worse than the selection at my corner Binny's.
$ _ € ® e . k @

User avatar
Glen Gold
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 684
Joined: February 25th, 2014, 8:53 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#48 Post by Glen Gold » June 21st, 2019, 12:10 pm

I had a question about those multiple lots of 2015 and 2016 wines. Are those from the chateau? From negociants? Is this a pricing strategy? I've sometimes noticed much smaller domaines in Burgundy auctioning off multiple lots of wines, maybe 10 cases over the course of 2-3 auctions, from vintages that might just have 50 or 100 cases in total production. And I wondered if that somehow...establishes them in the US market? Avoids some kind of retail-based levies? What's the financial gain for this kind of activity?
Avatar = Jeremy from Peep Show.

User avatar
jordan whitehead
Posts: 4422
Joined: February 12th, 2009, 4:59 pm
Location: Northbrook, IL

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#49 Post by jordan whitehead » June 21st, 2019, 12:16 pm

didn't win anything but was only 1 increment away on some. Not the norm
www.annaswish.org

crickey
Posts: 403
Joined: August 3rd, 2009, 2:59 pm

Re: Auction slowdown? (HDH today)

#50 Post by crickey » June 21st, 2019, 1:21 pm

I didn't follow all the 2016 Bordeaux, but the 2016 Mouton went for a little less than $600/bottle (including the premium); a little more than what I paid two years ago, but less than the current market. I had my finger hovering, but I didn't swipe.

The 2016s were going for the low end of the estimates, but the estimates were silly. Why would anyone pay more than retail? It's not like the provenance is better.
Chri$ Ri¢k€y

Post Reply

Return to “Wine Talk”