The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

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Sc0tt F!tzger@ld
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The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#1 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 8th, 2019, 4:50 pm

After stating I’m done quoting articles, I’m back within 24 hours...sheesh.

Data quoted in this article could be dubious, but I found this interesting...
At the end of May 2014, the global average price for a bottle of wine was $35.50; this would rise to $36.80 by 2015 and $39 by the following year. 2017 saw a sharp rise, to $44.50, and that had risen to $48.50 by last May. It currently stands at $59.30, an increase of 60 percent.
60% across the board increase over 5 years...can that be right?

Full article here: https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2019/06 ... ine-prices

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Anton D
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#2 Post by Anton D » June 8th, 2019, 4:55 pm

The global average price for a bottle of wine is 59.30?

NO.
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Sc0tt F!tzger@ld
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#3 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 8th, 2019, 6:05 pm

Yeah, that didn’t seem right.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#4 Post by Dan Kravitz » June 8th, 2019, 6:13 pm

I don't know the "global average price for a bottle of wine", but I guarantee you that it is under five bucks (I'm talking about single bottles of 750ml). I don't believe anybody is calculating this, but my guess would be ~$2 - 3. Wine-Searcher doesn't list a single retailer in Wenzhou.

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Mark Golodetz
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#5 Post by Mark Golodetz » June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm

Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#6 Post by Wes Barton » June 8th, 2019, 6:33 pm

Trawling through Wine-Searcher's database...
So, it appears they're only looking at prices of wines listed on their site, as well as not factoring production volume. Then, is it even the lowest price listed or some average that includes the high-ball listings? I agree with Dan, the real average is probably in the $2-3 range.
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Sc0tt F!tzger@ld
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#7 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 8th, 2019, 6:33 pm

Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm
Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
Yeah, faulty math. I’m 0/3 on reposted articles. Need a thread on “improving wine journalism”.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#8 Post by TimF » June 8th, 2019, 6:45 pm

Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm
Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
And Yellowtail probably sells more wine in the US than France.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#9 Post by R. Frankel » June 8th, 2019, 6:52 pm

I saw this article too and thought these numbers made no sense. Terrible reporting.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#10 Post by PeterH » June 8th, 2019, 6:55 pm

It looks to me like all the figures mean is that winesearcher users are upgrading their wine choices.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#11 Post by Peter Valiquette » June 8th, 2019, 7:07 pm

Ya, I don’t think they’re accounting for volume.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#12 Post by Anton D » June 8th, 2019, 7:10 pm

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:33 pm
Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm
Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
Yeah, faulty math. I’m 0/3 on reposted articles. Need a thread on “improving wine journalism”.
It’s fun that you are posting so don’t stop!
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#13 Post by Alan Eden » June 8th, 2019, 9:43 pm

Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm
Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
Gallo sells around a billion bottles a year alone, huge effect on average price
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#14 Post by Sebastian C. » June 9th, 2019, 2:33 pm

Alan Eden wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 9:43 pm
Mark Golodetz wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:15 pm
Basically averaging bottle prices and ignoring consumption. A bottle of Romanee Conti has huge impact on pricing, while a high consumption wine like Yellowtail has mathematically very little.
Gallo sells around a billion bottles a year alone, huge effect on average price
Depends if it is a weighted average or if it is a simple average of each individual bottling.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#15 Post by Mark Golodetz » June 9th, 2019, 6:08 pm

It is obviously a simple average; weighted average would be closer to $10 I suspect.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#16 Post by Hao Lu » June 9th, 2019, 6:48 pm

Definitely not average by volume. Probably a simple average over labels/vineyard. If this is the case, it means the new labels cost more than before.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#17 Post by Howard Cooper » June 9th, 2019, 7:02 pm

So, if someone looks at a bottle of Romanee Conti (let us say at 1000 bottles sold in the US) at $20,000 a bottle and another mass produced wine (say selling two million bottles in the US) at say $3 a bottle, the average price of wine is $10,000 a bottle? Wow!!!!
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#18 Post by Mark Golodetz » June 9th, 2019, 8:42 pm

Or to put it another way, Romanee Conti raises the price of 10,000 wines by around a dollar.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#19 Post by Alan Eden » June 9th, 2019, 8:55 pm

Howard Cooper wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 7:02 pm
So, if someone looks at a bottle of Romanee Conti (let us say at 1000 bottles sold in the US) at $20,000 a bottle and another mass produced wine (say selling two million bottles in the US) at say $3 a bottle, the average price of wine is $10,000 a bottle? Wow!!!!
Need a new calculator Howard
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#20 Post by JG Salazar » June 10th, 2019, 10:42 am

Wes Barton wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:33 pm
Trawling through Wine-Searcher's database...
So, it appears they're only looking at prices of wines listed on their site, as well as not factoring production volume. Then, is it even the lowest price listed or some average that includes the high-ball listings? I agree with Dan, the real average is probably in the $2-3 range.
They need to circle back when Trader Joe's, Costco, and Jumbo start listing prices on Searcher.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#21 Post by ERPark » June 10th, 2019, 10:59 am

A bunch of you folks are burying the lede here........
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#22 Post by Jim Keyes » June 10th, 2019, 12:01 pm

While several of you have correctly pointed out the dubiousness of their math, I would suggest it is still spot on for this crowd. No one here is buy 3-dollar wines, while most if not everyone is buying cellarable wines--exactly what they surveyed.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#23 Post by Anton D » June 10th, 2019, 12:19 pm

This review says about 10 bucks....

https://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com ... le-average
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#24 Post by DanielP » June 10th, 2019, 12:30 pm

Does it really matter whether the wine-searcher database is truly representative of all wines, fine or not, sold on earth? The far more interesting consideration is the trend of increasing wine prices. Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

Maybe the W-S database itself is skewing toward more expensive wines over time, but I don't really have any reason to think that.

What would also be interesting would be to do paired analyses so that we could eliminate any variability wrt the W-S database. Also interesting would be to look at price changes by wine region. Certainly, classified Bordeaux wines have experienced major, persistent price increases since the 2013 vintage. Given the sheer volume and widespread distribution, I'd have to think Bordeaux would have an outsized contribution, say, compared to Muscadet.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#25 Post by Scott G r u n e r » June 10th, 2019, 1:02 pm

The average price of wines I bought today is $10
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#26 Post by Russell Faulkner » June 10th, 2019, 8:24 pm

It seems that much of Germany has been immune to these rises.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#27 Post by Jürgen Steinke » June 10th, 2019, 11:39 pm

The average price for a bottle of wine is about 2 Euros something in Germany. Based on the study of a reliable institute for consumer science. Only few people are ready to pay 10 Euros for a bottle of wine and even fewer idiots like us pay more than 50+.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#28 Post by Marcu$ Stanley » June 11th, 2019, 7:27 am

This is a good article and the statistics are revealing. Thanks for posting. People are wrong to dismiss it. The average price per bottle purchased globally, by all consumers, is completely irrelevant to people posting on this board. We are not ordinary consumers. It also irrelevant to most people who are sufficiently into wine to use Winesearcher. So let's stop talking about that statistic like it's some kind of clever point.

What the Winesearcher metric seems to be picking up a widespread increase in the price of mid to upper tier collectible wines. Have people seriously not noticed that in their own collecting? It's been very striking to me what has happened to the price of what might be called "semi- affordable" great wines over the past year or two. The very top tier wines haven't inflated as much -- if you look at the Livex indexes, which are heavily weighted to super-premium wines like first growths and top Grand Cru Burgundy, the inflation is there but not as extreme. But prices for back vintages of stuff like good premier cru Burgundy, good but not first growth classed Bordeaux, and formerly affordable Northern Rhones have been going up rapidly, to the point where many are becoming unaffordable on a middle class income.

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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#29 Post by Victor Hong » June 11th, 2019, 7:31 am

Most of WB posters are quite blessed, such that a wine maker or retailer might separately post about the inexorable rises of customer wealth and income, which largely finance the inexorable risk of wine prices. A tango requires two dancers.

Looking at things from the opposite perspective can be good, and self-shocking.
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#30 Post by Bdklein » June 11th, 2019, 7:32 am

But do we need OWC’s and mailers and cards??? All that drives up the cost (labor and materials, and inevitably the price).
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Re: The Inexorable Rise of Wine Prices

#31 Post by David Glasser » June 11th, 2019, 9:18 am

Marcu$ Stanley wrote:
June 11th, 2019, 7:27 am
This is a good article and the statistics are revealing. Thanks for posting. People are wrong to dismiss it. The average price per bottle purchased globally, by all consumers, is completely irrelevant to people posting on this board. We are not ordinary consumers. It also irrelevant to most people who are sufficiently into wine to use Winesearcher. So let's stop talking about that statistic like it's some kind of clever point.

What the Winesearcher metric seems to be picking up a widespread increase in the price of mid to upper tier collectible wines. Have people seriously not noticed that in their own collecting? It's been very striking to me what has happened to the price of what might be called "semi- affordable" great wines over the past year or two. The very top tier wines haven't inflated as much -- if you look at the Livex indexes, which are heavily weighted to super-premium wines like first growths and top Grand Cru Burgundy, the inflation is there but not as extreme. But prices for back vintages of stuff like good premier cru Burgundy, good but not first growth classed Bordeaux, and formerly affordable Northern Rhones have been going up rapidly, to the point where many are becoming unaffordable on a middle class income.
I agree with Marcu$. The data describe one way of estimating prices, and it’s accurate for what it is. It doesn’t describe what you or I or the "average" wine buyer buys, and it isn’t weighted by volume. So it may be unrelatable or unrealistic compared to our experience. But it does give one reasonable measure of broad price changes over time. And because the article does a decent job of describing the methodology, allowing us to critique it, it’s a pretty good job of reporting.

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