2018 Napa - What are the winemakers saying??

A tad premature I know, as most 2017 SV cabs are just now being bottled, but I can’t help wondering what the winemakers are thinking of their 2018 Napa is barrel. Does it compare to where 2013 was at this stage? I’ve now heard from a few wineries who strongly feel it could be their best vintage to date. Any thoughts please weight in over. [thankyou.gif]

Vintage of the century!

In all seriousness, I keep hearing it was good.

I think Roy Piper describes it on a recent thread.

This

This is like the 4th one in the last 5 years right [cheers.gif]

Vintages of the century are similar to warmest years in history…happening a lot more frequently of late.

Smoke taint has been a bigger problem than weather.

2018 had perfect growing conditions.

Should be much better than the 2017s (smoke in some areas, big heat spike everywhere) and maybe all of the 2000s.

So maybe vintage of the decade.

I’ve stopped buying most 2017s and will stock up on the 2018s.

Fify neener

It really has been one of best vintages since I have been in the industry.

Long and slow growing season allowed for great choices on picks and no big rushes based on rain or heat.

I’ve heard that quality is good but also huge crops. Could be premature, but it’s not unreasonable to expect supply/demand to favor the consumer.

when every vintage has been epic, do i need a cellar at all?

Not sure about your supply/demand statement, but I can agree that it was an easy vintage to farm, barrel samples are excellent, and yes, the crops in some places were huge.

Wanna bet regarding stable prices vs. increased prices? [snort.gif]

I’m not whining btw; business is business.

I’m hearing them saying, cha-ching, 25% increase to the market, 30% increase to Alan.

$250 is the new $175.

Don’t check my math. I’m a lawyer.

Well you cant expect poor winery owners to not increase prices, after all just because you get 30% extra free fruit the corks have gone up by 40 cents so we need an across the board $15 a bottle increase

Your contract is for a 1 acre block. You pay 18,000/T. If the vineyard produces 4T/Acre your fruit cost is $72,000 (don’t worry, I checked my math). If there is a 30% increase in crop size your fruit bill is now $93,600. You have to order 30% more glass, corks, capsules, labels, barrels (oops too late, you needed to do that 3-6 months ago), pay for 30% more tank space, 30% more winery labor, 30% more tax, 30% more cold storage space. Oh and now you have to find 30% more customers to buy all that “free” wine. Piece of cake, just write another check, sit on the extra wine that doesn’t sell or blend it into something, you’re a rich winery owner. Did I mention, all those bills come due 18 months before you even sell one drop. Then a critic decides it’s not a good vintage and nobody buys. So you sell the rest off to a distributor for 40¢ on the dollar and it shows up at retail for 25% lower than your release price and all your customers get pissed off.

But there’s always next year!

Well done, Brian. Very well done! champagne.gif

I assume that 2018 Napa quality will be similar to Sonoma. Every winemaker I have spoken to on the Sonoma side say that 2018 is the overall best vintage in a long time. Reasons, ZERO HEAT SPIKES, LONG GROWING SEASON, LITTLE MILDEW - MOLD ISSUES, NO MAD DASH TO PICK. Just last week John Raytek of Ceritas told me at his Pick Up Event that “2018 was the best vintage in the past 25 years”.
I’m sure there were some small micro climates where certain grape varieties had some problems but there were not many of those.

From another practical perspective, we live in the heart of Sonoma County, half way between Petaluma and Cloverdale and I can tell you the weather in 2018 was spectacular. The temp never went over 95 and many (most) days didn’t come close to that. Made for a really enjoyable summer and fall.

Tom
PS: Sunday and Monday the weather forecast is for 100+ degrees!

Brian, do you know if a contract for tonnage or for acreage is more common? Obviously, if it’s an acreage contract, that changes the economics substantially.

You and your facts!

I’ve now heard from a few wineries who strongly feel it could be their best vintage to date.

How does that differ from what happens every year?

What I’m really wondering is 2019 Napa - what are the wine makers saying?