A tad premature I know, as most 2017 SV cabs are just now being bottled, but I can’t help wondering what the winemakers are thinking of their 2018 Napa is barrel. Does it compare to where 2013 was at this stage? I’ve now heard from a few wineries who strongly feel it could be their best vintage to date. Any thoughts please weight in over.
Not sure about your supply/demand statement, but I can agree that it was an easy vintage to farm, barrel samples are excellent, and yes, the crops in some places were huge.
Well you cant expect poor winery owners to not increase prices, after all just because you get 30% extra free fruit the corks have gone up by 40 cents so we need an across the board $15 a bottle increase
Your contract is for a 1 acre block. You pay 18,000/T. If the vineyard produces 4T/Acre your fruit cost is $72,000 (don’t worry, I checked my math). If there is a 30% increase in crop size your fruit bill is now $93,600. You have to order 30% more glass, corks, capsules, labels, barrels (oops too late, you needed to do that 3-6 months ago), pay for 30% more tank space, 30% more winery labor, 30% more tax, 30% more cold storage space. Oh and now you have to find 30% more customers to buy all that “free” wine. Piece of cake, just write another check, sit on the extra wine that doesn’t sell or blend it into something, you’re a rich winery owner. Did I mention, all those bills come due 18 months before you even sell one drop. Then a critic decides it’s not a good vintage and nobody buys. So you sell the rest off to a distributor for 40¢ on the dollar and it shows up at retail for 25% lower than your release price and all your customers get pissed off.
I assume that 2018 Napa quality will be similar to Sonoma. Every winemaker I have spoken to on the Sonoma side say that 2018 is the overall best vintage in a long time. Reasons, ZERO HEAT SPIKES, LONG GROWING SEASON, LITTLE MILDEW - MOLD ISSUES, NO MAD DASH TO PICK. Just last week John Raytek of Ceritas told me at his Pick Up Event that “2018 was the best vintage in the past 25 years”.
I’m sure there were some small micro climates where certain grape varieties had some problems but there were not many of those.
From another practical perspective, we live in the heart of Sonoma County, half way between Petaluma and Cloverdale and I can tell you the weather in 2018 was spectacular. The temp never went over 95 and many (most) days didn’t come close to that. Made for a really enjoyable summer and fall.
Tom
PS: Sunday and Monday the weather forecast is for 100+ degrees!
Brian, do you know if a contract for tonnage or for acreage is more common? Obviously, if it’s an acreage contract, that changes the economics substantially.