$175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

Tasting notes, varietals, grapes - anything related to wine
Message
Author
User avatar
Brian Tuite
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 18645
Joined: July 3rd, 2010, 8:53 am
Location: Podunk CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#101 Post by Brian Tuite » June 7th, 2019, 7:16 pm

Peter Valiquette wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 6:05 pm
Brian Tuite wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:24 pm
Talking to a customer/friend/vineyard owner in the RRV the other day and he said his cost of labor has increased drastically this year due to the housing construction boom from the Tubbs Fire. Guys are getting paid $30/hr to build houses. He had a crew weed whack last week and it was $28/hr/head to weed whack his vineyard. Up from $21/hr/head last year. The guy at the Fulton Produce stand said he might not have apple juice this year because labor is going to construction instead of ag and farmers cannot afford to pay what the laborers are getting from contractors.

Ya think the cost of labor affects the cost of grapes/wine?
I’m not sure I’d want to buy a home built by a laborer. [scratch.gif]
Fify. Who do you think is framing and roofing and applying stucco? Not the contractor, I’ll guarantee that.
Bob Wood - 1949-2013 Berserker for eternity! RIP

"On self-reflection, I think a big part of it was me just being a PITA customer..." ~ Anonymous Berserker

"Something so subtle only I can detect it." ~ Randy Bowman

2019 WOTY...

User avatar
Brian Tuite
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 18645
Joined: July 3rd, 2010, 8:53 am
Location: Podunk CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#102 Post by Brian Tuite » June 7th, 2019, 7:22 pm

Alan Eden wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 6:43 pm


Why would you sign up knowing you would never buy ?
I’ve signed up for lists with the intention to buy but sometimes a minimum order qty combined with a per bottle price, both of which may have been unlnown at the time of signing up, prevented me from buying. Hoping one day when that offer comes I’m flush with cash but if it doesn’t happen it doesn’t happen. If they want to keep sending an offer they may get me some day.
Bob Wood - 1949-2013 Berserker for eternity! RIP

"On self-reflection, I think a big part of it was me just being a PITA customer..." ~ Anonymous Berserker

"Something so subtle only I can detect it." ~ Randy Bowman

2019 WOTY...

User avatar
Andrew Demaree
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 2641
Joined: January 23rd, 2011, 7:33 am
Location: Saratoga Springs, NY

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#103 Post by Andrew Demaree » June 7th, 2019, 7:53 pm

Yep. Signed up before the bottle price was known, and without knowing about the three bottle minimum.

User avatar
Roy Piper
Posts: 3820
Joined: January 27th, 2009, 1:57 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#104 Post by Roy Piper » June 7th, 2019, 11:40 pm

Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:12 pm

My corks and capsules also went up this year - off the top of my head I can't say by how much, but I noticed. Name a bunch of other "invisible" costs, and eventually the costs must get passed on. Not that all of a winery's pricing is cost-plus priced...of course there is also market value pricing.
My packaging costs have gone up 8 straight years. But the killer is the fruit costs, up 60% per ton for me between 2014-2016, alone! Luckily it has not moved since 2016. It's a harder world when buying all of one's fruit.
pileon
ITB, text me anytime at 707-266-4168

User avatar
GregT
Posts: 7192
Joined: April 15th, 2009, 3:12 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#105 Post by GregT » June 8th, 2019, 1:15 am

Well so far we've learned that glass has gone up, capsules have gone up, labor has gone up, grapes have gone up, there's a real Alan and an imposter Alan, and Zin is a reasonable substitute for Cab.

These are the reasons I follow this website closely!

And based on what I'm reading, $178.36 is the new $175. I wonder if anyone will buy at that price?
G . T a t a r

[i]"the incorrect overuse of apostrophes is staggering these days. I wonder if half the adults these days have any idea what they are for." Chris Seiber, 5/14/19[/i]

User avatar
GregT
Posts: 7192
Joined: April 15th, 2009, 3:12 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#106 Post by GregT » June 8th, 2019, 1:27 am

David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 12:52 pm
Woe is dead at retail
I miss you David! [cheers.gif]
G . T a t a r

[i]"the incorrect overuse of apostrophes is staggering these days. I wonder if half the adults these days have any idea what they are for." Chris Seiber, 5/14/19[/i]

Bdklein
Posts: 4241
Joined: November 10th, 2013, 1:16 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#107 Post by Bdklein » June 8th, 2019, 4:09 am

Brian Tuite wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 7:22 pm
Alan Eden wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 6:43 pm


Why would you sign up knowing you would never buy ?
I’ve signed up for lists with the intention to buy but sometimes a minimum order qty combined with a per bottle price, both of which may have been unlnown at the time of signing up, prevented me from buying. Hoping one day when that offer comes I’m flush with cash but if it doesn’t happen it doesn’t happen. If they want to keep sending an offer they may get me some day.
+1. Plus lots of interesting info in the email offers .
Bruce Klein

User avatar
Scott Brunson
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 8057
Joined: November 15th, 2011, 2:55 am
Location: in between coastal SC and south FL

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#108 Post by Scott Brunson » June 8th, 2019, 5:12 am

Bdklein wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 4:09 am
Brian Tuite wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 7:22 pm
Alan Eden wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 6:43 pm


Why would you sign up knowing you would never buy ?
I’ve signed up for lists with the intention to buy but sometimes a minimum order qty combined with a per bottle price, both of which may have been unlnown at the time of signing up, prevented me from buying. Hoping one day when that offer comes I’m flush with cash but if it doesn’t happen it doesn’t happen. If they want to keep sending an offer they may get me some day.
+1. Plus lots of interesting info in the email offers .
#HelipadLocations
Tous les chemins mènent à la Bourgogne!
On CT, I'm S1

User avatar
Merrill Lindquist
BerserkerBusiness
BerserkerBusiness
Posts: 10584
Joined: July 22nd, 2009, 6:58 pm
Location: Calistoga, Napa Valley, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#109 Post by Merrill Lindquist » June 8th, 2019, 6:36 am

Roy Piper wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 11:40 pm
Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:12 pm

My corks and capsules also went up this year - off the top of my head I can't say by how much, but I noticed. Name a bunch of other "invisible" costs, and eventually the costs must get passed on. Not that all of a winery's pricing is cost-plus priced...of course there is also market value pricing.
My packaging costs have gone up 8 straight years. But the killer is the fruit costs, up 60% per ton for me between 2014-2016, alone! Luckily it has not moved since 2016. It's a harder world when buying all of one's fruit.
pileon
Yes, fruit costs can be a killer. I am fortunate that I own my own source. However the cost to grow the fruit and maintain the vineyard have increased, just as with most other things we are talking about.

This past year my water source, my well that sits in the middle of my vineyard, completely quit. I was limping along at less than 1 GPM output from the well - hardly enough to supply irrigation for even a small ranch like mine. Then the pump totally quit and had to be replaced. We did a complete overhaul of the well while we were at it, and the well is now pumping out water at 15-16 GPM. Huge difference! And huge hit to my wallet - over $25K.

So Greg, you can add that to the list of things that you have "learned" about the costs of making wine. [cheers.gif]
Merrill
EMH Vineyards - Home of the Black Cat
email:Merrill@EMHVineyards.com

User avatar
Gray G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 303
Joined: August 20th, 2009, 10:25 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#110 Post by Gray G » June 8th, 2019, 6:57 am

Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:36 am
Roy Piper wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 11:40 pm
Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:12 pm

My corks and capsules also went up this year - off the top of my head I can't say by how much, but I noticed. Name a bunch of other "invisible" costs, and eventually the costs must get passed on. Not that all of a winery's pricing is cost-plus priced...of course there is also market value pricing.
My packaging costs have gone up 8 straight years. But the killer is the fruit costs, up 60% per ton for me between 2014-2016, alone! Luckily it has not moved since 2016. It's a harder world when buying all of one's fruit.
pileon
Yes, fruit costs can be a killer. I am fortunate that I own my own source. However the cost to grow the fruit and maintain the vineyard have increased, just as with most other things we are talking about.

This past year my water source, my well that sits in the middle of my vineyard, completely quit. I was limping along at less than 1 GPM output from the well - hardly enough to supply irrigation for even a small ranch like mine. Then the pump totally quit and had to be replaced. We did a complete overhaul of the well while we were at it, and the well is now pumping out water at 15-16 GPM. Huge difference! And huge hit to my wallet - over $25K.

So Greg, you can add that to the list of things that you have "learned" about the costs of making wine. [cheers.gif]
wel well well, 25K that is nothing in business, plus the water from your well is free, cost analysis=net savings to your customers until you sell out champagne.gif
so much time, so little wine, Albanista, flavors please, 6 R 1 9 V 9

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 5656
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#111 Post by Markus S » June 8th, 2019, 7:38 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:56 pm
Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 5:12 pm
Victor Hong wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 4:28 pm
Merrill, would you agree or not? Thank you.
It's not just an increase in glass prices. Snail mail brought an informational letter from my insurer for EMH that some of their terms will be changing. You MUST have liability insurance.

My corks and capsules also went up this year - off the top of my head I can't say by how much, but I noticed. Name a bunch of other "invisible" costs, and eventually the costs must get passed on. Not that all of a winery's pricing is cost-plus priced...of course there is also market value pricing.

As I said before, this wine business is exactly that from a winery's perspective - a business.
Illinois is putting 19 cents tax on gas, state income tax is doubling. Will wineries reduce prices so i can still buy the same amount ?? Oh hang on nope, life sucks sometimes. Nobody is against reasonable jumps, its the 20 % on a release that causes concern. Also why doesnt Bedrock or Carlisle increase $5 or $10 at a time ? It goes up $1 or $2 which is resonable. Im sorry but these large increases are often profit increases not cost increase
Alan, why do you feel the necessity of having to buy from Napa? PLENTY of other choices out there that won't eat your pocketbook. LOOK before whining.
$ _ € ® e . k @

User avatar
David Baum
Posts: 200
Joined: August 24th, 2017, 5:26 pm
Location: Carlsbad CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#112 Post by David Baum » June 8th, 2019, 9:07 am

GregT wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 1:27 am
David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 12:52 pm
Woe is dead at retail
I miss you David! [cheers.gif]
Always great seeing you Greg. Was out with Julie and Scott last night. Meeting at Third Corner today for a Chalone tasting. Will say high for you. Herns is in North Carolina now following his heart and chasing love. Miss him much

User avatar
Craig G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 13931
Joined: March 6th, 2011, 10:57 am
Location: Town of Cats

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#113 Post by Craig G » June 8th, 2019, 10:05 am

David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm
Victor Hong wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:44 pm
Agreed. I could never swap zinfandel versus cabernet sauvignon.
You'd be surprised. I did a tasting at Scherrer and asked Fred to break out some older Zin. He opened an 05 that if you tasted blind you would like guess aged cab or Bordeaux blend. It was rather eye opening
Okay, but his Zin is not very much like some of the usual suspects. And anyway, if you wanted some pretty good, not so expensive Cabernet Sauvignon, Scherrer has that too. Dehlinger is another good choice.
“You need to look down to the bottom shelf where they keep the Fighting Cock” — Corey N.

C. Gle@son

Richard Albert
Posts: 581
Joined: November 16th, 2012, 2:49 pm
Location: Southernmost NorCal Wine Country

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#114 Post by Richard Albert » June 8th, 2019, 10:12 am

When new wineries face prohibitive porchased grape costs, or vineyards costing $300,000 or more per acre, $175 is more understandable. However, I draw a harder more cynical line when established wineries in the hands of long time owners with minimal debt service considerations go to market value pricing, I wonder what is their actual cost to produce a bottle vs because they can.

Regarding market sustainablility, look at the trends employed, wineries must do whatever work$ DTC: multi hour tours/visits, meet a winemaker, chef on site, blend your own, upscale tasting parlor, stay at the guest house, cruise/vacation with our owner/winemaker, etc. It is not easy to attract and hold clients for lots of wineries. Garnering critics attention and positive reviews/ratings is another game, one with dark side aspects.

Not easy in Napa as prices rise with a decreasing number of buyers at each price point and an increasing number of wineries.
ITB

James Sanders
Posts: 569
Joined: June 1st, 2009, 12:35 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#115 Post by James Sanders » June 8th, 2019, 10:25 am

Cult Napa pricing has long been dependent on the young wealth created by Silicon Valley and more recently SF. As long as the NorCal economy keeps creating this population, prices will continue to rise. But it needs both; that is, buyers with lots of money and developing palates. Once either of these things goes away, pricing will stabilize or decrease.

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#116 Post by Anton D » June 8th, 2019, 10:30 am

James Sanders wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 10:25 am
Cult Napa pricing has long been dependent on the young wealth created by Silicon Valley and more recently SF. As long as the NorCal economy keeps creating this population, prices will continue to rise. But it needs both; that is, buyers with lots of money and developing palates. Once either of these things goes away, pricing will stabilize or decrease.
Having worked in the casinos when I was young..."developing palates" would be way down the list. [cheers.gif]

Lots of money, yes. I would rank "label awareness" higher than palate.

Armand de Brignac certainly did not evolve based on developing palates! champagne.gif
Anton Dotson

James Sanders
Posts: 569
Joined: June 1st, 2009, 12:35 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#117 Post by James Sanders » June 8th, 2019, 10:51 am

Good point. Many are indifferent rather than developing.

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#118 Post by Anton D » June 8th, 2019, 10:59 am

A direction I think we might see more of could be wineries like Scribe, who are making accessible 'experiences' for customers who aren't in the 175 dollar bottle range.

I have not been there yet or had their wines, but I like what they have set up.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/travel/arti ... 137347.php

Then, I guess we'll see where customers like that end up on their wine path.

(Both ends of the market are fine by me.)
Anton Dotson

User avatar
Robert.A.Jr.
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 19838
Joined: January 28th, 2010, 5:03 am
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#119 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 8th, 2019, 11:05 am

How is Napanook perceived around these here parts?

Not my style, but it’s become my go-to dinner party wine for parties and guests that do not share my affinity for thin, weedy wines. The wine seems to be a hit wherever I bring it. I now always keep several bottles at the house. Runs $75 and under. I’m ok with a glass, and at least from my clunky palate, don’t find it any better or any worse than some other, much more expensive Cabs that occasionally get stuck in front of my snobby, Francophile nose. Works well with grilled meats, BBQ, pizza, etc.

"@lf3rt was clearly raised in an outhouse in the Loire. . . ."

Kenny H (circa 2015)

User avatar
Sc0tt F!tzger@ld
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 2797
Joined: March 12th, 2013, 7:32 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#120 Post by Sc0tt F!tzger@ld » June 8th, 2019, 11:06 am

I second Napanook and would add Ridge Estate cab.

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#121 Post by Anton D » June 8th, 2019, 11:10 am

Robert.A.Jr. wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 11:05 am
How is Napanook perceived around these here parts?

Not my style, but it’s become my go-to dinner party wine for parties and guests that do not share my affinity for thin, weedy wines. The wine seems to be a hit wherever I bring it. I now always keep several bottles at the house. Runs $75 and under. I’m ok with a glass, and at least from my clunky palate, don’t find it any better or any worse than some other, much more expensive Cabs that occasionally get stuck in front of my snobby, Francophile nose. Works well with grilled meats, BBQ, pizza, etc.
You need to drop two ices cubes and a thistle leaf into your glass when you drink it, it will thin it out and make it a touch more weedy.
Anton Dotson

User avatar
Robert.A.Jr.
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 19838
Joined: January 28th, 2010, 5:03 am
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#122 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 8th, 2019, 11:19 am

Sc0tt F!tzger@ld wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 11:06 am
I second Napanook and would add Ridge Estate cab.
Agreed!

Personally I prefer the Ridge, and it seems to show well in party settings as well, but I can tell the Napanook gets the nod. I’m more happy drinking the Ridge. In the years they tone down new American oak, it really expresses its classic profile.

"@lf3rt was clearly raised in an outhouse in the Loire. . . ."

Kenny H (circa 2015)

User avatar
Merrill Lindquist
BerserkerBusiness
BerserkerBusiness
Posts: 10584
Joined: July 22nd, 2009, 6:58 pm
Location: Calistoga, Napa Valley, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#123 Post by Merrill Lindquist » June 8th, 2019, 11:24 am

Gray G wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:57 am
Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 6:36 am
Roy Piper wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 11:40 pm


My packaging costs have gone up 8 straight years. But the killer is the fruit costs, up 60% per ton for me between 2014-2016, alone! Luckily it has not moved since 2016. It's a harder world when buying all of one's fruit.
pileon
Yes, fruit costs can be a killer. I am fortunate that I own my own source. However the cost to grow the fruit and maintain the vineyard have increased, just as with most other things we are talking about.

This past year my water source, my well that sits in the middle of my vineyard, completely quit. I was limping along at less than 1 GPM output from the well - hardly enough to supply irrigation for even a small ranch like mine. Then the pump totally quit and had to be replaced. We did a complete overhaul of the well while we were at it, and the well is now pumping out water at 15-16 GPM. Huge difference! And huge hit to my wallet - over $25K.

So Greg, you can add that to the list of things that you have "learned" about the costs of making wine. [cheers.gif]
wel well well, 25K that is nothing in business, plus the water from your well is free, cost analysis=net savings to your customers until you sell out champagne.gif
Nothing is free. How does the water get from the well? A pump powered by electricity. How does the water get out from the holding tank to the irrigation tubing/emitters? Powered by the booster pump, which is, naturally, powered by electricity. Irrigation season brings much higher electric bills.

But some of you guys have got this all figured out, so go buy or plant a vineyard, establish a label, and sell your wines to satisfy those who do not understand business.
Merrill
EMH Vineyards - Home of the Black Cat
email:Merrill@EMHVineyards.com

User avatar
GregT
Posts: 7192
Joined: April 15th, 2009, 3:12 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#124 Post by GregT » June 8th, 2019, 4:30 pm

But some of you guys have got this all figured out, so go buy or plant a vineyard, establish a label, and sell your wines to satisfy those who do not understand business.
Merrill - everyone's an expert on everybody else's business. Just listen to politicians!

Sorry about your well. And good point - water is another cost that hasn't been brought up.
G . T a t a r

[i]"the incorrect overuse of apostrophes is staggering these days. I wonder if half the adults these days have any idea what they are for." Chris Seiber, 5/14/19[/i]

Nathan Smyth
Posts: 3252
Joined: February 15th, 2009, 7:11 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#125 Post by Nathan Smyth » June 8th, 2019, 4:56 pm

This thread is simply fascinating - watching Normies trying to feel their way through The Big Picture.
.
blind-men_elephant.jpg
.

Nathan Smyth
Posts: 3252
Joined: February 15th, 2009, 7:11 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#126 Post by Nathan Smyth » June 8th, 2019, 4:57 pm

Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:06 pm
I thought Piper's suggestion was odd.
Just because it's odd doesn't mean it's wrong.
.

Nathan Smyth
Posts: 3252
Joined: February 15th, 2009, 7:11 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#127 Post by Nathan Smyth » June 8th, 2019, 5:01 pm

Bryan Price wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:14 pm
I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I'm not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost.
Obviously you haven't yet tasted the 2015 Argentiera Bolgheri Superiore.

Otherwise you'd be happy to spend the extra $25.
.

User avatar
Merrill Lindquist
BerserkerBusiness
BerserkerBusiness
Posts: 10584
Joined: July 22nd, 2009, 6:58 pm
Location: Calistoga, Napa Valley, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#128 Post by Merrill Lindquist » June 8th, 2019, 5:06 pm

Nathan Smyth wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 4:57 pm
Merrill Lindquist wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:06 pm
I thought Piper's suggestion was odd.
Just because it's odd doesn't mean it's wrong.
.
And that is why I said it was odd. I did not say it was wrong. Do we understand each other?
Merrill
EMH Vineyards - Home of the Black Cat
email:Merrill@EMHVineyards.com

User avatar
D@vid Bu3ker
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 30916
Joined: February 14th, 2009, 8:06 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#129 Post by D@vid Bu3ker » June 8th, 2019, 5:28 pm

Nathan only understands Nathan.
David Bueker - Rieslingfan

User avatar
Gray G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 303
Joined: August 20th, 2009, 10:25 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#130 Post by Gray G » June 9th, 2019, 2:17 pm

GregT wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 4:30 pm
But some of you guys have got this all figured out, so go buy or plant a vineyard, establish a label, and sell your wines to satisfy those who do not understand business.
Merrill - everyone's an expert on everybody else's business. Just listen to politicians!

Sorry about your well. And good point - water is another cost that hasn't been brought up.

so much time, so little wine, Albanista, flavors please, 6 R 1 9 V 9

User avatar
David Baum
Posts: 200
Joined: August 24th, 2017, 5:26 pm
Location: Carlsbad CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#131 Post by David Baum » June 9th, 2019, 2:33 pm

Craig G wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 10:05 am
David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm
Victor Hong wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:44 pm
Agreed. I could never swap zinfandel versus cabernet sauvignon.
You'd be surprised. I did a tasting at Scherrer and asked Fred to break out some older Zin. He opened an 05 that if you tasted blind you would like guess aged cab or Bordeaux blend. It was rather eye opening
Okay, but his Zin is not very much like some of the usual suspects. And anyway, if you wanted some pretty good, not so expensive Cabernet Sauvignon, Scherrer has that too. Dehlinger is another good choice.
Yes but not available around $25 as his Zin futures are and it drank beautifully.

User avatar
Merrill Lindquist
BerserkerBusiness
BerserkerBusiness
Posts: 10584
Joined: July 22nd, 2009, 6:58 pm
Location: Calistoga, Napa Valley, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#132 Post by Merrill Lindquist » June 9th, 2019, 3:40 pm

Gray G wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 2:17 pm
GregT wrote:
June 8th, 2019, 4:30 pm
But some of you guys have got this all figured out, so go buy or plant a vineyard, establish a label, and sell your wines to satisfy those who do not understand business.
Merrill - everyone's an expert on everybody else's business. Just listen to politicians!

Sorry about your well. And good point - water is another cost that hasn't been brought up.
While the well was down, I was inching toward harvest. I had to buy 3500 gallon tanks of water for my home and my vineyard. Total cost around $1600. Last year was not very profitable due to unexpected costs. I had to absorb it.

Also - look at the "all in" costs of a wine you purchase. I might look like my price had gone up, but I have started to include shipping on all purchases. That can be close to $10/bottle for small orders.



Merrill
EMH Vineyards - Home of the Black Cat
email:Merrill@EMHVineyards.com

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#133 Post by Anton D » June 9th, 2019, 4:05 pm

I think you pay the Napa Premium, for sure.

We upgraded to a multi phase or “continuous phase” or something 5HP well pump last year that does 60 GPM and it seemed dirt cheap.

I bet zip codes make a big difference.
Anton Dotson

Ben M a n d l e r
Posts: 48
Joined: January 20th, 2019, 9:42 am
Location: Santa Rosa, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#134 Post by Ben M a n d l e r » June 9th, 2019, 4:06 pm

Napa is a recognized name. It'll always be fine, the question is just how fine.

To respond to a couple of the points people have raised about "younger generations". I'm 30. My wife and I are squarely middle class and have never bought a bottle over $100 except for a Monte Bello to celebrate our wedding. I know people my age who have no money - they don't buy ultra-premium Napa. I know people who have some money - they don't buy ultra-premium Napa, even the ones who are super into wine. They're not going to save up for these bottles, and they're certainly not going to buy them in restaurants.

And then I know people who have enough money that they do buy ultra-premium Napa. Most of those people aren't like you guys! They might be into wine and have the bank balance to buy what they want, but the specific wines they buy, taste, and drink, don't occupy them quite as much. Old World they're buying Bordeaux, Burgundy, Rhone, Barolo/Barbaresco, Brunello, Priorat - all wines that have seen variably steep price increases associated with their caché. And that's what all their friends are buying too. So when they look to the new world they do the same. They buy Napa cab. They're much more likely to get into a conversation about Howell Mtn vs. Stags Leap than about Santa Cruz Mountains or Yakima. All good, I think. I think the point about the steakhouses is a really good one - so many people are buying $175 cabs for much more than that at a restaurant, I don't think we're going to run out of rich people to buy Napa any time soon. Not unless other regions become much, much more famous, or Cab sees a drop in popularity among the wealthy.

+1 on Cadillac Desert - a great read.

Hao Lu
Posts: 35
Joined: October 15th, 2015, 5:02 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#135 Post by Hao Lu » June 9th, 2019, 4:09 pm

sounds like inflation is picking up in california

Tom G l a s g o w
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 4129
Joined: February 19th, 2010, 2:01 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#136 Post by Tom G l a s g o w » June 9th, 2019, 4:10 pm

Anton D wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:05 pm
I think you pay the Napa Premium, for sure.

We upgraded to a multi phase or “continuous phase” or something 5HP well pump last year that does 60 GPM and it seemed dirt cheap.

I bet zip codes make a big difference.
The aquifer makes a big difference. We had a well that half mile away wouldn’t present a problem. Unfortunately. Had to drill 400’ to the 4th aquifer.

User avatar
Gray G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 303
Joined: August 20th, 2009, 10:25 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#137 Post by Gray G » June 9th, 2019, 5:16 pm

Tom G l a s g o w wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:10 pm
Anton D wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:05 pm
I think you pay the Napa Premium, for sure.

We upgraded to a multi phase or “continuous phase” or something 5HP well pump last year that does 60 GPM and it seemed dirt cheap.

I bet zip codes make a big difference.
The aquifer makes a big difference. We had a well that half mile away wouldn’t present a problem. Unfortunately. Had to drill 400’ to the 4th aquifer.
drill baby drill

pump pump pump

the market drives the price of most everything including $175 Napa Cab

cheers
so much time, so little wine, Albanista, flavors please, 6 R 1 9 V 9

User avatar
Markus S
Posts: 5656
Joined: May 20th, 2010, 7:27 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#138 Post by Markus S » June 9th, 2019, 6:15 pm

Tom G l a s g o w wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:10 pm
The aquifer makes a big difference. We had a well that half mile away wouldn’t present a problem. Unfortunately. Had to drill 400’ to the 4th aquifer.
And pretty soon, you run out of aquifer and realize that California is an arid environment not meant to support intensive agriculture.

+2 on Cadillac Desert. Still timely even after so many years.
$ _ € ® e . k @

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#139 Post by Anton D » June 9th, 2019, 7:06 pm

Tom G l a s g o w wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:10 pm
Anton D wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:05 pm
I think you pay the Napa Premium, for sure.

We upgraded to a multi phase or “continuous phase” or something 5HP well pump last year that does 60 GPM and it seemed dirt cheap.

I bet zip codes make a big difference.
The aquifer makes a big difference. We had a well that half mile away wouldn’t present a problem. Unfortunately. Had to drill 400’ to the 4th aquifer.
All this stuff is very interesting to me.

I was chatting with our county’s ‘water master,’ our aquifer slides under the local geological strata such that it has nothing to do with local water....it comes from the Wasatch and Rockies via lateral flow. No connection to the Sierras or Cascades.

We are drilled to around 330 feet but the ‘bulb?’ Is set at 170-180. No change in the past decade.

We have the well I mentioned before and another ‘industrial well’ we share with neighboring properties. It’s a mo fo. It can kick up to 10-15 PSI. Our barn actually has a fire hose coupling. Our neighbor worked for Cal Fire and still helps do preventative stuff and we will fire that faucet up once or twice a year and it’s something to behold. No clue how many GPM but it makes our other pump look like a 59 VW bug next to a Hellcat. You can’t stand up and be hit with it, even if you bet a beer on it! It is an irresistible force.

I drifted.

Out here, ag stuff is likely 90% cheaper than what Merrill faces.

We had a metal sided and roofed outbuilding installed in one pasture, 20x40, with a treated wood foundation, they leveled the ground, installed it, secured it to the earth and foundation, in the colors we preferred...1700 bucks! It was 1/10th what I anticipated.
Anton Dotson

Brian Gilp
Posts: 2334
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 6:00 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#140 Post by Brian Gilp » June 10th, 2019, 3:47 am

Ben M a n d l e r wrote:
June 9th, 2019, 4:06 pm
I think the point about the steakhouses is a really good one - so many people are buying $175 cabs for much more than that at a restaurant, I don't think we're going to run out of rich people to buy Napa any time soon. Not unless other regions become much, much more famous, or Cab sees a drop in popularity among the wealthy.
Quite a few years ago now, the sommelier at Citronelle in DC was showing my wife and me around the cellar when he dropped this quote. "Over there are the California cabernets. They don't go with anything on the menu but we sell the piss out of them."

User avatar
David Glasser
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 6025
Joined: August 16th, 2009, 6:03 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#141 Post by David Glasser » June 10th, 2019, 4:38 am

Knowing the percentage of $100-200 Napa Cabernet that is sold to restaurants, through traditional retail, and direct to consumers would add some perspective to this discussion.

User avatar
Gray G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 303
Joined: August 20th, 2009, 10:25 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#142 Post by Gray G » June 10th, 2019, 7:00 am

David Glasser wrote:
June 10th, 2019, 4:38 am
Knowing the percentage of $100-200 Napa Cabernet that is sold to restaurants, through traditional retail, and direct to consumers would add some perspective to this discussion.

yes, a Napa Cabernet list of what's out there with price points would be interesting
so much time, so little wine, Albanista, flavors please, 6 R 1 9 V 9

User avatar
Pat Esposito
Posts: 56
Joined: March 13th, 2011, 7:12 pm
Location: NE Ohio

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#143 Post by Pat Esposito » June 10th, 2019, 7:10 am

David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm
Victor Hong wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:44 pm
Agreed. I could never swap zinfandel versus cabernet sauvignon.
You'd be surprised. I did a tasting at Scherrer and asked Fred to break out some older Zin. He opened an 05 that if you tasted blind you would like guess aged cab or Bordeaux blend. It was rather eye opening
I had a '73 Ridge Geyserville Zin two years ago that drank like an aged BDX, it was tremendous.

User avatar
Gray G
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 303
Joined: August 20th, 2009, 10:25 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#144 Post by Gray G » June 10th, 2019, 7:27 am

Pat Esposito wrote:
June 10th, 2019, 7:10 am
David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm
Victor Hong wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 1:44 pm
Agreed. I could never swap zinfandel versus cabernet sauvignon.
You'd be surprised. I did a tasting at Scherrer and asked Fred to break out some older Zin. He opened an 05 that if you tasted blind you would like guess aged cab or Bordeaux blend. It was rather eye opening
I had a '73 Ridge Geyserville Zin two years ago that drank like an aged BDX, it was tremendous.
I've had similar experiences with 10+ yr old Zin
so much time, so little wine, Albanista, flavors please, 6 R 1 9 V 9

User avatar
Anton D
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 27792
Joined: October 17th, 2013, 11:25 am
Location: Chico, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#145 Post by Anton D » June 10th, 2019, 8:19 am

Gray G wrote:
June 10th, 2019, 7:27 am
Pat Esposito wrote:
June 10th, 2019, 7:10 am
David Baum wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 3:45 pm


You'd be surprised. I did a tasting at Scherrer and asked Fred to break out some older Zin. He opened an 05 that if you tasted blind you would like guess aged cab or Bordeaux blend. It was rather eye opening
I had a '73 Ridge Geyserville Zin two years ago that drank like an aged BDX, it was tremendous.
I've had similar experiences with 10+ yr old Zin
Hear, hear!

[cheers.gif]
Anton Dotson

User avatar
John Ammons
Posts: 1128
Joined: August 3rd, 2011, 10:26 am
Location: Mill Valley, CA

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#146 Post by John Ammons » June 10th, 2019, 9:38 am

Agree that aged Zin can converge with aged Claret. Will that happen with the likes of Carlisle and Bedrock? Not sure. The oldest Carlisle I've had was perhaps 8 years old, and convergence was not underway.

As for young Zin vs young Napa cab, I'm in the camp that does not see that as a substitution whatsoever.

User avatar
Victor Hong
Posts: 13899
Joined: May 30th, 2009, 1:34 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#147 Post by Victor Hong » June 10th, 2019, 11:35 am

Beauty and ugliness converge at demise.
WineHunter.

User avatar
Ed Steinway
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 1449
Joined: March 14th, 2010, 4:40 pm

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#148 Post by Ed Steinway » June 11th, 2019, 7:11 am

While there are many Napa Cabs that have had large price increases in the last few years, one can still find some very good bottles for $125 or less. Dunn Howell Mountain, Mondavi Reserve, Mayacamas, Forman, La Jota, Mt. Brave, EMH, Montelena, O'Shaughnessy, Arns, etc. And for many of these, back-filling is often less expensive if one is willing to take the risk with bottle condition. Whether or not they scratch the itch for one who is looking for a cult-wine is another matter. IMO, the market will continue to rise as long as the economy is strong. If the economy slows, the Napa Cab market may change.

Ed

David Crow
Posts: 50
Joined: September 30th, 2016, 8:22 am

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#149 Post by David Crow » June 11th, 2019, 10:47 am

Ed Steinway wrote:
June 11th, 2019, 7:11 am
While there are many Napa Cabs that have had large price increases in the last few years, one can still find some very good bottles for $125 or less. Dunn Howell Mountain, Mondavi Reserve, Mayacamas, Forman, La Jota, Mt. Brave, EMH, Montelena, O'Shaughnessy, Arns, etc.
I believe most, if not all, of those wines mentioned as still being good values in Napa have owned their own vineyards for many years. Since it seems like the biggest cost driver is the increasing price of high quality grapes I wonder how much of an advantage wineries that have owned their own vineyards for many years and just have to pay for the farming costs will have over those that depend on purchased fruit in terms of maintaining reasonable prices while holding their margins. Seems like from a consumer standpoint a good value play is to go for more established estate wines where they are less dependent on grower-driven price increases.

User avatar
Andrew Demaree
GCC Member
GCC Member
Posts: 2641
Joined: January 23rd, 2011, 7:33 am
Location: Saratoga Springs, NY

Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#150 Post by Andrew Demaree » June 11th, 2019, 4:04 pm

Good call on Arns, Ed. Excellent cab, ages well, and Sandi Belcher (winemaker and co-owner) is super nice.

Post Reply

Return to “Wine Talk”