$175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

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Alan Eden
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$175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#1 Post by Alan Eden » June 5th, 2019, 7:22 pm

Just a few years ago, say 2 or 3 it seemed that $125-$150 got you most of the best cab vineyards below the ultra premium class such as your Bond's, Colgin's etc. So in that $125 + range you had Roy Piper, the better Mike Smith wines like Myriad BTK's, Hopper etc. Now those same wine are $175, Carter, Roy Piper, New Becklyn Hopper etc. even new wines are in that $175+ such as WS GIII cab, Kinsman etc.

Now i know the arguments that costs have gone up in Napa, grapes are up, labour is up etc but that's a 40% jump in 3 years or so pretty sure most people are not earning 40% more than 3 years ago. So will the market support this amount of expensive cab ? now you are looking at well over $1000 for a 6 pack and that is hard to do for more than a couple of releases a year.

I feel there is a market adjustment coming
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#2 Post by jgreco » June 5th, 2019, 8:07 pm

The next level below the “ultra premium” has not been in the $125 range for at least 5 years. I just checked three of them that I order a case from and none were $125 in 2013: Spottswoode ($185), Continuum ($225), and VHR ($185). Spottswoode is now $210 and the others are $225. Running a bit ahead of inflation but not by much and probably not at all unusual for wine. Look at Bordeaux in the same time frame and I think you will see larger increases. And definitely don’t look at Burgundy.

You mention Roy Piper, but his wine is only 7 vintages old and is small production that mostly sells out. Hard make generalizations about the market when we are talking hundreds of cases.

As far as new wines always being $175+? I’m not sure that is the case either. Look at William & Mary’s debut last year for example.

The wine is better than ever. Waiting lists are much shorter, but they still seem to be relatively full. The wineries seem to have a good handle on supply and demand.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#3 Post by Bryan Price » June 5th, 2019, 8:14 pm

My wife and I earn healthy incomes, even by California standards, and I still find it very hard to buy any wine pushing $100. I know "value" is based on personal, subjective standards, but when do diminishing returns set in?!!!! I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I'm not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost. I'm not even touching Napa cabs for this very reason.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#4 Post by Victor Hong » June 5th, 2019, 8:28 pm

Such high-priced wines pair with sheep.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#5 Post by Jake Rubash » June 5th, 2019, 8:41 pm

Yeeep, definitely has changed my Cali (specifically Napa) buying habits. We are down to 3 wines that we buy at over $100 (Tynan, MACDONALD and Maybach) with most of the rest falling in the $50ish range.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#6 Post by John Morris » June 5th, 2019, 8:44 pm

Bryan Price wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:14 pm
when do diminishing returns set in?!!!! I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I'm not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#7 Post by Glenn L e v i n e » June 5th, 2019, 8:47 pm

I’m largely out at $175/btl.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#8 Post by james l moleberg » June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm

simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#9 Post by R. Frankel » June 5th, 2019, 8:56 pm

I like these wines (Cali cab) but indeed as the prices push out of my comfort zone, I find myself returning to Bordeaux for Cabernet based wines I choose to afford. It’s a big world of wine.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#10 Post by blarmston » June 5th, 2019, 8:59 pm

I had this exact conversation yesterday with a colleague and fellow wine lover.

My thought is that the recession is setting in (I would argue it started in December but due to the Fed 180 it was masked over by the miraculous V bottom in risk assets) and that there will be much pain over the next several years.

While fine wine is an inelastic good to some degree, everyone has their pain threshold. As evidenced by the first couple posts on this thread, people are much more selective about their buying, and this in a still relatively good economy. Fast forward two years when unemployment is up, incomes are hurt by rising inflation, and most people are shoring up their finances and I think that a large percentage of the $175+ per bottle crowd will be in tough shape.

Other than the labels with deeeep pockets, there will be a massive increase in ‘Mom and pops’ selling out to the Constellations of the world.

In my opinion it will take most of Napa too long to realize the new reality and they will lose customers. No more price increases but perhaps price freezes but it still won’t matter. In hindsight, Fred Schrader and Colgin and even Heitz from last year may have timed their exits perfectly...

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#11 Post by lleichtman » June 5th, 2019, 9:02 pm

Alan Eden wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 7:22 pm
Just a few years ago, say 2 or 3 it seemed that $125-$150 got you most of the best cab vineyards below the ultra premium class such as your Bond's, Colgin's etc. So in that $125 + range you had Roy Piper, the better Mike Smith wines like Myriad BTK's, Hopper etc. Now those same wine are $175, Carter, Roy Piper, New Becklyn Hopper etc. even new wines are in that $175+ such as WS GIII cab, Kinsman etc.

Now i know the arguments that costs have gone up in Napa, grapes are up, labour is up etc but that's a 40% jump in 3 years or so pretty sure most people are not earning 40% more than 3 years ago. So will the market support this amount of expensive cab ? now you are looking at well over $1000 for a 6 pack and that is hard to do for more than a couple of releases a year.

I feel there is a market adjustment coming
If they can get it, the market will support it. There is no clear ceiling at this point. However winemakers should keep in mind that the international market may be significantly impacted by the tariff wars. [stirthepothal.gif]
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#12 Post by Markus S » June 6th, 2019, 4:34 am

Sure, why not? Americans are making boatloads of cash right now, and - being filthy rich - can buy whatever they want at any price asked. champagne.gif
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#13 Post by Howard Cooper » June 6th, 2019, 4:57 am

How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn't that the test?
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#14 Post by Robert.A.Jr. » June 6th, 2019, 5:05 am

Victor Hong wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:28 pm
Such high-priced wines pair with sheep.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#15 Post by Kevin McEvoy » June 6th, 2019, 5:10 am

Stopped buying new Napa vintages long ago and now just pick up the classics via auction. Mondavi Reserve, Dunn, Montelena, Anderson Conn V Reserve, Spottswoode are all easily available at way less than the current vintage prices, and they are already aged so I don't have to store them for 10 years+ (although I know most new producers make the wines in a style that can be drunk younger than that).

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#16 Post by NickRut » June 6th, 2019, 7:07 am

I do notice a significant difference in the $175 wines vs the $75 wines so I still buy both. It does get to a point of diminishing returns though. Some brands sell out at that price point almost immediately and some have wine sit on shelves. I haven’t seen anyone drop pricing too much so it doesn’t seem to be affecting business enough to force change.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#17 Post by Alan Eden » June 6th, 2019, 8:24 am

Howard Cooper wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 4:57 am
How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn't that the test?
They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny's are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#18 Post by Alan Eden » June 6th, 2019, 8:26 am

james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
James

So your method is to just let the wineries increase 20% a year and never say anything ? seems like a cop out
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#19 Post by Markus S » June 6th, 2019, 8:31 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:26 am
james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
James

So your method is to just let the wineries increase 20% a year and never say anything ? seems like a cop out
You don't need to say anything. You simply don't buy the bottles. This is called the Invisible Hand of the Marketplace. Works like magic.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#20 Post by Bill Tex Landreth » June 6th, 2019, 8:37 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:26 am
james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
James

So your method is to just let the wineries increase 20% a year and never say anything ? seems like a cop out
So, I should call up winery X and tell them that their price hike for 2017 is out of line and I should expect them to drop it? How about calling up BMW and bitch about the 6 Series pricing?

Let them price as they see fit and if that doesn't fit with YOUR buying strategy, then drop them. For me, I have passed (or let others take my allocations) on several wineries now that have broken my threshold price. I bit on Kinsman, but I really feel that is my last $200 bottle of wine for the foreseeable future with 2008 Champagnes being the exception.

I am happy to drink all the big guns that my local friends continue to buy in quantity as they make 10X what I do. I cook the beef and they pour the wine. Seems like a fair and equitable trade all the way around.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#21 Post by Anton D » June 6th, 2019, 8:38 am

james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
Why can't they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don't like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread. [cheers.gif]

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#22 Post by Victor Hong » June 6th, 2019, 8:41 am

Anton D wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:38 am
james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
Why can't they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don't like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread. [cheers.gif]

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.
Agreed.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#23 Post by Anton D » June 6th, 2019, 8:48 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:24 am
Howard Cooper wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 4:57 am
How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn't that the test?
They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny's are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.
Cult wines are dead at retail?

[cheers.gif]

For me, above the century mark is a "special consideration wine." I get a few, but the farther and farther one goes down that price drain, the faster one spins!

What these highest end wines really need is a more supportive forum so like minded oenophiles can froth each other up and prop up the market.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#24 Post by Anton D » June 6th, 2019, 8:51 am

Victor Hong wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:41 am
Anton D wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:38 am
james l moleberg wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:52 pm
simply put, if you don't like it, don't pay it. bitching and moaning isn't going to make them drop their price... put up or shut up.
Why can't they comment and speculate?

I say, if you don't like people complaining about prices, shut up and close the thread. [cheers.gif]

Thanks for the Abe Simpsons platitudes, though.
Agreed.
Well, you well know the proven value of offensive, uncomfortable, and hostile speech! [wink.gif] [cheers.gif]
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#25 Post by Hao Lu » June 6th, 2019, 9:20 am

Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#26 Post by NickRut » June 6th, 2019, 9:29 am

It actually does seem like more wineries are getting into this space. I cannot imagine they've done that without some level of financial modeling to predict the sales impact. The increase in bottles would indicate that this wine is selling just fine and that it makes business sense to enter that segment of the market. I can't foresee a major drop or stall in pricing until something changes where people stop buying in mass.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#27 Post by Alan Eden » June 6th, 2019, 9:31 am

Hao Lu wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 9:20 am
Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population.
You mean like people on this forum ?
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#28 Post by Victor Hong » June 6th, 2019, 9:48 am

Touche.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#29 Post by R M Kriete » June 6th, 2019, 10:03 am

Bryan Price wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:14 pm
My wife and I earn healthy incomes, even by California standards, and I still find it very hard to buy any wine pushing $100. I know "value" is based on personal, subjective standards, but when do diminishing returns set in?!!!! I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I'm not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost. I'm not even touching Napa cabs for this very reason.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#30 Post by Blair Ridley » June 6th, 2019, 10:24 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:24 am
They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny's are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.
Wow - if Binny's is just making that move now, they're well behind the curve. Most stores near me shifted toward craft beer and spirits/bourbon a couple of years ago.

@ Kevin McEvoy - Best post on the thread! I'm with you 100% --- so much so that we may be outbidding each other lol. As long as one likes aged wines, going the auction route for the classics like you listed (most available ~$100 or less per bottle) is awesome.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#31 Post by blarmston » June 6th, 2019, 11:20 am

"Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population"

No way, haven't you heard Ben and Janet and now Jerome over the years? The FED's QE has NOT contributed to income and wealth inequality over the years. Rising tides have lifted ALL boats! (sarcasm alert)
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#32 Post by Craig G » June 6th, 2019, 12:18 pm

blarmston wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:20 am
"Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population"

No way, haven't you heard Ben and Janet and now Jerome over the years? The FED's QE has NOT contributed to income and wealth inequality over the years. Rising tides have lifted ALL boats! (sarcasm alert)
No, it’s true. It’s just that only the rich tend to have boats.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#33 Post by Alan Eden » June 6th, 2019, 12:40 pm

Blair Ridley wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 10:24 am
Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:24 am
They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny's are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.
Wow - if Binny's is just making that move now, they're well behind the curve. Most stores near me shifted toward craft beer and spirits/bourbon a couple of years ago.

I often get attacked for my awful grammar, in this case its your awful reading !!!
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#34 Post by Keith A k e r s » June 6th, 2019, 1:28 pm

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 8:24 am
Howard Cooper wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 4:57 am
How are expensive California wines selling at Binnys? Isn't that the test?
They are not, talking with store managers at Binnys they are planning to further reduce the wine section footprint across the stores. Across Chicagoland Binny's are observing a steady decline in wine sales with a bias towards the higher values. For example in my surburban Binnys they have Bond, Bryant, SQN, Colgin etc on the shelves and just not moving. The wine section will be downsized in favor of craft beer and spirits ( especially bourbon ) which are booming and they just cant keep in stock in large enough volumes.

which manager(s) and at which stores? Because I have an extremely hard time believing this. I worked for Binnys for almost a decade and I still have plenty of relationships and I haven't heard anything of the sort. Wine is still their biggest seller by a large margin and they make the most amount of margin on wine. So, I'm calling shenanigans on this.

edit: I don't want to talk about this on a public forum, so if you want to talk about it further, I will only do this via PM

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#35 Post by Peter Valiquette » June 6th, 2019, 5:00 pm

I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#36 Post by blarmston » June 6th, 2019, 5:15 pm

Peter Valiquette wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:00 pm
Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.
And that demographic cannot sustain the industry forever. As they age, there is less of a propensity to purchase and consume high end bottlings. As they age and get deeper into retirement, inflation really chips away at lifestyle and purchasing power. They will be less willing (and able) to drop $1K for a six pack of quality mid tier Napa juice.

Stagflation is coming. Slow to negative growth of sales coupled with rising input costs. Wineries will either choose to take it on the chin by not raising prices, or risk losing customers by passing those costs along. It’ll be a downward reinforcing feedback loop. I hope I’m wrong but there’s a decent chance that I won’t be.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#37 Post by Scott Brunson » June 6th, 2019, 5:19 pm

Somms don't drive the market.
Hipsters certainly don't drive the market.
People with disposable income drive the market.

Napa will be fine.

(but I have dropped more than a few--I don't have unlimited disposable income). [cheers.gif]
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#38 Post by GregT » June 6th, 2019, 5:27 pm

I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.
Would those be somms with plenty of tattoos who passed some kind of test but haven't any experience with wines beyond ten-fifteen years?

Part of the job of a somm is to keep up with what's happening in the market so they're always trying to find the next cool thing. But the main part of their job is to get wines that people will buy and like. And if wines are over $300, it's not just Napa that those millennial hipsters aren't buying.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#39 Post by Anton D » June 6th, 2019, 5:45 pm

Peter Valiquette wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:00 pm
I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.
The younger "fun factor" and 'experience' crowd are a great new phenomenon. I have no issue with that new social phenomenon.

I can also see somms might get sick of giant Parkerized fruit bombs and food pairing, leaning back toward classic structures.

Napa still seems to be doing OK. Just so long as people have a way to let other people know the cache of the wine they are drinking, the upper end market should survive. Social signalling will prolong the high end's life span.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#40 Post by John Morris » June 6th, 2019, 5:50 pm

Anton D wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:45 pm
Just so long as people have a way to let other people know the cache[t] of the wine they are drinking, the upper end market should survive. Social signalling will prolong the high end's life span.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#41 Post by Peter Valiquette » June 6th, 2019, 6:13 pm

GregT wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:27 pm
I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.
Would those be somms with plenty of tattoos who passed some kind of test but haven't any experience with wines beyond ten-fifteen years?

Part of the job of a somm is to keep up with what's happening in the market so they're always trying to find the next cool thing. But the main part of their job is to get wines that people will buy and like. And if wines are over $300, it's not just Napa that those millennial hipsters aren't buying.
No, quite the opposite.

&

Yes, but it’s easy to find a lush Cabernet without breaking the $100 barrier.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#42 Post by Anton D » June 6th, 2019, 6:50 pm

John Morris wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:50 pm
Anton D wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:45 pm
Just so long as people have a way to let other people know the cache[t] of the wine they are drinking, the upper end market should survive. Social signalling will prolong the high end's life span.
Thorsten Veblen lives, and he's following this thread closely.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#43 Post by Keith A k e r s » June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm

Peter Valiquette wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:00 pm
I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.


newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#44 Post by Bill Tex Landreth » June 7th, 2019, 4:03 am

Keith A k e r s wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm
Peter Valiquette wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 5:00 pm
I’m in the camp of predicting trouble for napa cabs in the $100-$200 price range.

Napa in general seems to have fallen out of favor with the somms I know. These folks seem to gravitate to more classically styled wines with higher acid and structure.

I also don’t seem many of the millennial hipster crowd reaching for a napa Cab. These folks seem to gravitate to small producers of natural, organic, orange, biodynamic, sustainable buzzword stuff.

Napa seems to do well with the established baby boomers with disposable income.


newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?
Bingo.

The Alice Ferring minions that are hipster somms don’t affect cab sales one bit in the big picture.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#45 Post by Peter Valiquette » June 7th, 2019, 4:22 am

Keith A k e r s wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm


newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?
I have no doubt, but this thread is about $175 cabs, not the Justin’s, Jordan’s, Caymus, and Silver Oaks which litter steak house wine lists.

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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#46 Post by Markus S » June 7th, 2019, 4:35 am

Keith A k e r s wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm
newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?
There are even more Chinese restaurants in this country, every little Podunkville has their very own chop-suey house. Do to the price difference, how many more times a year will people be going to a Chinese restaurant vs a steak establishment? Do the math and I would say 10:1.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#47 Post by Alan Eden » June 7th, 2019, 4:39 am

Markus S wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 4:35 am
Keith A k e r s wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm
newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?
There are even more Chinese restaurants in this country, every little Podunkville has their very own chop-suey house. Do to the price difference, how many more times a year will people be going to a Chinese restaurant vs a steak establishment? Do the math and I would say 10:1.
Not sure why that matters, nobody is buying high end wine with their $10 fried rice
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#48 Post by Brian Tuite » June 7th, 2019, 5:46 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 9:31 am
Hao Lu wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 9:20 am
Since Fed started QE in late 2008, the income distribution deteriorated horribly. The rich gets richer. It may be true that most people did not earn 40% more in past 3-5 years, but folks who drink $150 very likely did. High end napa cabs only target this small population.
You mean like people on this forum ?
Speak for yourself. There are plenty of us on this forum who earn meager incomes in comparison to the ones you refer. Those are the ones I started he “things you say when you can’t afford the next wine release” for and there are plenty of us.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#49 Post by Markus S » June 7th, 2019, 6:03 am

Alan Eden wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 4:39 am
Markus S wrote:
June 7th, 2019, 4:35 am
Keith A k e r s wrote:
June 6th, 2019, 11:15 pm
newsflash, there are tons of steakhouses in the US. Guess what their greatest wine sales are by a massive margin?
There are even more Chinese restaurants in this country, every little Podunkville has their very own chop-suey house. Do to the price difference, how many more times a year will people be going to a Chinese restaurant vs a steak establishment? Do the math and I would say 10:1.
Not sure why that matters, nobody is buying high end wine with their $10 fried rice
Exactly. That's why I pointed it out to the gentleman who said the market for high-end cabs would not disappear because there are plenty of steakhouses. Steakhouses do not - and cannot - sustain these wines themselves.
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Re: $175+ is the new $125 in Napa, will market support ?

#50 Post by Dave McCloskey » June 7th, 2019, 6:26 am

John Morris wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:44 pm
Bryan Price wrote:
June 5th, 2019, 8:14 pm
when do diminishing returns set in?!!!! I can drink a wine for $50, I enjoy it, I'm not likely to love a wine for $75 that much more to justify the added cost.
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I think there's a variety of factors that should come into play when purchasing wine; such as wine maker, vintage and site location, single vineyard vs wide aggregation, rather than focusing solely on price. I also would not recommend limiting oneself to a particular price range.

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