Online wine auction offerings becoming sparse and pricey?

Or am I becoming senile (or both)?

I can’t speak to sparse, but if my “winning” bids at the most recent Zachys’s auction are any indication, I would say there are no deals out there.

After premium and tax:

2010 Leoville Poyferre $140
2010 Bouchard “Baby Jesus” $110
1989 Pichon Lalande $210
2012 Togni Cab $95
2014 Boillot Clos Mouchere Blanc $120
2009 Pichon Lalande $150
2014 Montrose $90
2005 Delas Hermitage Bessards $120
2003 Leoville Poyferre $120

I haven’t checked winesearcher but could likely have found them at around the same price.

Several of those prices look to be 25% off Winesesrcher retail. Prices have been increasing so fast lately, including at retail, that it’s hard to keep track. I’ve never seen prices go up across the board as fast as they have in the last year — I wonder if it’s permanent or a bubble

Definitely harder to find deals these days though recently picked up some Cathiard and Leflaive at decent (10% below CT low) prices.

Only way to find deals is to for wines that don’t move (there are tons of bottles that have been sitting on spectrum or winebid for several months), the reserve prices are close to retail once you factor in premium…

I agree, there appears to be several auction houses that have increased their prices over the past few months and bottles continue to stay on the auction blocks month after month. Funny thing is several of the auction houses are off to their best start in months in terms of revenue haha

I’ve noticed this generally but at Brentwood in particular - reserve prices seem to be set at or close to retail. Unless a particular wine is not available elsewhere, not worth the risk unless there is some meaningful discount.

Auction offerings are certainly not sparse. In the US I’m seeing more breadth and depth come into market via auctions. Those with cellars of any size are seeing the market froth and selling. K&L is running 750 - 800 auctions a week, that seems very high. Zachy’s is running more frequent in-person auctions in both NY and Hong Kong. Their online only “zCollections” have gone from being a few dozen interesting wines just a few years ago to 1500+ lots (several times a month!) like the most recent one. HDH, Acker, etc. are all running bigger auctions that run over more days more frequently. Volume is absolutely up.

Pricing and competition on the other hand are definitely up far more. The word is out on online auctions. The ease of access and the maturity of the Internet market has led to an explosion of demand. Supply is nowhere near catching up.

Sure, it’s a bit sad, because deals are much harder to find. The really interesting thing will be what happens in the next recession. We all know our US economy is cyclical. There will be a recession some time in the next 5 or 10 years. Does the online auction market tank? My guess is that it will follow the path of all luxury goods markets and suffer but we’ll see.

That’s because Brentwood is basically another arm for Benchmark to sell their wine. When they weren’t part of Benchmark there were some nice deals to be had.

Look, an optimist! There’ll be one coming earlier than that.

The current recession is already here folks…

Leading economic indicators have been rolling over for several months, since late last year. Markets would’ve never V-bottomed if it weren’t for the full bending over to the markets by Jerome and The Fed. Economic “green shoots” in China is a mirage, spurred short term by massive stimulus (8% of China’s GDP in January alone). Sure, unemployment numbers are “best ever”, but the true reading on that is more like 15% (don’t believe the official # or else I would like to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn). This year to date performance is a last hurrah, designed to bring back in the retail dumb money (as institutions de-risk and a final blowout for corporate buybacks, who have been the ONLY marginal buyer of equities this year). The Fed and global central banks see what is coming, and they are SCARED SHITLESS.

Batten down the hatches, and head for cover, because whats to come will be brutal. Kinda like the dragon and Kings Landing last night…

And yes, I have seen an uptick on K&L auctions. Prices still inflated but come back in 6-12 months for a better entry point (on everything- wine and non wine related)

Leading economic indicators have been rolling over for several months, since late last year. Markets would’ve never V-bottomed if it weren’t for the full bending over to the markets by Jerome and The Fed. Economic “green shoots” in China is a mirage, spurred short term by massive stimulus (8% of China’s GDP in January alone). Sure, unemployment numbers are “best ever”, but the true reading on that is more like 15% (don’t believe the official # or else I would like to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn). This year to date performance is a last hurrah, designed to bring back in the retail dumb money (as institutions de-risk and a final blowout for corporate buybacks, who have been the ONLY marginal buyer of equities this year). The Fed and global central banks see what is coming, and they are SCARED SHITLESS.

There are plenty of people who say the opposite.

And they use capitals too, because they’re absolutely certain.

That has little to do with the OP though. Sure demand for luxury goods will increase/decrease with the economy, but the overall wine auction market seems to have been catching up with what people will actually pay. The only reason I would buy at auction would be to save 30-40 percent off the lowest retail I can find, or because something is so absolutely rare that it’s not available anywhere. And in the latter case, I still lowball. If I can’t do well, I’m not interested.

The risk isn’t worth a savings of 20%. For other people that may not be the case. Anecdotally, people seem to be willing to pay close to retail. The auction houses are either getting smarter at pricing, or the buyers are getting stupider and are willing to pay retail prices at auctions.

Part of the problem is auction houses competing. There are only so many competitive terms to be negotiated when trying to land a collection. If two auction houses are offering zero seller’s premium, covering insurance, etc. then higher estimates becomes one of the only remaining points of competition. It’s very compelling for a lot of sellers to choose the highest estimate. That strategy can backfire, obviously.

Then there is that sellers are getting more price aware and insistent. Anecdotally, I have heard there’s a lot more push-back on estimates. Sellers won’t sign contracts until they’ve approved the reserves, and they see prices on WineSearcher and elsewhere and think they should not have to sell below those levels.

Just a couple of additional factors among many, to be sure.

Part of the problem is auction houses competing. There are only so many competitive terms to be negotiated when trying to land a collection.

Good point! They’re all over the place now.

I’ve certainly not been finding as many deals in the last few months. K&L doesn’t ship to my state though, even from auctions, so I’m a bit more limited.

This week’s zachys online auction had 500 lots with no bid as of Friday before they lowered reserves on most of them. Lots of relatively recent burgundy. Found some decent deals outside of the “best” vintages (ie 10/15 red and 14 white).

Have the NY auctions decreased in price by 10% to reflect sales tax?

I am adjusting my bids to take this into account. I thought prices were soft on the Acker online auction this weekend. The Zachy’s Zauction that closed yesterday appeared to be a disaster based on a quick look three hours before closing [UPDATE: Turns out I was looking at a different auction that was closing at a later date…sorry]. I thought it was only 130 lots though. saw very few with bids.

I think the sales tax issue is really hurting sales. You have to add 32% on top of the hammer price for an Acker bid now. Winebid is now about 27% (before it was 17%). Seems like a bad time to be a seller right now.

I’m always shocked that people are willing to pay retail prices at auction… and sometimes for case lots too. Do these people know something that I don’t?