Futures

Tasting notes, varietals, grapes - anything related to wine
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Ian Sutton
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Re: Futures

#51 Post by Ian Sutton » December 4th, 2018, 11:06 am

R. Frankel wrote:
December 3rd, 2018, 5:38 pm
James Stolle wrote:
December 3rd, 2018, 5:34 pm
I need to educate myself more on the typical times different wines can age. Any thoughts on a rough timeline list for a variety of wine?
This is a complex question because wine aging goodness is highly dependent on your subjective tastes/preferences. For example I’m drinking a 1996 Chablis tonight that I’m loving but many Chardonnay drinkers would not enjoy. Most premium European wine can age for decades if stored well.

Read my response above. My best advice is to buy older bottles and start drinking them.
I'd agree this suggestion, and the variety is but one factor amongst many.

Most critics cheat, and I rather applaud them for doing so. They don't taste a wine and think immediately it will be at peak between 2028 and 2033, or if they do then they're almost certainly bluffing. Instead they look at how prior vintages under that label matured and what the typical range was. Let's says that's on average 14-20 years from vintage. They'll then consider whether it's a sturdier 'vin de garde' style, or a more approachable but lacking depth etc. The former might have them move the range up to 20-30, the latter down to 8-12. Very much a Bayesian approach if you've ever studied statistics.

So you could do the same by looking at a wine you are interested in, using Cellartracker. See what the comments were for prior vintages, how people describe them at 5, 10, 15, 20+ years old. Get a feel for the change in flavour profile. It's not 'accurate', nothing is in our hobby (except for the grammar corrections [wink.gif] ), but I'd say this is at least as good as any critic for giving you a feel for what you're investing the cellar time in, and where the sweet spot sounds like. Then find out a little about the vintage and read the tasting notes already logged for that vintage. Are people suggesting it's a long ager, or one for drinking younger? Let that guide the drinking window you pencil in. I say pencil in, because wine can surprise either way, so don't feel overly bound by that drinking window, and use the 'recent notes by others on your wines' feature to keep tabs with what people are experiencing. Sometimes a couple of really positive notes are enough to inspire the opening of a bottle.

Regards
Ian

p.s. someone here did have a go at exactly the question you asked recently. I'm not sure how much traction the thread got, as the early responses IIRC were similar to what Rich said (and I agree with). Worth a look for it.
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Howard Cooper
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Re: Futures

#52 Post by Howard Cooper » December 4th, 2018, 1:58 pm

James Stolle wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 9:42 am
At this point, monte bello, but otherwise I have only purchased bordeaux futures. Any suggestions?
Howard Cooper wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 8:55 am
James Stolle wrote:
December 3rd, 2018, 2:08 pm
Domestic futures sold online?
What domestic futures are you buying that you plan to hold for 30 years?

Beyond Monte Bello, Montelena and a handful of others, what wines have this track record.
To me, the two California wines that sell futures and have a long track record of making outstanding wines that age for a very long time are Monte Bello and Chateau Montelena.

Other wines like Dunn and Forman also have a long track record for aging well, although I have less experience with these wines, but I am not familiar with these wines being sold as futures.
Howard

"That's what I do. I drink and I know things." Tyrion Lannister

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Howard Cooper
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Re: Futures

#53 Post by Howard Cooper » December 4th, 2018, 2:02 pm

Scott Fitzgerald wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 9:53 am

4. When in doubt, go with established producers which have a track record of good wines which age well.
I think this is a hugely important point. So many people want the latest and greatest winery - to be the guy who first identifies the next new thing. But, if you want to be safe when aging wines for a long time, you buy the classics - wines like Chateau Montelena and Ridge Monte Bello, like Montrose, Leoville las Cases, Leoville Barton, Ducru Beaucailloux, etc.
Howard

"That's what I do. I drink and I know things." Tyrion Lannister

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Howard Cooper
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Re: Futures

#54 Post by Howard Cooper » December 4th, 2018, 2:04 pm

R. Frankel wrote:
December 3rd, 2018, 5:32 pm
Look for UGC Tastings - they happen in NY and SF, probably other places.
Great idea. I have not seen a listing of the tastings (dates and sites) for this December - February. Does anyone have the list?

For Burgundy, one should attend http://www.lapaulee.com/
Howard

"That's what I do. I drink and I know things." Tyrion Lannister

James Stolle
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Re: Futures

#55 Post by James Stolle » December 4th, 2018, 2:16 pm

I had a Dunn Howell mountain recently that was excellent.
Howard Cooper wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 1:58 pm
James Stolle wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 9:42 am
At this point, monte bello, but otherwise I have only purchased bordeaux futures. Any suggestions?
Howard Cooper wrote:
December 4th, 2018, 8:55 am


What domestic futures are you buying that you plan to hold for 30 years?

Beyond Monte Bello, Montelena and a handful of others, what wines have this track record.
To me, the two California wines that sell futures and have a long track record of making outstanding wines that age for a very long time are Monte Bello and Chateau Montelena.

Other wines like Dunn and Forman also have a long track record for aging well, although I have less experience with these wines, but I am not familiar with these wines being sold as futures.

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Mark Golodetz
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Re: Futures

#56 Post by Mark Golodetz » December 5th, 2018, 5:57 am

I think the whole question of futures is interesting. 2015 and 2016 are the first time I have bought in bulk in twenty years, but I have been very specific, targeting properties which are both high in quality and low in output. Hence, most of my purchases are focussed on the Right Bank, and as my goal was partly a good return if nobody wanted to drink the wines, by definition I was looking for wines where I thought the price would increase. If you do decide to buy futures, those are the only wines you should focus on, because it makes no sense buying the wine now instead of two years from now or ten years from now at the same price.
ITB

James Stolle
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Re: Futures

#57 Post by James Stolle » December 5th, 2018, 7:57 am

Any recommendations for right bank wine futures?
Mark Golodetz wrote:
December 5th, 2018, 5:57 am
I think the whole question of futures is interesting. 2015 and 2016 are the first time I have bought in bulk in twenty years, but I have been very specific, targeting properties which are both high in quality and low in output. Hence, most of my purchases are focussed on the Right Bank, and as my goal was partly a good return if nobody wanted to drink the wines, by definition I was looking for wines where I thought the price would increase. If you do decide to buy futures, those are the only wines you should focus on, because it makes no sense buying the wine now instead of two years from now or ten years from now at the same price.

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Mark Golodetz
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Re: Futures

#58 Post by Mark Golodetz » December 5th, 2018, 8:55 am

No surprises, but I am afraid a little more than your budget. My earlier advice to find a local wine group still holds. Before I got into he business, this was how I learned about wine. Apart from meeting people who will know more than you and will share their knowledge, it is simple maths. When you bring a bottle, you get to taste ten or twelve at the same time. Same principle, the person who suggested you get to a UGC tasting in January was spot on, again a chance to hone your palate. Tasting before you buy will save you a ton of money in the end.

So my top wines Vieux Chateau Certan, Trotanoy, Conseillante and Figeac with a smattering of Lafleurs and Cheval Blancs.
ITB

James Stolle
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Re: Futures

#59 Post by James Stolle » December 5th, 2018, 10:37 am

I will try to find one in bend Oregon. Thanks. I’m probably going to up my budget as well

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Mark Golodetz
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Re: Futures

#60 Post by Mark Golodetz » December 5th, 2018, 11:57 am

Local wine shops are a good place to start.

And start a thread asking for fellow wine lovers on this board; you never know
ITB

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