What wines should you buy now before their prices explode.

I started a discussion on Monfortino after seeing huge increases in the secondary market for the 2010. There seem to have been an large number of wines recently that could be had reasonably cheaply and have recently doubled, tripled or quadrupled almost it seems overnight. I mentioned some in the thread, Engel, Truchot, Tremblay, Verset etc. So what other producers are going to take off?

If you are following the pattern, many of them are traditionalists, a few died recently and they are considered the top producers of their respective markets. My candidate would be Henri Bonneau, who seems to fit most if not all the criteria.

The two most obvious BDX would be Canon and Figeac (although Figeac is already pricey in 2016), I would think they will both be promoted at some point in the future

Peter Liem seems to think Ledru Champagne is heading that way since Marie-Noelle is retiring.

I’m loathe to suggest any, lest they become a self-fulfilling shopping list prophecy!

Certainly the ones at risk are the highly talked about and generally lauded around these parts, often the first ones named if anyone says “what should I try in XYZ region?”. In time this can risk they are the only ones named, because few of us have a breadth of knowledge in specific regions, and it’s easy to remember just 2-3 names that we end up repeating ourselves.

We saw a recent trend back towards tradition from a heavily oaked and fruit rich style, that’s arguably stronger internationally than in the home country of the wine itself (Barolo/Barbaresco come to mind). That saw a number of traditionalists seeing their prices catch up with the likes of (picking a few random names) Scavino, Clerico & Sandrone. Spotting the next trend might help, probably not natural wines, but maybe those actively reducing alcohol levels as is seen in Australia these days.

Predicting the ‘100 pointer’ from leading critics would help, as there is still very clearly an active flock of points followers that can double or triple the cost of a wine in a single vintage.

Then there is the elder statesman/woman, who have happily made fairly priced wines for decades, but a public recognition (as in the case of a knighted good trad Barolo producer) seems to grant them a huge boost. Plus when such a figure retires or dies, there can be an increase in demand for wines made by them.

Personally I’m keen to not get caught up in any ‘buy before it becomes too expensive’ hype, which seems to have caught Burg fans out, and Barolo/Barbaresco have seen similar hype recently. I’m not buying to resell, so the price I pay is what’s important, not how much it will be when I drink it. Time will undoubtedly make some wines I like, or would like to try, too expensive, but there will be plenty of other interesting wines, more than I’ll ever get close to tasting.

I suppose the one message I should take away, is if you like a wine, buy a few bottles of it. That might sound blindingly obvious, but I like tasting a broad range of wines (a vinous butterfly if you like), so sometimes I forget to go back an buy more of what I always find a joy to drink. With an intentionally limited space for wines, there is always compromise between the new and the familiar.

Regards
Ian

Vintage Sherry and maybe some of the VORS bottlings,
old bottles of Moscatel de Setubal,
high end Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol wines from Italy.

Hard to see how this thread is going to do anything good. Seems like it could A) encourage an investment/speculation approach to wine rather than a drinking/appreciation approach, B) be used by speculators to try to pump up the prices of specific wines, C) become a self-fulfilling prophecy by speeding up the process by which the under-the-radar wines we love gradually become unaffordable.

If you have a wine you love that’s affordable, buy it because you love it. If there’s a wine you don’t love that is currently affordable but which the internet says will soon appreciate in price, then invest in a Vanguard fund with a low load, because the change that price appreciation on a particular wine will outweigh the 25%+ transaction costs for a retail collector to store the wine and then sell in any volume is very small.

I agree with that first point, Marcus. This Board has buying power and pressure relative to small production wine. Look at Juge.

Good summary, Ian - I am in total agreement. I have given a few wines away as gifts but have never sold one as I only purchase what I intend to drink. (Although I may need to live to 120 yrs to do so.)

Henri Bonneau has already gotten hammered. I’m sure he can get even more pricey, but as Austin Powers says, that train has sailed.

I think that, as the rest of the world comes around to Riesling, GG is going to get pricier and pricier, following the lead of Keller and a handful of others that can easily command triple digit prices. Thankfully there’s a metric shit-ton made, and I’ll see all y’all in Wurtemberg if things start getting crazy.

A new generation of Northern Rhône producers is emerging rapidly, too, but I won’t name names.

Apothic Inferno.

Stop guilt tripping me

Yes. All the smart money should be rushing to buy rieslings. Definitely a better place to spend money than in bdx, piemont or burgundy, where prices are sure to crater. You heard it here first, investors and next-thing-seekers; this is where you should be investing.

Hahahaha. Mosel FTW!

But let’s be honest, I don’t think the OP question was about blue chip wines, nor about established regions and producers where the assumption is that there will be slow and steady growth. Yes the price of Gentaz and Truchot and Rougeard has risen sharply, but how many people are really out there in the market for those unicorns? and old Giacosa and Monfortino, like Clape and Allemand - also have become extremely pricey but aren’t exactly blue chips either, nor are they unicorns.

Old school Northern Rhône was cheap when no one cared and people only wanted Lala’s. For most of the early 20th century, As old menus and wine lists suggest, German Riesling was more expensive than some of the best Bordeaux and Burgundy. I’m not about to say we’re gonna by to get back to that point anytime soon. Smart money would be on 2014-2016 Pichon-Lalande, Figeac, etc. I ain’t smart money.

Hudelot-Noellat

Fourrier?

Now exactly how did you know that I was whispering, “Fu, Fu, FU,” as I typed this?

Who cares? I cannot even buy the wines mentioned by the lot of you now, I’m hardly going to keep up with wines that I can arbitrage!

Prices are already 2x what they were 4 years ago.

I can’t believe it took to the 20th post for somebody to say MACDONALD.

$50 for their Chambolle-Musgny is pretty cheap in comparison to other well-known producers.