CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER Issued this statement today…
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
WATERS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN STRONG WARMING. SEA SURFACE TEMP (SST)
ANOMALIES ARE NOW UP TO 1.5 DEG C IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION…
WHICH IS BORDERING ON MODERATE/STRONG LEVELS.
OVER THE DESERTS WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE ALSO
OBSERVED THE PAST FEW WEEKS at LOWER LEVELS WITH EASTERLY ANOMALIES AT 200K
FEET INDICATIVE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOW SHOWING A GOOD RESPONSE TO
THE ON GOING EL NINO.
WITH THIS RECENT SST WARMING…THE SUB-TROPICAL JET COULD BECOME
MORE ACTIVE IN 2 - 4 WEEKS RESULTING IN MORE TROUGHING/STORMINESS AND
POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION FOR CA and AZ -
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE AT http://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
As a weather “enthusiast” I’ve been comparing this to the same reports from the 97-98 El Nino season and we have nearly identical numbers. We do need the rain here over the winter, there’s no doubt about that, but we could do without the floods that we saw in early 98.
Well, I hope CA gets a lot of rain this year–we have a huge deficit to make up. But I wouldn’t want to live in an area below some of the recent, massive brush fires.
What we actually need to combat the drought is a lot of snow in the Sierras. But it is very difficult to do much about a drought with one good year of precipitation. We need several years in a row unfortunately. One this will do in relation to the fires is create a lot of new brush growth which means fuel at the end of next summer.
Rain here = snow there, but yes pretty much what you say is spot on, although new growth isn’t as likely to burn. It’s the old dead dried up growth that hasn’t burnt in 20 or 30 years that causes the most problems.
Getting significant rainfall this winter will wash away salt accumulation from groundwater and other sources that have been accumulating during the drought.
We normally see 10-12" in a winter, average in El Nino is around 18-20", but there are EN years where rainfall actually falls below average.
Washing down the soil profile will allow the vines to recoup and likely produce a slightly larger crop in subsequent vintages, and also will be able to take up water and nutrients more efficiently.
Big El Nino years tend to be dry here in Oregon, wet in CA. The storms we get move south and dump rain in the coast and valleys and snow in the Sierra. Think winter of '82-'83. Record snows in Tahoe that year. Those next vintages tend to be dry and warm up here, cool and wet in CA. '83 is a great example. Tough in Napa, classic in the Willamette Valley. '88 (or was it '89?) is similar. Same with '93 and then '98, when it rained on my May 11 birthday for the first time in my CA-bred life. That’s all very generally speaking, but it should be interesting to see how things play out. That said, I think '98 is underrated in Napanoma. Depends on what you’re looking for perhaps. Probably not great conditions for massively intense cabernet for example. But if I’ve learned anything in my 9+ years up here, a little rain in the growing season and even near harvest is nothing to worry about.
