My last Bordeaux futures purchase was 2009. Since then, I haven’t seen any economic advantage to tying up the money for the wines I want. I don’t need large or small formats and I don’t seem to have any problems finding what I want when the wines arrive in the U.S.
OTOH, I see nothing wrong with locking in some purchases if you know what you want and you are satisfied with the futures prices.
I had sworn off of futures many moons ago, but must admit, I like some of the pricing in the 2014 Classified Growths. Would be the third recent vintage where I can pick up Talbot, for example, at or around $40.
You should be looking at futures for a couple reasons.
I’d be willing to wager this only happens if the exchange rate goes back to 1.3-1.5.
Where is the best resource for checking out prices and release dates please
Im interested in few of the well known releases but also a couple more that are still main stream but not to the fore
Yes, I’ll I’ve gotten so far are 2-12 packs of 375s for daily drinkers. These are typically pretty hard to find later.
Well maybe. First let me say that I’m not a futures buyer so for me this is academic. I think the operative question is are you comfortable paying the prices offered. What is the probability the price will decline further ? What’s the corresponding upside risk ? If I were in the market I’d be buying the top wines now to lock in the value. If the price declines 10 percent I’d be ok with that. I think there’s a significantly higher risk of up side appreciation. Plus with continuing QE in Europe and China in the doldrums, I think these factors could turn in favor of Bordeaux.
There’s a tendency when prices trend down to think it will continue just as when things are going up that this is a permanent trend. When oil was $45 “experts” predicted $30. That’s when I knew the price was going up. Just my opinion of course.
A few more Pre-Arrival prices showing up on K&L. I’m sure I’ll be buying a couple bottles of the 2014 Cantemerle, but the 2014 Calon Segur seems to be very well received, and seems like an interesting proposition at $63. K&L is a few dollars more than some other east coast retailers, but given their consistency in delivering and proximity in shipping it might be the best bet still. I understand that Calon Segur was sold and has been under new ownership for a few years, is this still an honest wine?
Are there any thoughts on the Futures being offered by Total Wine? I have been buying from the same local retailer for years but I like the 50% now 50% on release idea that Total Wine seems to be pushing. Any reasons why they would not deliver on their promises when the wines are released?
I also would be interested to hear from anyone who’s tasted the recent Caoln Segur vintages regarding style.
Taylor, I’m curious - are the prices quoted with tax included? Talbot is on sale here at 35€ before tax, which works out at 42€ more or less tax included. Compared to the 08 at EP, for example, that’s an increase of 44%. Of course I don’t know what the dollar price was like back in 08, probably more, so I expect I’m off target, but it does make me wonder why it’s good value?
I’m wary of giving EP advice, since it does depend on the retail system where each of us lives, but if shop prices haven’t shown increases on EP in the last few years, I’m not sure why they would in 2017? How are older vintage prices shaping up?
An interesting article on 2014 Futures from Wine Spectator:
Not including tax Julian. Sales tax in California varies, but is about 8.5-8.75%. So figure about $43.60 all-in (before shipping). There are some retailers on the east coast offering the 2014 Talbot for about $38 pre-tax, so there’s a little bit more savings there. As for the value, well, past years EP offers have obviously sailed. If you’re looking for back-vintages you’re around $63 for the 2008 with limited availability in the US (Per Winesearcher Free, not Pro). So the reality is if you’re looking for a good quality vintage of Bordeaux then 2014 EP is simply the most affordable. People may appropriate more value for older vintages and that’s certainly fair, but some of us are younger collectors, so it may work out differently.
I certainly understand the logic for collectors on the high end, but for your average consumer (and I’ll include myself in that category), it’s not at all apples to apples. I’m looking at buying 2014 Calon Segur, for example. The lowest Wine-Searcher Free price I can find for the 2010 Calon Segur is $100 at HDH. Same price for the 2009 from the same retailer. The 2014 Lynch Bages is $85, lowest 2009/2010? $160/$122 ($170 on K&L) respectively. Maybe for retailers they’re looking at the stock on hand, but quite honestly despite the acclaim of the 2009 and 2010 vintages I’m just not able to be a buyer. So 2014 offers something that hasn’t been available for some years. A good to very good quality vintage of Bordeaux at an affordable price.
Julian… It does not matter what the 2008 sold for 6 years ago. That has zero relevancy. That was a lifetime ago. The value is measured against what the previous vintages of similar quality are selling for today. FWIW, at least in my opinion, 2014 Talbot is a better wine than the 2008 as well. That does not necessarily make it worth buying as a future, but that gives you a fair measure of its worth in today’s marketplace.
Pat… If you’re interested, you can see my notes on 2014 Calon Segur here: http://www.thewinecellarinsider.com/2015/04/2014-st-estephe-wine-tasting-notes-ratings-vintage-report
Taylor - buying EP is fun anyway, just knowing that you’ve got bottles arriving from source, so I’m not knocking the idea of doing so. A bird in the hand, etc…
Julian… It does not matter what the 2008 sold for 6 years ago. That has zero relevancy. That was a lifetime ago.
Well if you say so, Jeff, you must of course be right. Just like you were about other EP campaigns which have proved such remarkably good value. Remember 05?
It’s generally accepted that the last EP campaign to provide a decent deal was 08, (even if subsequent price drops meant that apart from the usual small output estates, it didn’t really work out that way). So of course it’s relevant, and even applying your own criteria, the benchmark more than stands up - the current auction price here for Talbot 08 is 33€…even if the 2014 is as good as you suggest, is it seriously 30% better than a wine in bottle, which you can try before loading up with, as opposed to an embryonic sample which may or may not resemble the finished article?
Once again, I’m very much aware that my retail reality is not anyone else’s, but I can’t help wondering how long it will be before an enterprising US merchant snaps up back vintages, taking full advantage of the exchange rate…
As I mentioned before, the 14 EP clear demonstrates that Bordeaux learned that the US market matters the most, Haut Brion lowered the first tranche price in Euro to account for the stronger Euro against dollar compared to when the Mouton was released.
BTW, IMO the 14 Rauzan Segla is the most compelling wine to buy.
I was going to post the WS article here as well, but obviously it’s already posted. I’m a little shocked that the customer base is yawning at pricing, as I’m salivating, and planning to buy at least a case of futures, plus waiting to see if the Firsts go cheap at any time.
I remember giggling when I saw the title of Jancis Robinson’s email in mid-April about Bordeaux:
“Bordeaux 2014 a damp squib”
This Bordeaux market is crazy cyclical.
I will be all over larrivet haut Brion