Am I, are we, paying too much for great Napa cab?

I am always reading posts where people are jumping off of California Napa cab lists or not buying what they used to from past favorite producers. Are we paying too much these days? I have been into wine for four years now and have felt the pinch. I am still buying though because i dont remember the “golden years” of cheap cases of great Napa cab. I can buy 2, 3, 4 bottles of these higher end wines and hope some may still be there in five years. You old timers bought these by the cases in the 70’s and 80’s and still have a few around.

So are these prices and jumps justified? Does andy beckstoffer pay mortgage on his vineyards these days? Is it just a money grab at this point? And are we being fleeced?

I like the wines i am buying from Napa and i am paying between $75 and $200. Next year we will see more jumps i am certain. When does this bubble burst?

If you have to ask, you probably are.

Back in the day I went to Heitz to buy his '74 Martha’s (for then a whopping $550 a case) and all Joe wanted to do was talk about his walnut trees(maybe because his son actually made the '74 while Joe was in the hospital?). Back then $50 a bottle was off the charts for a bottle of Calif. wine, but Joe didn’t seem to care. “You want it, that’s what it costs.”

At about the same time Mouton '82 futures was $50 and Petrus '82 was $100. Outrageous! Guess what? Those were the good old days. When one buys wine, one is buying a lot more than .75 liters of grape juice and wine producers have figured that out. It’s ego pills and there’s no price limit on that.

Stan, that’s a great story. I hope you have some of those Martha’s left. Trouble is, none of the $150 and up wines of today is that 74 Martha’s. They are not going to turn into the same wine. They might be enjoyable to someone who likes the big, bold style of today’s Napa Cab. If so, buy them (but I would argue paying more than about $125-150 is silly, and even that is an expensive bottle) - but they aren’t going to become the next '74 Martha’s, or 87 Montelena, etc.

What is the old joke about poker? If you can’t spot the sucker at the table, you’re it.

I think there is still value in many Napa Valley cabs, but you have to look past the 99 pt wines etc. You might also look at Sonoma County and at Eastern Washington.

I remember when Joe Heitz was selling his '68 Martha’s for $11. Warren Winiarski’s wife Barbara told me Joe was her hero, because he was the first to sell Napa Cab for more than $10.

I asked Joe if he thought he had priced it too high; he said he was giving it away. At the same 70 Mouton sold for around$45.
A wholesaler friend bought so many '82 Petrus futures that when he flipped them he did not have to work for three years.

If you feel you are getting value for money, keep on. I cant justify spending that much on a bottle but I am not the market for such wine. But if you are feeling “Fleeced”, maybe you should reconsider your purchases. Are you enjoying these wines? Are you hoping to make some money in the future? Are you buying what you think will impress others? Do you drink them? It seems that for being into wine for four years, you have jumped into the deep end with not much experience. Maybe a drop into the next lower level may bring you more enjoyment.

Probably, but many more are paying too much for not so great Napa cab.

You might be, but I’m not.
I can count the number of California cab blends I bought in the last 10 years on 1 hand.

Yes.

Yep…

!2 or 13 MacDonald might be something really special in a generation.

Glenn, you’re right, I painted too broadly with that brush. I have no doubt there are a few wines out there that will be special, but the majority of high-priced Napa Cabs are pretty much as good as they are going to be young. That may very well be good enough to command the prices for some people, it was just a comparison to the “old days”. I have not had the pleasure of tasting a MacDonald, but given that I like what Detert does, I’m sure you are right.

Seems like the market is bearing most of the current prices…so no.

I’m fortunate enough to work for a winery who sells out pretty much every release, so the laws of economics say the wine is underpriced (I’m not here representing this winery, I’m here on my own time of my own interest).

Sadly enough there is nowhere else in the world you can get Cab in this style, and Napa knows this. They aren’t making any more acres of land in that little valley (although global warming may have something to say about this soon.) Paso doesn’t cut it. Washington doesn’t cut it. Bordeaux is great but doesn’t scratch the same itch. You’d think Australia could do it with the climate they have and their track record in ripe Syrah but not yet… or at least nobody is willing to import them. One thing I have yet to try are the Super Tuscans, but I imagine they will be more like Bordeaux.

I probably am at a price point that is too high for me. But these are 2013’s and i made a decision to go big for that vintage. So 2014 vintage will bring me back down a bit. My favorite Napa cab is actually about $105 and my second is about $120, $88 on beserkerday. Id love to fill my cellar with these but will they last 5, 10 and 20 years from now? On top of this, they are seeing price changes too. I may get priced out eventually.

It is really hard to know whether you are paying too much. What are you buying?

There are excellent California Cabernet that are lower in price but it really depends on what you want. Frankly, the best buys in Cabernet I have seeing these days is the occasional older (like around 1989) Bordeaux.

Joe, just remember that there will always be new and interesting wines. Always. Some of the sought-after producers of today will fade in glory, new ones will emerge. Fabulous wines are made at all price points - to me, it’s actually more fun and interesting to find the good wines that aren’t the latest high fliers. And the most important thing is to find the wines you like, not the ones that Parker, Galloni, or some other critic likes.

See the current Aussie thread.

If you look at the price of fine wine relative to earnings it is generally more affordable now than its ever been, a good bottle of Napa cab is not that bad at $125 when most households here are earning well over six figures. Compare to a $40 thirty years ago when i bet your salary was way less than 30% of what it is today

Joe… What do you mean by justified? It’s a simple case of supply and demand. You do not HAVE to buy some wines. It is a CHOICE. You used the term “Great Napa Cab” in your title. There is a finite amount of great Cab. And if people with more money are willing to pay more than you, I get that it sucks, but that’s just life.

Does andy beckstoffer pay mortgage on his vineyards these days?

He is in a business to make money. If he eventually charges too much for his product, it won’t sell and prices will come down.

Is it just a money grab at this point?

At this point? Prices are up because people are willing to pay it. Yes, a lot of wine does not sell. Those wineries are charging what they wish the market will bear, and that is their problem.

When does this bubble burst?

When the supply overshadows the demand. For really great wines, that is probably not for a while. For the growers that want to charge what their neighbors charge simply because they think they can, I would think and hope, sooner than later.