2014 Bordeaux Futures

I know Bordeaux right now might be “untragically un-hip” to borrow a phrase from another thread, but it’s still something I find pleasure in and want in my cellar. Looking at some of the prices for the 2014 futures so far I see an opportunity to purchase a number of wines, particularly classified growths, at prices I haven’t seen in some time. I realize there will probably be a chorus of posters saying to hold off on futures because they expect prices will be the same or less once they arrive in bottle but honestly, I’m not so convinced. Perhaps the wines arrive at similar pricing, but by most accounts this seems to be a good quality vintage and I’d rather not pass up on producers I like at prices I see value in right now.

So for those also interested in buying 2014 futures, what are you looking at right now and where are you buying? I’m still waiting for the release of some pricing for properties like Leoville Barton, Grand Puy Lacoste and Domaine de Chevalier, but at the moment I’m looking at Talbot ($40), d’Armailhac (<$35) and Clerc-Milon (~$48). I’ve been purchasing some 2014 Sauternes like Coutet and Doisy Daene, but haven’t really made any other purchases thus far.

There are a number of producers like Langoa-Barton and Ormes de Pez that I’ve yet to try but could be interesting value propositions. Any recommendations outside First and Second growths out there that could deliver value, particularly in the vein of traditional Bordeaux?

I drink more bdx than anything else, and I came pretty close to buying a couple of wines, but couldn’t bring myself to push the “buy” button. I don’t need the wines, and I am not confident the prices today are really any better than they’ll be when the wines arrive.

Happy to see at least some moderation in price levels though

Honest question: would you expect Chateau Talbot to be less than $40 (JJBuckley) when it arrives? It’s less expensive than bottled prices or pre-arrival prices for anything from 2011-2013. I just don’t see a scenario where it shows up for $35 in 2017/18. B-21 in Florida is offering Talbot for $38. I think that’s entirely fair for a good quality vintage, even if it’s not a great one.

I’m with you Taylor. If I were into Bordeaux I’d be snapping these up. First growth for $300 per ? Classified growth under $100 ? Beautiful. Good vintage too no ? Remember these were priced with the dollar at $1.1 or so. How much more downside risk is there for the Euro ? Sometimes you have to be happy with the deal

The real question is whether it seems like a fair value. Is it possible that they could be a few dollars less when they arrive? Conceivable, maybe. However would you feel shortchanged if you purchased some of these wines at $40-60? I wouldn’t. I think it’s a sure thing, barring the collapse of the Euro, that many of these will arrive stateside at least $10-20+ more than their pre-arrival price.

Everyone was hoping for a larger overall correction in classified Bordeaux pricing. However, if one takes a look at the pricing of some of these wines, there is a lot to like. I think Talbot at $40 is a good price, and it is one I am strongly considering. Like many, I’m waiting on the pricing of a number of chateau before making any decisions. At this stage, I’m positive I’ll be buying some 2014 EP, but how much and which producers isn’t yet clear to me.

Whether you want to put money down on futures versus buy them in one or two years is a different matter. Personally, I very much doubt we’ll see widespread drops in pricing some what we are now seeing. Sure, there will be some closeout sales (e.g.) but if you want specific chateau and the pricing is appealing to you, why wait?

I might be interested in half bottles. I am running low on Bordeaux in 375ml. There’s too much in 750ml all over the place to get excited about those.

“If it’s a fair value to you, and you want it, go for it” is an unassailable argument.

OTOH – every single vintage for the last 5 years has arrived stateside at prices lower than EP. Could be different this time, but the trend is against it. Predicting the future is a dicey business though, no doubt!

For me, a combination of full cellar, fried credit cards, general strategy to backfill older vintages when I have room, and annoyance with my last few EP buys landing stateside cheaper than I paid years earlier, means that I will wait. But I will say that these prices seem reasonably attractive, especially compared to California cabs/blends of similar quality. Yes, I know they’re not identical, or even great substitutes for each other, but these wines scratch similar itches for me. At these prices I’m starting to think “hmm, what would that $75 I’m thinking of dropping on a Cali cab get me in Bordeaux?”

I bit on lynch bages at $78. Waiting on Lalande. Pichon baron was ok at $85 but not enough for me to drive in yet.

It just seems that a lot of the estates mentioned in this thread, that there’s never a problem finding them years later. And one might get a chance to taste them first, perhaps. Maybe that doesn’t matter since people have familiarity with them.

The futures argument would make more sense (to me) if it was something like wanting Carmes Haut Brion, VCC, Trotanoy in large format or something. And only then, from vendors with some reputation for delivering.

I’m not a buyer of Bordeaux, but I think you’re logic is good. Prices I’ve seen seem pretty good, in relative terms, and who knows what the future will bring for the dollar. I’d say this is as good an opportunity as there has been for a while, if you think the vintage is worthy. Worst case? You might see a few wines for a few dollars less, but the likelihood is it will be a wash, or you’ll come out ahead. I’d go for it if I was inclined to buy Bordeaux. And a suggestion: don’t skimp. Don’t buy the “lesser” wines because they are even cheaper. Do it right, and extend yourself to the higher end wines. You’ll be thankful in the future.

+1

great advice Alan. The lesser wines rarely appreciate like the top ones.

Reading your post, I think you are goIng to be much upset if you don’t buy and prices go up than if you do buy and prices go down a bit - you can always buy more. So, go for it.

And one might get a chance to taste them first, perhaps. Maybe that doesn’t matter since people have familiarity with them.

Yeah but familiarity doesn’t clue you in to the vintage. Tasting the 2011, 12, 13 and 14 side by side from the same chateau shows that 2014 is the better vintage, even when tasted as tannic barrel samples. If I were interested in buying Bordeaux, I’d buy the 2014s. But I"m not interested in paying for the top growths. $300 a bottle is only reasonable if you were offered the same wine for $350. There are very few wines worth that IMHO, and I’ve yet to have a Bordeaux that is. Sub $100 though, I think there’s a lot to like if you shop carefully.

I’m seriously considering biting on a mixed-case myself. Prices are decent. Classified growths like Talbot, d’Armailhac, Giscours, La Lagune, Kirwan are all sub-$40. Plus, Sociando Mallet, Meyney and Poujeaux can be had for around $25.

Sound advice. I bought futures from '86-'09. In '10 I bought on release. Didn’t but any '11-'13. Even though I probably (surely) have more Bdx than I’ll be able to drink, I’m still seeing some value in the '14’s. I myself am very tempted by the '14 Talbot @ $40. I’m waiting for some of the bigger non trophy’s to be released, like GPL and Leoville P & B before I jump in…

From reading some reviews, and looking at prices, this is the kind of year to step out and buy some big boys. La Mission looks tempting.

38 this year, getting too old for buying Bordeaux… :wink:

I was tempted with six bottles of Pensee but decided against it.

Damn, I’m feeling really old right now. [cheers.gif]